Round 2 Pick 34; Christian Watson, WR, NDSU

[fattlipp]

I wanna see the 3 WRs race in pads.

Watson 23 mph ? Rumored  - 4.3

Doubs 21.25 mph

Watkins. 22.3 mph

[TheEagle]

4 hours ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

Christian Watson is 23 years old

He just turned 23, so let’s not make him out to be an old prospect. Age in a prospect has become the new most overrated metric in draft analysis. Devonte Wyatt turned 24 in March. I can see an argument for labeling him an old prospect. There are a **** ton of prospects in this draft who are around Watson’s age or older. Blame COVID.

Edited May 27, 2022 by TheEagle

[TheEagle]

4 hours ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

Waiting 3 years for the 34th pick is ridiculous. 

Rashan Gary took 3 years. Was he worth it? If Watson was the WR equivalent to Gary, would it be worth it? What pick was Gary? I know Gary was younger, but he also played against better competition. I don’t think it will take Watson 4 years to produce—like Jordy and Adams. However, expecting a 2nd round WR to be a 800+ receiver as a rookie is as ridiculous. It’s actually relatively rare. Even expecting that from somebody like Dotson or Burks (guys who were taken mid 1st round) would be a stretch. How many guys did that in their rookie years in the last 3 years?

Edited May 27, 2022 by TheEagle

[TheEagle]

Jordy Nelson turned 23 in May the year he was drafted—just like Watson. Was he considered an old prospect?

[Tperk]

14 minutes ago, TheEagle said:

Rashan Gary took 3 years. Was he worth it? If Watson was the WR equivalent to Gary, would it be worth it? What pick was Gary? I know Gary was younger, but he also played against better competition. I don’t think it will take Watson 4 years to produce—like Jordy and Adams. However, expecting a 2nd round WR to be a 800+ receiver as a rookie is as ridiculous. It’s actually relatively rare. Even expecting that from somebody like Dotson or Burks (guys who were taken mid 1st round) would be a stretch. How many guys did that in their rookie years in the last 3 years?

Amon St Brown had 900+ yards last year as a 4th round pick.

DK Metcalf had 900 yards as pick #64 in 2019 and McLaurin had 919 yards as pick #76.

 

Not really that rare.

Edited May 27, 2022 by Tperk
add

[Uffdaswede]

I think 50 catches, 750 yards, and 8 touchdowns. He’ll get plenty of snaps. 

[TheEagle]

1 hour ago, Tperk said:

Amon St Brown had 900+ yards last year as a 4th round pick.

DK Metcalf had 900 yards as pick #64 in 2019 and McLaurin had 919 yards as pick #76.

 

Not really that rare.

There will always be exceptions, but I'm looking for reasonable expectations.

Edited May 27, 2022 by TheEagle

[TheEagle]

1 hour ago, Tperk said:

Amon St Brown had 900+ yards last year as a 4th round pick.

DK Metcalf had 900 yards as pick #64 in 2019 and McLaurin had 919 yards as pick #76.

 

Not really that rare.

Depends on what you define as rare. Instead of rare, how about unlikely? I've been keeping draft stats since 2014. From 2014-2021 there were 41 WRs drafted in the 2nd round. Five of them had 800+ yards as a rookie (12%). A.J. Brown is the only one who had 1000 yards. Tee Higgins had 908 yards. DK Metcalf had 900 yards. Chase Claypool had 873 yards. Deebo Samuel had 802 yards. The list of those that didn't get 800 yards includes Michael Pittman (503 yards), D.J. Chark (174 yards), Courtland Sutton (704 yards), Christian Kirk (590 yards), Laviska Shenault (600 yards), Jarvis Landry (758 yards), Tyler Boyd (603 yards), Allen Robinson (548 yards), and Davante Adams (446 yards).

I just want to keep a proper prospective on what would be a good year for a 2nd round WR their rookie year.

I think Watson will hit 40+ receptions for 600+ yards as a rookie. I think it's a decent possibility that the Packers will have 5 players that hit 500+ receiving yards.

Edited May 27, 2022 by TheEagle

[vegas492]

10 hours ago, fattlipp said:

I wanna see the 3 WRs race in pads.

Watson 23 mph ? Rumored  - 4.3

Doubs 21.25 mph

Watkins. 22.3 mph

You do that and Watkins lands on IR after the race.  

What I would find interesting is this...put Watson and Doubs in pads.  Throw in Lazard.  Run a straight 40 yard dash and see where they come in.  I'll bet Lazard isn't all that far behind.

Now do it again, in pads, but run a NFL route and end it after 25 yards.  I'll bet Lazard is there first.

It's speed versus NFL route speed.

[ThatJerkDave]

9 hours ago, TheEagle said:

He just turned 23, so let’s not make him out to be an old prospect. Age in a prospect has become the new most overrated metric in draft analysis. Devonte Wyatt turned 24 in March. I can see an argument for labeling him an old prospect. There are a **** ton of prospects in this draft who are around Watson’s age or older. Blame COVID.

Yeah, but if you sign that 24 year old for 5 years and then re-sign him for 4 years, you only have a player with a 9 year career...

 

oh wait, aren't those good?  

 

People are making way too much of a deal about that.  Look at the type of players that Green Bay gives a big third contract to:   Aaron Rodgers, David Bakhtiari, Charles Woodson, tried Davante Adams, probably would have offered one to Nick Collins.  Heck, we didn't give Clay Matthews a third contract.  So we let Watson and Wyatt go when they are 33 or 32 instead of 28...  So what?

[ThatJerkDave]

8 hours ago, TheEagle said:

Depends on what you define as rare. Instead of rare, how about unlikely? I've been keeping draft stats since 2014. From 2014-2021 there were 41 WRs drafted in the 2nd round. Five of them had 800+ yards as a rookie (12%). A.J. Brown is the only one who had 1000 yards. Tee Higgins had 908 yards. DK Metcalf had 900 yards. Chase Claypool had 873 yards. Deebo Samuel had 802 yards. The list of those that didn't get 800 yards includes Michael Pittman (503 yards), D.J. Chark (174 yards), Courtland Sutton (704 yards), Christian Kirk (590 yards), Laviska Shenault (600 yards), Jarvis Landry (758 yards), Tyler Boyd (603 yards), Allen Robinson (548 yards), and Davante Adams (446 yards).

I just want to keep a proper prospective on what would be a good year for a 2nd round WR their rookie year.

I think Watson will hit 40+ receptions for 600+ yards as a rookie. I think it's a decent possibility that the Packers will have 5 players that hit 500+ receiving yards.

Do you also happen to have a count of the number of targets each received?

I know that Amon-Ra had a ton of targets last season.  With as fickle as Aaron Rodgers can be, do we really expect him to give a rookie WR a ton of targets? And if we watch the games back, there is a reasonable number of MVS "targets" that were really throw aways when nothing was really open.  Just heave it 40 yards down field and see if MVS can catch up to it, but there is very little risk of getting intercepted.

[craig]

10 hours ago, TheEagle said:

..From 2014-2021 there were 41 WRs drafted in the 2nd round.

• Five of them had 800+ yards as a rookie (12%). 
• The list of those that didn't get 800 yards includes Michael Pittman (503 yards), ... Courtland Sutton (704 yards), Christian Kirk (590 yards), Laviska Shenault (600 yards), Jarvis Landry (758 yards), Tyler Boyd (603 yards), Allen Robinson (548 yards), and Davante Adams (446 yards)..

Thanks, Eagle.  Yeah, I think that's really helpful context.  That's 5 with >800, 7 more ≥548, plus Adams.  So about 1/3 of the guys around 550 or more.  Thoughts:

• It's the National injury league.  If Rodgers has a season-ending injury, or Watson himself, that might undercut his yards.
• The Packers WR group is poor.  Watson has a pretty wide-open window of opportunity to play a lot of snaps.  Good chance to be one of the higher-rookie-yardage guys.
• Watson will be one of the highest-drafted 2nd-rounder in your sample set.   #34 should have scouting reason to out-yardage guys taken variably later in round 2.  Heh heh, a guy valued by Gute above two second round picks should out-yardage most individual second rounders! 
• At age 23, Watson probably should be variably more rookie-ready than many 2nd-round receivers drafted at age 20 or 21.  

So given that around a third of 2nd-rounders are already pretty rookie-productive (≥550 yards), and given the several factors in Watson's favor, I don't think it's naive to project Watson producing somewhere in that upper-third range, if health (his, 12's, and o-line) allows.  

Edited May 27, 2022 by craig

[NFLGURU]

I think Doubs will have more catches than Watson, but Watson could have more yards.

[TheEagle]

2 hours ago, craig said:

Thanks, Eagle.  Yeah, I think that's really helpful context.  That's 5 with >800, 7 more ≥548, plus Adams.  So about 1/3 of the guys around 550 or more.  Thoughts:

• It's the National injury league.  If Rodgers has a season-ending injury, or Watson himself, that might undercut his yards.
• The Packers WR group is poor.  Watson has a pretty wide-open window of opportunity to play a lot of snaps.  Good chance to be one of the higher-rookie-yardage guys.
• Watson will be one of the highest-drafted 2nd-rounder in your sample set.   #34 should have scouting reason to out-yardage guys taken variably later in round 2.  Heh heh, a guy valued by Gute above two second round picks should out-yardage most individual second rounders! 
• At age 23, Watson probably should be variably more rookie-ready than many 2nd-round receivers drafted at age 20 or 21.  

So given that around a third of 2nd-rounders are already pretty rookie-productive (≥550 yards), and given the several factors in Watson's favor, I don't think it's naive to project Watson producing somewhere in that upper-third range, if health (his, 12's, and o-line) allows.  

I think Watson will have more than 600 yards. I just don't think it's reasonable to expect him to get 1000 yards. Or if he doesn't get 800+ yards, he's a bust. It's becoming more common for rookie WRs to do well, but it still generally takes a year or two for WRs to hit their strides--unlike RB.

[VonKarman]

1150 yds and 8 TDs.