2021 Week 15 GDT Steelers vs. Titans

[AFF]

19 minutes ago, cjfollett said:

It would have been interesting if Darrisaw made it past Minnesota.

Yea I woulda took Darrisaw over Harris.

[Dcash4]

2 hours ago, 43M said:

However, as talented as Harris might be....he, and ALL RBs, are HUGELY reliant on the OLine to do their job in order for them to have success.    I know this isnt exactly ground-breaking news, but I always laugh when people want to draft RBs early when you have no ******* OLine to block for them.

I am not disagreeing with the total point, but this part I just wanted to touch on. This seems like a single year view and ignores that you can actually get better at the position group over the 4-5 year contract of that drafted player. The draft has become a very NOW solution, but it's true value is still the future. 

The sweet spot for drafting RB's is the late first/early second where player individual value is too great. I look at talent as two separate buckets: Straight football talent and weighted positional value. I will use the Nick Chubb example: Nick Chubb is not the 35th best football player taken in the 2018 draft. BUT the RB value drops him. Eventually that late first/early second pick -- you are getting a top 15 football player at a much lower value. 

Perfect world (but reasonable) scenario: We get a G in FA, draft a LT and guys like Green and Dotson take the 2/3 year steps in the right direction -- we are already in a much better place in Najee year 2. Take another step further in 2023, and we are on the Derrick Henry path. 

Pat and Najee are very much picks that do help now...but they can also be gigantic 3/5 year building blocks if things fall right. No one would look back on that talking about year 1 situation if certain things work out. 

2 hours ago, 43M said:

If I were a GM or coach, I would legit never even remotely consider drafting RB until round 3....unless my team was absolutely stacked at most positions and it was a pretty special player that could add alot to the team.

You wouldn't be very happy with your outcome. I've done this homework before: round 2/3 are the sweet spots. It's a myth that you can get "running backs anywhere" (not saying you are saying that, just the general thought). 

[Steeler Hitman]

2 hours ago, 43M said:

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It depends who you talk to.   I think MOST people realize, in todays league, RB is not really a premier position.

Agreed. The game has evolved and changed from what it has been and you can do things with a solid back versus a "franchise back" or HOF caliber back which everyone coveted years ago. But, I still believe that there is a difference between good and great even at RB. A lot depends on system, development, style, and opportunity. I don't think Lev Bell is Najee Harris as an overall talent, but I believe that he is mentioned as a HOF caliber RB had he stayed in Pittsburgh. This team, its OL, and style were a perfect match for his skillset. I believe that Bell is a better all around RB talent than with all due respect to Cowboys Nation and Blue Phi Nation, Emmitt Smith. Smith has a much higher overall pedigree and a lot of other boxes that you would check maturity wise, image, etc. that go into being a HOF'er, but from a purely athletic or talent standpoint, I would give Bell the edge. 

We saw how Bell was outside of Pittsburgh as well. A lot may have been time off rust and other issues, but he wasn't the same back outside of Pittsburgh and the Steelers OL and Bell both suffered without each other. P.S. as well as us fans. 🙁

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I remember getting into arguments in here over drafting Bell several years ago, and then even this year when the possibility of drafting Harris or Etienne was mentioned.

I didn't agree with your take on Harris, but yes you have always taken this position and made some very valid points to support your position as well. 

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If anyone wants to know why I hate drafting RBs high, the Steelers drafting Harris in the first round is the perfect example.

The main reason why I would disagree with you or anyone else here is: Do not pass on the better talent or BPA based on other need or team issues. That usually bites you in the tail 9 out of 10 times. I have seen Najee make runs and make people miss that Bell and Connor both could not. Maybe I am over-estimating Najee's talent, but I see him as a generational talent.  If he gets some blocking and stays healthy, he will put up insane numbers running and receiving.  He is good enough to be able elude and evade occasional mishaps. Right now it is the norm. I don't think he and Etienne are in the same class at RB.  

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Before I continue, let me just say that I think Harris is a really good player with a lot to offer, and I was...okay-ish drafting him, if only because there wasn't a ton of better value on the board when we picked, and RB was a clear need on a team that decided to bring back a 39 year old. shell-of-his-former-self QB that needed all the help he could get.

My point exactly. You just don't pass on that. 

 

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However, as talented as Harris might be....he, and ALL RBs, are HUGELY reliant on the OLine to do their job in order for them to have success. 

Truthfully as is every other position on offense. The game is still won in the trenches. Receivers need time to run routes. QB's need time to let plays develop. RB's need patience as well. Those are all contingent upon good blocking. Jim Brown and Eric Dickerson would struggle with our current OL. 

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I know this isn't exactly ground-breaking news, but I always laugh when people want to draft RBs early when you have no ******* OLine to block for them. 

I also think that you have to realize that it sometimes takes a few seasons to get everything that you need. You get your RB, C, and LT this year. You get your RG and RT this year. Add a stop gap veteran OL or two and you have an improved OL, pass blocking and rushing attack with an elite RB, not an average one. The team didn't get a chance to draft a Penne Sewell or Christian Darrisaw. This was also an unusually deep draft for LT.  Most say that in normal years Dan Moore would have been a second rounder instead of a fourth rounder. 

Steelers are drafting typically in the 20's and you don't get to draft Quentin Nelson, Sewell or others there. Truthfully the Steelers have done at WR what you think they should at RB. A lot of teams covet WR's with a top pick and there are many who could be had later as well. It depends on what your team covets or values. 

 

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I'm not big on taking RB in the first round under ANY circumstances outside of the team being stacked and the RB being a versatile weapon....but Harris never stood a chance this year, and when it comes to RB, you need to be able to utilize them effectively IMMEDIATELY.

Could you imagine the Steelers ground game without Najee? 🥶 It would be shades of last year, but even worse. Like I said, Jim Brown and Eric Dickerson would struggle to gain yardage with the current OL.

 

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This is another reason I want to move on from Colbert....because he doesn't seem too interested in trading down.   They will reach or take a luxury pick before trading down, which really annoys me.   I know the opportunities for trading down aren't always there and I accept that, but I don't believe for a second that they couldn't have traded down even once instead of drafting guys like Artie Burns, Terrell Edmunds and/or Najee Harris.

Two things here:

1. I don't think they could have traded down and got Harris. If they didn't draft him the Jaguars or Bills would have. And again, not sure of a talent who was better or higher ranked than Najee there either. 

2. Agree with the trade down part completely. Many of us have suggested that many times. The examples that you gave are spot on except Najee (lol).

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Here is the reality....a guy like James Conner would've been perfectly fine for us if not for our run blocking going to complete dog **** after Munch left.

Agreed. 

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The year Leveon held out, Conner played just as well as Bell ever did up until he got hurt.     I know Conner being oft-injured was a big reason we let him go, but the point is....a guy like Najee Harris would be considered much more "talented" than James Conner, but the fact is, he isn't going to offer much more behind a terrible line than a slightly less talented, 3rd round RB like Conner will.

I agree that Connor with blocking would have been more than acceptable. We see that in Arizona. However, the RB greatness of Najee is showing with what he has achieved behind a mediocre and inexperienced OL. I think that they will be better with more experience, some additions and some subtractions next year. There is a difference between getting by and greatness. Trent Dilfer won a SB, but man did the stars align and he had a world class defense. Imagine what they could have done with a great QB? The Steelers could win with Connor, but all the other pieces didn't fall into place. A great RB has kept this offense  and ground attack from being complete do-do brown!💩💩💩

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If I were a GM or coach, I would legit never even remotely consider drafting RB until round 3....unless my team was absolutely stacked at most positions and it was a pretty special player that could add alot to the team.

I just don't think you put yourself in a box like that. We took a punter in the third round. Traded up to get him as well. He was a talent, but didn't work out more because of health than athleticism or ability. I am not going to take a kicker or punter in the first round unless it is Supertoe! 😁

 

2 hours ago, warfelg said:

100%. And given in most cases that a pick 2-3 later were traded tells me someone was trying to move up. I think teams just don’t try because they know Colbert isn’t interested. 
 

2016 - Pick behind us the Broncos moved up for Paxton Lynch and gave up 31 and 94. Instead we take Burns. Could have had Chris Jones or Xavier Howard instead. In the 94 range Justin Simmons was there. 
 

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2018 - Took Edmunds. 4 picks later Balt gave up 2 2nds and a 4th. Turay, Bates, Donte Jackson. With the 4th Avonte Maddox. (This was the Lamar Jackson trade FWIW) 

That one really frustrated me. The talent wasn't there and they could have traded down and still got him or Bates. I was actually on the Darius Leonard and Fred Warner trains that year. I thought both were second to third round talents that the Steelers could have been in better position to draft as well higher in those rounds. Also could have added more quality depth at some other positions as well. 

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2019 - We move up for Bush. Picks right after us were GB giving up a 1st and 2 4ths, Philly giving up a 1st/4th/6th. 

This is why you don't pass on talent because ILB would have been taken care of. They could have stayed at 20 and drafted TE Noah Fant as well if I recall. How much better are the Steelers at TE with the Law Firm of Fant and Freiermuth?
 

What’s strange to me is they seem to come in waves of a few years with good high picks based on guys falling. Then a few down years based on the overspending to keep those guys and needing to draft positions. 
 

I’ve pounded the table on this Colbert problem where he’s great when talent lands in his lap. He can make the easy call picks all day. He’s not a good assessment of talent when it comes to picking a need. 
 

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How about this one: 2008 takes Mendenhall with 4 of the next five RBs taken being Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Jamal Charles. 

I thought Mendenhall was a stud. But this certainly supports the argument that you and 43mafia make. I am still crying over the second round pick that didn't work out in Limus "stone Hands" Sweed! 😡

 

49 minutes ago, cjfollett said:

It would have been interesting if Darrisaw made it past Minnesota.

I think that you take the franchise LT. Most people had a higher grade on Darrisaw than Najee based on position. As much as I am defending the pick, I honestly would say take the LT there. You get a 10-12 year player that protects your QB over a 4-(8 year if lucky that he stays healthy and doesn't ask for the moon and stars in salary). 

[cjfollett]

36 minutes ago, Steeler Hitman said:

I think that you take the franchise LT. Most people had a higher grade on Darrisaw than Najee based on position. As much as I am defending the pick, I honestly would say take the LT there. You get a 10-12 year player that protects your QB over a 4-(8 year if lucky that he stays healthy and doesn't ask for the moon and stars in salary). 

Yes, that's what would have made it interesting. The Steelers likely had their draft card ready to go early in that draft since all indications were they were drafting Najee Harris at 24. I think most mocks had Darrisaw going much higher than 23, so when he was dropping I was thinking DeCastro redux!

What would have also been interesting is if some team had taken Harris before the Steelers. A lot of people wanted Etienne, but I was hoping for Eric Stokes or a trade down. 

Oh well, it is what it is. 

[warfelg]

 

[43M]

4 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

I am not disagreeing with the total point, but this part I just wanted to touch on. This seems like a single year view and ignores that you can actually get better at the position group over the 4-5 year contract of that drafted player. The draft has become a very NOW solution, but it's true value is still the future. 

The sweet spot for drafting RB's is the late first/early second where player individual value is too great. I look at talent as two separate buckets: Straight football talent and weighted positional value. I will use the Nick Chubb example: Nick Chubb is not the 35th best football player taken in the 2018 draft. BUT the RB value drops him. Eventually that late first/early second pick -- you are getting a top 15 football player at a much lower value. 

You wouldn't be very happy with your outcome. I've done this homework before: round 2/3 are the sweet spots. It's a myth that you can get "running backs anywhere" (not saying you are saying that, just the general thought). 

Few things....

1)  Sweet spot for WHAT though?   Feature backs?    Thats my point though...Im not investing much in a franchise back when other areas of the team, especially OL, is depleted or severely lacking.

2)   The Nick Chubb scenario is a cherry picked example, though.   Yes, he worked out for the best and the Browns got great value for him, but you can do that with any position.   You can also look at many examples of horrid draft values for RBs early in the draft.   

Obviously youre going to find better talents earlier in the draft, regardless of position.   My point is, though, I wouldnt spend an early pick on a RB unless a) they were easily the best value at a position of need, and b) I felt had the means of utiluzing them immediately.   With RBs, the logic of "sometimes it takes a couple years" doesnt fly with me because RBs have too short of a shelf life and often aren't worth huge 2nd contracts.  So 2 or 3 years and you may only have another year or two before you move on or have to pay money to a position that isnt really worth it.

3)   You dont need a top 5, top 10 or even top 16 RB to be consistently successful in todays league.   Its nice to have, sure, but if you are lacking in other areas, RB is a pretty irrelevant position.   

While I have nothing against Najee, our running game wouldnt have been notably worse this year even if we hadnt drafted him.   Not a knock on Harris, but rather that we weren't built well enough to put a RB in a position to be successful, regardless of who it was.

[43M]

3 hours ago, Steeler Hitman said:

The main reason why I would disagree with you or anyone else here is: Do not pass on the better talent or BPA based on other need or team issues.

I disagree.   You have to factor in positional value, needs, scheme fit, and whether or not that piece is the best fit for your current team.

I dont feel ANY RB is a good pick early on when you have a laughably bad OLine....among other deficiencies.

4 hours ago, Steeler Hitman said:

My point exactly. You just don't pass on that. 

I would.    This season is showing why.

As talented as Najee may be, he is wasted with us....as any RB would be.

4 hours ago, Steeler Hitman said:

Could you imagine the Steelers ground game without Najee? 🥶 It would be shades of last year, but even worse. Like I said, Jim Brown and Eric Dickerson would struggle to gain yardage with the current OL.

 

This is exactly my point, though.

Why would you invest a high pick into a position with a short shelf life when you have, arguably, the worst run blocking line in the NFL?

If you disagree...fair enough....but there is literally nothing you can say that would change my mind in regards to spending a high pick on a RB when you have no OL in front of them.

[August4th]

 

[Dcash4]

3 hours ago, 43M said:

The Nick Chubb scenario is a cherry picked example, though.   Yes, he worked out for the best and the Browns got great value for him, but you can do that with any position.   You can also look at many examples of horrid draft values for RBs early in the draft.

Had some other thoughts written out on my computer and then forgot about it so I’ll just hit the highlights from my phone. It’s not really cherry picked when I could have picked from multiple options. Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, Derek Henry, Joe Mixon…even a guy like Javonte Williams is showing early returns on that draft spot early in the second. That’s not just a list of good backs, that’s a list of some of the top backs in the NFL. It’s where, like I mentioned, pure football talent gets you a player who ranks a lot higher than their value based draft slot. The early second to mid third is the money spot for quality lead backs. 

But Chubb had another part of the example I forgot to add the first time. His team had a decent IOL at the time, but we’re starting Greg Robinson and Chis Hubbard at tackle. Do we think they regret having a top 3 back because their offensive line wasn’t as strong first? He is a huge reason for their offensive success. It CAN get better, and it can still happen relatively quickly. 

I do absolutely agree with you in general about needing the running back life cycle to be useful during contract 1. I just don’t think a down first year means it’s a waste. 

4 hours ago, 43M said:

3)   You dont need a top 5, top 10 or even top 16 RB to be consistently successful in todays league.   Its nice to have, sure, but if you are lacking in other areas, RB is a pretty irrelevant position.   

My knee jerk reaction is to say this isn’t true. Or at least the counter to it is that those teams have Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. 

I just think if your talking about consistency in winning and look at non-Aaron Rodgers type QB teams - Minnesota, Tennessee, LA Rams all jump to mind. Two of those teams have players listed above, the other one has one of the best minds in NFL offense with a heavy focus on the run game. 

I’ll have to actually look into it tomorrow. I’d be interested to see what the numbers spit back. Because I think of the Patriots who had Tom Brady as the pillar of success….but there were still built on running the football and defense. Something they are still doing at an extremely high level right now without Brady. 

[warfelg]

10 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

My knee jerk reaction is to say this isn’t true. Or at least the counter to it is that those teams have Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. 

I agree.....somewhat.....with what @43M is putting down.  CEH actually runs the ball well, they just don't run the ball a lot.  Wanna guess how many 20+ rush games he's had in his career?  Hint it's less than the number of fingers on one hand.  He's had more games with less than 10 rushes than more than 20.  Add in a bad line at the end of last year and the start of this year and it impacts it more.  In Buffalo they've run the ball with all players not named Josh Allen less than Najee Harris....alone.  Yet all those backs combined are performing better than Najee Harris.

They might not have top 16 backs, ut they could have top half rush games if they stick with it.  I would have never considered NE a place that has top RB's but they have a very effective run game.  To me it's kinda like the Shanahan inside zone scheme.  Most those RB's go elsewhere and suck, but that's because they know what works for them and they try to draft to fit that.

In fact where I think some teams do really well with things like that is that even though they have RB's that are more "job" based, they fit so well that they can still do what they are good at.  

 

Sorry this is kinda random flow of thought bt I'll add this because we saw it when the OL was good:

When you are good at building an OL you can pick a later guy at RB and be fine with the rush game.  When you look at the top 10 in rush yards this year you got: Taylor (good line), Mixon (average line), Cook (average line), Henry (good line), Chubb (good line), Harris (crap line), Gibson (good line), Elliott (good line), Fournette (good line), Jackson (good line).  Wanna go next 5? Mitchell (SF, good line), Harris (NE, good line), Williams (good line), Ekeler (good line), Gordon (Den, good line).  Of that entire group you have 2 1st round picks, 1 bad line.  And I would argue in the top 10, 4 are not top 16 RB's in the NFL, 1's a QB.  1 of the next 5 is a top 16 RB.

Basically my long story short:

If we get back to building the line we can get back to "finding" RB's and eing able to move on when they need to be paid.

With that I want to look at something interesting.  Since drafting Ben here's out top 3 round OL we've selected: Max Starks (3, 75, 2004), Trai Essex (3, 93, 2005), Kraid Ubrik (3, 79, 2009), Maurkice Pouncey (1, 18, 2010), Marcus Gilbert (2, 63, 2011), David Decastro (1, 24, 2012), Mike Adams (2, 56, 2012), Chucks Okorafor (3, 92, 2018), Kendrick Green (3, 87, 2021).

So we haven't really invested into the OL.  2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks, 5 3rd round picks in 17 years. 2 great picks, 4 eh picks, 2 straight up busts, 1 TBD.  That's not the recipe for a good OL.  So when you are that underinvested in the OL, taking a RB early is a massive mistake.

 

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

CEH actually runs the ball well, they just don't run the ball a lot.  Wanna guess how many 20+ rush games he's had in his career?  Hint it's less than the number of fingers on one hand.  He's had more games with less than 10 rushes than more than 20.  Add in a bad line at the end of last year and the start of this year and it impacts it more.  In Buffalo they've run the ball with all players not named Josh Allen less than Najee Harris....alone.  Yet all those backs combined are performing better than Najee Harris.

Both of these go back to what I said above -- who are the teams that don't need to prioritize the run game? Teams with god-like QB's. We plan on getting one? Because if so, count me on board with not "needing" a good back. 

And too be fair to the bold (checked this out when I was sitting with the 1st overall pick in a keeper league thinking about taking him), those 3 games last year came in blow outs where he didn't touch the field in the 4th and this year's single digit contest was the one he was hurt. Still averages 16 touches a game though, despite game flow games like those. 

And....well, I just don't agree about the Bills back performing better. I get YPC is better for Singletary, at least, but swap those guys here and Najee there and that's just not the same. It all goes back to those QB's. You promise me we get a top 5 guy, I am on board with whatever RB plan you wanna go with. But the majority of teams that continually have success that don't have those QB's -- they have all purpose RB's or coaches who carry the load. IMO...that's our transition. 

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

Taylor (good line), Mixon (average line), Cook (average line), Henry (good line), Chubb (good line), Harris (crap line), Gibson (good line), Elliott (good line), Fournette (good line), Jackson (good line).  Wanna go next 5? Mitchell (SF, good line), Harris (NE, good line), Williams (good line), Ekeler (good line), Gordon (Den, good line). 

This is where the crux of my original statement comes from: Re-do this list with their starting lines at their time of being drafted. Mixon absolutely did not have a good O-Line, neither did Cook. Ekeler most certainly did not either. Chubb had a decent interior, but was book ended by Greg Robinson and Chris Hubbard. (and Jackson does not have a good line...). 

Yes, we drafted a RB into a bad O-Line situation, but it doesn't HAVE to stay that way forever -- which is what it feels like the conversation is always alluding too.  Hell, it could be monumentally better even just by next year. What I am saying is that I don't think that any Vikings fans look at Dalvin Cook and say "BuT wE CoUlDa HaD a TaCkLe!". 

IMO, this teams knows the future, outside of landing the luckiest dart throw in finding an All-World type QB that falls into their laps, is leaning on their 3 All-Pro defense and having a ball control offense supported heavily by the running game (and all the PA bells and whistles that I include when I say "Run game") -- that's the model that works in the NFL without the top tier QB. They drafted who they thought was the most talented player (their options were the 6th best OL or the 1st overall RB -- this goes back to my "sweet spot" comments). 

Where none of this works after taking Najee and Pat (🥰) is if they -- for whatever crazy reason -- say, "we're good!" and stick with Banner on contract at RT and re-sign Turner at RG and think continuity will push us forward.  

TLDR: The draft presents immediate help, but its main support is still the long term (4-5 year) solutions it provides. The O-Line doesnt have to be the same throughout Najee's entire career -- even if its a short one at the position. The Najee (and Pat) pick look a lot better if they focus assets on rebuilding the O-Line., which they still 100% can do. 

[CKSteeler]

Joe Greene says a whole lot of Steelers fans don't know crap about football if they think Ben is done.

https://steelersdepot.com/2021/12/joe-greene-hopes-to-see-big-ben-back-in-2022-says-people-who-think-hes-finished-dont-know-crap-about-football/

[AFF]

34 minutes ago, CKSteeler said:

Joe Greene says a whole lot of Steelers fans don't know crap about football if they think Ben is done.

https://steelersdepot.com/2021/12/joe-greene-hopes-to-see-big-ben-back-in-2022-says-people-who-think-hes-finished-dont-know-crap-about-football/

Is he done?....no

Is he what he was 4-5 years ago?....also no.

If the personnel(mostly OL) and maybe an OC change were to change, I could see him being above average overall.

[AFF]

1 hour ago, Dcash4 said:

TLDR: The draft presents immediate help, but its main support is still the long term (4-5 year) solutions it provides. The O-Line doesnt have to be the same throughout Najee's entire career -- even if its a short one at the position. The Najee (and Pat) pick look a lot better if they focus assets on rebuilding the O-Line., which they still 100% can do. 

I think they know it needs addressed no matter what they wanna do going forward at QB...I truly think they drop some serious $$$ in FA on the OL.

[MOSteelers56]

31 minutes ago, AFF said:

Is he done?....no

Is he what he was 4-5 years ago?....also no.

If the personnel(mostly OL) and maybe an OC change were to change, I could see him being above average overall.

Exactly this. Ben looked washed at the beginning of the year. He quietly turned it around about 4 games into the season and has been playing a lot better. Not good enough to win with an offensive line like this, but a lot better than the beginning of the year.