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Week 17 GDT - Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers


J-ALL-DAY

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I just re-watched the game. Here some of my takeaways:

What I liked from Lance

  • Compton gave up a ton of pressure and some of those would've been sacks with Jimmy back there. Lance escaped it all and made positive plays each time. For example, the 1st play of the second drive of the game, Compton run blocks on a pass play and the DE runs right by him and is immediately in Lance's face. Lance shrugs off the tackle and hits Mitchell for a 3-yard gain. If Jimmy was back there, this would've been a 9-yard sack. 
  • When Lance grips it and rips it, he's money. Two of his best throws were quick hits on slants that were placed perfectly for big gains. 
  • 1st & 10 0:11 Q1 - PA roll out to the left, Lance has the RE on him quickly. The play is to Kittle in the flat and as Lance is winding up, he sees the defender closing on Kittle. He resets his hands as he’s still back peddling away from the RE and throws a fade away bullet to Sherfield for a 12-yard gain. He could’ve stayed in structure and hit kittle for a 2-4 yard gain, but knows his athleticism will allow him to take a second shot deeper downfield. With Jimmy, this would’ve been a batted pass, sack, or 2-4 yard gain to Kittle.
  • 3rd & 4 6:33 Q3 - Compton gives up pressure, which prevents Lance from stepping into his throw. Lance works his way through it and instead of running for a short gain, he finds Hasty with a cross-body touch pass for the 1st. Real nice heads-up play by Lance here. This is a growth moment for him, IMO.
  • 2nd & 8 2:25 Q3 - Lance “canned” the call after reading the defense then hit Deebo in the numbers for what should’ve been a 12-yard completion at minimum, but Deebo drops it. Great decision all around by Lance here. 

What I didn't Like from Lance

  • He struggled on the short passes in the flat. He either put them in the wrong place or missed the receiver completely. He doesn't look comfortable throwing those yet. 
  • His un-inspiring running. We know he's not Lamar or Kyler back there, but he's trying too hard to run through defenders. Perfect example - 3rd & 2 5:08 Q1 - Lance makes the right decision to keep it on the zone read, but forgets he’s not playing in college anymore. Instead of running full steam right at the 1st down marker, he decides to slow down and lower his shoulder to Justin Reid. He gains a yard on the play.
  • He needs to throw with more touch. He had two should-be INTs that were dropped. One was a shotgun shot to the Kirksey's face, which he had no chance at catching, but if he would've put some touch on it, he would've had Sherfield for a big gain. 

There were some big missed opportunities to blow this game wide open - just like his first start. It's all there, it just needs to be refined. A costly drop and some bad decisions by Lance prevented them from dropping 30+ on the Texans.

 

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22 hours ago, JIllg said:

Great point. The Shanny scheme is rough on LBs in general unless you play more man coverage. He loves putting them in like 3 different conflicts at once in run and pass fits. I’d always advocate more man against us, and I think our zone/man splits on offense back that up if I remember that graph correctly lol.

This brings up a great point about Lance's mobility and this system - if you are worried about the qb breaking contain and gashing you for big gains, it can force you to play more zone coverage 

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On 1/2/2022 at 4:43 PM, straighthate said:

I don’t understand how they give the Niners an 81% chance of getting in and saints a 27% chance. Chance of saints beating eagles, pretty darn good.  Chance of Niners beating rams in LA, not nearly as good. Saints will be favorites and Niners will be underdogs. Seems to me saints have the higher probability. 

It's actually really simple math 

For the saints to get in, they need the niners to lose, AND they need to win. So for simplicity sake lets say both games are 50/50 coin flips, the saints would have a 25% chance to make the playoffs, because you take that 50% chance the niners lose, and then multiply it by the 50% chance the saints win (.5*.5=.25)

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16 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

It was going to hit us at some point. I'm guessing K'waun and Dontae are vaccinated so they should be back for the game as long as they don't show any symptoms.

Come on E-Man, we need you this week!

We added your boy Jimmie Ward to the Covid list as well according to webzone. 

Quote

The San Francisco 49ers announced that safety Jimmie Ward has been added to the reserve/COVID-19 list. The team also announced the following roster moves.


https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/154430-49ers-jimmie-reserve-covid-announce-other-roster-moves/

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8 hours ago, N4L said:

It's actually really simple math 

For the saints to get in, they need the niners to lose, AND they need to win. So for simplicity sake lets say both games are 50/50 coin flips, the saints would have a 25% chance to make the playoffs, because you take that 50% chance the niners lose, and then multiply it by the 50% chance the saints win (.5*.5=.25)

Yeah, I have basic math skills. But I don’t think it’s 50/50 on both those games. And to have a .27% chance means there’s an average of 52% chance in both games. I don’t know the odds for each individual game, but I would think both the saints and rams have much higher than a 52% chance of winning. 

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