Marry, Date, Pass (2023 FAs)

[paul-mac]

So I just noticed that next off-season, we’ve got three players who would all be described as full time starters are coming up for their contract year.

 

They are:

 

OLB Bradley Chubb (2018 1st rounder on his option year)

 

DE Dre’Mont Jones (2019 3rd rounder in his fourth and final year of his rookie deal)

 

OG Dalton Risner (2019 2nd rounder in his fourth and final year of his rookie deal)

 

The game is simple. Pick one to marry (long term deal), one to date (franchise tag) and one to pass (let him walk after the season)

 

For comparison:

 

Chubb: 5th overall pick in the 2019 draft and it’s safe to say that we expected him to be a franchise cornerstone player for the next decade. It’s pretty debatable whether he’s lived up to that, albeit mainly due to bad luck with injuries. He missed most of the 2019 season and more than half of 2021. Tellingly, after 12 sacks as a rookie, he’s only managed 7.5 total in the three years since. I like Chubb, but with Gregory getting a big deal, he really needs to prove himself.

Jones: Has been a solid player his whole career but started to emerge a bit more as a key part of our defense in 2021. 15.5 sacks across three years. I expect him to replace Shelby Harris in our defense. Not bad for a 3rd round pick though. PFF love his pass rush win rate. 

 

Risner: Has started 47 of a possible 49 games. Some mixed results, but I think quite a lot of that is due to being next to Cushenberry who has been known to struggle at times and even Bolles who is inconsistent (especially in Risner’s rookie year, he’s of co if se much better now). Overall I think Risner is a decent starting offensive guard in the NFL. Not a special player and probably won’t ever be but I don’t think we’d be in a major rush to replace him either.

 

 

Obviously Chubb is the best player of the three, but I think he really needs a great season to convince me that he’s worth ponying up the $20m a year or whatever he’s going to get on the open market. We could tag him for one more year though. Jones is the one I’d actually want to keep most. Partly because he’s a bit of an unsung hero so will come cheaply, but also because interior pressure for me is one of the best ways to unsettle guys like Mahomes and Herbert. Risner is the guy that I think might walk because the market goes crazy for OL guys even if they are pretty average players. Don’t get me wrong I like him and want him in Denver long term but likely not at the price he could go for.

 

So my answer is:

 

Marry Jones

Date Chubb

Pass Risner 

 

[Broncofan]

Marry is easy - Dre'mont Jones.    The eye test says he's emerging.   Metrics back it up.    Lock him up before he gets REALLY expensive.

Date - probably Chubb, but I could be talked into Risner - if he takes to the ZBS-heavy scheme we may see a return to his rookie year promise.  

Pass - whoever fails to impress between Chubb/Risner.   My biggest problem with Chubb is that without a true alpha EDGE, he's more of a glue guy, but even then, he's not been a run force demon, just solid.   That's a LOT for 20M+.   When he's cheap on the rookie deal, absolute asset.  Top-of-the-line $?  That's where I'd look to see if there's interest next offseason on a pre-tag deal, potentially.

[BroncoBruin]

Great thread.

I think either Dre’Mont or Chubb could be a “marry” for the right price. (Unless I have concerns about Chubb physically declining, then I just move on). Chubb’s value is at its lowest today and Dre’Mont could cost 70% more than he does today with a big season.  If the Broncos believe in these guys, they should buy now because the prices are going waaaay up if they play well. Ownership timeline could have an impact here too. 

Not sure what number it would take to get Dre’Mont to re-sign this off-season. If I’m Dre’Mont, I might bet on having a big statistical season in a great situation so I can hit the market like Malik Jackson and get the biggest score possible. And I don’t think Paton would get into a bidding war there. So I would marry Dre’Mont if I can get that done for a fair value in the next 6 months, but once we’re into October-November it’s probably going to be too late. A 3rd round comp pick is possible if he has the 8-10 sack season he’s capable of. 

The tag number for Chubb next year would be insane. Only a big season where he stays healthy could justify going down that tag + extension route  and that extension would be very costly. The safe bet here is date. But if the FO believes in Chubb as an effective long term NFL player who they want around and don’t have health concerns, they should try to extend him now if the price is depressed enough (mid teens per year, not crazy guarantees). If they think he’s going to have a big season, it will save them a lot of money and give them the advantage of two edge rushers on fair deals before that market goes into the high 20s-30s like WR did this week. 

Totally fine with letting Risner walk. Hometown story is fun but even in the best case scenario where he looks great again, you just let the guard walk and get paid and find a cost controlled replacement.

[lomaxgrUK]

Marry - DreMont Jones. I am not as high on him as others thus far in his career, but I will say this - he's built for obvious passing situations and he hasn't played in a team with a competent Offense, thus he has rarely played with a sizeable lead and therefore the obvious passing situations have been infrequent. 

He could be one of the biggest indirect beneficiaries of the Russell Wilson trade.

Date - Tough one, this. You could argue Risner has gone backwards each year he's been in the league. Injuries have been factor, but that doesn't go away when you play OL in the NFL. That said, I am going with him because of the likely cost vs the other candidate. I think Risner has got to show a lot this year to earn a deal in Denver, certainly more than he has the last 2 years.

Pass - Bradley Chubb. His draft status and reputation far, far outweigh what he brings on the field. I feel for him with the injuries; however, the production just isn't there and I would include his Run Defense in that too.

Sure, he could also be a beneficiary of the Russell Wilson trade. But I have seen little from Chubb to expect some form of dynamic 3rd down pass rush option, and because of his reputation and draft status, I imagine his price will be way higher than it should be. 

[broncos67]

13 hours ago, paul-mac said:

So I just noticed that next off-season, we’ve got three players who would all be described as full time starters are coming up for their contract year.

 

They are:

 

OLB Bradley Chubb (2018 1st rounder on his option year)

 

DE Dre’Mont Jones (2019 3rd rounder in his fourth and final year of his rookie deal)

 

OG Dalton Risner (2019 2nd rounder in his fourth and final year of his rookie deal)

 

The game is simple. Pick one to marry (long term deal), one to date (franchise tag) and one to pass (let him walk after the season)

 

For comparison:

 

Chubb: 5th overall pick in the 2019 draft and it’s safe to say that we expected him to be a franchise cornerstone player for the next decade. It’s pretty debatable whether he’s lived up to that, albeit mainly due to bad luck with injuries. He missed most of the 2019 season and more than half of 2021. Tellingly, after 12 sacks as a rookie, he’s only managed 7.5 total in the three years since. I like Chubb, but with Gregory getting a big deal, he really needs to prove himself.

Jones: Has been a solid player his whole career but started to emerge a bit more as a key part of our defense in 2021. 15.5 sacks across three years. I expect him to replace Shelby Harris in our defense. Not bad for a 3rd round pick though. PFF love his pass rush win rate. 

 

Risner: Has started 47 of a possible 49 games. Some mixed results, but I think quite a lot of that is due to being next to Cushenberry who has been known to struggle at times and even Bolles who is inconsistent (especially in Risner’s rookie year, he’s of co if se much better now). Overall I think Risner is a decent starting offensive guard in the NFL. Not a special player and probably won’t ever be but I don’t think we’d be in a major rush to replace him either.

 

 

Obviously Chubb is the best player of the three, but I think he really needs a great season to convince me that he’s worth ponying up the $20m a year or whatever he’s going to get on the open market. We could tag him for one more year though. Jones is the one I’d actually want to keep most. Partly because he’s a bit of an unsung hero so will come cheaply, but also because interior pressure for me is one of the best ways to unsettle guys like Mahomes and Herbert. Risner is the guy that I think might walk because the market goes crazy for OL guys even if they are pretty average players. Don’t get me wrong I like him and want him in Denver long term but likely not at the price he could go for.

 

So my answer is:

 

Marry Jones

Date Chubb

Pass Risner 

 

Completely agree with this. If Chubb can't go a full season though, the reality is we probably pass on both he and Risner and move on. Even if he stays healthy, I wouldn't give him a lucrative long-term deal. Jones is the guy you keep given his performance and the fact his contract will likely be reasonable.

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Marry - DreMont Jones. I am not as high on him as others thus far in his career, but I will say this - he's built for obvious passing situations and he hasn't played in a team with a competent Offense, thus he has rarely played with a sizeable lead and therefore the obvious passing situations have been infrequent. 

He could be one of the biggest indirect beneficiaries of the Russell Wilson trade.

Date - Tough one, this. You could argue Risner has gone backwards each year he's been in the league. Injuries have been factor, but that doesn't go away when you play OL in the NFL. That said, I am going with him because of the likely cost vs the other candidate. I think Risner has got to show a lot this year to earn a deal in Denver, certainly more than he has the last 2 years.

Pass - Bradley Chubb. His draft status and reputation far, far outweigh what he brings on the field. I feel for him with the injuries; however, the production just isn't there and I would include his Run Defense in that too.

Sure, he could also be a beneficiary of the Russell Wilson trade. But I have seen little from Chubb to expect some form of dynamic 3rd down pass rush option, and because of his reputation and draft status, I imagine his price will be way higher than it should be. 

FWIW we could absolutely pass on Risner/Chubb this offseason and it would be the better call.  For the purpose of this thread, though, we have to pick - but it wouldn't be shocking if only 1 of the 3 guys was back for 2023.     It's why hitting the trenches is such a big priority with our Rd2-4 5-pick set, along with EDGE/ILB.

If we went EDGE/ILB/DL/OL & DL/OL with 5 picks in that 60-120 range (order subject to change obv), wouldn't be at all opposed, especially given the strength of the this draft is far more EDGE/trench related.   

Edited March 24, 2022 by Broncofan

[AnAngryAmerican]

I get what a lot of you guys are saying as regards Dalton Risner, but I have it on good authority, very good authority, that he is one of the most respected people in the entire building at Dove Valley, not one of the most respected players, one of the most respected people. Unless he has a downright awful year, I don't think there is a chance in hell they let him leave. And furthermore, knowing Risner's makeup, he would be one who will willingly take a hometown discount to play for the team of which he grew up being a fan. 

[grizmo78]

Added on for Risner is that his rookie year was in Scangerello's scheme which more similarly will resemble what we do this year rather than the past two where he has struggled. Doesn't mean he'll be great or anything, but hopefully that helps. 

[AKRNA]

6 hours ago, grizmo78 said:

Added on for Risner is that his rookie year was in Scangerello's scheme which more similarly will resemble what we do this year rather than the past two where he has struggled. Doesn't mean he'll be great or anything, but hopefully that helps. 

I think he's a great guy, good for the community and perfect team representative. That said, once teams realized they could beat him with a bull rush consistently his value dropped a lot. Just not much of an anchor. Lacking the "sand in the pants" so to speak. We need an upgrade there.

[paul-mac]

Where are we with this after just over a quarter of the season? 
 

 

Chubb is playing his best football since his rookie year and him being double teamed is a big part of why Gregory and Browning have looked so good. But when we have Gregory and Browning locked up and Bonitto coming through, can we justify $20m per year? 
 

Dre’Mont Jones getting better and better as an interior pass rusher, but never convinced me in the run game.

 

Risner is one of our better OL but that’s not saying much.

 

I’m starting to lean back towards paying Chubb over the other two. 

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, paul-mac said:

Where are we with this after just over a quarter of the season? 
 

 

Chubb is playing his best football since his rookie year and him being double teamed is a big part of why Gregory and Browning have looked so good. But when we have Gregory and Browning locked up and Bonitto coming through, can we justify $20m per year? 
 

Dre’Mont Jones getting better and better as an interior pass rusher, but never convinced me in the run game.

 

Risner is one of our better OL but that’s not saying much.

 

I’m starting to lean back towards paying Chubb over the other two. 

It's early on Dre'mont.   Still believe in his talent.  

Nothing against Chubb, he's been better for sure.   But how Randy Gregory and Baron Browning perform might in fact influence the Chubb equation even more.    It's only 1 game and IND, but OMG what a debut as a starter for Browning.

At least we have 12 more games to evaluate this.  I would agree that Risner may be the least impactful of the 3 guys discussed.

[lomaxgrUK]

There is just no way the team can justify giving Risner anything close to a big contract. It seems more and more young players are coming in and contributing early on the OL (hi Chiefs, hi Chargers) at a farrrr cheaper cost than a veteran might command.

I'm not over the moon about giving any of them a lot of guaranteed money, in truth.

[champ11]

Only reason Risner has the status he currently has is he's from Colorado. He's been a disappointment. But I respect it lol 

 

Edited October 9, 2022 by champ11

[AnAngryAmerican]

2 hours ago, champ11 said:

Only reason Risner has the status he currently has is he's from Colorado. He's been a disappointment. But I respect it lol 

 

I’m not going to sit here and say he’s Quinton Nelson but he’s not a bad LG by any stretch. He’ll take a hometown discount to stay, we will have the money, he has good chemistry with Bolles and has been trusted to make line calls.

Risener is not going anywhere.  

[broncosfan07]

Risner is at least average, neither good or bad but doesn’t flat suck at his job, I’d be ok with giving him a second contract provided it’s reasonable. I don’t think he’s a long term option but gives us some leeway to fill other holes before worrying about upgrading his spot.