broncosfan_101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said: I read somewhere recently about the track record of QB’s picked in the first round outside the top 10. Since 2009, that list is: Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden, EJ Manuel, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Paxton Lynch, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Dwayne Haskins, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett 15 guys, 10 misses, another probable miss in Pickett but let’s give him another year or two, Justin Fields could go either way at this point. Are we calling Jordan Love a win? I think we are. Watson, Jackson, probably Love, maybe Fields. That doesn’t seem like a great hit rate. If you wanted to build a narrative, I think it would be QB-needy teams tried to convince themselves that they saw something in a guy out of pure desperation. And I don’t think it’s a coincidence that 2/3 hits here were to two of the most stable franchises in the NFL. But who knows what’s causal and what’s correlational. Maybe it’s worth the shot with our pick between a Penix or a Nix? I just noticed something that all the hits and the maybe hit have in common here. And it’s something that Penix also has. It’s a thing that has historically caused these players to be overlooked at this particular position. And I don’t remember Watson’s draft ranking (I feel like most mocks had him top 10?), but I do know that Jackson, Love, and Fields all slid on draft day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Helicopter Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 When some were discussing tanking, there was talk about staying away from all QB's (in Round 1) not named Caleb or Drake. Perhaps the college season played out different than expected? I don't like reaching for anyone. We should always be thinking about the future and leveraging our players and draft picks accordingly. There's always a can't miss player. Not sold on giving up resources. If we can't draft, we are hosed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Helicopter Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 50 minutes ago, broncos67 said: But there is a need to blow things up lol. This team might, emphasis on might, finish above .500. The OL is pretty well set. What else should we be building? PFF grades us Top 10. We have McGlinchey and Powers on large deals (both of whom Payton was coach when we signed), Meinerz on the cheap, Bolles having a career year, and Cush coming off a career year. The DL in this draft stinks outside of Jer'Zhan Newton. Kicking the can (again) on QB when we're (again) in position to take one would be a baffing move. The only way it's fine is if we eat the entire dead cap of Russ in one year, start Stidham and off-load a bunch of hefty vet contracts, and tank for next season. Spending a premium pick on OL would seem to be a bit of a waste right now. The time is now to get the QB if there's one we like. I don't think we should blow things up. Trading high priced players I'm fine with. Letting Russ go I'm also fine with. But no reason to accumulate draft picks for the sake of accumulation. We have talent and it's not easy to come by. Keep what we can. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 40 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said: I read somewhere recently about the track record of QB’s picked in the first round outside the top 10. Since 2009, that list is: Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden, EJ Manuel, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Paxton Lynch, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Dwayne Haskins, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett 15 guys, 10 misses, another probable miss in Pickett but let’s give him another year or two, Justin Fields could go either way at this point. Are we calling Jordan Love a win? I think we are. Watson, Jackson, probably Love, maybe Fields. That doesn’t seem like a great hit rate. If you wanted to build a narrative, I think it would be QB-needy teams tried to convince themselves that they saw something in a guy out of pure desperation. And I don’t think it’s a coincidence that 2/3 hits here were to two of the most stable franchises in the NFL. But who knows what’s causal and what’s correlational. Maybe it’s worth the shot with our pick between a Penix or a Nix? Watson got dinged for his average athletic profile. Early success and all the qb intangible skills though. Jordan Love & Lamar Jackson were known projects. Fields tbh was also known to be that guy. The other 11 have 2 common elements - all were late success stories. And didn’t have elite ceiling tools. The late success issue is my concern with everyone outside Maye / Williams…and Penix. Daniels has a special toolset which helps but his late success is a warning flag (but you can justify it if the tool ceiling is great). Penix injury concern is great enough to say you don’t want him in R1. But imo out of all the rest if he can avoid injury has the best chance of success. The rest of the non top 10 guys have the late success concern and imo don’t have the elite ceiling. That’s a stay away from me in R1. Edited January 2 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncosfan_101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 43 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Watson got dinged for his average athletic profile. Early success and all the qb intangible skills though. Jordan Love & Lamar Jackson were known projects. Fields tbh was also known to be that guy. The other 11 have 2 common elements - all were late success stories. And didn’t have elite ceiling tools. The late success issue is my concern with everyone outside Maye / Williams…and Penix. Daniels has a special toolset which helps but his late success is a warning flag (but you can justify it if the tool ceiling is great). Penix injury concern is great enough to say you don’t want him in R1. But imo out of all the rest if he can avoid injury has the best chance of success. The rest of the non top 10 guys have the late success concern and imo don’t have the elite ceiling. That’s a stay away from me in R1. I’m not sure you can put the major project label on the reigning Heisman winner, even if his profile was far from traditional. He was ready to play and contribute early, and won MVP in year two. Love, certainly, and he went to a team with no intention of playing him for at least two years. And Watson falling was probably more so about ‘limited athleticism *for someone who looks like him*’. His RAS was 9+, loads of athleticism for a QB. Penix’s injury profile is certainly extensive, but shouldn’t we also talk about how he’s had two healthy seasons (playing at a HIGH level) in a row now? Like, that’s also relevant I think? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKRNA Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, The Helicopter said: When some were discussing tanking, there was talk about staying away from all QB's (in Round 1) not named Caleb or Drake. Perhaps the college season played out different than expected? I don't like reaching for anyone. We should always be thinking about the future and leveraging our players and draft picks accordingly. There's always a can't miss player. Not sold on giving up resources. If we can't draft, we are hosed. Always! At our draft spot we'll be able to get the best college player available at some position. Given the poor condition of our roster I'd expect BPA with our 1st pick regardless of position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncosfan_101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Draft position update: a loss would all but guarantee us no worse than the 13th overall pick. Realistic best case scenario would jump us to 11th, with wins from MIN over GB, and NO over ATL. I think the worst case scenario for a win would get us all the way to 18th, the worst pick for a non-playoff team. That would see about 5 different games break perfectly against us. Most likely, a win gives us pick 16 or 17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 38 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said: I’m not sure you can put the major project label on the reigning Heisman winner, even if his profile was far from traditional. He was ready to play and contribute early, and won MVP in year two. Love, certainly, and he went to a team with no intention of playing him for at least two years. And Watson falling was probably more so about ‘limited athleticism *for someone who looks like him*’. His RAS was 9+, loads of athleticism for a QB. Penix’s injury profile is certainly extensive, but shouldn’t we also talk about how he’s had two healthy seasons (playing at a HIGH level) in a row now? Like, that’s also relevant I think? The only risk I see with Penix is injury. An injury-free Penix would have been in the NFL 2-3 years ago IMO. But that risk is unfortunately massive. The list of players who play 7-8 more years after his injuries is really small. He does play the most protected position but you can’t deny it’s there. Edited January 3 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Helicopter Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Why weren’t we talking about Penix when we were 1-5? It seems like a reach. Don’t get me wrong, whoever we draft I want to succeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbrog24 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 40 minutes ago, The Helicopter said: Why weren’t we talking about Penix when we were 1-5? It seems like a reach. Don’t get me wrong, whoever we draft I want to succeed. Watched some highlights of him today and thought he isn't the most mobile of guys (maybe a result of those injuries?). He seemed to be able to throw nfl windows though not the best long ball. I'm sure there are people on here with much better analysis than that haha....but ya just doesn't stand out to me as a "must have" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncosfan_101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 41 minutes ago, The Helicopter said: Why weren’t we talking about Penix when we were 1-5? It seems like a reach. Don’t get me wrong, whoever we draft I want to succeed. Because no one was comfortable enough with his medicals. But I think after two fully healthy seasons, he’s worthy of 1st round discussion. Based strictly on talent, he’d be a sure fire top 5 pick in any draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 55 minutes ago, The Helicopter said: Why weren’t we talking about Penix when we were 1-5? It seems like a reach. Don’t get me wrong, whoever we draft I want to succeed. Well.... On 10/11/2023 at 9:00 AM, Broncofan said: Maye has me sold on the elite-ceiling, can't-pass QB. His growth in his ability to move secondary with his eyes, and his footwork & throwing ability, are eye-popping. One big caveat - Mack Brown is a pretty mediocre HC, not as bad as Mario Cristobal with Oregon & Justin Herbert, but I'm firmly convinced a reason why Sam Howell fell to Day 3 was Brown's awful prep and game management put Howell in spots where he didn't look like he progressed after a great freshman / good sophomore year. Don't get me wrong, Howell's not some star (I did take him in Day 3 in the GM game that year with @broncosfan_101, hey we get some right every once in a while), but the point being if anything, Maye's eval might be suppressed by Brown's deficiencies. The one QB I am interested to see how things go this year is Michael Penix. Ppl often forget he was a breakout QB in his RS freshman year at Indiana in 2020 - then tore his ACL halfway through. It's why his 2021 season didn't look great. He's been great after transferring to WAS in 2022. The age is a concern, and he's not quite big enough as you'd like to see (but he's not tiny like Bryce Young, either), but the fact he broke out at age 19, in the Big 10, on a bad IND team vs. much better teams, is really noteworthy. Still, I'm not convinced he belongs as a top-of-R1 guy yet - but much like Joe Burrow (who was RS'd, then sat because of transfer rules), Penix is the one guy who could a lot to elevate his stock - because his young age at breakout, and how polished he looks now, there's room for legit helium. How he fares against ORE & USC will be a big test to see if he's got big-league game to him. But yeah, give me Drake Maye all day if you can't get to 1.1 (pipe dream IMO). And yes, the OL class is very nice, too. DL, not so much this year. 3 months later - I still don't think Penix is worth a top of the draft pick, but it's purely because of the medical concern. I have very few concerns about his QB skills. Again, outside WIlliams / Maye & Daniels, I feel like without injury, he'll have the greatest chance for true NFL success. Bo Nix took forever to start finding success despite playing for years as a starter (and that is a mega-huge flag about translation to NFL), has a 1st-read and short-throw-beyond-LOS dominant O in Oregon. Honestly, these are all huge detractors to Nix's ceiling. JJ McCarthy isn't even close on the actual read/progression scale. Would any of these guys be worth a mid-teens pick? The only guy who flashes as a teenager was Penix - again, if he had stayed injury-free, he'd have been a top 10 NFL pick 2 years ago. But the injuries do matter. Still, while I wouldn't be so sure, if there's a QB who has the mental skills and the throwing accuracy / anticipation to do what Payton requires, Penix checks all the boxes. It's just that the injury risk is so real - there are so few players who carve out a 7-8 year career with his injury history (again, QB being so protected, it's possible he can be shielded...but I'm also sure some teams will take him off their boards because of said risk). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncos_fan _from _uk Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said: I just noticed something that all the hits and the maybe hit have in common here. And it’s something that Penix also has. It’s a thing that has historically caused these players to be overlooked at this particular position. And I don’t remember Watson’s draft ranking (I feel like most mocks had him top 10?), but I do know that Jackson, Love, and Fields all slid on draft day. Freeman, Manuel, Bridgewater, Haskins, and Love all had that thing too. Include the top of the second round and you have guys like Geno Smith (hit-ish? Not for the jets), and Jalen hurts (definite hit) to go with Deshine Kiser, Desmond Ridder (in the same boat as Pickett), Malik Willis who did not hit as well as Jimmy G and Derrick Carr (both hits) who don’t fit your narrative. the actual story to me is if you’re not picking a QB in the top 10 you better have a damn good coach. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncos67 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 hours ago, The Helicopter said: Why weren’t we talking about Penix when we were 1-5? It seems like a reach. Don’t get me wrong, whoever we draft I want to succeed. Because we were firmly competing for Caleb and Maye at that point lol. Now that we improved record-wise, those guys are out of play. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jolly red giant Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Remember that John Elway played his entire career without an ACL in his left knee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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