Round 2 Pick 34; Christian Watson, WR, NDSU

[craig]

Agree, Eagle, I on your same same page.  1000 is unreasonable and 800+ isn't impossible but is highly improbable.  But somewhere in that 500-800 range, that seems pretty fair.  

As I've belabored before, while yardage volume is obviously influenced by the quality/capacity of the rookie, it's also largely impacted by factors outside his control. 

• Watson doesn't control if/when Cobb, Watkins, or Lazard will get injured. 
• Watson influences but doesn't control whether he's playing 63% or 33% or 18% of the snaps. 
• Watson doesn't control whether MLF is using him often for bubble screens, or whether bubbles go to Amari, Cobb, Lazard, or Watkins. 
• Watson doesn't control whether teams single-cover him fairly often, or play two-high safeties or whatever. 
• On a potential deep-ball play where he's open, Watson doesn't control whether Rodgers overshoots him by 5 yards; or if Runyan gets beat and Rodgers is ducking to survive; or if Rodgers just chooses a quicker shorter throw to Lazard.  

[vegas492]

He's OROTY with 1200 yards.  Guaranteed.

[vegas492]

You really want to get psyched about him?  Read this SI article about him.  

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/like-father-like-son-the-christian-watson-story#gid=ci02a02de490002718&pid=christian-watson-20211023-fb-most-086-2

This is a cut and paste from the article concerning Watson, as told by his father.

“I will tell you – and this is not dad-speak, this is coach-speak – I’m going to tell you right now that I wouldn’t take another receiver over Christian’s level of football intelligence. What Christian did was what he was asked to do at NDSU. They won four national championships when he was there. I don’t understand what they’re looking for in terms of the player. He played within a system and he made some things happen within that system that really hadn’t happened before from the wide receiver position.”

Football IQ is the thing that makes or breaks talented WR's.  If this kid truly has the brain and work ethic.....

[JordanLoveFTW]

 

5 hours ago, craig said:

Thanks, Eagle.  Yeah, I think that's really helpful context.  That's 5 with >800, 7 more ≥548, plus Adams.  So about 1/3 of the guys around 550 or more.  Thoughts:

• It's the National injury league.  If Rodgers has a season-ending injury, or Watson himself, that might undercut his yards.
• The Packers WR group is poor.  Watson has a pretty wide-open window of opportunity to play a lot of snaps.  Good chance to be one of the higher-rookie-yardage guys.
• Watson will be one of the highest-drafted 2nd-rounder in your sample set.   #34 should have scouting reason to out-yardage guys taken variably later in round 2.  Heh heh, a guy valued by Gute above two second round picks should out-yardage most individual second rounders! 
• At age 23, Watson probably should be variably more rookie-ready than many 2nd-round receivers drafted at age 20 or 21.  

So given that around a third of 2nd-rounders are already pretty rookie-productive (≥550 yards), and given the several factors in Watson's favor, I don't think it's naive to project Watson producing somewhere in that upper-third range, if health (his, 12's, and o-line) allows.  

Yep.

 

1. Watson is 23 years old with 4 full seasons of college football and a full redshirt season

2. Watson has a HOF QB throwing him the ball

3. The Packers are a good running team and need vertical threat to stretch the defense. 

4. The Packers have nobody in front of him who demand targets. Just 3, #3 receivers.

 

A lot or things are working in Watsons favor to get quite a few yards this season. It will be disappointing if he’s a first year dud. 

[JordanLoveFTW]

Working against Watson having rookie year production is 

 

1. A QB who leans more heavily than most on chemistry.

2. A complicated offense built around a cerebral veteran QB

3. 3 more experienced players ahead of him. 

If everything goes wrong, there are scenarios where Watson has a poor rookie campaign but has a good NFL career. 
 

More likely though, if he’s going to be a good player, most of the stars align for some early production. 

[TheEagle]

26 minutes ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

 

Yep.

 

1. Watson is 23 years old with 4 full seasons of college football and a full redshirt season

2. Watson has a HOF QB throwing him the ball

3. The Packers are a good running team and need vertical threat to stretch the defense. 

4. The Packers have nobody in front of him who demand targets. Just 3, #3 receivers.

 

A lot or things are working in Watsons favor to get quite a few yards this season. It will be disappointing if he’s a first year dud. 

He literally just turned 23. Javon Walker was 23 1/2 when we drafted him. Jordy was the same age as Watson. James Jones was 3 months younger. Greg Jennings was 3 months younger. Donald Driver was almost 24. Why do you keep bringing up age? He's not that old. It's pretty normal age for an NFL rookie. He played 4 years and reshirted, but he was also a bit younger when he graduated high school.

Edited May 27, 2022 by TheEagle

[JordanLoveFTW]

4 minutes ago, TheEagle said:

He literally just turned 23. Javon Walker was 23 1/2 when we drafted him. Jordy was the same age as Watson. James Jones was 3 months younger. Greg Jennings was 3 months younger. Donald Driver was almost 24. Why do you keep bringing up age? He's not that old. It's pretty normal age for an NFL rookie. He played 4 years and reshirted, but he was also a bit younger when he graduated high school.

Because he’s had 5 years of college football to develop and shouldn’t be this raw untapped gem at this point. He should have developed a lot already.

[MantyWrestler]

8 minutes ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

Because he’s had 5 years of college football to develop and shouldn’t be this raw untapped gem at this point. He should have developed a lot already.

Maybe the coaches as NDSU coached him up as best they could? They didn’t ask him to play like the Packers will. Obviously they see more in him than you do… Sorry but I trust them more than you. 

[squire12]

1 hour ago, MantyWrestler said:

Maybe the coaches as NDSU coached him up as best they could? They didn’t ask him to play like the Packers will. Obviously they see more in him than you do… Sorry but I trust them more than you. 

Watson should have transferred to a school that could better showcase his talents vs sticking with NDSU and racking up wins and titles.  Too unselfish to be good.  

Better to cut the losses now

[Norm]

26 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Watson should have transferred to a school that could better showcase his talents vs sticking with NDSU and racking up wins and titles.  Too unselfish to be good.  

Better to cut the losses now

He can't get over the fact that they didn't completely alter the way they play football to showcase a WR. 

 

[craig]

I didn't take Jordan's "Watson's 23" as a pejorative criticism; more a recognition that Watson might not need max ramp-up time to become NFL useful?  For in all-in season, that would be a good thing.

[Uffdaswede]

8 hours ago, TheEagle said:

I think Watson will have more than 600 yards. I just don't think it's reasonable to expect him to get 1000 yards. Or if he doesn't get 800+ yards, he's a bust. It's becoming more common for rookie WRs to do well, but it still generally takes a year or two for WRs to hit their strides--unlike RB.

I’m guessing MLF is determined to wrest back targeting control from #12. Routes will pressure defenses, creating exploitable opportunities. One play sets up the next. The ball is going to get spread around. The receiving room will make shared success a point of pride  

Rodgers averages about 4,000 yards a year and 20+ receptions a game. #17 is no longer taking 10 of them. I think our offense will be a huge problem for the rest of the league with RBs, TEs, Lazard, Cobb, Watkins and Watson and Doubs and others splitting those receptions. If three of those receivers snag an average of five receptions a game they’ll be well out beyond 800 yards for the season.

[HighCalebR]

13 hours ago, craig said:

I didn't take Jordan's "Watson's 23" as a pejorative criticism; more a recognition that Watson might not need max ramp-up time to become NFL useful?  For in all-in season, that would be a good thing.

Different strokes for different folks. Situations are situational. It depends.

He's yet to peak physically. Hes coming from a smaller school to the League.. Dont be shocked if it takes a second.

Who knows if he'll be ready week 1 (though id bet hes quite limited), week 6, for the playoffs or next year. And if it's next year it's still not a bad pick.

[Lodestar]

On 5/27/2022 at 2:24 PM, vegas492 said:

You really want to get psyched about him?  Read this SI article about him.  

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/like-father-like-son-the-christian-watson-story#gid=ci02a02de490002718&pid=christian-watson-20211023-fb-most-086-2

This is a cut and paste from the article concerning Watson, as told by his father.

“I will tell you – and this is not dad-speak, this is coach-speak – I’m going to tell you right now that I wouldn’t take another receiver over Christian’s level of football intelligence. What Christian did was what he was asked to do at NDSU. They won four national championships when he was there. I don’t understand what they’re looking for in terms of the player. He played within a system and he made some things happen within that system that really hadn’t happened before from the wide receiver position.”

Football IQ is the thing that makes or breaks talented WR's.  If this kid truly has the brain and work ethic.....

I can’t be bothered to read the whole thread but… this is literally his dad hyping him up?

[Refugee]

On 5/27/2022 at 11:24 AM, vegas492 said:

You really want to get psyched about him?  Read this SI article about him.  

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/like-father-like-son-the-christian-watson-story#gid=ci02a02de490002718&pid=christian-watson-20211023-fb-most-086-2

This is a cut and paste from the article concerning Watson, as told by his father.

“I will tell you – and this is not dad-speak, this is coach-speak – I’m going to tell you right now that I wouldn’t take another receiver over Christian’s level of football intelligence. What Christian did was what he was asked to do at NDSU. They won four national championships when he was there. I don’t understand what they’re looking for in terms of the player. He played within a system and he made some things happen within that system that really hadn’t happened before from the wide receiver position.”

Football IQ is the thing that makes or breaks talented WR's.  If this kid truly has the brain and work ethic.....

Darrius Shepard, also from NDSU, basically made the team over Lazard because of how well he picked up the offense and it clearly wasn’t for his physical gifts. Unfortunately, the stage was too big for him but they definitely have a rep for putting out well versed players.

 I think Watson has the body to play at this level, seems he has the smarts to understand the playbook. What will tell the story will be whether or not he has that tenacity to keep at it day in day out to get to the level he will need to achieve in the pros. I’m optimistic about his ability but at this time of year I’m optimistic about every Packer.

Edited May 29, 2022 by Refugee