BDL 2021 Week 7 - Cuba Smugglers @ Berlin Blitzkrieg

[SirA1]

BDL 2021 Week 7

Match:  Cuba Smugglers @ Berlin Blitzkrieg

Away Owner:   @MD4L

Home Owner:  @Ragnarok

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[SirA1]

Cuba Smugglers

QB: Derek Carr
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Rondale Moore
TE: Mo Alie-Cox
LT: Garret Bolles 
LG: Elgton Jenkins 
C - Ryan Jensen 
RG: Trai Turner 
RT: Billy Turner 

 

RB: Jamaal Williams
WR: Tim Patrick
FB: Gabe Nabers 
TE: Hunter Long 
WR: Cedrick Wilson
QB: Jameis Winston
RB: Ty Johnson
OL: Matt Hennessy 

 

Edge: Rashan Gary
DT: Arik Armstead
NT: Derrick Nnadi 
Edge: Cam Jordan
SLB: Donta Hightower  INACTIVE
MLB: Eric Kendricks 
RCB: Bryce Callahan 
NCB: Kenny Moore
FS: Tyrann Mathieu 
LCB: Shaquill Griffin

 

WLB: Myles Jack INACTIVE
S: Kareem Jackson
RCB: Jalen Mills
DT: Lawrence Guy
Edge: Alex Highsmith
S: Khari Willis
DL: Tershawn Wharton
RCB: David Long

 

Berlin Blitzkrieg

Offense
QB - Aaron Rodgers
RB - Aaron Jones
WR - Allen Robinson
WR - Marquise Brown
TE - Dallas Goedert
TE - Hunter Henry
LT - Kolton Miller
LG - James Daniels
C - Corey Linsley
RG - Alex Cappa
RT - Tristan Wirfs

RB - Kenneth Gainwell
RB - Michael Carter
WR - Brandon Aiyuk
WR - Odell Beckham
TE - Jordan Akins
IOL - Royce Newman

Defense
DE - Trey Hendrickson
DT - Quinnen Williams
DT - Derrick Brown
DE - Lorenzo Carter
LB - Tremaine Edmunds
LB - Kyzir White
CB - Donte Jackson
CB - Eric Stokes
NB - Byron Murphy
S - Antoine Winfield
S - Juan Thornhill

DE - D.J. Wonnum
DE - Trevis Gipson
DE - Yetur Gross-Matos
DT - Zach Sieler
DT - Kingsley Keke
LB - Jalen Reeves-Maybin
CB - Kendall Fuller
CB - Nik Needham

 

Edited October 24, 2021 by SirA1

[SirA1]

Cuba Smugglers

Intro

We ended our losing streak against Gotham last week. We are prepared to extend our win streak vs Berlin.

Offense

Derek Carr and Dalvin Cook have brought some stability to our offensive production. Berlin is well rounded on defense but doesn’t have a particular area we fear if we like our own opportunities for success offensively. Justin Jefferson has emerged as our most trust worthy and consistent weapon at receiver. That will be constant today as looks to make him a feature weapon. If Berlin attempts to double him, we are going to keep putting him in different areas and exploit one on one matchups or potential loopholes in zone coverage. Our man beaters on the outside are slants from 3-6 yards with YAC opportunities frequently available. We will utilize back shoulder fades on single coverage situations and go after Donte Jackson or Eric Stokes with the trustworthiness of Derek Carr to make the risky throws. In zone coverage, we will flood route concepts featuring Julio Jones on the same side as a bunch or stack when we want to make underneath reads or utilize different combinations with Julio running comeback routes at 10 yards with Jefferson running in cuts at the 10-15 yard range to get into deeper areas of the field against Berlin.

Rondale Moore will have a lot of route decoys or coverage focus routes as we also use him as a field stretcher. Unlike prior years, Derek Carr has been making routine deep reads like he did before his injury. If left isolated we are happy to let Moore use his deep speed against two fellow track star athletes in Jackson and Stokes. Particularly when Julio and Jefferson are paired together, expect Moore to be on the opposite supplementing screens with deeper routes to potentially take Winfield or Thornhill into areas that open up our intermediate passing attack. Derek Carr has been good enough for several games that we feel comfortable with the full product of what he can do when protected well and with weapons that can produce if targeted.

Dalvin Cook is our single individual player with the most touches. We feel very comfortable about this matchup if we can do two things; 1) run at the edges (away from their DTs) and 2) block Tremaine Edmunds at the 2nd level. To do 1), it will involve plenty of tosses or counters that allow Dalvin Cook to use his speed and get to the 2nd level. Our counters and tosses are revolves around leaving one DT isolated in free space at the expense of getting to Edmunds in the 2nd level. Ryan Jensen or Elgton Jenkins are our money men in this regard and we think Jenkins in particular can make this strategy effective. The benefit is having Cook spring into the 2nd level 5-7 times can yield the type of rushing production to bring one safety down or more importantly keep our running game at a level that can control the game while Carr gets into rhythm with our skill weapons. Cook as a receiver is also useful and suffices with our goal to get him the ball in space or block defenders at the 2nd level. Either way, Cook will look to take on 25 touches and be a focal point as a runner and receiver.

Blocking Berlin’s interior is a challenge so it goes without saying the addition of Jenkins this week gives us necessary help. Jenkins will be helped by Jansen on several plays that we intend to leave a Berlin DT isolated, but Jensen also has responsibility to help Cleveland against the talented duo of pass rushers. 

 

Defense

We are in a special situation dealing with Aaron Rodgers this week. Berlin might have the best compilation of receivers in Robinson-OBJ-Brown-Toney but none of those guys has produce to the level this year where we need to dictate entire coverages to the assignment. That frees up our objective as Berlin has strayed away from starting OBJ, so we will mix up man and zone coverages this game with the benefit of rushing 4 by blitzing a non DL (Moore, Mathieu, Derwin James), or playing two man under across the board and provide safety help to our man cover CBs. We don’t intend on using shadow coverages so it’s stationary roles for our starters. Griffin has improved his performance in recent weeks and that is supremely beneficial because we are comfortable letting him handle situations on the island for at least a 10 plays and up to 20 plays should he show comfort handling the responsibility.

There is no WR that strikes fear to assure he’s covered on all plays but we want coverages that respect the entirety of offensive potential with a team like Berlin. In zone coverage we will utilize a fair share of cover 4 schemes that have both Derwin James and Tyrann Mathieu playing deep to avoid any deep passes from being thrown over Bryce Callahan. In man coverage situations we will put a safety overtop Callahan but whether Derwin or Tyrann we will let that player move around pre snap whether it be going to Griffin’s side before bailing or staying at the middle before going to Callahan’s side. Berlin used some 3-by-1 sets last week and if they replicate that our patented cover 3 schemes will allow our safeties to come down and assist Kenny Moore with keep 3-5 yard targets from breaking into 20+ yard gains.

Chandler Jones being out is a big blow to our defense but the positive is we can align extra help at the second level to accommodate for Rodgers the scrambler or the dynamic talent in the passing game. The equivalent benefit is this allows us to move Derwin James closer to the LOS with Kareem Jackson taking his role deep or Donta Hightower abandoning coverage responsibility and blitzing from free lanes as a pass rusher. This benefit is a nice response to dealing with Rodgers ability to buy time by moving out of the pocket and is an effective compliment with Derwin James in particular lining up closer to the LOS. We will also have Derwin James line up as an edge rusher or coming off the slot with Armstead as a DE with Gary and Jordan playing games together on the right side of the LOS in terms of gap responsibility.

Dealing with Aaron Jones will be a hassle but gap contain and the presence of our edge defenders allow Kendricks to lock in on Jones or on lesser occasions Hunter Henry. Myles Jack will play more on early downs to replace Hightower if Berlin is adamant about establishing its running game. Our 4-3 sets against Berlin’s two TE sets make us comfortable dealing with any runs 

 

Berlin Blitzkrieg

Offense

Overview - Attack the linebackers, run the ball to exhaust their DL, use play action.

2 TE - 70% -

Run Game - With Hightower and Jack inactive, we want to attack their second level in the run and pass game.  Look for a heavy dose of Aaron Jones in the run game with Gainwell and Carter spelling him as needed.  While we want to run our stretch play a lot, we will also run some tosses, dives, and counters to force whoever Cuba starts at the second level to fill their gaps appropriately.  We are going to move our tight ends around the formation pre-snap to give us a numbers advantage in the run game or tip coverage in the pass game.  One of our TEs might move into the backfield to be a lead blocker or move across the formation so both TEs are on the same side to help seal the edge.  We will also split one or both TEs out to show coverage and lighten the box.

Pass Game - Building off of the above, we are going to use a heavy dose of play action this week as Cuba would have to put 9 in the box to hope to stop the run.  We are going to target our TEs and Jones heavily in the pass game as we like those matchups all game.  That said, Robinson and Marquise will get each get a number of targets, especially if Cuba has to load up the box or push safeties forward.

3 WR - 25% - Robinson, Marquise, Aiyuk, a TE, and Jones.  Aiyuk has had a slower start to the year than we would have liked, and with Kirk gone, it’s time for us to get him performing like last year.  We are going to run our offense like usual, but we are going to move Aiyuk around the formation pre-snap to see if we can manufacture some touches for him.

4 WR - 5% - Robinson, Marquise, Aiyuk, and OBJ with Jones.  We are going to be in shotgun here and move one WR across the formation pre-snap to show coverage before letting Rodgers do his thing.

Defense

Overview - Win at the LOS, put Winfield in the box to help against Cook, mix man and zone.

Defensive Line
Garrett Bolles and Trai Turner have not impressed this season, so we want to take full advantage of that by lining up Hendrickson across from Bolles and Quinnen across from Trai.  We think one or both will win those matchups with regularity to help limit the run game and make Carr uncomfortable.  If they try to have Jensen help against Quinnen, Brown will have a one-on-one with Cleveland which we think favors us as well.  We will rotate our other DE spot depending on the situation.  In running situations, look for Carter and YGM with Wonnum or Trevis on passing downs.

Linebackers
Kyzir White gets the start this week next to Tremaine as he has evidently decided to be very good this year so he can get paid this offseason.  With no Gronk, Kyzir is going to have Alie-Cox in man coverage.  Tremaine will be completely focused on Cuba’s biggest threat, Dalvin Cook.  Anywhere Cook goes, Tremaine will follow.

Secondary -
Corners - This is the best we have felt about our secondary all season.  Donte gets Julio, Stokes gets Jefferson, and Byron takes whoever they put in the slot.  If they go 4 WRs, Byron and Kendall take the slots with Stokes and Donte outside.

Safeties - Thornhill is going to be deep all game, typically lining up on the hash to Jefferson’s side.  This will allow him to help Stokes over the top while not totally abandoning the middle of the field.  It will leave Donte without help down the sideline against Julio on a number of plays.  Winfield will line up in the box to give us a numbers advantage against the run.  From here he will take on one of a number of roles: help Tremaine double Cook, stay in a middle zone to defend against slants and crossers, or drop back into a 2 Deep Shell look with Thornhill.

Coverage Strategy - We will use a split of man and zone coverage this game, with the matchups laid out above for man coverage.  In zone, look for more Cover 2 as we want more guys in the intermediate part of the field as that’s where Jefferson and Dalvin do their best work.  This will also have eyes towards the backfield to help limit Cook.  In man, we will switch between a shaded Cover 1(Thornhill shaded to help against Jefferson) with Winfield staying up to either double Cook or take a middle zone, or Cover 2 with Winfield dropping back and Thornhill sliding over to his half.

[Ragnarok]

Hightower and Jack(JAX is on bye and Jack missed last week) are out for Cuba at LB.

[MD4L]

Looks like Derwin James goes full time LB this week which allows us to make Kareem Jackson a full time starter. Khari Willis gets more run as LB3, and Alex Highsmith is the SLB when we run 4-3 base against Berlin’s 12 or 22 personnel.

[bcb1213]

On 10/24/2021 at 4:52 PM, MD4L said:

Looks like Derwin James goes full time LB this week which allows us to make Kareem Jackson a full time starter. Khari Willis gets more run as LB3, and Alex Highsmith is the SLB when we run 4-3 base against Berlin’s 12 or 22 personnel.

I'll cut you a little slack cause he's in the writeup but you didn't roster Derwin 

[SirA1]

[bcb1213]

Got to take Berlin here. The lack of healthy LB plus Henry probably Goedert, who Highsmith is on in man coverage is gonna go ballistic with the safety help going to Callahan.  The Cuba offense will move the ball but I think the Turner side of the line is gonna have some breaks to allow just enough negative plays to halt td drives to fg 

Berlin 24-16

[Pickle Rick]

Berlin gameplanned well imo for the lack of LB depth/starters.  Berlin takes the cake here 

[Scoundrel]

Going Berlin. The linebacker issue isn’t the end all be all and James although left at home is in the gameplan would probably play well enough in that role, however Berlin is heavily attacking this and just great awareness by them and scheming to take advantage where they knew they could.  

[Jlash]

I think the deadly combination of Frog's not realizing he would be so shorthanded and not being able to game plan and Rags having the exact right personnel to do damage in that area creates some mismatches. Goedert and Henry aren't both doing to do damage because I think Derwin can erase one, but the other is running a mismatch almost all game and the run game aspect will be a problem. 

[pheltzbahr]

6 hours ago, Jlash said:

I think the deadly combination of Frog's not realizing he would be so shorthanded and not being able to game plan and Rags having the exact right personnel to do damage in that area creates some mismatches. Goedert and Henry aren't both doing to do damage because I think Derwin can erase one, but the other is running a mismatch almost all game and the run game aspect will be a problem. 

This sums it up nicely for me.

[VigilantZombie]

2 really good teams but Cuba has some unfortunate injuries and Berlin has done it right in rhe gameplan to succeed more in this one. 

Berlin 21-20

[RuskieTitan]

Strike where the enemy is weak. Berlin hits the Smugglers at their weak point on defense, and pulls away in the second half.