2K22 Rookies

[onejayhawk]

3 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

A comparison of all rookie Chiefs WR seasons under Andy Reid (rookie year || year two):

2022 2nd round Skyy Moore: 16 games 22 catches 250 yds 0 TD || TBD

2021 5th round Cornell Powell: 3 games 0 0 0 || 3 games 0 0 0

2019 2nd round Mecole Hardman: 16 games 26 catches 538 yds 6 TD || 16 games 41 catches 560 yds 4 TD

=== Above is where Veach became GM and Mahomes became starting QB ===

2017 4th round Jehu Chesson: 12 games 2 catches 18 yds 0 TD || 12 games 1 catch 7 yds 0 TD (year 2 w/ Washington)

2016 4th round Demarcus Robinson 16 games  0 0 0 || 16 games 21 catches 212 yds 0 TD

2016 5th round Tyreek Hill 16 games 61 catches 593 yds 6 TD || 75 catches 1183 yds 7 TD

2015 3rd round Chris Conley 16 games 17 catches 199 yds 1 TD || 16 games 44 catches 530 yds 0 TD

2015 7th round Da'Ron Brown 0 0 0 0 || 0 0 0 0

This should go with more of a discussion about our WR scouting being terrible. But in line with that, I see no reason to believe that Skyy will become a starting WR except for homerism and maybe a lack of bodies.

I look at all the players taken 3rd round or higher and find good reason to think he will be a starter soon. 

[Jakuvious]

On 1/4/2023 at 7:40 PM, kingseanjohn said:

Skyy Moore - Absolutely terrible when put at punt returner. He had 14 punt returns and 3 fumbles before being pulled. At WR, he had one or two games where you think it was starting to click but it's never materialized. At least 4 of Mahomes' INTs have been when targeting Moore as well. D

3 of his INTs, for the record. PFR actually tracks this. 3 for Kelce, 3 for JuJu, 3 for Moore, and then 1 each for McKinnon, MVS, and Watson.

[Jakuvious]

I think Moore has been fine on offense. Has shown good hands (about even with Noah Gray and Mecole Hardman for the lowest drop rate on the team), his physical traits, particularly his agility have flashed after the catch with some good vision and jukes (he's in between Hardman and Toney in YAC per catch), he's a little below JuJu but well above Hardman, MVS, and Watson in yards per route run. He's just not getting much opportunity. Which makes sense, because we actually have a pretty loaded WR room this year, on top of having the best receiving TE in NFL history and the fourth most productive receiving RB in the league right now in terms of yards. We don't really need him to be super productive yet. We need him to prepare to replace JuJu next year.

I really don't get how someone can have watched the touches Moore has gotten this year and not seen the potential. The punt returning was crap, absolutely, get him off that. But he looks more dynamic than almost any of our skill position guys when he gets the ball in his hands. He looks crisper running routes than anyone but maybe JuJu. He can also clearly catch the ball when it's not a punt. There's a lot to like there that was demonstrated in his college tape and has still shown when he's seen the field this year.

I really think his role has just been covered this year. He makes the most sense running mostly short and intermediate routes where his route running abilities can help him get open quickly. That's pretty well covered by JuJu, and in some different ways, Kelce. Toney has taken the Hardman stuff, along with a few downfield routes. MVS is your stretch the defense guy, even if he and Mahomes aren't in sync they still have to respect it. Watson is...Demarcus Robinson? I don't know. But when JuJu was out against LAC, and being weened back against LAR, lo and behold, Moore had his most productive games as a Chief. Moore is the long term solve for JuJu's spot. But right now.....we have JuJu.

[Chiefer]

I think I’d rather have Juju instead of Skyy going forward, no offense to Skyy

[onejayhawk]

7 hours ago, Chiefer said:

I think I’d rather have Juju instead of Skyy going forward, no offense to Skyy

You get both. No offense to Skyy, he's not beating out the veteran yet.

What you will not see, most likely, is MVS instead of Skyy or Hardman instead of Skyy. Those contracts likely walk out the door. Next summer I expect to see JuJu, KT, Skyy, Watson, and the usual rookies and ST players.

[Jakuvious]

On 1/6/2023 at 9:49 AM, Chiefer said:

I think I’d rather have Juju instead of Skyy going forward, no offense to Skyy

It may be less JuJu versus Skyy, and more JuJu versus Skyy + $15M.

I really do like Skyy, I just think his role was already filled this year. If we don't retain JuJu, I think many will be pleasantly surprised.

[onejayhawk]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

It may be less JuJu versus Skyy, and more JuJu versus Skyy + $15M.

I really do like Skyy, I just think his role was already filled this year. If we don't retain JuJu, I think many will be pleasantly surprised.

Where do you get $15 MM for JuJu? OB Jr gets that but he will likely sign elsewhere.

JuJu made less than $4 MM this year and Sportrac calculates his annual value at less than $10 MM. 

[Jakuvious]

22 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Where do you get $15 MM for JuJu? OB Jr gets that but he will likely sign elsewhere.

JuJu made less than $4 MM this year and Sportrac calculates his annual value at less than $10 MM. 

He was $4M last year because he signed a one year prove it deal coming off of an injury year where he played 5 games and had 129 receiving yards. JuJu just went for 78 catches, 933 yards, 3 TDs. Here are some of your WR free agents last year. Christian Kirk had a very similar statline in 2021 and signed for $18M per in 2022. Allen Robinson was less than half as productive in 2021 and went for $15.5M in 2022. Russell Gage, D.J. Chark, and MVS were all far less productive in 2021 than JuJu was this year, and each got $10M in 2022. Going back one offseason, I actually think Corey Davis might be the closest comparison statistically, 65 catches, 984 yards, 5 TDs in 2020, got paid $12.5M in 2021. Tack a little on there for inflation.

He will unquestionably get more than $10M per year. He's still young, it's a light free agent market for WRs, and there's no question he's a more enticing free agent signing than MVS, Russell Gage, or D.J. Chark were last year. He's 26, and is the most productive WR who will be on the market this offseason. Maybe it won't quite make it to $15M, but it will be close. That would translate to being the 25th highest paid WR in the NFL. So that's basically low end #1 WR money.

I think OBJ gets at least $18M as well. Very likely more than $20M. Free agents get overpaid unless they're old or injured.

[onejayhawk]

35 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

He was $4M last year because he signed a one year prove it deal coming off of an injury year where he played 5 games and had 129 receiving yards. JuJu just went for 78 catches, 933 yards, 3 TDs. Here are some of your WR free agents last year. Christian Kirk had a very similar statline in 2021 and signed for $18M per in 2022. Allen Robinson was less than half as productive in 2021 and went for $15.5M in 2022. Russell Gage, D.J. Chark, and MVS were all far less productive in 2021 than JuJu was this year, and each got $10M in 2022. Going back one offseason, I actually think Corey Davis might be the closest comparison statistically, 65 catches, 984 yards, 5 TDs in 2020, got paid $12.5M in 2021. Tack a little on there for inflation.

He will unquestionably get more than $10M per year. He's still young, it's a light free agent market for WRs, and there's no question he's a more enticing free agent signing than MVS, Russell Gage, or D.J. Chark were last year. He's 26, and is the most productive WR who will be on the market this offseason. Maybe it won't quite make it to $15M, but it will be close. That would translate to being the 25th highest paid WR in the NFL. So that's basically low end #1 WR money.

I think OBJ gets at least $18M as well. Very likely more than $20M. Free agents get overpaid unless they're old or injured.

JuJu could very well sign for over $10 MM but to say it's unquestionable is over the top. OB Jr. getting $18-$20 MM is a more reasonable.

As you say, MVS was signed at $10 MM. I do not see them paying that again but I also don't know the cap hit for releasing him. I am not sure that they would pay it for JuJu and he proved out.

Still, MVS, KT, Skyy and Watson would not suck. As pointed out, JuJu was occupying a lot of Skyy's natural route tree. I am much more concerned with our LT situation. 

[kingseanjohn]

34 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Still, MVS, KT, Skyy and Watson would not suck. As pointed out, JuJu was occupying a lot of Skyy's natural route tree. I am much more concerned with our LT situation. 

I definitely agree about being more concerned with LT. I'm really hoping that we can tag and trade Brown so we're in a position to draft his replacement. I'd trust several of the LTs in this class to play day one next to Thuney. Really though, I'm hoping for a competition between an early round OT, Niang, Tega-Wanogho, and another vet for both OT spots.

But I'll have to disagree and say that MVS, KT, Skyy, and Watson would suck. MVS has trouble catching the ball, KT is injury prone, Skyy collects a paycheck, and Watson has been solid but inconsistent. I have high hopes for Ross but we'll see how well he's recovered. Kemp and Smith-Marsette should have a legit chance at making the 53 next year.

[mayanfootball]

17 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

I think OBJ gets at least $18M as well. Very likely more than $20M. Free agents get overpaid unless they're old or injured.

I'll take JuJu at $15mill and skip OBJ and save my $$ for extending Chris Jones. Keeping KT and Skyy and Watson doesn't sound bad to me.

KT has the X factor and can make big plays out of small ones. Skyy has big hands and usually will catch it if Mahomes doesn't throw it behind him too much (as he seems to do lately with all our WR's and Kelce). Watson has that big play ability. That pass down the sideline to him against the Raiders was a thing of beauty.

Edited January 9, 2023 by mayanfootball

[Jakuvious]

30 minutes ago, mayanfootball said:

I'll take JuJu at $15mill and skip OBJ and save my $$ for extending Chris Jones. Keeping KT and Skyy and Watson doesn't sound bad to me.

KT has the X factor and can make big plays out of small ones. Skyy has big hands and usually will catch it if Mahomes doesn't throw it behind him too much (as he seems to do lately with all our WR's and Kelce). Watson has that big play ability. That pass down the sideline to him against the Raiders was a thing of beauty.

Purely on player value, I think I would agree. I like JuJu at $15M more than OBJ at like $22M. But....roster building may honestly force the opposite. The LT market is absolutely barren this offseason. You have OBJ and a lot of either old players (Jason Peters, Riley Reiff), bad players (George Fant, Matt Pryor, Calvin Anderson), or players who really belong more at G or RT (Kaleb McGary, Mike McGlinchey, Jawaan Taylor, Yosh Nijman, etc.) So, you lose OBJ, you almost force yourself into needing to absolutely nail a draft pick for an immediate starter at LT, otherwise you could legitimately lose 2023 to that position. WR at least has some other options, especially if they believe in Moore's development. Moore, MVS, KT, Watson, and then either retaining Hardman or drafting someone or finding a cheaper free agent. Still have Kelce, can bring back McKinnon, still have Gray and Fortson as TE depth. WR without JuJu might be a much stronger position than LT without OBJ.

I don't like the prospect of paying Brown, but I can see where it may be the least crappy option in the end.

[RedGold]

I wouldn't mind a George Fant/Rookie competition next year.     Fant is pretty dang good in pass pro,  if he can get his knee right.   And capable at both spots.  

I get it though,   for as much as I complain about Brown..  we will likely get worse at LT next year if we let Brown go.     I would rather take the drop in production for the chance at getting more bang for our buck though.    If we can keep Brown below 19 Mil (which i still don't like),   I wouldn't complain.    Or just keeping him on a 2nd tag and getting stronger behind him (that would be my preference).

 

[mayanfootball]

5 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

I don't like the prospect of paying Brown, but I can see where it may be the least crappy option in the end.

I'm happy with early OT's available in the draft.

Skorinski, Northwestern, blocked David Ojabo, Michigan 2021,  fairly well.

Broderick Jones, Georgia, is strong and powerful and can block well with one-arm extensions and near-elite length.

Anton Harrison, Oklahoma, 6'5", 315lbs., athleticism translates into pass protection. He can cover excessive ground to the sideline, traverses the line effortlessly as a pulling blocker.

Any of these OT's should be available with the Chiefs pick at #30 or higher with a trade up.

Flash update: Olumyiwa Fashanu is  a redshirt sophomore OT for Penn State. At only 20 yrs old, if he declares for the draft, he could be come the 1st. or 2nd. OT selected. Paris Johnson, Ohio State would join him as the 1,2 selections, IMO.

Edited January 10, 2023 by mayanfootball

[Jakuvious]

24 minutes ago, mayanfootball said:

I'm happy with early OT's available in the draft.

Skorinski, Northwestern, blocked David Ojabo, Michigan 2021,  fairly well.

Broderick Jones, Georgia, is strong and powerful and can block well with one-arm extensions and near-elite length.

Anton Harrison, Oklahoma, 6'5", 315lbs., athleticism translates into pass protection. He can cover excessive ground to the sideline, traverses the line effortlessly as a pulling blocker.

Any of these OT's should be available with the Chiefs pick at #30 or higher with a trade up.

I will openly admit, I know absolutely nothing about the 2023 draft prospects. So if that's the case, that would definitely be a positive for us.