Round 2 Pick 34; Christian Watson, WR, NDSU

[CWood21]

58 minutes ago, craig said:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

• Using Rich Hill draft-value chart, the two 2nd rounders were 106 and 91 = 197.  
• Picks 27, 30, and 34 list as 216, 196, and 175.  
• So, relative to pick #34, it seems a modest overpay. 
• Relative to 1st-round #30, fair;
• relative to picks 26, 27, or 28, right around where the Packers used their prior #1 pick, it would "count" as an excellent value.  

It's always scouting.  Obviously Gute valued the player as a first-round value, at #30 or better.  So he was willing to pay a price chart-valued as worth #30 or better. 

We'd seen some reports where one or two AFC GM's or scouts had said there were like 15 first-rounders on their boards.  Some posters have felt like 20-70 is a relatively flat plateau, such that any two second-rounders were more valuable than a single pick in the 20's.  Gute appears to have analyzed differently, and viewed Watson on a different plateau from the other 2nd-round WR.  Personally, I was of the view that two solid capable 2nd rounders would be helpful; but I am completely comfortable deferring to Gute and his scouts.  

Since Gute essentially paid a late-first-round price, and effectively valued Watson as a late-first-round value, I'd kinda like to look back at this as a 3-late-first-rounders draft.  Hopefully all three shake out as solid, durable, asset starters for the duration of their rookie deals.  And ideally one or more will not only be a solid starter but will emerge as kind of star(s).  

There's a LOT of variable involved in making significant deals.  What is Team X willing to give up to move up the board?  What is Team Y want in return for moving down the board?  How does Team X's board shake out when they're approaching a team about moving up?  How does Team Y's board look like when they're receiving offers for their pick?  There's no single answer to those questions.

But I do think we can safely make a few assumptions:
1.) Green Bay had Christian Watson as the highest ranked WR left, and probably in a tier of his own amongst WRs.
2.) George Pickens while in the tier as far as talent goes, was probably off the board for character concerns.
3.) Christian Watson was probably one of the last guys in his tier, and the needs met value.

That being said, outside of George Pickens (who I think at this point we have to assume isn't on our board) he's the only one with #1 WR potential.

 

[PossibleCabbage]

3 minutes ago, Refugee said:

Tells you exactly what route he’ll be running, still can’t be stopped! 

Someday there's going to be a good receiver with a number in the 80s again, I still believe.

[CWood21]

15 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I see a smoother athlete on his end-arounds and returns. When he moves in space with the ball he definitely looks different than Metcalf. I think this is evident in agility numbers, too. Watson is average there, Metcalf is borderline awful.

Yeah.  I definitely don't see Metcalf.  Metcalf was borderline robotoic when he was asked to sink his hips.  There might be a bit of stiffness in Watson's, but not nearly as bad as Metcalf.

[Cpdaly23]

1 minute ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Someday there's going to be a good receiver with a number in the 80s again, I still believe.

Yes, but not #82.  It’s literally the worst of all the numbers in the 80’s.

[Leader]

Just now, CWood21 said:

There's a LOT of variable involved in making significant deals.  What is Team X willing to give up to move up the board?  What is Team Y want in return for moving down the board?  How does Team X's board shake out when they're approaching a team about moving up?  How does Team Y's board look like when they're receiving offers for their pick?  There's no single answer to those questions.

But I do think we can safely make a few assumptions:
1.) Green Bay had Christian Watson as the highest ranked WR left, and probably in a tier of his own amongst WRs.
2.) George Pickens while in the tier as far as talent goes, was probably off the board for character concerns.
3.) Christian Watson was probably one of the last guys in his tier, and the needs met value.

That being said, outside of George Pickens (who I think at this point we have to assume isn't on our board) he's the only one with #1 WR potential.

And I applaud Gute for switching gears somewhat and going to get "his guy" I would have liked Pickens just as much - but I'm not running things and not crying over spilled milk. We desperately needed NOT to break out the old: "Well the board didnt break our way" reasoning.  Good. The need was there. the clock was ticking....so get your guy.

[AlexGreen#20]

5 minutes ago, CrazyJoeDavola said:

I'm going to quote this every time I read it until it stops. Can we please recognize the difference between FCS and D2?

Bro, I promise, I'm not obfuscating this. 

My best recollection of the quote is that the scout specifically and incorrectly said D2. 

I may be incorrect, in the exact wording, but that's my best recollection.

[HighCalebR]

I knew they wouldnt do Jmon like that.

Edited April 30, 2022 by HighCalebR

[Packerraymond]

Guys comps are "comparisons" there will never be another Metcalf clone in the NFL I'm pretty confident in that. 

Tall, explosive player who's size/speed is almost uncoverable in the vertical route tree. Uses that speed to dictate coverage and create instant separation for himself in the short route tree due to the threat of his speed. Struggles to break at full speed and needs to break down to run in/out breaking routes.

^^^Who else in the NFL would that describe? Javon Walker was very similar too, would you all prefer if I call him similar to Javon Walker?

[Leader]

3 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Guys comps are "comparisons" there will never be another Metcalf clone in the NFL I'm pretty confident in that. 

Tall, explosive player who's size/speed is almost uncoverable in the vertical route tree. Uses that speed to dictate coverage and create instant separation for himself in the short route tree due to the threat of his speed. Struggles to break at full speed and needs to break down to run in/out breaking routes.

^^^Who else in the NFL would that describe? Javon Walker was very similar too, would you all prefer if I call him similar to Javon Walker?

Good analysis. I think they'll use him well enough and that he'll improve his route running over time.
The tougher competition and available expertise to coach/guide him will make him better.
The hands......somebody needs to get him working on hand strength.....like today. He'll be a secure hands catcher eventually. Hell, even MVS was plucking passes out of the air with his hands by time he left.

[CrazyJoeDavola]

14 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Bro, I promise, I'm not obfuscating this. 

My best recollection of the quote is that the scout specifically and incorrectly said D2. 

I may be incorrect, in the exact wording, but that's my best recollection.

I know the quote you are referencing but it's been a while since I saw it. If he did say D2 then I understand what you are doing. But I'm an NDSU alum and so many people I talk to or read refer to it as D2 and it's incredibly annoying at times. I will have to go look up the quote now to see what he said exactly. 

[Packerraymond]

8 minutes ago, Leader said:

Good analysis. I think they'll use him well enough and that he'll improve his route running over time.
The tougher competition and available expertise to coach/guide him will make him better.
The hands......somebody needs to get him working on hand strength.....like today. He'll be a secure hands catcher eventually. Hell, even MVS was plucking passes out of the air with his hands by time he left.

You have to be a great route runner when you're 4.55 Davante. When you're 6'4, run 4.3 with a 1.45 it honestly won't matter if he ever runs great routes. The gift of speed.

[craig]

Crazy, I work at D2 school in Moorhead MN.  The difference between NDSU/Missouri Valley and D2 schools in our conference is massive.  Larger than the difference between the NFL and the Big 10, I expect.   So I get your frustration!  Heh heh, that said, if the scout imprecisely said "D2", then the scout said that, whatever.  It's his quote and Alex is just quoting it.  But yeah, the Missouri Valley conference is probably pretty equivalent to lots of the non-power FBS conferences.  

[Leader]

6 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

You have to be a great route runner when you're 4.55 Davante. When you're 6'4, run 4.3 with a 1.45 it honestly won't matter if he ever runs great routes. The gift of speed.

Oh...I agree. I'm just saying the finer points of the game/positon will come to him over time. Will he ever become Davante-like in his breaks and off the LOS? Probably not - but not to worry.

He's a talent no question. Has the raw skills to build on. He'll do well for us...and damn, I'm glad we got a top WR. Phew! That was close to your "just run the boyz back" theory! LOL

I wanted Pickens, Burks or Watson as our WR1 coming out of this draft (didnt think we had any shot at the top guys so why bother drooling over them?). Differing skill sets and usage possibilities coming out of college - but I think all 3 will be productive WRs in the NFL.

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by Leader

[CrazyJoeDavola]

1 minute ago, craig said:

Crazy, I work at D2 school in Moorhead MN.  The difference between NDSU/Missouri Valley and D2 schools in our conference is massive.  Larger than the difference between the NFL and the Big 10, I expect.   So I get your frustration!  Heh heh, that said, if the scout imprecisely said "D2", then the scout said that, whatever.  It's his quote and Alex is just quoting it.  But yeah, the Missouri Valley conference is probably pretty equivalent to lots of the non-power FBS conferences.  

@Norm and I briefly talked about the gap between the two earlier. I understand now that Alex is just referencing the quote and I am sure he knows full well the differences. I couldn't find a quote just Jim Nagy referencing he talked to a coach that player against both and he said Watson is the best he has seen since Moss was at Marshall. 
 

A guy I played with in high school got a partial scholly to play at Moorehead abs never even started at a ND high school. Just kind of illustrates the talent level discrepancy. 
 

 

[HighCalebR]

7 minutes ago, craig said:

Crazy, I work at D2 school in Moorhead MN.  The difference between NDSU/Missouri Valley and D2 schools in our conference is massive.  Larger than the difference between the NFL and the Big 10, I expect.   So I get your frustration!  Heh heh, that said, if the scout imprecisely said "D2", then the scout said that, whatever.  It's his quote and Alex is just quoting it.  But yeah, the Missouri Valley conference is probably pretty equivalent to lots of the non-power FBS conferences.  

You a dragon, bro? Watch out for South Snarr. Lotta smoke in those halls.