MVP leaders at this point.

[808]

 

[lancerman]

1 hour ago, 808 said:

 

Couple problems. 

1. Wentz WAS NOT the leading MVP candidate when he went down. He just wasn't. His team was tied with Brady and Brady led him in every stat but TD's. The odds were on Brady at that point. You really can't say that for the other guys that one MVP while missing time (the last of which was 17 years ago). Most of them either were leading the whole year missed a couple games, or missed there games and then came back to lock up their chances. Of the guys who missed time Rodgers broke the record for passing rating, Faulk was clearly the best player that year despite missing time and put up all time great numbers, McNair won a Co MVP and had to share it,  Smith was clearly the best player in the league that year he missed the first two games of the year that year and still led the league in rushing yards and Y/A,  Thomas only missed one game and still had over 200 yards rushing, Joe Montana only missed one game in 1990, the year he missed 3 games Joe Montana still broke the record for passer rating  and had the highest completion percentage and was on clearly the best team in the league, the only other person to miss 3 games was John Elway and it ended up being one of the most controversial MVP's in history so take that for what you will, Larry Brown and YA Tittle only missed 2 and 1 games and I really can't speak to them as one was in 72 and the other was pre Super Bowl era. But the truth is all but 2 missed less than Wentz who really missed 3 and half games and they were all already kind of leading the pack and the one who was closest to Wentz was insanely controversial at the time. 

2. Wentz doesn't have the problem of his main competition being a guy who bests him in all but one stat, had the same team record when he went down (meaning that Wentz teams advantage in record came without the help of Wentz) and that the case against that guy last year was that he missed roughly the same amount of time as Wentz (give 2 more quarters and change). So it's just a bad look to not give it to Brady for someone where the argument against him is missing time. Especially when in the time that the two both played, Wentz was being out played by him. So the argument would be Brady out played Wentz all year then Brady started playing more average for a few weeks while Wentz wasn't playing at all.

[BStanRamFan]

Question: Gurley not playing this week will hurt him a little because he most likely won't be league leading rusher if Hunt plays, but if Brady loses to the Jets or has a poor showing, could that lock it up for Gurley?

[El Ramster]

Tom Brady: 367/544 or 67.5%, 4,387 yards, 30 TD (5.0%), 8 INT (1.5%), 104.2 RAT.
Alex Smith: 341/505 or 67.5%, 4,042 yards, 26 TD (5.1%), 5 INT (1.0%), 104.7 RAT.

As far as how each QB performed without their best players: in games where Kareem Hunt was ineffective on the ground (week 6-13), Smith still put up a 96.2 rating. In the two games Gronkowski missed- week 5 and week 14- Brady's rating dropped to the low 80s.

As far as the "clutch" factor goes: Smith led 3 game-winning-drives compared to Brady's two. Brady had 2 fourth-quarter-comebacks to Smith's one. Smith was significantly more mobile, totaling 355 yards on 60 rushes relative to Brady's 28 yards on 25 rushes. Overall, Smith had 4,397 all-purpouse yards to Brady's 4,415.

It's insane to me that a disparity in a team's defense (New England is ranked 7th, Kansas City is ranked 14th) and a gap in coaching (Reid vs Belichick), two factors a QB cannot control, marks the difference between MVP juggernaut and overlooked pro-bowl snub.

 

Meanwhile, the gap between Todd Gurley and literally any other FLEX player is massive. While Tom Brady and Alex Smith are tied statistically, Gurley has no counterpart due to his remarkable ability to rush and receive. Ranked in order of yards:

Todd Gurley: 343 touches, 2,093 yards, 19 TDs, 139.5 YDS/G, 6.10 YDS/Touch
Le'Veon Bell: 406 touches, 1,946 yards, 11 TDs, 129.8 YDS/G, 4.79 YDS/Touch
Kareem Hunt: 324 touches, 1,747 yards, 10 TDs, 116.4 YDS/G, 5.39 YDS/touch

The gap between Todd Gurley and Le'Veon Bell, both in MVP consideration, is significantly larger than Brady and Smith, even though Smith isn't a pro bowler.

From Reddit.. Just imagine had Gurley gotten more touches.. Maybe him being fresher makes it better for us. 

[Jakuvious]

Honestly it's a real shame that Alex had that poor stretch from Dallas to Buffalo. Had he played even a little better those 3 weeks, or if we had won despite him playing poorly, he'd probably be in the lead now. At least in he conversation. It makes a big difference that the Pats went 2-1 in Brady's worst 3 game stretch while the Chiefs went 0-3. It's a little easier to overlook the former. By the time Alex got back to his MVP caliber play he and the Chiefs were kind of forgotten.

[El Ramster]

1 minute ago, Jakuvious said:

Honestly it's a real shame that Alex had that poor stretch from Dallas to Buffalo. Had he played even a little better those 3 weeks, or if we had won despite him playing poorly, he'd probably be in the lead now. At least in he conversation. It makes a big difference that the Pats went 2-1 in Brady's worst 3 game stretch while the Chiefs went 0-3. It's a little easier to overlook the former. By the time Alex got back to his MVP caliber play he and the Chiefs were kind of forgotten.

I was shocked reading those numbers.. Figured the cover 2 was his downfall for that rough stretch.. Did teams stop playing it or did he adapt? 

[lancerman]

Smith's team losing all those games really gutted him. But record is a big part of MVP and it's kind of undeniable. Cam literally won it almost entirely off record alone.

[Jakuvious]

3 minutes ago, El ramster said:

I was shocked reading those numbers.. Figured the cover 2 was his downfall for that rough stretch.. Did teams stop playing it or did he adapt? 

He adapted and the coaching staff adapted. Reid handing off play calling duties to Nagy made a big difference. It's seeming more like it was the downfall for Reid's scheme at the time than that it was the downfall for Alex. His play the last 4 weeks has been more in line with what he was doing for the first 7. We've gotten a little more run heavy on the goal line (4 rushing TDs in 3 weeks, compared to 5 the rest of the season) so the TDs aren't there as much, but the performance is. But they've gotten back to the vertical game and have altered some of the RPO concepts to be better suited for the zones teams have run against us.

[Jakuvious]

1 minute ago, lancerman said:

Smith's team losing all those games really gutted him. But record is a big part of MVP and it's kind of undeniable. Cam literally won it almost entirely off record alone.

Oh for sure. Not like record playing a factor is anything new. And it isn't like Smith was blameless in those losses anyway. Had the Chiefs won those games where Smith was playing poorly, it really would've just put him at a push with Brady anyways. Would've left them with similar stats and record. Just a shame as a Chiefs fan. Would've been fun to see a guy like Smith win it.

[lancerman]

It's like the double edge of the award. It really means "best QB on one of the top 3 teams or running back who is about to break a historic record". "Value" rarely factors in... until.... a really good player's team starts losing a bunch of games. Like I remember for years the argument against Watt was "his team isn't winning enough". 

[showtime]

If you look at Brady's numbers, they really aren't very impressive consider the type of numbers he or other QB's have put up in the past.  30 TDs, 8 INTs, 4,300 yards.  None of that is impressive at all, imo.

[Hunter2_1]

When do they announce it? Can't wait for it to be over 

[lancerman]

Just now, showtime said:

If you look at Brady's numbers, they really aren't very impressive consider the type of numbers he or other QB's have put up in the past.  30 TDs, 8 INTs, 4,300 yards.  None of that is impressive at all, imo.

Manning's gotten atleast 3 MVP's with similar numbers. Cam got MVP with worse passing numbers. Those are still impressive numbers. They just aren't all time peak year numbers like we see once in a blue moon. 

Also it has more to do with the fact that Brady is somewhere in the top 3 in virtually ever stat at his position, has led his team to come from behind wins in several crucial games, and his team has the best record in his conference. I mean if you look at Brady's career in overall stats across the board he's having at worst a top 5 year in his career, possibly even a top 3 depending on how you value certain stats..

So those are MVP worthy stats and Brady's team has the record and he has the wins to give him the award. Like not for nothing, we were all talking earlier about how Wentz would get it if he were healthy.... Wentz still was only going to be ahead of Brady in TD's. Would we be saying "well he has an okay TD number but the rest of his stats aren't impressive"? 

[lancerman]

3 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

When do they announce it? Can't wait for it to be over 

When it really doesn't matter at all anymore tbh lol. If your the MVP and you aren't in the Super Bowl... who cares anymore. And if you are the MVP and you are in the Super Bowl... who cares the Super Bowl matters more than that silly award you won the other night (I'm sure Matt Ryan and Cam Newton took comfort in their MVP when they lost the Super Bowl right after).

That's the funniest thing about this.

[808]

1 hour ago, BStanRamFan said:

Gurley not playing this week will hurt him a little

Yes, if Wentz is held back because of missing games, then Gurley should be too. 

1 hour ago, El ramster said:

Just imagine had Gurley gotten more touches..

Especially in the 4th quarter of the loss to the Eagles.