skibrett15 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/16/2022 at 4:44 PM, R T said: Why would you hate on someone that actually knows what he is talking about? he doesn't! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/15/2022 at 3:18 PM, skibrett15 said: A more detailed view of the packers options with this contract: As I look at it, the way this deal actually works is that in year 2 (2023) the team has to exercise the option to authorize the year 4 bonus (2025 $30M). This first option in year 2 is fully guaranteed. In Year 3, the team has to exercise the option for the year 5 bonus (2026, $30M). This second option is guaranteed for injury only. IF THEY DON'T exercise the bonus(es) - those $30M bonuses in year 4 or year 5 would accelerate into year 2 or year 3 base salary, turning his $31M cap in year 2 into a $61M cap hit, or his $40M cap hit in year 3 into a $70M cap hit. So, since 2023 option money is guaranteed, they will certainly exercise that one, which authorizes the 2025 compensation and keep the 2023 cap number at $31M. They could choose not to authorize the 2024 option, which would make his Cap hit in 2024 $70M, his cap hit in 2025 $59M, and leave only $8M dead in 2026 if they move on. I THINK (but less certain): If they chose to simply move on in 2024, they would have a $24M dead cap in '24, $51M dead in 2025, and no dead cap in 2026. Now if he retires, team owes the signing bonus cap portion, and the option bonus cap portions for the future years. Team can recollect on the signing bonus, but I'm not sure about the option bonus. Here's what I said on Tuesday at 3:10 PM. Ken still working on his story, but he's the expert so... The options in 2023 and 2024 guarantee money in 2025 and 2026 respectively. 2023 is next year, and that money is Guaranteed. They will exercise that option unless Rodgers is retiring (which he isn't). If they don't exercise it, Rodgers would have an 85M cap hit next year which would be fully guaranteed. Untenable. So it's pretty safe to assume they will exercise that one. The 2024 one is the decision. The decision time is the 5th day of the 2024 waiver period (idk what the waiver period is) when the money fully guarantees. If they move on they will have 24M dead cap in 2024, and 51M in 2025 for a total of 76M, but it's spread over 2 years. They could further spread that out with a post June designation. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isherwood Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 3:36 PM, Mr Anonymous said: Ken learned a lot this go around. He's great at knowing the mechanics of the cap. Now he knows just how much of it can be moved around. Perhaps he did know but figured the Packers would never move this much. They can move another $40+ million if they want to. Ken Ingalls is a very smart guy who understand all the numbers and how they work, but is terrible at prognostication. He’d fit in great at 538, they should hire him. He basically whiffed on the entire 2020-2022 saga all because he never imagined Rodgers would win his legacy back. The human element that the numbers just can’t predict. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted March 27, 2022 Author Share Posted March 27, 2022 So is this a one year deal like they suggest at or kinda see as you go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said: So is this a one year deal like they suggest at or kinda see as you go? That is kind of what I was thinking when the contact numbers came out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddfather Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said: So is this a one year deal like they suggest at or kinda see as you go? I thought I saw it was essentially a two year deal disguised as a three year... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, Toddfather said: I thought I saw it was essentially a two year deal disguised as a three year... Nope. I've debarked from the AR Train and I'm not getting back on board. Whatever happens...happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddfather Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Leader said: Nope. I've debarked from the AR Train and I'm not getting back on board. Whatever happens...happens. no idea if you meant to reply to me? I'm confused as to why you're quoting me on your statement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted March 28, 2022 Author Share Posted March 28, 2022 24 minutes ago, Toddfather said: I thought I saw it was essentially a two year deal disguised as a three year... That’s what I thought too but hard to doubt Brandt. Although he was wrong about 12 coming back at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, Toddfather said: no idea if you meant to reply to me? I'm confused as to why you're quoting me on your statement. No particular reason outside you were discussing the topic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
{Family Ghost} Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Arthur Penske said: So is this a one year deal like they suggest at or kinda see as you go? I hope so .. it was stupid to bring him back anyway. Should have tried to get a bounty of picks and moved on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Arthur Penske said: So is this a one year deal like they suggest at or kinda see as you go? Feels like there would have been a much easier way of negotiating a 1-yr deal than this structure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minnypackerfan Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 It definitely looks like it is structured with a "trade me option" after 1 year. While the dead cap if traded Pre-June 1st is just over $40 million, his compensation that year for salary cap purposes would count at approximately $31 million. Key is that if some other team trades for him, they will have to pick up those option bonus's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dubz41 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 So Rodgers has a chance to garner a third MVP in a row by showing he can do it without DA. Leads us to another North title, maybe wins a playoff game, maybe wins a SB with our defense returning almost intact. Walks off into the sunset because he CHOSE to. One more year for Love to learn under Clements and away we go without waiting for a rebuild. Reload! Go Pack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted March 28, 2022 Author Share Posted March 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, Dubz41 said: So Rodgers has a chance to garner a third MVP in a row by showing he can do it without DA. Leads us to another North title, maybe wins a playoff game, maybe wins a SB with our defense returning almost intact. Walks off into the sunset because he CHOSE to. One more year for Love to learn under Clements and away we go without waiting for a rebuild. Reload! Go Pack. Is Rodgers won a 3rd MVP and MLF didn’t get coach of the year it would be criminal at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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