All In - Part Deux

[packfanfb]

Instead of an outright 53-man prediction at this point, I thought I would do a current assessment of the roster based on my own personal observations, as well as what I'm reading from TC reports, etc.: 

QB (2):

• Locks: Rodgers; Love
• PS guys: Etling 
• This one is easy. No real questions at the QB position

RB (3)

• Locks: Jones; Dillon
• In the Hunt: Taylor; Goodson
• PS candidate: Baylor
• Variable: Hill on PUP
• RB is tough because the No. 3 is clearly Hill if he comes off PUP before Week 1. I currently have my doubts that ANY of the ACL guys are going to be activated before Week 1, so for now, I think it's a two-man race between Taylor and Goodson for the No. 3 spot. I'm pulling for Goodson as he is the more dynamic player. I will add though that based on observation, Hill appears to be closest to returning from PUP of any of the ACL guys.

WR (6 or 7)

• Locks: Watkins, Lazard, Cobb, Doubs, Watson, Rodgers
• In the Hunt: Winfree; Toure
• PS candidate: Davis, Taylor
• Camp body: Hyman, Mitchell
• I am putting Rodgers in as a "lock" purely based on Gute's recent comments about his future with the Packers. Personally, I still have not seen a valid reason for why Amari should make the team over Winfree or Toure (based on TC production), but it sounds like he's going to be a lock and probably will still be the No. 1 punt returner as well. 
• Cutting Winfree would be a hard sell for me. He consistently ran with the 1s to start camp, up until Watkins came back. He looks and acts like a veteran WR out there and IMO has a that X receiver skillset (just not at a premium level). At worst, if he gets cut due to numbers, I hope we can retain him on the PS, but I have a feeling that Winfree may want to move on if he doesn't make the 53. 
• A guy to watch is Danny Davis. He has caught everything in camp. While he doesn't have any shot at the 53, I expect there to be strong interest to get him on the PS. 

TE (4)

• Locks: Lewis, Deguara, Davis, Dafney
• PS candidate: Cannella
• Camp body: Mack
• Variable: Tonyan on PUP
• Again, I'll believe it when I see it in terms of any of the ACL guys coming off PUP before Week 1. I know the Packers' medical staff is salivating at the thought of holding those guys back another month, especially since the PUP rules were shortened to 4 games, instead of 6. 
• Assuming Tonyan stays on PUP, the TE position is a pretty easy one to map out. The guy to watch is Cannella who I think should find his way onto the PS. He's a very smooth route runner, perhaps better than any of the 4 "lock" players based on what I saw in 1-on-1s in camp. Guy runs routes like a WR. 

OL (8 or 9)

• Locks: Nijman, Runyan, Myers, Newman, Tom, Rhyan
• In the Hunt: Hanson, Van Lanen, Walker
• PS candidate: Jones
• Camp body: Moore, Menet, Clary, Schneider (injured)
• Variables: Bakhtiari and Jenkins on PUP
• Right now, this is the biggest "what if" position due to the injuries of our two All-Pro OTs. Again, I'm currently operating under the assumption that neither of them will be activated before Week 1. I think this is a certainty for Jenkins and I'm losing hope on Bak with every passing day (Bill Huber actually just did a new 53-man prediction where we kept Bak on PUP, changing his earlier view that he'd be activated, based on where he believes Bak is at in his rehab...).
• Assuming 69 and 74 miss the first 4 games, the OL becomes pretty easy and the 3 "in the hunt" guys all make the team (or the Packers make a move and potentially add a journeyman vet for depth). 

DL (5 or 6)

• Locks: Clark, Reed, Lowry, Wyatt, Slaton
• In the Hunt: Ford; Heflin
• Camp body: Byers; Slayton
• This unit is loaded. Slaton is arguably our No. 5 DL and he's been kicking *** in TC. The only real competition comes down to whether the Packers decide to carry 6 guys. If so, it's a battle between the rookie Ford and last year's TC surprise, Heflin. 

EDGE (4 or 5)

• Locks: Gary; Smith
• In the Hunt: Hamilton, Galeai, Garvin, Enagbare, Ramsey
• PS candidate: Manac
• Camp body: Jones
• The polar opposite of the DL is the EDGE position, where we have 2 bonafide starters and then bunch of guys. Frankly, it's hard to get excited about any EDGE guy on our team outside of 52 and 91 right now. Maybe Ramsey can be that guy since he's the only one who hasn't participated in live, team drills/action yet because of his injury from last season. If I have choose 3 guys from that list today, it would be: Ramsey, Hamilton and Garvin. Enagbare probably needs a year on the PS.
• While the Packers will probably keep 5 here, I could conceivably see them only go with 4 depending on their intent to use Quay as a rusher in certain situations. 

ILB (4 or 5)

• Locks: Campbell, Walker, Barnes
• In the Hunt: McDuffie; Summers
• PS candidate: Wilborn
• Camp body: Brooks
• Right now, McDuffie appears to have a firm grasp on the No. 4 spot. I could see Summers stick around for ST if the Packers chose to go with 5 ILBs, but this may be the end for him with the addition of Walker to the unit. 

CB (6) 

• Locks: Alexander, Stokes, Douglas, Jean-Charles, Nixon
• In the Hunt: Ento, Gafford
• PS candidate: Thomas, Vaughn 
• I was very impressed by the CB unit during the week I spent watching TC. Even the bottom guys like Thomas and Vaughn made plays here and there. I didn't see a true "camp body" player in the group. Was also impressed by the growth from SJC, he appears primed for a larger role this year as the No. 4 or 5 CB. 
• Given SJC's play and the fact that I think Nixon is a ST lock, if nothing else, I think it's a dog-fight between Ento and Gafford for that last spot. Ento is probably the better CB right now and has great length, but Gafford has been playing on just about every ST unit thus far in camp, which is a good sign for him being that No. 6 guy. 

SAF (4 or 5)

• Locks: Amos, Savage
• In the Hunt: Scott, Leavitt, Davis, Gaines
• PS candidate: Carpenter
• Safety is one of the better battles in TC with 4 guys competing for 2-3 spots. Right now, Scott appears to be the early favorite for the No. 3 spot, while Leavitt appears to be the early favorite for a big ST role. I would not rule out Davis or Gaines just yet from either capturing a spot as the No. 5, or unseating Scott (Davis was working at the No. 3 in minicamp). Gaines probably has the lowest probability of making the roster but as a CB/S, he's versatile enough to warrant consideration. 
• I know Carpenter is a draft pick, but just based on observation alone, he appears to be far behind the rest of the group. He reallllllly struggles in coverage. 

ST (3)

• Locks: O'Donnell; Crosby
• In the Hunt: Coco, Wirtel
• PS candidate: Brkic
• Unlike the ACL guys, it appears the Packers don't have much concern about Crosby being ready for Week 1 so I'm penciling him in. The only real battle here is between Coco and Wirtel. Frankly, it doesn't sound like either of them should be on the 53, but I'm pulling for Coco simply because he's a bigger guy who maybe won't get run over in the playoffs, leading to a blocked punt for a TD. That's how low my expectations are for the LS. 

[Mox]

Is Rodgers a lock? Has he stood out compared to Winfree or Toure?

[{Family Ghost}]

7 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

Is Rodgers a lock? Has he stood out compared to Winfree or Toure?

I think from most reports he's having a good camp, and looks to be primary punt return guy.  He's more than likely the heir to Randall Cobb in the slot, and offers the Packers a different body type at WR.  

[vegas492]

37 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

Is Rodgers a lock? Has he stood out compared to Winfree or Toure?

I don't feel like he has.  

Although I don't hear much about Winfree right now.

But Toure is having a good camp.

The only reason to go Rodgers over Toure is draft status and different body type.  And...I think you can stash Toure on the PS.  

[Sandy]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

I don't feel like he has.  

Although I don't hear much about Winfree right now.

But Toure is having a good camp.

The only reason to go Rodgers over Toure is draft status and different body type.  And...I think you can stash Toure on the PS.  

Draft status is a big contributing factor, but he hasn't shat the bed either which means he's a lock to me as well.

I've actually heard a lot more on Winfree than Toure aside from Family night, and he has more snaps with the ones on family night so I'd give him the edge if we keep 7. The deal with Winfree for me is I think there's a good chance he gets scooped up by a team with worse WR depth of we try to sneak him to our PS

 

[Ham Sammich]

2 hours ago, Sandy said:

Draft status is a big contributing factor, but he hasn't shat the bed either which means he's a lock to me as well.

I've actually heard a lot more on Winfree than Toure aside from Family night, and he has more snaps with the ones on family night so I'd give him the edge if we keep 7. The deal with Winfree for me is I think there's a good chance he gets scooped up by a team with worse WR depth of we try to sneak him to our PS

 

Seeing as we're starting Allen Lazard and the corpses of Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins, I don't think there are too many teams out there with worse WR depth. Most of these guys like Winfree and Toure are guys every team has on their roster and will cut and stash their own. 

[Norm]

8 minutes ago, Ham Sammich said:

Seeing as we're starting Allen Lazard and the corpses of Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins, I don't think there are too many teams out there with worse WR depth. Most of these guys like Winfree and Toure are guys every team has on their roster and will cut and stash their own. 

Not really saying they're worse but NE has the highest cap hit for WRs/TES this year by a significant margin and they're top 3 are pretty funny. Granted a lot of that is in the TEs. 

[ThatJerkDave]

I think we have a lot of depth at WR.  What we lack is the true top end guy.  I think there are a lot of WR4s on the depth chart.  Do they get poached? Probably not.  I think a lot of teams try to develop their own guys.  And even when they do, there are only rare instances where it really matters all that much, like Tramon Williams.  

[Refugee]

41 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I think we have a lot of depth at WR.  What we lack is the true top end guy.  I think there are a lot of WR4s on the depth chart.  Do they get poached? Probably not.  I think a lot of teams try to develop their own guys.  And even when they do, there are only rare instances where it really matters all that much, like Tramon Williams.  

Or Rasul, or the Gravedigger… but in general teams stick with their guys. The exception might be if they rack up some heavy injuries in one position and then go looking at guys they liked in the draft but never got to grab. The last guy I remember being upset about getting poached was Jamon Meredith. 

[ThatJerkDave]

Just now, Refugee said:

Or Rasul, or the Gravedigger… but in general teams stick with their guys. The exception might be if they rack up some heavy injuries in one position and then go looking at guys they liked in the draft but never got to grab. The last guy I remember being upset about getting poached was Jamon Meredith. 

The one that bugged me was Charles Johnson to the Vikings.  IIRC, he was hurt a lot in camp so we put him on the PS.  They poached him and he had a pretty good rookie season.  That was the season where we ended up using Jarrett Boykin quite a bit.  And the next season we drafted Adams, Abbrederris and Janis to try to replenish the WR ranks.  

[Refugee]

11 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

The one that bugged me was Charles Johnson to the Vikings.  IIRC, he was hurt a lot in camp so we put him on the PS.  They poached him and he had a pretty good rookie season.  That was the season where we ended up using Jarrett Boykin quite a bit.  And the next season we drafted Adams, Abbrederris and Janis to try to replenish the WR ranks.  

With Johnson what irked me is that he got poached by the Browns and then they immediately put him on IR with a knee injury he apparently had all along. Later he went to the hated Vikings and showed a little of the athleticism we needed. Either our staff missed it or Cleveland was willing to work the system more than we were, but we could have put him on IR and had him help our corps at a time he could have provided some juice. 

[ThatJerkDave]

8 minutes ago, Refugee said:

With Johnson what irked me is that he got poached by the Browns and then they immediately put him on IR with a knee injury he apparently had all along. Later he went to the hated Vikings and showed a little of the athleticism we needed. Either our staff missed it or Cleveland was willing to work the system more than we were, but we could have put him on IR and had him help our corps at a time he could have provided some juice. 

I forgot about the Browns.  I thought that he went straight to Minnesota.  You are correct! 

[packfanfb]

UPDATED AFTER PRESEASON GAME 1 AND PUP ACTIVATIONS: 

Instead of an outright 53-man prediction at this point, I thought I would do a current assessment of the roster based on my own personal observations, as well as what I'm reading from TC reports, etc.: 

QB (2):

• Locks: Rodgers; Love
• PS guys: Etling 
• This one is easy. No real questions at the QB position

RB (3)

• Locks: Jones; Dillon
• In the Hunt: Goodson, Taylor
• PS candidate: Baylor, Williams
• Variable: Hill on PUP
• The RBs, outside of Taylor, all had a pretty good night in SF. Moreover, the news of Tonyan coming back off PUP today is probably good news that Hill will be coming off soon, especially since he even more ahead of Tonyan in rehab workouts (at least to the naked eye). The No. 3 RB battle is still wide open, but if Hill comes back soon, he would be the favorite, even coming off injury. Personally, if Hill doesn't come off PUP, I think the favorite for the No. 3 spot is Goodson. 

WR (6 or 7)

• Locks: Watkins, Lazard, Cobb, Doubs, Watson (activated off PUP), Rodgers
• In the Hunt: Winfree; Toure
• PS candidate: Davis, Taylor
• Camp body: Hyman
• Nothing changed here for me after the first preseason game. I don't buy the talk at all that Watkins is a possible cut at this point. Frankly, I don't even understand that argument when the guy was intentionally put on the veteran rest list for the SF game. To me, that ends the debate that he's on the team. Still think there's a possibility the Packers go with 7 guys and I still think that fight is between Toure and Winfree, although Winfree's groin injury could hurt him if misses a even one preseason game. 

TE (4 or 5)

• Locks: Tonyan, Lewis, Deguara
• In the Hunt: Davis, Dafney
• PS candidate: Cannella
• Camp body: Mack
• Suddenly, the TE position is interesting again with Tonyan's activation because if the Packers end up keeping 7 WRs, I think they only go with 4 TEs. That could mean goodbye to either Davis or Dafney. If the Packers go with 6 WRs, you could see them go with 5 TEs and keep them both, like in past years. Dafney is currently injured and missed the SF game. He still wasn't back today so that's something to watch. He could end up being the odd man out and could end up back on the PS. 

OL (8 or 9)

• Locks: Jenkins, Nijman, Runyan, Myers, Newman, Tom, Rhyan
• In the Hunt: Hanson, Van Lanen
• PS candidate: Jones, Walker
• Camp body: Moore, Menet, Clary, Schneider (injured)
• Variables: Bakhtiari on PUP
• Jenkins' activation gives this unit 7 locks, including the 2 top rookies. If Bak stays on PUP, I think both Hanson and Van Lanen stay on as 8 and 9, with one of them being axed when Bak returns, hopefully by Week 5. If Bak comes back in the next few weeks, it's between Hanson and Van Lanen for the 9th spot. Caleb Jones is also making some noise and gives off young-Nijman vibes, but I don't see a path for him to the 53. Definitely PS for him, as well as probably Walker, who could even be an IR candidate because he's just getting back into the swing of things off that off-season injury. 

DL (5 or 6)

• Locks: Clark, Reed, Lowry, Wyatt, Slaton
• In the Hunt: Heflin, Ford
• PS candidate: Slayton
• Camp body: Byers
• Still 5 locks here, but a few notes: (1) if the Packers do keep 6, I think that spot has to go to Heflin over Ford. Heflin had another solid performance against SF. Also, Chris Slayton played well and earned PS consideration. 

EDGE (4 or 5)

• Locks: Gary; Smith
• In the Hunt: Hamilton, Galeai, Garvin, Enagbare, Ramsey
• PS candidate: Manac
• Camp body: Jones
• The SF game didn't provide much clarity for the No. 3 and 4 EDGE positions, but Enagbare is starting to make some noise. Had the best game of the EDGE guys against SF and followed that up with a solid practice today. IMO, Hamilton and Enagbare should be the current front-runners for those next spots behind Smith/Gary. Ramsey just can't get on the field and still dealing with that ankle. If he's not back soon, he might be a lost cause there. Garvin and Galeai might be fighting for the No. 5 spot. 

ILB (4 or 5)

• Locks: Campbell, Walker, Barnes, McDuffie
• In the Hunt: Summers
• PS candidate: Wilborn
• Camp body: Brooks
• The SF game makes me confident enough to declare McDuffie a "lock" at this point, given that he started with the 1s alongside Walker. This unit appears set absent injury unless they go with a 5th ILB, in which case, Summers could be in play. 

CB (6) 

• Locks: Alexander, Stokes, Douglas, Jean-Charles, Nixon
• In the Hunt: Ento, Gafford
• PS candidate: Thomas, Vaughn 
• Nothing much changed here from SF. All of the CBs who played were a bit up and down, with Gafford obviously having the biggest gaffe on the long TD. Still, I think he's firmly in play for the No. 6 spot, fighting with Ento, who now has a toe injury. If that injury keeps Ento out for even one game, that may be the opening Gafford needs to claim the spot. 

SAF (4 or 5)

• Locks: Amos, Savage
• In the Hunt: Scott, Davis, Gaines, Carpenter
• Camp body: Abernathy
• Likely IR: Leavitt 
• Gaines is still hurt, but his door just opened with Leavitt's injury, which supposedly will keep him out "a while." That could mean IR for him. Carpenter also perhaps has some life due to his ability to play STs. The safety group as a whole was pretty bad against SF, so hopefully better things are to come because none of those guys did anything to claim the No. 3 spot. 

ST (3)

• Locks: O'Donnell; Crosby
• In the Hunt: Coco
• PS candidate: Ahmed
• Crosby is still on PUP, but I'm guessing there's no real concern there, otherwise GB would have signed a more experienced kicker instead of toying around with these rookies. Coco for now is the lone LS, but I'm not calling him a "lock" yet. 

[mikebpackfan]

There is just very little drama in the cuts this year. I guess WR is the most intriguing, but even that will elicit more of an eyebrow raise than a jaw drop. 

Edited August 15, 2022 by mikebpackfan

[craig]

14 hours ago, mikebpackfan said:

There is just very little drama in the cuts this year. I guess WR is the most intriguing, but even that will elicit more of an eyebrow raise than a jaw drop. 

Great list, packfan.  Super helpful. 

Yeah, agree, mike.  Seems to me that none of the "in-the-hunt" names have much likelihood of getting claimed.  Seems any of them (that the Packers like) would have a pretty clear, safe path to the PS.  

With several more x games, and some practices, more injuries will happen; so will further simplify things.  (Guys who might be 54th/55th men today, might be 52nd/53rd after a couple of injuries trims the competition.). 

So yeah, I'm totally not in fear of losing anybody I have big hopes for.  

I almost feel like the more challenging game would be to speculate who'll survive the 69-man roster?  Between 69 plus PUP/injured, there will NOT be a lot of the present 90-man roster who will not be getting paid by the Packers.