Green19 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) 38 minutes ago, Scoremore said: Who's upset? Value is value. Olave and Wilson will be ranked ahead of Pierce Watson and Pickens on the Packers board. They are better players. It's quite possible all the top tier players will be gone before the Packers pick. Also possible if the board isn't going the way they like they could gulp trade up to land one of the top guys. Watson, Pierce, and Pickens sure anyone of them would be welcome. If they go that route they would probably attempt to trade back from #28 to the early second round to land one of the second tier guys. Could put Dotson in this group as well. Again value is value. They may target a guy but it doesn't mean they have to reach either. Most scouts will have similar rankings on the receivers. Class is deep so the Packers will have plenty of opportunities to add. We need a guy that can separate on short and intermediate routes and a guy that can stretch the field. You don’t know this and can’t just state this as though it’s a fact. You will have to wait until they literally draft one of them while the others are on the board. ** you may not agree with him but Chris simms did his top 5 WRs for the class and talked to people in the league he knows… his top 5 is: williams watson pierce burks london He asked his league sources to fight him on his list… he said no one pushed back on it, they said it’s solid. He was expecting people to jump on him about Pierce… they didn’t. He has Olave and Wilson at like 6 and 7. So yeah… people don’t just have the Ohio state guys tops in this draft. People look at this stuff differently. Edited March 31, 2022 by Green19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoremore Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, Green19 said: You don’t know this and can’t just state this as though it’s a fact. You will have to wait until they literally draft one of them while the others are on the board. ** you may not agree with him but Chris simms did his top 5 WRs for the class and talked to people in the league he knows… his top 5 is: williams watson pierce burks london He asked his league source to fight him on his list… he said no one pushed back on it said it’s solid. He was expecting people to jump on him about Pierce… they didn’t. He has Olave and Wilson at like 6 and 7. So yeah… people don’t just have the Ohio state guys tops in this draft. People look at this stuff differently. Watson as the #2? Yah no sorry. Whatever we'll see come draft day how they come off the board. Guessing the 2 Ohio state WR's will both be gone by the time the Packers pick. London will most likely be gone also. Possible on Williams. Rumor is Burks is sliding. Pierce he's got the measurables but needs work on his route running. He's a mid 2nd rounder at best. Same for Watson. https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/WR/1/2022 Nice breakdown of the WR's. Several sites have very similar rankings. Always surprises but Simms might be the only one I know of to rank them that way. Consensus is Wilson, Williams, Olave, Burks and London in the top 5. It's nearly universal. Always surprises beauty is in the eye of the beholder but no one that I have seen has either Pierce or Watson ranked ahead of Wilson and Olave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEagle Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, pacman5252 said: Age is part of it. Weston will be 25 this year. With that said, I think Watson is the most overrated WR in the draft. The guy didn’t really produce for ndsu. Pre combine, he was mocked third round (70-100). That grade was all premised on him being a raw athlete which he confirmed. Combines don’t bump you 40-50 slots. He has “too raw athlete”(Mims/Stephon Hill) written all over him. Have you watched NDSU? They run it like it's the 1960s. Watson had 800 receiving yards. The next highest on the team was 284 receiving yards by Phoenix Sproles. 284! Watson did what he could within the confines of that offense. They ran the ball 700 times and threw it 255 times. Most of the teams for these other WRs threw the ball close to 500 times. 800 receiving yards doesn't look bad in that context (basically, a half season worth of pass attempts for most teams). Edited March 31, 2022 by TheEagle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEagle Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 5 hours ago, Green19 said: He can not separate… which makes him the perfect packer wr and needs to be higher on this list. Rodgers will have to ear hole DBs still haha. London can separate. He runs great short and intermediate routes for a big WR. He doesn't have deep speed, but that's where that contested catch ability comes into play. He's like Mike Evans on contested balls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green19 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 38 minutes ago, Scoremore said: Watson as the #2? Yah no sorry. Whatever we'll see come draft day how they come off the board. Guessing the 2 Ohio state WR's will both be gone by the time the Packers pick. London will most likely be gone also. Possible on Williams. Rumor is Burks is sliding. Pierce he's got the measurables but needs work on his route running. He's a mid 2nd rounder at best. Same for Watson. https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/WR/1/2022 Nice breakdown of the WR's. Several sites have very similar rankings. Always surprises but Simms might be the only one I know of to rank them that way. Consensus is Wilson, Williams, Olave, Burks and London in the top 5. It's nearly universal. Always surprises beauty is in the eye of the beholder but no one that I have seen has either Pierce or Watson ranked ahead of Wilson and Olave. Oh I get it… but you also have things like this too. I think people will be surprise how the WRs fall in the draft. I would say take it as a good sign if you want Olave… because he is borderline what GB looks for. He has a high enough RAS score. But his issue is he is average height wise but also not as heavy as they want (I’m speaking ideally, I know they drafted Cobb and Rodgers, the difference is this is a first not a late second or third. They already don’t value the position as worth a first… I highly doubt they take a guy that they aren’t happy with the general size and speed combo). I can’t figure out how they see Burks and London because they love their average speed WRs but they tell everyone they want speed. So I’m conflicted because they have the size element easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEagle Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Green19 said: Oh I get it… but you also have things like this too. I think people will be surprise how the WRs fall in the draft. I would say take it as a good sign if you want Olave… because he is borderline what GB looks for. He has a high enough RAS score. But his issue is he is average height wise but also not as heavy as they want (I’m speaking ideally, I know they drafted Cobb and Rodgers, the difference is this is a first not a late second or third. They already don’t value the position as worth a first… I highly doubt they take a guy that they aren’t happy with the general size and speed combo). I can’t figure out how they see Burks and London because they love their average speed WRs but they tell everyone they want speed. So I’m conflicted because they have the size element easily. There will be teams, maybe most, that have Olave above Watson and Pickens on their boards, but I don't see the Packers being one of them. They're more likely to draft EDGE or OL at 22 if the top 4 are gone and Olave is the only WR left. Edited March 31, 2022 by TheEagle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneTwoSixFive Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, Scoremore said: Who's upset? Value is value. Olave and Wilson will be ranked ahead of Pierce Watson and Pickens on the Packers board. They are better players. It's quite possible all the top tier players will be gone before the Packers pick. Also possible if the board isn't going the way they like they could gulp trade up to land one of the top guys Value is value, eh. Well, that is an absolute statement and must be wrong, Why ? Because different teams run different schemes and want different things from their receivers. Sure, they all want the tall, very smart, super-fast, hands like glue, clean ball-plucker who runs routes like a god, gets tons of YAC, is always healthy and has a sturdy build that lets them block well and is blessed with a wonderful character. BUT, every receiver is a combination of these things, with some traits better than others. Which traits does each team value most......and least. First off, there is 'the eye of the beholder (no, not the D&D monster). If you follow the draft at all you must have seen some very different opinions on the same guy, not everyone sees the same things. Secondly, different teams put different relative values on the various traits. Since they don't rank all these things exactly the same, they have different preferences as to how they rank the available guys. Without knowing the thinking in each war room, you cannot be sure of the order in which guys are ranked. For example, there is a heap of difference between bigger guys like London and Burks, and slimmer guys like Williams/Wilson/Olave. Equally, some teams take more chances on injury history (the Packers have tended towards the more cautious view on this). It is certainly possible that Gutekunst considers guys like Dotson and Wilson too skinny for their team and doesn't even have them in a tier that sits in the first round. Therefore, we must accept that there is no sure-fire way to rank receivers (or any position for that matter), it's all relative to what a specific team wants, and there is no way of knowing how a team stacks its board (unless you are the Cowboys), or even who is, and is not, on it. I haven't even touched on how a team stacks its needs at all the other positions and how that impacts at what point they take a receiver, because although that does not affect how they rank receivers, it certainly affects their choices on where they might look to draft one. Edited March 31, 2022 by OneTwoSixFive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chili Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Lets look at this logically. LaFleur runs lots of 2 WR sets. You will have Lazard on one side and presumably a drafted rookie on the other. The whole goal of LaFleur's system is to make it harder for defences to tell if its run or pass play based on using the same look. In order for this to work the wide receivers need to be able to block as well as be a proficient pass catcher. LaFleur also says he need more speed to stretch the field and open up underneath. So in other words he wants someone who can handle the physical demands of the run game, good at catching passes and run fast. Now... try to marry that with the Packers draft philosophy. The first round traditionally been for high value positions eg OT, DL, OLB, CB. It makes drafting a WR in the 1st round somewhat unlikely. Also Gute has shown a tendency to lean towards high RAS/SPARQ players. Lets pretend for one moment we don't and we wait until the 2nd round to draft a WR, who could be there at pick #53 that fits with what LaFleur wants to do and fits with Gute's preferences? Christian Watson ticks all of LaFleur's and Gute's boxes but is he going to be available at that point in the draft. I don't know. Personally I feel he will be taken very early based on his overall potential but lots of people also feel he's only a 2nd round pick at best (I have no idea why). If not him, who else do you think fits the bill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pacman5252 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, TheEagle said: Have you watched NDSU? They run it like it's the 1960s. Watson had 800 receiving yards. The next highest on the team was 284 receiving yards by Phoenix Sproles. 284! Watson did what he could within the confines of that offense. They ran the ball 700 times and threw it 255 times. Most of the teams for these other WRs threw the ball close to 500 times. 800 receiving yards doesn't look bad in that context (basically, a half season worth of pass attempts for most teams). This goes back to the Stephen Hill comp. if you’re that elite of a prospect, teams still get you the ball. A lot of the scouting reports explain why he was graded a third round pick pre combine. PFF- dropped 16 of 120 catchable balls. Has problems tracking NFL.com- uses extra steps. Lacks bend Throw in the comp gap. This guy is too raw for top 50 Edited March 31, 2022 by pacman5252 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 5 hours ago, pacman5252 said: Age is part of it. Weston will be 25 this year. With that said, I think Watson is the most overrated WR in the draft. The guy didn’t really produce for ndsu. Pre combine, he was mocked third round (70-100). That grade was all premised on him being a raw athlete which he confirmed. Combines don’t bump you 40-50 slots. He has “too raw athlete”(Mims/Stephon Hill) written all over him. Watson is going to be 23 before the season starts so he's not exactly a young rookie either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 34 minutes ago, pacman5252 said: This goes back to the Stephen Hill comp. if you’re that elite of a prospect, teams still get you the ball. A lot of the scouting reports explain why he was graded a third round pick pre combine. PFF- dropped 16 of 120 catchable balls. Has problems tracking NFL.com- uses extra steps. Lacks bend Throw in the comp gap. This guy is too raw for top 50 This is Calvin Johnson's scouting report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 It will be interesting to see how Gute actually values his WRs. Sure, right now it's easy to SAY that we have no idea if he values Pierce or Watson above Olave and London, but we could use deductive reasoning to determine if it's realistic or not. We don't have enough recent evidence to really confirm what Gute is looking for at WR, but the little recent evidence we do have shows that Amari Rodgers has an average RAS score and was taken with a fairly premium pick. We could look at the MVS/Moore/EQ draft and say that our evidence is there, but that's long enough ago that we can't really use it as an indicator for what we might do in 2022. Based on my research, RAS scores have little impact on the ultimate success of WRs as long as it's over 5. Maybe Gute is doing similar research and coming to the same conclusion. Maybe he's in love with the guys who move best in shorts. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Old Guy said: Watson is going to be 23 before the season starts so he's not exactly a young rookie either. 23 and doesn't know how to run NFL routes. Let's draft him in the 1st round.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandy said: It will be interesting to see how Gute actually values his WRs. Sure, right now it's easy to SAY that we have no idea if he values Pierce or Watson above Olave and London, but we could use deductive reasoning to determine if it's realistic or not. We don't have enough recent evidence to really confirm what Gute is looking for at WR, but the little recent evidence we do have shows that Amari Rodgers has an average RAS score and was taken with a fairly premium pick. We could look at the MVS/Moore/EQ draft and say that our evidence is there, but that's long enough ago that we can't really use it as an indicator for what we might do in 2022. Based on my research, RAS scores have little impact on the ultimate success of WRs as long as it's over 5. Maybe Gute is doing similar research and coming to the same conclusion. Maybe he's in love with the guys who move best in shorts. Time will tell. I think you are comparing Amari Rodgers to guys who were 6'3 and taller is apples and oranges. The athletic traits of guys in the slot vs. outside are different. As others have noted we have Cobb and Rodgers to play the slot, so we are more than likely looking for boundary guys in this draft. Even though my draft crush is Skyy Moore and would love him in the second. He does seem to be moving up and might be gone before our 1st pick in the second round. I think there are a lot of guys he is probably looking at for the outside WR. Pierce (3rd round), Watson, London, Pickett and Williams are likely targets IMO. I'm not sure Burks has the straight-line speed he'd be looking for but I'm on expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 2 hours ago, Old Guy said: Watson is going to be 23 before the season starts so he's not exactly a young rookie either. MVS part two, except MVS wasn't drafted with a premium pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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