What’s the best package we could get for Rodgers?

[TransientTexan]

7 minutes ago, Sandy said:

The salary cap issues are mostly fabricated by the media outlets

🤡

 

[squire12]

8 minutes ago, Sandy said:

The player losses this and next year can be easily avoided. The salary cap issues are mostly fabricated by the media outlets to convince people that Rodgers will be traded so people can keep clicking their articles suggesting Rodgers would be dumb enough to be persuaded to go to Denver or Las Vegas 😂

Fact is, just from cutting one of the Smiths and extending/restructuring contracts, they can bring back Adams, Campbell and Douglas while having still more cap to play with for their top 52 players.

Can you lay this out in actual numbers?  Would like to see how you are doing the contracts on players with the extensions and re-signing of Adams to make it all work.  

Saying it is 1 thing, showing it is another.

 

[spilltray]

11 minutes ago, Sandy said:

The player losses this and next year can be easily avoided. The salary cap issues are mostly fabricated by the media outlets to convince people that Rodgers will be traded so people can keep clicking their articles suggesting Rodgers would be dumb enough to be persuaded to go to Denver or Las Vegas 😂

Fact is, just from cutting one of the Smiths and extending/restructuring contracts, they can bring back Adams, Campbell and Douglas while having still more cap to play with for their top 52 players

That's not entirely accurate. Yes you can sort of borrow from future caps but eventually you really do need to catch up. Also if you play cap games with a guy and for instance he has an injury like Nick Collins, it could blow up in your face. This year was a good year to try it but it doesn't make sense to keep doing it.

 

Besides what happens when Rodgers retires 2 years in to a 5 year extension? Or decides he's at war with the front office again when they cut someone like Cobb for cap purposes? What about Aaron Jones having a huge cap charge spike after next year? At some point it will become a real problem. 

 

I get the fan impulse to keep going as we are, push money forward, ect, but I can't see Gute thinking it's in his best interest or the team long term.

[OneTwoSixFive]

@spilltray

Further to your comments, Gute has taken a longer term view of the team more often than not, the same as his predecessor, TT.    While 2021 was a rare foray into an attitude of 'sell out for this year', it is not the norm for the front office. I don't know which way they choose to go for 2022 and beyond, but fans on both sides of this argument have had plenty to say in support of their side.

[Kenrik]

38 minutes ago, Sandy said:

The player losses this and next year can be easily avoided. The salary cap issues are mostly fabricated by the media outlets to convince people that Rodgers will be traded so people can keep clicking their articles suggesting Rodgers would be dumb enough to be persuaded to go to Denver or Las Vegas 😂

Fact is, just from cutting one of the Smiths and extending/restructuring contracts, they can bring back Adams, Campbell and Douglas while having still more cap to play with for their top 52 players.

I wouldn't say I'm so "fearful of change" as I am looking at this rationally. After the loss I was fully in the camp to trade Rodgers, but the further removed I am from it, the better it seems for both parties if he stays to give it a go a couple more times.

And maybe they don't win any more super bowls, but it's worth a shot.  As Chris Cornell said, "the grass is always greener where the dogs are ****ting". We could go through a stretch like the Lions. Or the Bengals for the last 30 years before now. Or the Jets, Dolphins, Vikings, Washington, Texans, Jaguars, Browns, etc. How many times have those franchises squandered draft capital?

Not to mention - from Rodgers' perspective, which team actually gives him a better shot at a SB? Not an AFC team considering their powerhouse teams right now. He'd have to be traded in conference, something that if Gute has any backbone he would tell him isn't an option.

For better or for worse, it seems we're going to try and bring the band back together for a couple more tries at a championship. If we start presupposing that we won't win one with him in the next three seasons, then sure trading him makes the most sense. But I still think we have a better shot with three seasons of Rodgers than 10 without him. 

This was 100% my take last year. I think I've jumped ship though. I know every year will be different with inquiries and luck but outside of the oline and Tonyan we were extremely healthy and I don't think we'll be that lucky next year. Add that with not being able to bring everyone back. Our shot was this year. Load up on some picks and give Love a shot. If he is not the guy, then draft another QB next year. We have a good core of young players that we can build around.

You are right with saying we may go a long time without having a great QB so draft capital could be wasted anyways. My take here is getting something in return for Rodgers while we still can which will put us in a better position for finding the heir apparent. 

[Smidgeon]

8 hours ago, Sandy said:

This line of thinking could squander two or three legitimate shots at a SB. There is no guarantee any draft pick we get for Rodgers end up being a star player. 

I'd much rather we keep kicking that salary-cap can down the road and keep Rodgers as long as possible. If we can bring him and Adams back for the next few seasons (which is easily possible as many members of this board have illustrated) then we should be NFC favorites each of those years. 

Do you think Bucs fans are lamenting bringing Brady, Gronk, Suh, Fournette, etc for two seasons before going into a possibly long rebuild this off season?

At this point, I believe the bolded part is the fallacy.  IF the offense had done enough in either of the last two years to advance (Brady threw 3 INTs last year, and the offense only had to score 2 TDs this year to advance--both at home), then I think you'd have an argument.  As it is, in two consecutive years, the Packers had the #1 seed and got bounced because the offense--led by the MVP--couldn't score when they needed to.  On top of that, this year the defense played even better than last year.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but it didn't happen this year or last year.  There's nothing to suggest there will be "two or three legitimatee shots at a SB."

[Sandy]

3 hours ago, squire12 said:

Can you lay this out in actual numbers?  Would like to see how you are doing the contracts on players with the extensions and re-signing of Adams to make it all work.  

Saying it is 1 thing, showing it is another.

 

Most of these numbers I've compiled from seeing them on other postings here or on other sites. I've rounded down a few of them to ensure I'm not overestimating:

Cap savings:

Extend:

20m Rodgers

9m Jaire

5m Amos

Restructure:

9m Bahk

9.5m Clark

Extend or Cut:

15m Z Smith

12m P Smith

Cut:

6.5m Cobb

2m Crosby

Total: 88-46= $42 million under the cap

 

Then:

12m cap hit for Adams on a 5 year deal (40m signing bonus, 4m first year salary)

5m Campbell (3 year deal)

5m Douglas (3 year deal)

4m draft picks

5.5m erfa

2.5m Lazard (tender)

1m Cobb (bring him back at vet minimum)

3m Mercilus (2 year deal)

Total: 38m

Left over: $4 million

 

This is without touching Turner or Lewis, who could save us another 6.5m combined if cut. In the draft we target TE and WR to make up for the loss of MVS and Tonyan, or perhaps edge if we cut both smiths instead of extending one. 

The point I've beeb trying to make is that this is sustainable for 2-3 years without a rebuild if Rodgers want to come back. Sure, after we'd be in cap hell, but whenever Rodgers does go I expect a tear-down rebuild anyway so the cap will be less of a factor. 

[Sandy]

3 hours ago, Kenrik said:

This was 100% my take last year. I think I've jumped ship though. I know every year will be different with inquiries and luck but outside of the oline and Tonyan we were extremely healthy and I don't think we'll be that lucky next year. Add that with not being able to bring everyone back. Our shot was this year. Load up on some picks and give Love a shot. If he is not the guy, then draft another QB next year. We have a good core of young players that we can build around.

You are right with saying we may go a long time without having a great QB so draft capital could be wasted anyways. My take here is getting something in return for Rodgers while we still can which will put us in a better position for finding the heir apparent. 

You know, I'm not totally against this. Part of me wants the team to just blow it up just to see what they can do. It's fun to dream on draft picks, thats what led me to this board in the first place 15 years ago.

But Gute has shown to be a win-now guy except that one weird year he traded up for a qb with a second round grade. And he knows that if he doesn't win an SB with Rodgers, he'll get fired if Love flops. Throw in the fact that Rodgers know this team is his best chance, and his return seems inevitable. Regardless of what we want, the writing is on the wall that they'll bring it back.

[Mr Bad Example]

22 minutes ago, Sandy said:

he knows that if he doesn't win an SB with Rodgers, he'll get fired if Love flops.

Nah, I think Gute has a pretty good track record where whiffing on Love won't sink him....but he'd better nail the next QB if Love is below-average. 

[OneTwoSixFive]

35 minutes ago, Sandy said:

But Gute has shown to be a win-now guy except that one weird year he traded up for a qb with a second round grade. And he knows that if he doesn't win an SB with Rodgers, he'll get fired if Love flops. Throw in the fact that Rodgers know this team is his best chance, and his return seems inevitable. Regardless of what we want, the writing is on the wall that they'll bring it back.

Except for trading down before trading up for Alexander, except for the QB, except for going for long-term quality with Rashan Gary. That's three out of his four first round picks.

He has foregone expensive veteran additions after the one year when he acquired the Smiths, Amos and Turner.

Also, pushing money into the future for (what might be) a last shot at a SB with a high quality team that will be broken up soon, that is also not the norm for Packers GMs, it wasn't for TT and is not (normally) for Gutekunst. At least part of that unusual situation was caused by the reduced cap when the Packers had so many good players to keep. Gute is not a win now guy, he is a "we want to win every year" guy, as was his predecessor.

Your contention that Love had a 2nd round grade is based on what exactly, some internet media outlet ?

Finally, I cannot see Gutekunst getting fired if Love flops. Green Bay is not a team with a tendency to make an unusually quick 'hook' to remove a HC or GM. Now if Love failed, and Gute drafted another QB in round 1 and then HE failed, maybe the heat is turned up, but Gute's career does not rest solely on the shoulders of Love. In this, I agree with @Mr Bad Example

In short, I disagree with just about everything you posted.

Edited January 31, 2022 by OneTwoSixFive

[squire12]

1 hour ago, Sandy said:

Most of these numbers I've compiled from seeing them on other postings here or on other sites. I've rounded down a few of them to ensure I'm not overestimating:

Cap savings:

Extend:

20m Rodgers

9m Jaire

5m Amos

Restructure:

9m Bahk

9.5m Clark

Extend or Cut:

15m Z Smith

12m P Smith

Cut:

6.5m Cobb

2m Crosby

Total: 88-46= $42 million under the cap

 

Then:

12m cap hit for Adams on a 5 year deal (40m signing bonus, 4m first year salary)

5m Campbell (3 year deal)

5m Douglas (3 year deal)

4m draft picks

5.5m erfa

2.5m Lazard (tender)

1m Cobb (bring him back at vet minimum)

3m Mercilus (2 year deal)

Total: 38m

Left over: $4 million

 

This is without touching Turner or Lewis, who could save us another 6.5m combined if cut. In the draft we target TE and WR to make up for the loss of MVS and Tonyan, or perhaps edge if we cut both smiths instead of extending one. 

The point I've beeb trying to make is that this is sustainable for 2-3 years without a rebuild if Rodgers want to come back. Sure, after we'd be in cap hell, but whenever Rodgers does go I expect a tear-down rebuild anyway so the cap will be less of a factor. 

Good.  Now see what that does to the 2023 cap numbers with extensions and restructures

Rodgers
Jaire
Adams
Amos
Bahktiari
Clark
Preston/Z Smith
Campbell
Douglass

[NavyGuy]

1 hour ago, Sandy said:

 

But Gute has shown to be a win-now guy except that one weird year he traded up for a qb with a second round grade. And he knows that if he doesn't win an SB with Rodgers, he'll get fired if Love flops.

Gute is arguably the best GM in the league, his job security isn't in question. He has hit on every draft, he's hit on FA signings and hit on coaching hire. 

[NFLGURU]

What this team desperately needs is the same thing they've needed for 6 years.

A LEGIT #2 WR.

A  guy who can run the complete route tree, who can get open on any play.  A guy Rodgers can target on any play instead of having to watch Adams ALL THE TIME.

MVS runs about 3 routes good and all involve straight line speed, he's great as a decoy type, Love him for his role, but he's not a legit #2.

Cobb is closer, but has lost speed.

They need a guy who can get open consistently to take pressure off Rodgers.  

I'm not suggesting this guy but a guy like Smith-Schuster who has shown he CAN get open.  A guy like Greg Jennings was (BTW they haven't been back to the SB since he was a #2 to Jordy) who you can go to on any play

They don't have the balance in the passing game.  They need a solid #2 WR, and I think you need to make the financial cuts even deeper to find one.  Rodgers is basically playing on half the field.  Fill in the blank who that #2 WR could be, but they need a legit go to guy on the other side of Adams.

Edited January 31, 2022 by NFLGURU

[Packerraymond]

37 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Good.  Now see what that does to the 2023 cap numbers with extensions and restructures

Rodgers
Jaire
Adams
Amos
Bahktiari
Clark
Preston/Z Smith
Campbell
Douglass

What difference does that make? If they pushed all the chips in for 2021, they'll push it again.

Eventually the year will come where they need to pay the piper, but if Rodgers has a strong desire to come back, absolutely nothing has shown me that Gute and LaFleur will do what Ted and Mac did and pass.

They'll kick the can further down the road.

[Leader]

16 minutes ago, NFLGURU said:

What this team desperately needs is the same thing they've needed for 6 years.

A LEGIT #2 WR.

A  guy who can run the complete route tree, who can get open on any play.  A guy Rodgers can target on any play instead of having to watch Adams ALL THE TIME.

MVS runs about 3 routes good and all involve straight line speed, he's great as a decoy type, Love him for his role, but he's not a legit #2.

Cobb is closer, but has lost speed.

They need a guy who can get open consistently to take pressure off Rodgers.  

I'm not suggesting this guy but a guy like Smith-Schuster who has shown he CAN get open.  A guy like Greg Jennings was (BTW they haven't been back to the SB since he was a #2 to Jordy) who you can go to on any play

They don't have the balance in the passing game.  They need a solid #2 WR, and I think you need to make the financial cuts even deeper to find one.  Rodgers is basically playing on half the field.  Fill in the blank who that #2 WR could be, but they need a legit go to guy on the other side of Adams.

Hold that thought....but we soon may need a #1 and 2 WR.