Weird WR trend - what are your thoughts?

[Matts4313]

KC Chiefs, 12-5, division winner trade Hill to Miami, 9-8, division loser 

Ten Titans, 12-5, division winner trade Brown to Eagles, 9-8, division loser 

GB Packers, 13-4, division winners trade Adams to Raiders, 10-7, division losers 

Dallas Cowboys, 12-5, division winners trade Cooper to Browns, 8-9, division loser 

:and the one exception:

Ravens, 8-9, historically injured but previous division winners trade Brown to the Cards, 11-6 and division loser

 

My conclusion is that there are a bunch of almost division winners that are taking WRs from a bunch of division winners..... and the division winners dont care/arent scared. It just seems weird that 5 teams unladed WRs to 5 other teams that are on the cusp.

What do you think?

Edited May 3, 2022 by Matts4313

[Awsi Dooger]

Not complicated. I've mentioned it many times. The high school ranks are absolutely overloaded with elite wide receivers. It is the highest caliber of talent of any position at any point in time, and with no end in sight. There are far more kids with "make it" grades than the top college conferences can handle.

High school recruiting analysts started emphasizing this about 5 years ago. It was only a matter of time before it funneled upward through the college ranks and impacted the big league and how it operates. There won't be a lull season, given the sheer numbers. Every draft will be overloaded with receivers. You can pick them off well beyond the first round. The sharper teams are aware of the situational landscape and what will be available to them. The dummy teams make shortsighted trades. 

[biggie.]

2 minutes ago, Awsi Dooger said:

Not complicated. I've mentioned it many times. The high school ranks are absolutely overloaded with elite wide receivers. It is the highest caliber of talent of any position at any point in time, and with no end in sight. There are far more kids with "make it" grades than the top college conferences can handle.

High school recruiting analysts started emphasizing this about 5 years ago. It was only a matter of time before it funneled upward through the college ranks and impacted the big league and how it operates. There won't be a lull season, given the sheer numbers. Every draft will be overloaded with receivers. You can pick them off well beyond the first round. The sharper teams are aware of the situational landscape and what will be available to them. The dummy teams make shortsighted trades. 

Tldr version: WRs are easy to replace

[ronjon1990]

I think the good teams understand that 1 WR isn't likely to guarantee success and aren't afraid to let them go, given that we've seen some recent rookies come in and absolutely dominate. Instead of paying for an older guy, get the shiny new model for cheaper. 

As for the almost winners, I think they're smart enough to understand they need an infusion of talent to try and get over the hump, and are willing to shell out a little more for a known commodity and hedge their bet. 

Team by team:

KC- definitely don't care, not scared. Best QB in the game, top TE, great offensive minds, good at finding talent. Prove us wrong mentality. Loaded up on WR in the draft and FA.

Miami- QB on the hot seat but an overall talented roster needing a WR. Well worth it to shoot for the moon and they've been spotty at drafting WRs. 

Titans- not scared, probably care. They were a bit of a shocker and I don't quite get the point other than the money. It's Henry's team though, why pay premium WR money for a supporting player? 

Eagles- same as Miami, almost to a T. 

Green Bay- similar to KC, prove us wrong. Gave up Adams, but saved money and reloaded. They've made #2's and 3's look good. 

Las Vegas: similar to Miami and Philadelphia minus the QB hot seat. 

Dallas- similar to KC and GB. They've cycled WRs and drafted them well. 

Cleveland- similar to Las Vegas. 

Baltimore- no clue what they're doing on offense, but I don't really question their FO. 

Arizona- again, similar to Cleveland and Vegas, with a pinch of Miami. I think they knew a Hopkins suspension was coming. 

The situations are all very similar. The "winning" teams tend to be ones who draft extremely well and are used to winning beyond the WR they let go. 

The others are teams that don't seem to draft particularly well consistently and aren't used to yearly success. 

[Matts4313]

15 minutes ago, Awsi Dooger said:

Not complicated. I've mentioned it many times. The high school ranks are absolutely overloaded with elite wide receivers. It is the highest caliber of talent of any position at any point in time, and with no end in sight. There are far more kids with "make it" grades than the top college conferences can handle.

High school recruiting analysts started emphasizing this about 5 years ago. It was only a matter of time before it funneled upward through the college ranks and impacted the big league and how it operates. There won't be a lull season, given the sheer numbers. Every draft will be overloaded with receivers. You can pick them off well beyond the first round. The sharper teams are aware of the situational landscape and what will be available to them. The dummy teams make shortsighted trades. 

This is my thought as well. But I didnt want to put it in my OP. I wanted to see who all would come to the same conclusion on their own. 

[Ty21]

59 minutes ago, biggie. said:

Tldr version: WRs are easy to replace

Are they though? 
 

-a concerned bears fan 

[SkippyX]

Here is the truth about the Favre / Rodgers Packers and top end WR production.

Every year they won more than 10 games:

• 1995 - Brooks 1497 and 13
• 1996 - Freeman 933 and 9 in 12 games. Brooks got hurt. They had K Jackson (10 TDs) and Chumura at TE and the traded for Andre Rison for the stretch run
• 1997 - Freeman 1243 and 12 Brooks bounced back from injury to 1010 and 7
• 1998 - Freeman 1424 and 14
• 2001 - Bill Schroeder 918 and 9 as Freeman faded to 818 and 6  (had to look up Schroeder, he had 2050 yards and 9 TDs in the 2 years prior)
• 2002 - Driver 1064 and 9 (huge leap in year 4) They also added Terry Glenn as #2
• 2007 - Jennings 920 and 12 in 13 games (huge year 2 performance) Driver had 1048 and 2
• 2009 - Jennings 1113 and 4 and Driver 1061 and 6
• *2010 - 10-6 but SB Win - Jennings 1265 and 12 (303 and 2 in the 4 playoff games)
• 2011 - Nelson 1263 and 15 in a massive year 4 jump. Jennings 949 and 9 in 13 games
• 2014 - Nelson 1519 and 12  Cobb 1287 and 12  (Cobb was atypical since he was very good in year 2 (954 and 8 ) and hurt in year 3)
• 2019 - Adams 997 and 5 in 12 games  (this was the lean on the RBs year where Rodgers *only* had 26 TDs)
• 2020 - Adams 1374 and 18 in 14 games
• 2021 - Adams 1553 and 11

 

They are about as top heavy in WR talent as any team in recent memory. Its a major reason for their QB success and their team success.

• You can hope that Lazard is ready for that huge leap.
• You can hope that Watkins stays healthy for 750 and 5 or something like that.
• You can pretend that Watson will show up from ND State and get past the 2-3 year GB and Rodgers learning curve for rookies.
• You can expect Amari Rodgers to improve and Tonyan to bounce back.
• They could also revert to 2019 form with a strong running game and a good defense to offset a down year at WR

 

What you can't do is pretend this is just how GB rolls.

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by SkippyX

[Matts4313]

9 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

What you can't do is pretend this is just how GB rolls.

Now do the draft picks for each of those. Because what I am seeing is they changed #1 WRs like every 3-4 years with very little drop off. 

In other words, they had no problem the past ~30 years finding replacements. 

[SkippyX]

Dak was an 86.9 rated passer over 23 games from the start of 2017 until the Cooper trade. Dallas was desperate for a jump start to that passing game at the time.

12 of those 23 games were under 200 yards passing.

It was a huge story (the struggles and then the trade and then his incredible performance in those 9 games) Its Dallas so of course it was amplified nationally.

They did not just cycle from Dez to Amari to CeeDee like magic.

[stl4life07]

My theory is centered around three guys. Kupp, Chase, and Kirk. Kupp had the single greatest season ever by a receiver and topped it off with a Superbowl MVP. Up until him it was always “the top receiver for that season never won a Superbowl”. Kupp changed it.

Then Chase had this historic season for a rookie and almost took his team to a Superbowl win despite his OL being historically bad for a season and definitely a playoff run. So he showed you don’t have to have a great OL or even an average OL to still be successful. You just need dynamic receivers who can catch the ball anywhere on the field and score.

Then finally Kirk. He got paid a lot of money by his standards. You knew the top receivers were saying “if he got paid that much then how much we are worth?”. That’s when Adams said “show me the money” along with Hill, AJ Brown, Deebo, and McLaurin. And teams like the Dolphins, Raiders, and Eagles all were eager to pay them bc they know how the landscape has changed. You need a QB you believe in and you need to surround him with weapons. If you do that you can win and compete for Superbowls.

Then teams like the Chiefs and Packers are saying they have top 3 QBs so they don’t have to have the elite of the elite receivers to still win and compete for Superbowls bc they trust their QBs to make it work with almost any receiver they bring in. The Titans felt like they bring in Woods and draft what they feel like is an AJ Brown clown that they will be fine. Plus the offense is built around the running game with Henry and then they drafted Willis who has top 5-10 QB potential if he develops. So yeah I just feel like the change of philosophy on receivers is the reason for all of what we are seeing. 

[Kiltman]

Teams with more mouths to feed can’t give a star wideout the extra slice or two they want now thanks to the Kirk deal bumping things up early seems to be the simple thing.

Teams in that 10-24 draft range make the most sense to make a move like that because 

a) they have later 1sts that are in more of a sweet spot value wise.
b) they are closer to being a 25-32, usually a big move can get them there.

3 of them were because they were Star wideouts… they and the teams couldn’t make it work. (Hill, Adams, AJ)… this is the trend, not so much the others I think.

Cooper was too overpriced but was on a deal and needed to be moved to help a cap situation, which is why the compensation is so different than all the others

 Hollywood was an ok player that the Ravens got an offer they couldn’t refuse on. Ravens played his trade demand well/secret and they got great value from probably the one team that would give it.

 

the Hunt/Adams/Brown trend is potentially adding Deebo and DK, if not this year than next year. Terry might force his way out too.

 

I don’t think a lot of this is new, it’s just exacerbated by the Star wideouts cap percentage being off by going up a year before it should’ve (big cap increase next year) and there being way more wideouts in the good and up tiers.This obviously thanks to the prevalence of 7on7s, Spread offense, etc etc.

I do thinks it’s interesting that players are essentially poison pilling their current teams when the number is too low. Like there was a report that AJ Brown wanted 80m guaranteed from the titans, why’d that drop 25-30m in Philly? This was around the same reports that said Tennessee wanted pay him barely more than Kirk.

It’ll flatten out with the increased revenue. The real bad precedent for teams was the Watson deal. That’s about to handicap teams with way more dead money when guys don’t work out. Gonna see way more mid level QBs get the Washington Kirk Cousins treatment. Hurts and Tua seemed prime for that.

[Matts4313]

11 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

Dak was an 86.9 rated passer over 23 games from the start of 2017 until the Cooper trade. Dallas was desperate for a jump start to that passing game at the time.

lol. You are so freaking ______ when it comes to Dak and the Cowboys. From mid 2017 until bye week 2018, we were missing half our OL, went through  **4** OL coaches, and Dez/Witten were both injured. 

 

Now do 2016 - 1st half of 2017. Whats his rating then? Guessing somewhere in the 105 range and top of the league. Why? Because his OL and WRs were stable and playing. 

 

You will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, have an educated opinion on Dak. You refuse to understand context. Like the pressure rate on Dak being sub 5% in the good parts, and over 10% (near worst in the NFL) in the bad parts. 

Im sure getting 8 sacks in one game wasnt a factor, right? 

[SkippyX]

38 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Now do the draft picks for each of those. Because what I am seeing is they changed #1 WRs like every 3-4 years with very little drop off. 

In other words, they had no problem the past ~30 years finding replacements. 

So you are saying Lazard is the guy?

• Sharpe was 7th overall to get them rolling.
• Brooks was a 3rd round pick
• Freeman a 3rd
• They missed on Mayes in the 2nd
• Ferguson was an underwhelming 2nd round pick (not terrible)
• Walker was actually a good pick in round 1 (20th) in 2002. He had 716 and 9 in year 2 and 1382 and 12 in year 3 then he got hurt and they let him go.
• Driver was the fluke in round 7
• Jennings was a 2nd round pick
• Jones a 3rd
• Nelson a 2nd
• Cobb a 2nd
• Adams a 2nd

 

That's a massive and continuous expenditure of draft capital to feed and maintain the pipeline. (this is clear and obvious)

• They busted on Ty Montgomery in round 3 in 2015 and turned off the pipeline. No top 3 round WRs for 5 years.
• MVS and ESB were round 5 and 6 guys in 2018 who both overachieved to different levels.
• Lazard was a 2018 UDFA hit.
• They did not draft any WR in 2019 or 2020 (they are now feeling that hole where usually their year 2 or 3 guys could start to step up)

They turned it back on the last 2 years for Amari Rodgers (3rd) and Watson (2nd)

 

They still need Lazard to be Julian Edelman or Watkins to rise from the dead or Watson to be the first GB WR to star as a rookie since (does 791 and 1 count for Sharpe?)

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by SkippyX

[SkippyX]

17 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

lol. You are so freaking ______ when it comes to Dak and the Cowboys. From mid 2017 until bye week 2018, we were missing half our OL, went through  **4** OL coaches, and Dez/Witten were both injured. 

 

Now do 2016 - 1st half of 2017. Whats his rating then? Guessing somewhere in the 105 range and top of the league. Why? Because his OL and WRs were stable and playing. 

 

You will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, have an educated opinion on Dak. You refuse to understand context. Like the pressure rate on Dak being sub 5% in the good parts, and over 10% (near worst in the NFL) in the bad parts. 

Im sure getting 8 sacks in one game wasnt a factor, right? 

You are so insanely biased on all things Dak

ESPN saw it

NFLN saw it

Jerry saw it

Steven saw it

The Cowboys coverage universe saw it.

Diehard fans saw it

Casual fans saw it

So Jerry acted and traded a 1st round pick in-season for Cooper.

3-4 Dallas went 7-2 the rest of the way and even won a playoff game. Cooper led the team in yards and TDs in only 9 games played.

This included an OT win vs 9-7 Philly which gave the division to Dallas.

Cooper had 217 yards and 3 TDs in that game, including the OT winner.

 

This would be like a Patriots fan saying Welker and Moss were great in 2007 but it was really the O-line improvement that did the trick. 👀

its a pathetic argument.

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by SkippyX

[Forge]

Its teams ostensibly just triaging their roster and salary cap construction and is dependent on several factors.