2022 College Prospect Thread

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, MontanaBronco said:

Russ Wilson being so short had me wanting to make sure penix jr wasn't short and could see over the line. Recommend googling penix height not penix size FYI.....

Definitely don't google penix highlights.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

5 hours ago, MontanaBronco said:

Russ Wilson being so short had me wanting to make sure penix jr wasn't short and could see over the line. Recommend googling penix height not penix size FYI.....

What about his girth?

[jolly red giant]

Back on topic - just like in 2021 when we should have drafted Fields - if Penix is considered and falls to us (or we can trade up for minor cost) then he should be the pick.

The jury is still out on Fields - but if we had taken Fields in 2021 then we wouldn't have hired Hackett (to get Rodgers) - would have hired a decent HC (McDaniel, Quinn etc) - wouldn't have traded away picks and players for Wilson - wouldn't have given Wilson the contract (and would have an extra $124m available up to the end of the dead cap money) - and wouldn't have traded picks for Payton. Even if Fields doesn't become a good QB - we would have been in a much better situation than we are now.

So - rather than accumulating picks and passing on Penix in the hope of getting someone better next year (and Payton doesn't do tanking so it will cost) - if Payton thinks Penix has the potential to get the job done you have to pick him. Otherwise we will potentially end up back on the merry-go-round for another 5-10 years.

Edited January 6 by jolly red giant

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

3 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

Back on topic - just like in 2021 when we should have drafted Fields - if Penix is considered and falls to us (or we can trade up for minor cost) then he should be the pick.

The jury is still out on Fields - but if we had taken Fields in 2021 then we wouldn't have hired Hackett (to get Rodgers) - would have hired a decent HC (McDaniel, Quinn etc) - wouldn't have traded away picks and players for Wilson - wouldn't have given Wilson the contract (and would have an extra $124m available up to the end of the dead cap money) - and wouldn't have traded picks for Payton. Even if Fields doesn't become a good QB - we would have been in a much better situation than we are now.

So - rather than accumulating picks and passing on Penix in the hope of getting someone better next year (and Payton doesn't do tanking so it will cost) - if Payton thinks Penix has the potential to get the job done you have to pick him. Otherwise we will potentially end up back on the merry-go-round for another 5-10 years.

That’s a false dichotomy based on projection though. Making a bad draft pick does not mean we don’t also make bad personnel moves. Just as likely of a scenario: we draft fields against fangios adamant protests, he quits being so late in the hiring cycle we hire Eric Beinemey. After one year it’s clear that Fields is not the answer (much like was the case with Josh Rosen in Arizona) and the broncos D takes a nose dive without Vic. We finish with a top 3 pick. The 2022 draft was notable for being particularly devoid of QB talent. Broncos trade for Rus as Eric thinks he can change him. He can’t, because he’s cooked. EB gets fired after 2 years, broncos try to trade for Sean but he doesn’t want any part of this mess. Kliff Kingsburry is looking for a job though. Now we have spent 3 first rd draft picks on 2 flame out QBs and still have a **** coach. Only now we don’t have one of the best young corners in the game.
 

fantasy is fun.

 

At the end of the day making a bad draft choice, especially a QB in the first, is never a good thing. 
 

I like Penix. If this medical staff can clear him I’m ok with the selection. I am never on board with picking a QB “just because he’s there”

sometimes the best thing to do is embrace the rebuild. Something this franchise has been reluctant to do at great detriment. Eat the cap hit, accumulate picks, build the team.

Edited January 6 by broncos_fan _from _uk

[Broncofan]

The issue with most QB taken outside the top 5-10 is that they aren’t elite ceiling guys but rather late bloomers.   We used to see raw toolsy project guys as well but Patrick Mahomes Mahomes & Josh Allen & Lamar Jackson (and to some extent, Richardson <not even close to proven but just flashes of what he can be>) have basically ended that practice of letting guys fall.  The ones who fall now are either seen as capped or late bloomers.  

 

Watson was seen as capped physically.    Thats why he fell past top 10.   Mahomes was seen as a  project in terms of being NFL ready (same with Allen).    We don’t see the insane-ceiling guys fall much nowadays because of the success with Mahomes / Allen / Jackson.    In general though nowadays you’re left with the Kenny Picketts and the Mac Jones that fall there.   Thats a tier of player you want to avoid.    And make no mistake we’re definitely had discussions of taking guys like these in past years.   
 

Spending R1 picks on guys with late success in college, unless you have strong mitigating circumstances (Joe Burrrow & transfer rules being the obvious case example) , hasn’t worked out in getting franchise-changing talent.    Honestly it’s why I’d pass on Nix and McCarthy.    Penix is the only guy outside the top 3 who flashed early and shows the skills you want to see.   Barring injury IMO he’s clearly the guy with the best chance to succeed out of the next tier.   
 

But again - injury history matters, and his age (like Nix)  IMO will drop his draft stock more.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we were picking in the 20’s and he was still there.    I wouldn’t be surprised to see him & at least 1 of McCarthy / Nix to still be waiting in the Green Room as R1 closes.    I wouldn’t object to dropping back and picking there.  If we lose to LV and are picking around 10 though I agree with @broncosfan_101 that we have elite non-QB and either go there or trade back for significant capital (because of the talent left at 11-12 I’d be surprised if teams don’t want to move up).   In an ideal world if we really want Penix I think the ideal is trade back and get him later.  I’d be shocked if his stock didn’t fall in shorts & t-shirt season.     
 

PS - I know it’s more of a GDT topic but a L to LV really changes the value of our R1 pick.   Big gap in talent picking at 10-12 than mid-late teens.  

Edited January 6 by Broncofan

[broncosfan_101]

The first tiebreaker in draft standings is strength of schedule, which we tied with LV (we then won the next tiebreaker, which is divisional records). In order to tie the strength of schedule, we needed both the Cowboys and the Giants to win their games, so we caught a really big break jumping over LV in the draft order. 

[BroncoSojia]

Guys, what Allbright is saying on twitter has me ready to check out for next season lol. I'm not sure if I can take another year of players like Jimmy G, Tannehill, or CARSON WENTZ at QB with no highly drafted rookie behind them.

[broncosfan_101]

12 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

Guys, what Allbright is saying on twitter has me ready to check out for next season lol. I'm not sure if I can take another year of players like Jimmy G, Tannehill, or CARSON WENTZ at QB with no highly drafted rookie behind them.

Pro tip: throw Allbright in the bin. That guy SUCKS, and doesn’t have sources in the building anymore. 

[Dbrog24]

Hey how do the swaps go for us? Are we stuck with NO and MIA in 3rd and 4th rounds instead of ours?

[broncosfan_101]

1 hour ago, Dbrog24 said:

Hey how do the swaps go for us? Are we stuck with NO and MIA in 3rd and 4th rounds instead of ours?

1.12

3.17 (from NO)

4.TBD (from MIA)

5.10 (from NYJ)

5.12

6.TBD (from SF)

Those are our picks for now, as far as I can tell. Can someone clear up our 7th rounder for me? From everything I’ve read, we’ve actually traded it twice?? First, for Wil Lutz, and then again in the Randy Gregory trade (Gregory + 7th for SF’s 6th). Any idea?

[Cutler06]

So, what are everybody's thoughts on Edge Laiatu Latu ? Had 23.5 sacks over the last two years, seems like an Alpha Dog with a mean streak. The draft seems deep at Edge but certainly a top 12 talent.  

[Broncofan]

6 hours ago, BroncoSojia said:

Guys, what Allbright is saying on twitter has me ready to check out for next season lol. I'm not sure if I can take another year of players like Jimmy G, Tannehill, or CARSON WENTZ at QB with no highly drafted rookie behind them.

 

6 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Pro tip: throw Allbright in the bin. That guy SUCKS, and doesn’t have sources in the building anymore. 

Allbright is definitely no longer plugged in to the room anymore.   It's pretty clear Payton & Paton keep things very close to the vest nowadays.  Just wait it out.

[jolly red giant]

On 1/6/2024 at 3:06 PM, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

That’s a false dichotomy based on projection though. Making a bad draft pick does not mean we don’t also make bad personnel moves. Just as likely of a scenario: we draft fields against fangios adamant protests, he quits being so late in the hiring cycle we hire Eric Beinemey. After one year it’s clear that Fields is not the answer (much like was the case with Josh Rosen in Arizona) and the broncos D takes a nose dive without Vic. We finish with a top 3 pick. The 2022 draft was notable for being particularly devoid of QB talent. Broncos trade for Rus as Eric thinks he can change him. He can’t, because he’s cooked. EB gets fired after 2 years, broncos try to trade for Sean but he doesn’t want any part of this mess. Kliff Kingsburry is looking for a job though. Now we have spent 3 first rd draft picks on 2 flame out QBs and still have a **** coach. Only now we don’t have one of the best young corners in the game.

You are talking nonsense - 

Why would Fangio quit because we drafted Fields - he knew we needed a QB - and Fields wouldn't have been the starter, that was Bridgewater. Furthermore, Fangio was under contract - so if he did walk out he couldn't work anywhere else.

If you are going to do fantasy stuff at least make it somewhat realistic.

The scenario I pointed out could have been avoided by drafting Fields - 3 1sts, 3 2nds, 3 players and $124m saved. Even if Fields wasn't the answer - we would be better off than we are now.

And this all comes back to this year's draft - we still need a QB and if Penix is a possibility then we should draft him (he is the most likely out of the top two to become an NFL QB). Does anyone seriously think that Payton is going to hang around 2-3 years and suck so bad that we can draft a QB with a top five pick - it is not in his psyche to tank.

Draft the QB and see what happens.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

1 hour ago, jolly red giant said:

You are talking nonsense - 

Why would Fangio quit because we drafted Fields - he knew we needed a QB - and Fields wouldn't have been the starter, that was Bridgewater. Furthermore, Fangio was under contract - so if he did walk out he couldn't work anywhere else.

If you are going to do fantasy stuff at least make it somewhat realistic.

The scenario I pointed out could have been avoided by drafting Fields - 3 1sts, 3 2nds, 3 players and $124m saved. Even if Fields wasn't the answer - we would be better off than we are now.

And this all comes back to this year's draft - we still need a QB and if Penix is a possibility then we should draft him (he is the most likely out of the top two to become an NFL QB). Does anyone seriously think that Payton is going to hang around 2-3 years and suck so bad that we can draft a QB with a top five pick - it is not in his psyche to tank.

Draft the QB and see what happens.

Fangio was on thin ice. There was talk of him being fired that offseason.  By all accounts that was his year to make it work his way. He always devalued the QB position, it’s very possible that if a QB, a project WB who would have necessitated someone to groom him (not Vic’s forte), was drafted against his wishes he and George would have “split amicably.” 
 

at the end of the day both of our scenarios were just as likely to happen and neither did. Fields is not a good QB. The mental gymnastics it takes to continue to justify wanting to select him in retrospect is what I’m pointing out. I also wanted us to select him at the time!  We were both wrong.

[broncos67]

9 hours ago, Cutler06 said:

So, what are everybody's thoughts on Edge Laiatu Latu ? Had 23.5 sacks over the last two years, seems like an Alpha Dog with a mean streak. The draft seems deep at Edge but certainly a top 12 talent.  

His medicals are even more terrifying than Penix's. I'd take the chance on Penix, I would not take the chance on Latu. A neck injury so significant that a doctor demeed him unfit to play football anymore? Yikes. His performance after that diagnosis is definitely impressive but I think that's a massive risk for us.