Week 2 GDT: Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I don’t quite understand why the odds makers and some here are taking the Niners so lightly. This is a team was in the NFCCG last year, after convincing road wins in both Dallas and Green Bay and have returned largely the same roster. With Jimmy G back, they have a steady hand at the wheel on offense and it appears Kittle will be back for this week. 

Even with us at home I’d put the line SF -5.5, at a minimum. We lost to a terrible Seattle team and just barely squeaked by at home against Houston, who is even worse. This game could very well be the third Sunday night clunker of the season, NBC execs can’t be pleased. 

Keep in mind Vegas doesn’t give away $.  
 

Our ILB problems would be massive against a running QB.   Going back to JimmyG helps them have more stability but actually mitigates our biggest weakness on D.   They also have massive issues in pass pro. That’s a big advantage for us.   No Eli Mitchell means their run game is more Deebo and inexperienced guys.  And no RPO.  That’s another advantage as it’s more predictable to defend against.   Keep in mind Lance led the first 2 drives that scored the first 14 pts in the first 10 mins.    They scored 13 pts the rest of the way.   
 

On the other side of the ball - if we had Jeudy it would help so much they don’t have anyone who can cover him.  They can also bracket Sutton with no Jeudy.  It’s massive if he can play.  Even if it’s just a decoy role.  
 

But all of that won’t matter if Hackett is as bad as he was the last 2 weeks.   But from Vegas perspective I imagine that’s why it’s a pick ‘em.   A change from -2.5 to pick ‘em is far more significant than going from -12 to -8 fwiw.   Take it FWIW.  

Edited September 19, 2022 by Broncofan

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

I'd be VERY suspicious the team is masking the AC injury as a rib injury.   Shoulder doesn't go limp like that after being driven to the ground.  But with AC injuries it's about pain tolerance.    And yes, in the milder forms, you can play the week after (but can miss up to 2-3 weeks too).   Fingers crossed.

Jeudy & Surtain back, we have a real shot vs. SF.....if not for the coaching.   We went from a 2.5 pt favorite to pick 'em, and Vegas doesn't change the line that much for non-QB players.  It's ALL because they don't like what they are seeing from Hackett.  Hard to blame them.

 

it takes a lot of money bet on the Broncos to move the line that much.

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

it takes a lot of money bet on the Broncos to move the line that much.

Most books aren't even taking action at this point - and the ones that do have very small limits on what can be bet before all games are finished.   They test the opening line to invite action, but don't let big stakes come in this early in case there's a huge discrepancy in the opening line.    So it's not a money-based move on what's happened, in this case the books re-set the line to prevent a massive tilt in SF dog money.    Can't really say anyone should blame them.

I imagine the $ will be heavily on SF early on, and the line's going to move more (but not 2.5 pts).   Unless it's a QB related absence, though, or Aaron-Donald level player, we'll see the line shift by 0.5 pts at a time.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Broncofan

[paul-mac]

5 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

it takes a lot of money bet on the Broncos to move the line that much.

Money on the Niners. We’ve gone from being a favourite to pick’em.

 

From my limited experience of Vegas, if they say the home team is a 2.5 point favourite then that roughly means that Vegas thinks the Broncos and 49ers are equally matched teams (because the home advantage is 2-3 points). The fact it’s now pick’em means that they think the Niners are a better team (or that money is coming in on the Niners) 

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, paul-mac said:

Money on the Niners. We’ve gone from being a favourite to pick’em.

 

From my limited experience of Vegas, if they say the home team is a 2.5 point favourite then that roughly means that Vegas thinks the Broncos and 49ers are equally matched teams (because the home advantage is 2-3 points). The fact it’s now pick’em means that they think the Niners are a better team (or that money is coming in on the Niners) 

Yup, that's correct.  Just to be clear though, these openers are set by Vegas books, and any adjustment now is based on their evaluation, not as much $$ moving the line (which we see closer to game day and on game day).  This is all based on their evaluation of the game probs.  And frankly, from what they saw yesterday with Hackett's game management, it's not hard to see why.

[bMiller031]

32 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Most books aren't even taking action at this point - and the ones that do have very small limits on what can be bet before all games are finished.   They test the opening line to invite action, but don't let big stakes come in this early in case there's a huge discrepancy in the opening line.    So it's not a money-based move on what's happened, in this case the books re-set the line to prevent a massive tilt in SF dog money.    Can't really say anyone should blame them.

I imagine the $ will be heavily on SF early on, and the line's going to move more (but not 2.5 pts).   Unless it's a QB related absence, though, or Aaron-Donald level player, we'll see the line shift by 0.5 pts at a time.

Lance’s injury and Jimmy G starting probably helped move the line towards SF too

[paul-mac]

After the initial frustrations of yesterday, I’m starting to feel more optimistic.

 

 

Honestly, I’d rather be in a position where we are moving the ball well and playing stingy defense (we’ve outgained both opponents by > 100 yards and lead the NFL in yards per drive) and just be let down by sloppy mistakes than vice versa. We are clearly a very talented team, and we have some very identifiable crap that needs to be cut, and fast, but the potential is absolutely there. 
 

We are technically on a win streak now so I’ll make the GDT again this week. 

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

After the initial frustrations of yesterday, I’m starting to feel more optimistic.

 

 

Honestly, I’d rather be in a position where we are moving the ball well and playing stingy defense (we’ve outgained both opponents by > 100 yards and lead the NFL in yards per drive) and just be let down by sloppy mistakes than vice versa. We are clearly a very talented team, and we have some very identifiable crap that needs to be cut, and fast, but the potential is absolutely there. 
 

We are technically on a win streak now so I’ll make the GDT again this week. 

You are definitely up again.

Honestly, today has had nothing but relief.

Jeudy could be back.   Sounds like PS2 is very likely to return.  Jeudy's return would be fantastic, it's so obvious watching tape that Russ has the same type of success with him & Sutton - so far, we haven't had the 3rd option show up yet.   I do think Hinton is probably ready to succeed now more than the other guys, but I get the 3rd guy is trying to take the top off and stretch the D (Jeudy can do that too, but then you're not leveraging his ability to separate in the short-intermediate area).   

If Jeudy comes back, then we have more options to put in as the 3rd guy (Montrell Washington / Tyrie Cleveland can be a burner, Hinton as another possession-middle guy).    Of course, once Hamler's back, then we have the ideal trio that threatens all 3 levels of the field consistently.   

 

 

 

Edited September 19, 2022 by Broncofan

[AKRNA]

50 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

Money on the Niners. We’ve gone from being a favourite to pick’em.

 

From my limited experience of Vegas, if they say the home team is a 2.5 point favourite then that roughly means that Vegas thinks the Broncos and 49ers are equally matched teams (because the home advantage is 2-3 points). The fact it’s now pick’em means that they think the Niners are a better team (or that money is coming in on the Niners) 

Sorry, had a brain fart, but yeah. Somebody hit the books pretty fast with money on the niners. 

So, I lived in Nevada for about 10 years. Actually spent a lot of time in the Sports Books. They're wild on Sundays. Had a pretty good friend that worked in the book at Bally's. For the most part the lines aren't set based on who they think should win. They're based on trying to get the same amount bet on both sides of the game. They've got to be pretty good because their are some good pro's out there that will jump on their mistakes.

Looks to me like that just happened. 

[Broncofan]

 

Saying all the right things about needing to be better. And quicker.   But no extra help.  
 

Glad he’s acknowledging it right away unlike last week where it took longer to come out and say the obvious.  But talk is cheap.   He certainly didn’t earn any benefit of the doubt after yesterday. 

Edited September 19, 2022 by Broncofan

[BroncoBruin]

I remember being excited when he talked about having a game day specialist for all these situations. Was that just a lie or did they bring in some glorified intern to actually do nothing? 

[BroncoBruin]

Never seen a team get more screwed by fumble luck. But this is an encouraging improvement from Fangio.

 

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

41 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

I remember being excited when he talked about having a game day specialist for all these situations. Was that just a lie or did they bring in some glorified intern to actually do nothing? 

I mean, that’s one more potential voice in the headset so to speak. I think right now the process needs to be simplified.

 

Clear job expectations.
 

I.g. Your job is to have all the data in your head for when to go for it on what down and distances and yard lines so that if we come up on that situation I (the HC) can ask for quick input before I make the decision. Right now there is too much discussion and not enough decision making. 

[AKRNA]

6 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I mean, that’s one more potential voice in the headset so to speak. I think right now the process needs to be simplified.

 

Clear job expectations.
 

I.g. Your job is to have all the data in your head for when to go for it on what down and distances and yard lines so that if we come up on that situation I (the HC) can ask for quick input before I make the decision. Right now there is too much discussion and not enough decision making. 

When they floated the idea that was exactly how it was portrayed. I hire Bob, to make the call. Bob studies the opposition all week. On game day he is constantly aware of all strategic data, time, down and distance, score etc...........

On 3rd down he already has the answer in his head as to what to do if 3rd down fails. So, the play fails, Hackett turns to Bob, Bob says"punt" and the punting unit runs out.

Doesn't seem to be working that way does it?  Maybe Hackett doesn't trust Bob. 

[broncosfan_101]

11 hours ago, broncos67 said:

As for injuries, I am not going to blame that on training camp, especially given the nature of what the injuries appear to be. Can't really do much about a shoulder injury. That said, we are rapidly losing contributors. Jeudy. Hamler, Patrick, PS2, Simmons, Meinerz...that's not good at all. Hopefully we're looking for some WR depth because the murderers row of Sutton + a bunch of guys is not going to cut it.

Seth Williams should be back in the building, like, tonight.