tab Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 9 hours ago, Chargers said: This will be team watch out for next season. dont patronize me 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 He's definitely outperformed his team's talent level by like 2 wins already so sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 7 hours ago, ET80 said: Twice against the Jags - the one team that is more dysfunctional than Houston. You want to play those two cards as evidence on your favor, then maybe you don't know as much as you think, eh? Let's try this - did this locker room fight hard in the 31-0 loss to Indianapolis? Or how about the 31-3 loss to Indy at home? The 31-5 loss to Hopkins, Watt and Arizona? The 40-0 loss to Buffalo? Sure, you have four wins. I've got four losses where the team packed it in real early (and another seven losses where it really wasn't into the game to begin with, either). I mean im not trying to insult you but your team is how we say in the business, severely lacking in talent. Bad losses are inevitable, heck my Chiefs have lost badly this year with great talent/coaching. It happens. Doesnt mean your team isnt fighting for its coach. which they showed yesterday, despite having a depleted roster of their own, no playoff hopes, depth guys stepped up to make plays, repeatedly. and yall outcoached young Staley who just went toe to toe with Reid 10 days before. i mean the situation you Texans fans have had to deal with since your inception…Im sorry. Brutal looking time from afar. Culley is Culley a rookie HC himself. I think if you guys could get him some talent he might acquit himself well with it. Or he might flop, and yall get a new coach in a couple years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 29 minutes ago, Chiefer said: I mean im not trying to insult you but your team is how we say in the business, severely lacking in talent ... really? Wow, I was totally unaware! Thank you for opening my eyes, Mr. "I only watched the Texans once this season" I don't know how I would have known otherwise. (I feel as if I need to let you know that this is sarcasm... ) 29 minutes ago, Chiefer said: Bad losses are inevitable, heck my Chiefs have lost badly this year with great talent/coaching. It happens. Doesnt mean your team isnt fighting for its coach. If it was just a bad loss, I wouldn't have brought it up. It was how the team was performing in said losses, you saw people giving up on plays. (Take my word for it - it wasn't my first Texans game of the season). 29 minutes ago, Chiefer said: which they showed yesterday, despite having a depleted roster of their own, no playoff hopes, depth guys stepped up to make plays, repeatedly. and yall outcoached young Staley who just went toe to toe with Reid 10 days before. LAC has a very longstanding reputation of playing up or down to their opponent - we saw it this year in the loss to Denver, we saw it last week when they went toe to toe against KC. Yesterday wasn't an endorsement for Houston, it's an indictment against Los Angeles, AFC edition. Is that possible? A team who is currently a game up over .500, without several of their key players on both sides of the ball giving up 150+ yards to Rex Burkhead (who hasn't had a 100+ yard game in nearly four years) just might be falling apart after an emotional loss to a divisional opponent that pretty much pushes them on the outside of the bubble for the playoffs? Or does that not fit your narrative? 29 minutes ago, Chiefer said: I mean the situation you Texans fans have had to deal with since your inception…Im sorry. Couldn't care less, to be honest. Let Cal's franchise burn. 29 minutes ago, Chiefer said: Brutal looking time from afar. Likewise for KC for nearly 25 years, but I bet that's news for you. Remind me to tell you about the Brodie Croyle or Matt Cassel years - might be quite the lesson for you. 29 minutes ago, Chiefer said: Culley is Culley a rookie HC himself. I think if you guys could get him some talent he might acquit himself well with it. Or he might flop, and yall get a new coach in a couple years. Pretty certain it's a flop, but... whatever helps you sleep at night, I guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awsi Dooger Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 The Texans have only been a double digit underdog 6 times. But let's say the oddsmakers knew Houston would be exactly a 10 point underdog every game. Their season win over/under wouldn't be 0. It would be 3, with some juice on the under. There are win probabilities assigned to every number. That's how the win totals are made. It has nothing to do with feel or a subjective guess. An estimated pointspread is assigned to every game for every team. Then the associated money lines (straight up odds) are applied to each one. The totality is plugged into the mathematical formula. The result spits out the over/under. Here is a link that demonstrates how well the results follow the money line expectancy. The spread to money line chart is lower in the scroll: https://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-spread-to-moneyline-conversion/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notthatbluestuff Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 5 hours ago, ET80 said: You had a decade of Peyton Manning, followed up by a half decade of Andrew Luck! Your cup runneth over. Can't argue with that - I'll concede this one, sir. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 hour ago, notthatbluestuff said: Can't argue with that - I'll concede this one, sir. I honestly enjoyed it. Dude was one of my favorite players, still is a favorite of mine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 20 hours ago, Awsi Dooger said: The Texans haven't exceeded anything. Fans have preposterous grasp of probability. The NFL is so balanced in terms of personnel that even the absolute worst teams will be small underdogs in one game after another, leading to decent chance of winning and therefore season win projection in the 4 to 5 range. That's exactly where Houston was. There is no such thing as 0-2 win expectation in the NFL. Houston opened as high as 5 wins with most joints at 4.5. That was in May after the draft. The Watson situation was not as clear cut at that stage. Fast forward to early September. The consensus over/under was 4 with juice on the under. There were a few misguided joints who moved the number down to 3.5 with juice on the over. That created a middle opportunity. Let's just say there are lots of sharp guys who were thrilled with Houston's win today, but want them to go no further. They played under 5 in May and over 3.5 in September. It's now sitting on a pure middle. I knew guys in Las Vegas who specialized in that type of thing. During my era in town there was a guy named Kaufman who devoted 90% of his time to future odds and season win totals. He didn't pretend to be able to deal with day to day odds on various sports. But he saw the flaw in the futures market where the early numbers were not adjusted at the extreme. Kaufman would identify the obvious teams with public sentiment heavily in one direction, and play it that way early. He knew he could either sit with the advantage number or play it back the other way at the last minute, setting up a middle and/or scalp. It's one thing to say, "I think the Texans win more than 2 games." They play the Jags twice, that's not exactly an outrageous suggestion. The surprising thing here is that they beat the Titans (on the road!) and the Chargers, both of whom are projected playoff teams. I sincerely doubt anyone in Vegas projected that, mathematical formula or not. 11 hours ago, Chiefer said: which they showed yesterday, despite having a depleted roster of their own, no playoff hopes, depth guys stepped up to make plays, repeatedly. None of which has anything to do with the coach. All of those players are playing for their jobs. It's why it's silly when anyone claims an NFL team is tanking--the players themselves have no incentive to do so. Even if guys want out of Houston, they're not likely to get a shot elsewhere if everybody sees them quitting on their team on the field. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 7 hours ago, Blue said: None of which has anything to do with the coach. All of those players are playing for their jobs. Bingo - pretty much half of this roster is on a one year deal, the Texans are the Last Chance U of the NFL. Non-rookies on multi year deals, or guys who have suitors in Free Agency? Traded, cut or halfway out the door for the most part. Don't be surprised if Laremy Tunsil is traded this off-season, because he's clearly looking for the door - he's been dealing with a three week injury for the last nine weeks. Cooks is probably looking for another trade, Reid is probably going to head to Miami or Arizona (where other Texans migrate to after their time here) Randall Cobb, Charles Ominehu and Mark Ingram actively looked for the door midway through the season (and got their wish in trades) Vernon Hargreaves was a mid season cut, Whitney Mercilius was a mid season cut (which added to dead cap in 2022) Zach Cunningham was a mid season cut (which added over $12mm to dead cap). You don't have THIS sort of exodus from an organization if everyone is "playing hard" for a coach. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y*so*blu Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Relatively speaking, yes. I had them getting two wins and they've managed four, so maybe the Texans are better than we thought. Or maybe the league is so bad this year that the distance between good teams and bad teams is shorter than ever. 😅 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 (edited) The Texans beat the Jags twice. We thought the Jags would be better with Lawrence. They severely downgraded at QB this year based on the play of Minshew/Glennon/Luton vs rookie Lawrence Rookie Josh Rosen 66.7 rating with 11 TDs and 14 picks 3-10 record Rookie Trevor Lawrence 70.6 rating with 9 TDs 14 picks 2-13 record Sweeping them proves nothing other than they get to pick before you do. Bully for them beating the Titans and the Chargers. They lost their other 11 games. I dare them to load up on Culley, Mills, and the spirit of righteousness next season. Its been fun making fun of them and it will be so next year too if they go that way. Edited December 29, 2021 by SkippyX 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 I had them losing more games by 20+ than they win So far its 5* to 4 (they would have 6 if the Rams kept playing in the 4th quarter of a 38-0 blowout) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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