Rodgers reportedly coming back

[Old Guy]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

2012 is the argument. 

It was a down year for the league. Adrian Peterson won the MVP that year, so you know none of the QBs killed it in the regular season.

+

Joe Flacco's Post Season was: 4-0 Record. 11TDs/0 INTs. Passer Rating of 117.2. 280 Y/G, 9.05 Y/A.

And like 8000 yards on pass interference penalties. 

+

So if you're one of those people who argues that the regular season is half the season, and the post season is the other half, you have a legit argument that Joe Flacco was the best QB in the league that year. 

 

I've never heard anybody argue playoffs were half the season. Here are the QB stats for the 2012 season. Joe Flacco, under no evaluation was the best QB. He got hot for a four-game stretch. 

Just look at his stats vs. Rodgers and its game, set, match. It's really not even a debate. 

2012 NFL Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com

[AlexGreen#20]

23 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

I've never heard anybody argue playoffs were half the season. Here are the QB stats for the 2012 season. Joe Flacco, under no evaluation was the best QB. He got hot for a four-game stretch. 

Just look at his stats vs. Rodgers and its game, set, match. It's really not even a debate. 

2012 NFL Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Which is fine to hold as an opinion.

But by that logic, you can't tear down Peyton for his post season. 

[vegas492]

10 hours ago, beekay414 said:

What?

The question was "when has the best QB won the Super Bowl" not "when has the best QB won the Super Bowl but only with the qualifiers I put on it to fit my narrative."

I liked it better when you didn't post lol

Favre and Rodgers might be on that list.

[Old Guy]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Which is fine to hold as an opinion.

But by that logic, you can't tear down Peyton for his post season. 

I didn't tear down Peyton. 

[AlexGreen#20]

Just now, Old Guy said:

I didn't tear down Peyton. 

But another poster did. 

[wgbeethree]

Am I missing something? I'm not even sure how this is a question. With the caveat of if you win the Superbowl it doesn't really matter how to the fans of said team I'll absolutely argue that what you do in the playoffs outweighs what you did in the regular season. Absolutely every single fan of every single team would rather have his quarterback play mediocre in the regular season and lights out in the playoffs rather than vice versa. 

[skibrett15]

Flacco and Manning are flip sides of the same coin.

Get it?

Manning is obviously the best QB in the same way Rodgers was obviously the MVP last year and the year before and wasn't great in the playoffs.

 

Flacco is obviously a flawed QB who had a good season and an amazing postseason.  Kind of like a better version of Nick Foles.

[skibrett15]

SO you can win with the best QB, and you can win with a hot QB.

 

Best not to make sweeping statements on The only way to build a winner is X.

 

The answer is always, and I do mean always more like:
"the easiest way to build a winner is usually X, unless the year is like Y, and of course you also need to not be injured and also Z and Theta and Gamma have to happen in most cases unless you also happen to have a good amount of luck or Eli Manning."

[Norm]

It's random!

[Packerraymond]

The longer we don't hear about a Rodgers extension the more I'm worried that Gute, Ball, Murphy and LaFleur screwed the pooch on this thing and we've just let Rodgers commit to one season where we'll add some void years to lower his cap hit.

If they chose a single year of Rodgers over an 8 player haul, the only forgiveness possible is a SB championship. 

If a championship doesn't occur this year that group will forever be known to me as the sackless 4 who chose one year of a QB over potentially setting up the next era of Packers football for dominance in the next decade.

Now an extension with 3-4 years, I'm OK with that choice, but one year wouldn't have even taken thought, his *** would've been shopped everywhere.

[CWood21]

I'm STRUGGLING to find a deal that makes sense for Rodgers and fits what has been reported ($50M AAV, $153M GTD) that doesn't affect his 2022 cash flow AND is team friendly for Green Bay in 2022.  The one I came up with I'd argue is probably in the "extreme" scenario, and I think it's not likely.  Rodgers walks away with a new 4 year, $200M contract.  Similar set up as before.

So the maximum the Packers can restructure his base salary would be his current base salary minus his minimum salary ($1.12M), so if we assume that he's willing to do that we'd convert that into a signing bonus which would be $23.35M spread out over 5 years so a pro-rated signing bonus of $5.07M.

Year | Base Salary | Signing Bonus | Roster Bonus | Workout Bonus | Previous SB | Cap Hit
2022: $1,120,000 | $5,070,116 | $0 | $500,000 | $16,321,569 | $25,255,687

This creates an additional $21.4M in cap space, which would be the cap space needed to absorb Davante Adams' franchise tag.  For Aaron Rodgers, he's still receiving the same amount of money in 2022 that he was already set to receive.  They could give him a bigger signing bonus as incentive, but the Packers would lose cap space by bigger giving him a bigger signing bonus.  Now that we have that out of the way, moving onto the $50M AAV and you have to figure that it'll move upwards as the salary cap goes up.  I keep going back to Patrick Mahomes' contract, and you see multiple sizeable roster bonuses.  Plus, the Packers like nice small bonuses for workout bonuses.  And came up with:

Year | Base Salary | Signing Bonus | Roster Bonus | Workout Bonus | Previous SB | Cap Hit
2022: $1,120,000 | $5,070,116 | $0 | $500,000 | $19,173,569 | $25,255,687
2023: $10,000,000 | $5,070,116 | $36,250,000 | $500,000 | $7,673,568 | $59,493,684
2024: $10,400,000 | $5,070,116 | $37,990,000 | $500,000 | $0 | $53,960,116
2025: $10,800,000 | $5,070,116 | $39,720,000 | $500,000 | $0 | $55,590,116
2026: $11,200,000 | $5,070,116 | $41,430,000| $500,000 | $0 | $58,200,116

That puts his contract at 4 years, $207M in new money, so you've got $7M you can cut to save some more money.  You'll probably see that more in his 2023 cap.  So let's move onto the GTD portion.  I'm going to assume that all of his base salary is guaranteed, which would put $42.4M of his reported $153M GTD.  If you guarantee all of his roster bonuses, you're up to $156M which is about $3M more then what is being reported.  Now as far as the creative part, the roster bonus guarantees if he's on the roster the previous year which effectively poison pills the contract so the Packers can't release him without incurring a CRAP ton of dead cap.  His 2023 cap hit would be astronomical, but teh Packers could restructure and create north of $36M in dead cap but it'd also mean the Packers would be dealing with a TON of dead cap when he retires.

[Leader]

11 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

.....but it'd also mean the Packers would be dealing with a TON of dead cap when he retires.

"Hello New Orleans my old friend....."

[Old Guy]

14 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

The longer we don't hear about a Rodgers extension the more I'm worried that Gute, Ball, Murphy and LaFleur screwed the pooch on this thing and we've just let Rodgers commit to one season where we'll add some void years to lower his cap hit.

If they chose a single year of Rodgers over an 8 player haul, the only forgiveness possible is a SB championship. 

If a championship doesn't occur this year that group will forever be known to me as the sackless 4 who chose one year of a QB over potentially setting up the next era of Packers football for dominance in the next decade.

Now an extension with 3-4 years, I'm OK with that choice, but one year wouldn't have even taken thought, his *** would've been shopped everywhere.

I'm starting to think they've done nothing. Those cap sights were right on it when it came to Clark and Jones restructures. They have changed nothing on their sites. Rodgers cap hit is the same. 

I think the Adams piece is what is holding everything up. He he doesn't get signed to an extension, the whole thing could implode. 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Old Guy

[Packerraymond]

Just now, Old Guy said:

I'm starting to think they've done nothing. Those cap sights were right on it when it came to Clark and Jones restructures. They have changed nothing on their sites. Rodgers cap hit is the same. 

I think the Adams piece is what is holding everything up. He he doesn't get signed, the whole thing could implode. 

Rodgers hasn't signed anything, so there is nothing to update. Jones, Bakh, Clark are automatically restructured. We didn't change the terms of their contract, just how much they count on their cap, therefore it doesn't require any signature from the player.

Adding void years does, therefore Rodgers has to sign a new contract.

[squire12]

15 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

The longer we don't hear about a Rodgers extension the more I'm worried that Gute, Ball, Murphy and LaFleur screwed the pooch on this thing and we've just let Rodgers commit to one season where we'll add some void years to lower his cap hit.

If they chose a single year of Rodgers over an 8 player haul, the only forgiveness possible is a SB championship. 

If a championship doesn't occur this year that group will forever be known to me as the sackless 4 who chose one year of a QB over potentially setting up the next era of Packers football for dominance in the next decade.

Now an extension with 3-4 years, I'm OK with that choice, but one year wouldn't have even taken thought, his *** would've been shopped everywhere.

I think it is about what domino falls first.  Rodgers, Adams, Jaire, Preston, Z are the big pieces that can be used to get the cap relief.   But do any of them want to give anything back without getting something in return

1 minute ago, Old Guy said:

I'm starting to think they've done nothing. Those cap sights were right on it when it came to Clark and Jones restructures. They have changed nothing on their sites. Rodgers cap hit is the same. 

I think the Adams piece is what is holding everything up. He he doesn't get signed to an extension, the whole thing could implode. 

yup.   lots of moving parts and pieces that will hinge off each other.  

 

Interesting next 5 days ahead