AlexGreen#20 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Looking at the top 75 WRs in the league by receiving yards and comparing it to 40 time. Number of WRs in each 40 time bucket: Of the top 75: 4.29+: 2 4.39-4.30: 18 4.49-4.40: 28 4.59-4.50: 23 4.69-4.60: 4 + Of the top 50: 4.29+: 1 4.39-4.30: 11 4.49-4.40: 20 4.59-4.50: 15 4.69-4.60: 3 + Of the top 25: 4.29+: 1 4.39-4.30: 7 4.49-4.40: 8 4.59-4.50: 8 4.69-4.60: 1 +++ Average 40 time of WRs with 1500+ yards: 4.54 Average 40 time of WRs with 1200+ yards: 4.46 Average 40 time of WRs with 1001-1200 yards: 4.45 Average 40 time of WRs with 801-1000 yards: 4.47 Average 40 time of WRs with 601-800 yards: 4.48 Average 40 time of WRs with 0-600 yards: 4.46 +++ Median 40 time of Top 10 WRs: 4.45 Median 40 time of 11-20: 4.50 Median 40 time of 21-30: 4.46 Median 40 time of 31-40: 4.48 Median 40 time of 41-50: 4.49 Median 40 time of 51-60: 4.49 Median 40 time of 61-70: 4.44 Median 40 time of 66-75: 4.46 TLDR: 40 time doesn't matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodestar Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 25 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Looking at the top 75 WRs in the league by receiving yards and comparing it to 40 time. Number of WRs in each 40 time bucket: Of the top 75: 4.29+: 2 4.39-4.30: 18 4.49-4.40: 28 4.59-4.50: 23 4.69-4.60: 4 + Of the top 50: 4.29+: 1 4.39-4.30: 11 4.49-4.40: 20 4.59-4.50: 15 4.69-4.60: 3 + Of the top 25: 4.29+: 1 4.39-4.30: 7 4.49-4.40: 8 4.59-4.50: 8 4.69-4.60: 1 +++ Average 40 time of WRs with 1500+ yards: 4.54 Average 40 time of WRs with 1200+ yards: 4.46 Average 40 time of WRs with 1001-1200 yards: 4.45 Average 40 time of WRs with 801-1000 yards: 4.47 Average 40 time of WRs with 601-800 yards: 4.48 Average 40 time of WRs with 0-600 yards: 4.46 +++ Median 40 time of Top 10 WRs: 4.45 Median 40 time of 11-20: 4.50 Median 40 time of 21-30: 4.46 Median 40 time of 31-40: 4.48 Median 40 time of 41-50: 4.49 Median 40 time of 51-60: 4.49 Median 40 time of 61-70: 4.44 Median 40 time of 66-75: 4.46 TLDR: 40 time doesn't matter. Aren’t there also… way more guys running 4.40+? What happens if you do this exercise proportionally? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green19 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 42 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Looking at the top 75 WRs in the league by receiving yards and comparing it to 40 time. Number of WRs in each 40 time bucket: Of the top 75: 4.29+: 2 4.39-4.30: 18 4.49-4.40: 28 4.59-4.50: 23 4.69-4.60: 4 + Of the top 50: 4.29+: 1 4.39-4.30: 11 4.49-4.40: 20 4.59-4.50: 15 4.69-4.60: 3 + Of the top 25: 4.29+: 1 4.39-4.30: 7 4.49-4.40: 8 4.59-4.50: 8 4.69-4.60: 1 +++ Average 40 time of WRs with 1500+ yards: 4.54 Average 40 time of WRs with 1200+ yards: 4.46 Average 40 time of WRs with 1001-1200 yards: 4.45 Average 40 time of WRs with 801-1000 yards: 4.47 Average 40 time of WRs with 601-800 yards: 4.48 Average 40 time of WRs with 0-600 yards: 4.46 +++ Median 40 time of Top 10 WRs: 4.45 Median 40 time of 11-20: 4.50 Median 40 time of 21-30: 4.46 Median 40 time of 31-40: 4.48 Median 40 time of 41-50: 4.49 Median 40 time of 51-60: 4.49 Median 40 time of 61-70: 4.44 Median 40 time of 66-75: 4.46 TLDR: 40 time doesn't matter. Then why measure it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Lodestar said: Aren’t there also… way more guys running 4.40+? What happens if you do this exercise proportionally? Yes we need to see what percentage of all WRs fall into each category so we have context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Will be interesting to see his numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NFLGURU Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 (edited) How in the hell does top TE Trey McBride of Colorado St have 90 catches for 1121 yards, and 1 TD last season???? Edited April 12, 2022 by NFLGURU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 6 hours ago, Arthur Penske said: Seems like Packers are doing their work on the Wisconsin dudes Players from any WI college or players that are from WI originally in HS don't count against the top 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Green19 said: Then why measure it? To prove that it doesn't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWhitehurst Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 (edited) Fwiw, I can't believe I'm saying this, but after finally watching the highlights of C Tyler Linderbaum, that kid is so good that if he is still sitting there at #22, you at very least cry that you can't take him because your WR corps was empty. If that wasn't the case, I'd take that guy and move Myers to OG because he is that good. Quentin Nelson level good, well, at least for a move scheme being only 290lbs currently. Edited April 12, 2022 by DWhitehurst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green19 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: To prove that it doesn't matter But it does… it’s just the threshold you are dealing with. I doubt there are any 6.0 40s at the WR position in the nfl. So there is a threshold of “mattering”. Running 4.3 or 4.4 or 4.5 isn’t really a strong predictor for NFL success… but if you don’t run better then I’m assuming 5.0 it’s likely you aren’t a WR in the nfl. Deeper than that your data on 40s help you have better odds predicting on guys. From your numbers I should avoid the extremes: the stupid fast guys (likely because they win purely based on speed in college and in the league everyone is only separate by .1 or .2 second, so your technique matters)…. And the slowest (because ultimately you need speed in the league). The sweet spot is 4.3-4.59… if a guy runs in between that you’re good to look at the other metrics, that prospect isn’t removed from the draft board based on 40. So it matters… it’s just as an evaluator it’s a poor argument to say Wilson is a better prospect over Burks because he ran 4.38 compare to 4.55. That difference won’t matter in the nfl. Fact is the 40s matters… it’s why they measure it. They don’t put these guys in pools and time laps… because that truly doesn’t matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NFLGURU Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, DWhitehurst said: Fwiw, I can't believe I'm saying this, but after finally watching the highlights of C Tyler Linderbaum, that kid is so good that if he is still sitting there at #22, you at very least cry that you can't take him because your WR corps was empty. If that wasn't the case, I'd take that guy and move Myers to OG because he is that good. Quentin Nelson level good. I don't know how he does it at 290lbs, but he does. Amazing. I've seen that mentioned in a couple of places. Linderbaum is a great center, the concern with him is his arm length. He certainly is great at angles and leverage, having said that, twitter might explode if Gute took a center at 22. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 I'm intrigued by David Bell, 6'2'', 205lbs in the 3rd or 4th round. Cosell gushes about his technique, how advanced it is and uses Anquan Boldin as a comp in terms of someone who didn't run well but who was 'good' in the league for quite a while. Bell ran a 4.65 40 yard time and 33inch vertical, with a 7.14 3 cone time. So probably doesn't meet many athletic thresholds, 4.01 RAS. He reminds me in some ways, in terms of profile to Quintin Cephus, 6'1'', 208lbs, who was also athletically limited, 4.65 RAS, 4.73 40 yard time, 38.5 vertical, 7.2 3 cone time, a guy I really liked when watching play and he has done alright since being drafted by the Lions in the 5th round a couple of years back. He had 349 yards as a rookie, with a 17.5 yard average and was on track for a good season in 2021 before injury, 204 yards in 5 games. I wonder how much superior technique trumps athletic profile and how far you can push the thresholds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 5 hours ago, Brit Pack said: I'm intrigued by David Bell, 6'2'', 205lbs in the 3rd or 4th round. Cosell gushes about his technique, how advanced it is and uses Anquan Boldin as a comp in terms of someone who didn't run well but who was 'good' in the league for quite a while. Bell ran a 4.65 40 yard time and 33inch vertical, with a 7.14 3 cone time. So probably doesn't meet many athletic thresholds, 4.01 RAS. He reminds me in some ways, in terms of profile to Quintin Cephus, 6'1'', 208lbs, who was also athletically limited, 4.65 RAS, 4.73 40 yard time, 38.5 vertical, 7.2 3 cone time, a guy I really liked when watching play and he has done alright since being drafted by the Lions in the 5th round a couple of years back. He had 349 yards as a rookie, with a 17.5 yard average and was on track for a good season in 2021 before injury, 204 yards in 5 games. I wonder how much superior technique trumps athletic profile and how far you can push the thresholds. What I've read about Bell is his short area quickness too. Apparently does a good job separating with his feet at the line of scrimmage. Haven't watched much of his "tape" (i.e. YouTube videos) to confirm but he could be one of those guys who plays a lot better than he tests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Matt Alkire - Two Round Mock 22 – Green Bay – Treylon Burks, WR Arkansas - While I’m not sure how good of a fit this is, and by that I don’t know if it fits at all, Green Bay has to get some talent in there at wide receiver and Treylon Burks represents and immense amount of raw talent. 28 – Green Bay – Tyler Smith, OT Tulsa - Green Bay needs a left tackle of the future and Tyler Smith is a player that really gives them some attitude and athleticism. I think you grab him now and let him learn for a while, and if there are injuries he’s ready to come in and contribute. 53 – Green Bay – Josh Paschal, 5T Kentucky - Paschal has outstanding film and from what I’ve been told, he’s about as clean off the field as you can possibly get. To me, that’s what Green Bay is looking for and they could use some help in the trenches. DeMarvin Leal has a higher grade from me with his upside, but I’m not messing around with that if I’m the Packers. 59 – Green Bay – Troy Andersen, LB Montana State - Again, looking at Green Bay’s depth chart I’m just going to take it upon myself to make this pick. Troy Andersen has an insane athletic profile and, well, the guys playing inside for the Packers could be upgraded. WR Watch....... 8 – Atlanta – Jameson Williams, WR Alabama 10 – NY Jets – Drake London, WR USC 13 – Houston – Garrett Wilson, WR Ohio State 17 – LA Chargers – Chris Olave, WR Ohio State 39 – Chicago – Christian Watson, WR NDSU 42 – Indianapolis – Jahan Dotson, WR Penn State 44 – Cleveland – George Pickens, WR Georgia 47 – Washington – John Metchie III, WR Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEagle Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 (edited) Who is Matt Alkire? I’d be disappointed in that haul. I don’t see Tyler Smith as a first round talent. He can’t handle speed rushers, so I see him moving to OG. I’d rather get S, DT, or even a 2nd WR than an off ball LB who will be on the field for less than 50% of the snaps—especially one that is so raw. Edited April 12, 2022 by TheEagle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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