2022 DRAFT THREAD - QB’s Wanted

[MKnight82]

3 minutes ago, e16bball said:

This brings up a question that I’ve been wondering about in the back of my head. Derek Carr is obviously the main second-tier QB that we talk about on the trade market — but there is that guy who wears #8 for Minnesota who is probably a similar caliber player to Carr and is potentially going to end up being dangled in trade. 

Everyone knows how I’d feel about that (spoiler: I’d hate it more than I hated trading for McNabb, the mere idea of “Kirk and the Commanders” is basically my waking nightmare at this point), but many Washington fans don’t feel the same way I do about him. I’m wondering if others would be open to a reunion — and if we think Kirk would be, now that Bruce is slain and a good God-fearing man is running the organization. 

I don’t think Dan would sign off on a reunion.  Idk maybe I’m wrong.  Honestly if we could just sign him in FA without giving up anything there are worse options.

[offbyone]

6 hours ago, ripsean21 said:

That’s why we’re a bad team reguardless of who we get. There’s no plan or vision just panic picks and reactions. The right way to go is the draft only if your guy is avalible. Then develop them. I’d be more okay not coming away with a QB this year then doing another rental or taking the position round one for a guy they don’t love. People have to understand bad teams force picks. Forcing this QB position will bring more of the same. Yes not taking on means you don’t improve your weakest position. But that doesn’t mean we can’t continue building the roster for when there is YOUR guy. Your guy mean l the whole staff and FO signs off because they can coach the deficiencies and they can groom their strengths into weapons. 

Sadly I agree.  Rivera has not just told the fans but all of football he must acquire a franchise qb no matter what this offseason.  Rarely does a GM or coach publicly declare his desperation.  Now, if he goes the free agency route, he will pay an even bigger premium.  If that doesn't work, he will undoubtedly take one with our first round pick whether it is the right guy or not.  Rather he is going to take the guy available. 

At #11, 2 qbs will already be picked.  This qb class is already a bunch of question marks, so we will undoubtedly be over drafting.  But Rivera is no stranger to this strategy.  We over drafted last year too.  The difference is when you over reach on a LB the whole defense doesn't fail because of it.  When you do it at qb, the entire team fails and generally does so for multiple years.

The only thing that can save us is Lady Luck.  She is extremely fickle when it comes to qbs.  The first one off the board sometimes isn't the best.  Fairly frequently, the qb no one expects to be truly great, ends up taking the crown.

[e16bball]

26 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

And that’s very possible that guy wouldn’t be. But sometimes a guy can come in and surprise you. So it’s cool to put 2$ in and atleast scratch a ticket that you liked in a class you didn’t love. Because next year given the situation our QB’s have been in history these guys could play you into a chance at Bryce Young. Maybe the guy just takes it over. 
I personally don’t love any of them. But from a prospect value standpoint in the second I’m okay with maybe getting lucky probably still in the market next year. But that allowed me to get a true BPA in round one we really need to hit this year and basically taking a stab with a guys upside and hoping to catch lightning with lower end expectations.

I think it makes a lot of sense. And I think over the years, lots of people have thought it makes a lot of sense. 

But basically no one got what they needed out of it. 

There have been 34 QBs selected on Day 2 in the last 15 drafts who have taken NFL snaps. The best, of course, was Russell Wilson. The next best? Andy Dalton and Derek Carr are the clear second tier. After them? Colin Kaepernick and Jimmy Garoppolo. That’s the top 5 (out of 34). Maybe one day Jalen Hurts or Davis Mills (or Trask or Mond) cracks one of those groups…but color me skeptical. 

So in short, 1 out of 34 have hit on a genuine star QB. That’s 2.9%. Depending on how you define the term, anywhere from 3 (8.8%) to 5 (14.7%) have hit on a legit long-term starter/franchise QB. 

Those aren’t the odds I’m looking for. As I’ve said many times, the NFL still isn’t that great at identifying who will be a star QB — but they’ve gotten pretty damn good at figuring out who won’t be. If the whole league has a chance to take a QB and chooses to pass, odds are it was for good reason. 

Edited January 23, 2022 by e16bball

[turtle28]

38 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

My early prediction is that our starting QB next year is Baker Mayfield.  I’m not saying I’d do that but that’s my prediction.  I think Kirk Cousins has played his last down for the Vikings and will go to Cleveland. They need someone slightly better than Mayfield to be competitive.  We will trade our 2nd round pick to Cleveland for Mayfield. Dan will sign off on the trade cause Mayfield is a minor celebrity in commercials. 

[turtle28]

32 minutes ago, e16bball said:

This brings up a question that I’ve been wondering about in the back of my head. Derek Carr is obviously the main second-tier QB that we talk about on the trade market — but there is that guy who wears #8 for Minnesota who is probably a similar caliber player to Carr and is potentially going to end up being dangled in trade. 

Everyone knows how I’d feel about that (spoiler: I’d hate it more than I hated trading for McNabb, the mere idea of “Kirk and the Commanders” is basically my waking nightmare at this point), but many Washington fans don’t feel the same way I do about him. I’m wondering if others would be open to a reunion — and if we think Kirk would be, now that Bruce is slain and a good God-fearing man is running the organization. 

I don’t see it. I don’t like the idea of trading for Carr either. I’d only trade for an elite QB and I don’t think Carr is elite. He is in the Kirk category of very good but not elite.

I also don’t think the Raiders or Vikings will trade their starting QBs. We are the test case as to why you don’t even move on from your very good but not elite QB in his prime. We’ve had 10 starting QBs since we didn’t re-sign Kirk and we’re nearly 10 games under .500 too.

QB purgatory is far worse than what we were when we had Kirk.

[offbyone]

3 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Well prepare to be disappointed. The top QBs on the market don’t want to come here bc we don’t have an offensive minded HC, we don’t have top offensive coordinator, we don’t have elite offensive weapons and we don’t have a recent history of doing a lot of winning & being a contender. No FA looks at Washington as a great destination to get to the playoffs and win playoff games. We don’t have anything to attract them.

In all seriousness, I think last offseason we would have attracted more free agent qbs because it looked like we had an elite defense and a few weapons on offense.  I think we are actually less attractive this year because our defense appears to be declining rather than rising.  

Last year Rivera tried to get Stafford.  I can only assume failed not because of the price we were willing to pay but because of more attractive destinations.  Rodgers and Wilson aren't coming here for the same reason.  Carr might be our only shot and frankly I would prefer him because he is younger.  But I doubt Raiders let him walk.

[turtle28]

9 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I think it makes a lot of sense. And I think over the years, lots of people have thought it makes a lot of sense. 

But basically no one got what they needed out of it. 

There have been 34 QBs selected on Day 2 in the last 15 drafts who have taken NFL snaps. The best, of course, was Russell Wilson. The next best? Andy Dalton and Derek Carr are the clear second tier. After them? Colin Kaepernick and Jimmy Garoppolo. That’s the top 5 (out of 34). Maybe one day Jalen Hurts or Davis Mills (or Trask or Mond) cracks one of those groups…but color me skeptical. 

So in short, 1 out of 34 have hit on a genuine star QB. That’s 2.9%. Depending on how you define the term, anywhere from 3 (8.8%) to 5 (14.7%) have hit on a legit long-term starter/franchise QB. 

Those aren’t the odds I’m looking for. As I’ve said many times, the NFL still isn’t that great at identifying who will be a star QB — but they’ve gotten pretty damn good at figuring out who won’t be. If the whole league has a chance to take a QB and chooses to pass, odds are it was for good reason. 

The odds aren’t great, but we still have to try I think. Even if we don’t draft a good starter in round 2, we’d still need a good back up who could come in and hopefully win us some Games.

[ripsean21]

2 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I don’t see it. I don’t like the idea of trading for Carr either. I’d only trade for an elite QB and I don’t think Carr is elite. He is in the Kirk category of very good but not elite.

I also don’t think the Raiders or Vikings will trade their starting QBs. We are the test case as to why you don’t even move on from your very good but not elite QB in his prime. We’ve had 10 starting QBs since we didn’t re-sign Kirk and we’re nearly 10 games under .500 too.

QB purgatory is far worse than what we were when we had Kirk.

See this is how I feel. If your giving up picks they have to be elite. You can not give up value selections for guys who can’t win the ways you need

[turtle28]

5 minutes ago, offbyone said:

In all seriousness, I think last offseason we would have attracted more free agent qbs because it looked like we had an elite defense and a few weapons on offense.  I think we are actually less attractive this year because our defense appears to be declining rather than rising.  

Last year Rivera tried to get Stafford.  I can only assume failed not because of the price we were willing to pay but because of more attractive destinations.  Rodgers and Wilson aren't coming here for the same reason.  Carr might be our only shot and frankly I would prefer him because he is younger.  But I doubt Raiders let him walk.

Yeah, Stafford went to the Rams bc of Sean McVay. He wasn’t interested in playing for Rivera & Turner over playing for McVay. I agree that would be the same for Rodgers & Wilson and also Carr & Watson. We just aren’t an attractive destination. 

I also agree that the Raiders are unlikely to trade Carr. Carr actually said in the last few years that he’s retire rather than play for anyone but the Raiders, now whether that’s truly true or not, I don’t know, it’s hard to turn down $30 million in your primes as a pro athlete. 
 

If we’re ever going to be good/great again we’re going to have to do it through drafting a good/great QB.

Edited January 23, 2022 by turtle28

[e16bball]

4 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

The odds aren’t great, but we still have to try I think. Even if we don’t draft a good starter in round 2, we’d still need a good back up who could come in and hopefully win us some Games.

Why bother, when past experience has shown it’s almost certainly not going to happen? 

It’s not like things are getting better, in terms of finding day 2 QB talent. Over the last 7 drafts, the best day 2 QB anyone has unearthed is…Jacoby Brissett? Jalen Hurts? Davis Mills?

You're just wasting your time taking these guys. And your picks, and those are valuable picks that can turn into genuine contributors. That’s potentially a Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Sam Cosmi, etc. that you’re wasting on a less than 3% chance that you’ll fall *** backwards into Russell Wilson. 

If they don’t like anyone enough to take at 11, they should just try to trade out of the pick. Do a Giants-Bears trade, get a future 1st. Trade out of that entirely for another future 1st if you want. Trade Payne for a future pick and take your comp pick for Scherff. Build everything toward having enough ammo to move up and get Young or Stroud next year. 

But don’t waste a perfectly good pick on some dude nobody wanted, just for the sake of taking one. 

[MKnight82]

9 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Why bother, when past experience has shown it’s almost certainly not going to happen? 

It’s not like things are getting better, in terms of finding day 2 QB talent. Over the last 7 drafts, the best day 2 QB anyone has unearthed is…Jacoby Brissett? Jalen Hurts? Davis Mills?

You're just wasting your time taking these guys. And your picks, and those are valuable picks that can turn into genuine contributors. That’s potentially a Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Sam Cosmi, etc. that you’re wasting on a less than 3% chance that you’ll fall *** backwards into Russell Wilson. 

If they don’t like anyone enough to take at 11, they should just try to trade out of the pick. Do a Giants-Bears trade, get a future 1st. Trade out of that entirely for another future 1st if you want. Trade Payne for a future pick and take your comp pick for Scherff. Build everything toward having enough ammo to move up and get Young or Stroud next year. 

But don’t waste a perfectly good pick on some dude nobody wanted, just for the sake of taking one. 

I guess my counter to this is, a lot of these QBs in this draft would be 2nd-3rd round picks in a decent draft.  So wouldn’t we be wasting 11 then?

[turtle28]

18 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Why bother, when past experience has shown it’s almost certainly not going to happen? 

It’s not like things are getting better, in terms of finding day 2 QB talent. Over the last 7 drafts, the best day 2 QB anyone has unearthed is…Jacoby Brissett? Jalen Hurts? Davis Mills?

You're just wasting your time taking these guys. And your picks, and those are valuable picks that can turn into genuine contributors. That’s potentially a Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Sam Cosmi, etc. that you’re wasting on a less than 3% chance that you’ll fall *** backwards into Russell Wilson. 

If they don’t like anyone enough to take at 11, they should just try to trade out of the pick. Do a Giants-Bears trade, get a future 1st. Trade out of that entirely for another future 1st if you want. Trade Payne for a future pick and take your comp pick for Scherff. Build everything toward having enough ammo to move up and get Young or Stroud next year. 

But don’t waste a perfectly good pick on some dude nobody wanted, just for the sake of taking one. 

You take the best player, if that’s a qb and you need a young one to develop you take one even if it’s after round 1 bc even if they don’t develop into a starter, you still need good/great back ups.

You also never know. Who would’ve even thought that Carr, Wilson, Foles, Cousins, Dalton, Kap or Jimmy G.

Not trying just bc you didn’t take a QB in round 1 just doesn’t make sense to me. You still have to try if there’s a QB worth selecting when you pick and you need a young QB to develop.

You just never know who will develop into what.

[turtle28]

Oh, and you can put me down on record as wanting Mariota or Trubisky as a stop gap until we draft a better QB over trading for Baker Mayfield. Trading for Baker and then paying him like a top-10 QB would be one of the worst decisions this franchise would ever make.

Edited January 23, 2022 by turtle28

[e16bball]

5 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

I guess my counter to this is, a lot of these QBs in this draft would be 2nd-3rd round picks in a decent draft.  So wouldn’t we be wasting 11 then?

I mean, that’s the kinda the point, right?

It comes down to their evaluation of the players. If they don’t have any of them evaluated as worthy of taking top 10, then they shouldn’t take them at 11. And they shouldn’t try to fool themselves into thinking that taking such a player if he slides down into day 2 is somehow addressing the QB position. 

I think it’s possible that one (or more) of these guys could be worthy of taking at 11. But it’s especially difficult this year to tell who that is, because none of them (save for Willis) has the obvious physical profile of a modern star QB, and none of them has the kind of consistent success that you can see in the stat line (or the win column).

It’s going to come down to getting to know them, and whether any of them has legit elite intangibles to go with the rest of their largely uninspiring resumes. If one of these guys has a genius level IQ, a borderline self-destructive work ethic, and the kind of personality that makes others want to walk through walls for him — then I’d say that guy is probably worth the investment. But it’s just so hard for us to see that from the outside of the process. 

[e16bball]

6 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

You take the best player, if that’s a qb and you need a young one to develop you take one even if it’s after round 1 bc even if they don’t develop into a starter, you still need good/great back ups.

You also never know. Who would’ve even thought that Carr, Wilson, Foles, Cousins, Dalton, Kap or Jimmy G.

Not trying just bc you didn’t take a QB in round 1 just doesn’t make sense to me. You still have to try if there’s a QB worth selecting when you pick and you need a young QB to develop.

You just never know who will develop into what.

But the best player almost by definition won’t be a QB.

I think it’s pretty much common knowledge that QBs get moved up several tiers because of their positional value/importance, so at almost any pick, you’d be taking a QB over a more “highly rated” player at a different position. 

If you’re taking Carson Strong or Desmond Ridder over someone like Trey McBride or Christian Harris in the 2nd round — and I think they probably end up coming off the board in similar pick ranges — the only reason you’re doing it is because you’re forcing a pick on a QB, not because you actually think he’s the better player.