2023 NFL Draft Talk

[Drained]

58 minutes ago, jch1911 said:

We do have E.J. Perry tho.... they may be holding on to him until (knock on wood) another team has an injury

E.J Perry isn’t going to beat Mills for the third spot. Mills is going to be a backup in this league for a long time. He’s solidified that. He’s going to be a worse Gardner Minshew.

[jch1911]

1 hour ago, Drained said:

E.J Perry isn’t going to beat Mills for the third spot. Mills is going to be a backup in this league for a long time. He’s solidified that. He’s going to be a worse Gardner Minshew.

My point was if they wanted to trade Mills... there would be a 3rd QB on the roster already

Also, he was pretty darn athletic from what I remember .

Much more small physically (who else does that sound like) than Driskel but higher degree of maneuverability & flexibility

[lumberjackchris]

 

[ET80]

Jalen Carter might have the biggest drop of anyone considered a #1 pick I’ve ever seen. The off field stuff was bad enough, but coming in nearly 10 lbs heavier and poorly conditioned? That’s a massive red flag. 

I don’t know if he’s top 10 anymore. Hell, might not even be top 15 anymore.

[lumberjackchris]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Jalen Carter might have the biggest drop of anyone considered a #1 pick I’ve ever seen. The off field stuff was bad enough, but coming in nearly 10 lbs heavier and poorly conditioned? That’s a massive red flag. 

I don’t know if he’s top 10 anymore. Hell, might not even be top 15 anymore.

It’s going to be a long drop

[Blaze]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Jalen Carter might have the biggest drop of anyone considered a #1 pick I’ve ever seen. The off field stuff was bad enough, but coming in nearly 10 lbs heavier and poorly conditioned? That’s a massive red flag. 

I don’t know if he’s top 10 anymore. Hell, might not even be top 15 anymore.

And if he drops to #12, the Texans should run to the podium because a KC type team won't hesitate. Jalen Carter is the last player you want to add to a great team. 

[ET80]

3 minutes ago, lumberjackchris said:

It’s going to be a long drop

I actually remember someone who was getting #1 consideration but then fell due to poor athleticism and off the field issues:

https://www.si.com/.amp/nfl/2015/10/13/2016-nfl-mock-draft-robert-nkemdiche-lions
 

Remember Robert Nkemdiche? He was projected to go 1.1 by a few people - then he jumped out of a 4th floor hotel room to escape arrest, didn’t impress with his pro day and combine performances and was ultimately drafted 29th overall. Nkemdiche played for four teams in the NFL and is currently on the Michigan Panthers USFL roster.

Is Jalen Carter headed towards a similar fate?

[ET80]

8 minutes ago, Blaze said:

And if he drops to #12, the Texans should run to the podium because a KC type team won't hesitate. Jalen Carter is the last player you want to add to a great team. 

I’d actually hold an auction for the pick, see if you can get KC to give up future 1sts to jump up. 

I have a bad feeling about Carter. He feels like the type of person who isn’t going to mature or put in the work needed once you cut him A $12mm check as part of his signing bonus. The reckless driving is what it is, but he has no excuse for showing up out of shape for the biggest job interview of his life…

EDIT: And this was his Pro Day - *HE* scripted the workout, this isn’t the combine where you do what the scouts tell you. If he’s getting gassed on drills he hand picked and knew what was coming? Oh boy, that’s not a good sign to his work ethic or ability to prepare.

[lumberjackchris]

6 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I’d actually hold an auction for the pick, see if you can get KC to give up future 1sts to jump up. 

I have a bad feeling about Carter. He feels like the type of person who isn’t going to mature or put in the work needed once you cut him A $12mm check as part of his signing bonus. The reckless driving is what it is, but he has no excuse for showing up out of shape for the biggest job interview of his life…

EDIT: And this was his Pro Day - *HE* scripted the workout, this isn’t the combine where you do what the scouts tell you. If he’s getting gassed on drills he hand picked and knew what was coming? Oh boy, that’s not a good sign to his work ethic or ability to prepare.

Ya, I’m 100% out of him

[lumberjackchris]

Explosive….

[ET80]

3 minutes ago, lumberjackchris said:

Explosive….

That’s Carter? Ooooh, yeah. That’s not inspiring, and it was an indoor workout - so he can’t blame it on weather conditions. Maybe one day he’ll become a good pro, but it’s going to take a lot of humble pie and mentorship to get him there.

DeMeco talked about SWARM = Special Work-ethic And Relentless Mindset. Everything I’m hearing about Carter since his last down at UGA screams anti-SWARM, if you will. Overweight, not conditioned on the most important day of football he’s ever had to this point, that’s not a good look at all for what amounts to a five year investment.

[lumberjackchris]

Added 9 more LBs since the combine…..

[ET80]

3 hours ago, lumberjackchris said:

Added 9 more LBs since the combine…..

So, what exactly has he been doing since the Combine?

[Texansfan713]

7 hours ago, ET80 said:

So, what exactly has he been doing since the Combine?

clearly eating 🤣

[ET80]

So, I think my expectations at 1.2 are well known - I’ve been wanting Bryce Young since the end of last season, and it looks like dumb luck is going to let that happen. CJ Stroud is also very desirable, so either way the Texans have their QB.

Now - pick 1.12 has gotten pretty murky for me. I was on board with finding a WR to pair up with our QBOTF, but I’m going to be blunt: This WR class is pretty bad overall. Quentin Johnston is smaller than anticipated and can’t catch the football, Jordan Addison is slow and lacks explosion, JSN might be redundant to John Metchie (but I’d consider him) Zay Flowers seems scheme limited, Jalin Hyatt was supposed to be MUCH faster - this class just fell on its face. If you’re investing in a WR, your best bet is to wait until next years’ bumper crop of guys who would push this entire class down to day 2-3 picks. If you’re looking for a WR, wait until the 3rd to do so (Parker Washington feels a bit like Deebo Samuel, IMO).

This being said - what to do with pick 1.12? Well, here’s my list:

1. Trade Down: Honestly, this is a given for pretty much every pick after pick 6 in this draft. From pick 7 onwards, your best best is to move down and get as many picks as you can outside of the 1st round (or extra picks in 2024).

2. Lukas Van Ness, DE/Edge, Iowa: His experience is a bit of a yellow flag, but in his short stint, he showed some big time playmaking ability at both edge and 5 Tech. With experience and refining of his pass rushing tools, he can be a guy who floats across the DL, locating a weakness and exploiting it once he finds it. His age and his frame allows for physical maturation, he’s only going to get bigger and stronger. He has the possibility to become a menace in a few years.

3. Brian Branch, S/CB, Alabama: So, even with the addition of Jimmie Ward, the Texans are thin at S, as well as needing a slot CB. Enter Branch, who can start off as the nickel (both big Nickel S as well as nickel slot CB) and can eventually transition into the guy alongside Jalen Pitre. Branch is your potential Starbacker who will run around with opposing TEs (this is going to become a vital position on defenses as TEs are becoming bigger, stronger, faster and more central to high powered offenses).

4. Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland OR Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia: The position (CB) is more important in this choice, as Derek Stingley Jr needs a running mate on the other side. Christian Gonzalez just placed himself in the top 6-8 (more on him later) and Joey Porter Jr has always been a top 10 guy, so that leaves the athletic wonder (Banks) or the technically sound guy (Ringo). Whatever your flavor is really rules this decision.

5. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas: Now, let’s say the Texans are dead set on finding an offensive impact player with the 12th pick. If you take position value out of the discussion, Bijan Robinson is the best offensive player in this draft (and by a pretty significant margin at that). Now, I’ll be the first to say that drafting a RB with any 1st round pick is a disaster waiting to happen; Robinson is one of the exceptions - he’s a three down slasher who evokes images of Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffery, he’s a guy who can line up in the slot, can dot the I behind a FB, can line up out wide in a no back set, line up in the pistol, in a shotgun read - there isn’t an offense he doesn’t enhance with his complete game. I’d honestly struggle with the pick simply because I don’t draft RBs this high, but Robinson would be one of those rare exceptions where he impacts the game all over the place. If Dameon Pierce is an earthquake, Bijan Robinson is a tornado.

6. Trade UP: Remember when I said more on Christian Gonzalez later? Well, here we are. If Gonzalez gets past Detroit at 6, get on the phone with Las Vegas. I’m pretty sure LV isn’t drafting a CB, but not so sure on Atlanta at 8, so get ahead of them and draft the dynamic boundary CB with upside. He reminds me so much of AJ Bouye, he’s a guy who can probably overtake Stingley Jr as CB1 in a few years. If Detroit DOES take Gonzalez, still give LV the call and see if you can get in position to pick up Joey Porter Jr instead. These two CBs have immediate potential to turn this secondary into a fierce unit.