Joe Barry'd again

[Jaire_Island]

Joe Barry is a good D coordinator to win in this league.

I think he is employing a very simple scheme where players are coming in and performing right away. Yes there are 3-4 WTF calls every game, but it’s the same for every D coordinator and he is getting it done week after week. 

He is kind of coordinator you can win in this league, by loading O since his ceiling is same even if you give pro bowlers or street free agents(except pass rushers).

Sorry he is not going anywhere and load O. 

[incognito_man]

13 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

I'm explaining why our ranking rose from week 8 on. I don't care about every other team. And every other team didn't play a top 10 DVOA offense with their PS QB either so miss me with that bull****.

Your first two sentences are incompatible. DVOA necessitates that you "care" about every other team because that's the entire point of it. It normalizes the results from every play in the entire league.

You are correct that every other team didn't play a top 10 DVOA offense with their PS QB. That is an unaccounted for, and meaningful outlier for (1/12 = 8.3%) of the snaps registered for GBs defense. However, the 'top 10' designation is not particularly meaningful. The way DVOA works, gaining a (25->10%) advantage is equivalent to gaining a (10->-5%) advantage. So every team that has faced a back-up QB (regardless of where the team is on a ranked-list) will have 'benefited' the same net amount (differing, of course, by the level of drop-off between starter and back-up, however).

Noting this shortcoming is a relevant point, of course, and its impact should be considered - but it would be a deep-dive exercise to make sure you then account equally for all other teams who have benefited significantly by outliers of any type that can affect a game in a rare, but significant way.

[incognito_man]

23 minutes ago, mikebpackfan said:

Of course I have no clue.  I’d rather spend my time rewatching the game than digging into the details of how DVOA is created.  Here’s what I know:  it’s some rating system that (according to you as my only source) takes a ****load of data in and spits out a ranking of a team based on that.  In order to do so, some formula must be applied.  That formula seems unlikely to be infalliable. Especially since it would have incorrectly predicted the Packer game the last three weeks. 

"of course I have no clue"

...

"but here's my strong opinion about it, anyway"

 

hard pass

[Jaire_Island]

I have been following GB from 2012. Even missing 1-2 key guys used to break our defense alot. Says signal caller is important blah blah..

There was lot of discussion that then D scheme is complex and not easy to pick up right away. 

Joe Barry restricted 3 good Offenses below 20 with entire secondary not playing.  What else he needs to prove?

[mikebpackfan]

Just now, incognito_man said:

"of course I have no clue"

...

"but here's my strong opinion about it, anyway"

 

hard pass

I do not have a hard opinion on it.  I hope that is a good measure. 
 

But it doesn’t stop that fact that just “accounting for more data” means it correctly applies that data to the end result.  Which is the only argument you make for it. 

[incognito_man]

11 minutes ago, Jaire_Island said:

Joe Barry is a good D coordinator to win in this league.

I think he is employing a very simple scheme where players are coming in and performing right away. Yes there are 3-4 WTF calls every game, but it’s the same for every D coordinator and he is getting it done week after week. 

He is kind of coordinator you can win in this league, by loading O since his ceiling is same even if you give pro bowlers or street free agents(except pass rushers).

Sorry he is not going anywhere and load O. 

People are right to acknowledge the impact good offense has for this defense. I think @Brit Pack mentioned this. A defense can (and arguably, should) be designed around a complementary offense. If you think you have the horses on offense to score quickly and often - pairing that with a more paced defense (who have the personnel to win big on key downs and 1-on-1s) can make sense. In that case, some efficiency stats may look bad, because the defensive wins are more rare, but more impactful as well.

There's also a legitimate argument about the sustainability of that. It may or may not be a meaningful trait for a good/great defense. I suspect that there have been historically successful defenses that operated in a similar way.

[incognito_man]

2 minutes ago, mikebpackfan said:

I do not have a hard opinion on it.  I hope that is a good measure. 
 

But it doesn’t stop that fact that just “accounting for more data” means it correctly applies that data to the end result.  Which is the only argument you make for it. 

THE ULTRA-SHORT VERSION

DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

THE SHORT VERSION

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10% better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20% worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. Every year is normalized so the average for that year is 0%. For more detail, read below.

DVOA EXPLAINED

One running back runs for three yards. Another running back runs for three yards. Which is the better run?

Several factors can differentiate one three-yard run from another. What is the down and distance? Is it third-and-2, or second-and-15? Where on the field is the ball? Does the player get only three yards because he hits the goal line and scores? Is the player’s team up by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter and thus running out the clock, or down by two touchdowns and thus facing a defense that is playing purely against the pass? Is the running back playing against the porous defense of the Bears, or the stalwart defense of the 49ers?

Conventional NFL statistics value plays based solely on their net yardage. The NFL determines the best players by adding up all their yards no matter what situations they came in or how many plays it took to get them. Now, why would they do that? Football has one objective—to get to the end zone—and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and achieving first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player’s value or a team’s performance. All the yards in the world won’t help a team win if they all come in six-yard chunks on third-and-10.

The popularity of fantasy football only exacerbates the problem. Fans have gotten used to judging players based on how much they help fantasy teams win and lose, not how much they help real teams win and lose. Typical fantasy scoring further skews things by counting the yard between the one and the goal line as 61 times more important than all the other yards on the field (each yard worth 0.1 points, a touchdown worth 6.0). Let’s say Justin Jefferson catches a pass on third-and-15 and goes 50 yards but gets tackled two yards from the goal line, and then Alexander Mattison takes the ball on first-and-goal from the two-yard line and plunges in for the score. Has Mattison done something special? Not really. When an offense gets the ball on first-and-goal at the two-yard line, they are going to score a touchdown five out of six times. Mattison is getting credit for the work done by the passing game.

Doing a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games is the goal of DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season, assigning each play a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down, based on work done by Pete Palmer, Bob Carroll, and John Thorn in their seminal book, The Hidden Game of Football. On first down, a play is considered a success if it gains 45% of needed yards; on second down, a play needs to gain 60% of needed yards; on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success.

We then expand upon that basic idea with a more complicated system of “success points,” improved over the past 20 years with a lot of mathematics and a bit of trial and error. A successful play is worth one point, an unsuccessful play zero points with fractional points in between (for example, eight yards on third-and-10 is worth 0.54 “success points”). Extra points are awarded for big plays, gradually increasing to three points for 10 yards (assuming those yards result in a first down), four points for 20 yards, and five points for 40 yards or more. Losing three or more yards is -1 point. Interceptions average -4.5 points, with an adjustment for the length of the pass and the location of the interception (since an interception tipped at the line is more likely to produce a long return than an interception on a 40-yard pass). A fumble is worth anywhere from -1.3 to -3.0 points depending on how often a fumble in that situation is lost to the defense—no matter who actually recovers the fumble. There is a bonus given for a touchdown that acknowledges that the goal line is significantly more difficult to cross than the previous 99 yards (although this bonus is nowhere near as large as the one used in fantasy football).

Every single play run in the NFL gets a “success value” based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and the team’s lead or deficit in the game score. Teams are always compared to the overall offensive average, as the team made its own choice whether to pass or rush. When it comes to individual players, however, rushing plays are compared to other rushing plays, passing plays to other passing plays, tight ends to tight ends, wideouts to wideouts, and so on.

Going back to our example of the three-yard rush, if Player A gains three yards under a set of circumstances in which the average NFL running back gains only one yard, then Player A has a certain amount of value above others at his position. Likewise, if Player B gains three yards on a play on which, under similar circumstances, an average NFL back gains four yards, that Player B has negative value relative to others at his position. Once we make all our adjustments, we can evaluate the difference between this player’s rate of success and the expected success rate of an average running back in the same situation (or between the opposing defense and the average defense in the same situation, etc.). Add up every play by a certain team or player, divide by the total of the various baselines for success in all those situations, and you get VOA, or Value Over Average.

Of course, the biggest variable in football is the fact that each team plays a different schedule against teams of disparate quality. By adjusting each play based on the opposing defense’s average success in stopping that type of play over the course of a season, we get DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Rushing and passing plays are adjusted based on down and location on the field; passing plays are also adjusted based on how the defense performs against passes to running backs, tight ends, or wide receivers. Defenses are adjusted based on the average success of the offenses they are facing. (Yes, technically the defensive stats are “offense-adjusted.” If it seems weird, think of the “D” in “DVOA” as standing for “opponent-Dependent” or something.)

The biggest advantage of DVOA is the ability to break teams and players down to find strengths and weaknesses in a variety of situations. DVOA can be separated not only by player, but also by down, or by week, or by distance needed for a first down. This can give us a better idea of not just which team is better, but why, and what a team has to do in order to improve itself in the future. You will find DVOA used in this book in a lot of different ways—because it takes every single play into account, it can be used to measure a player or a team’s performance in any situation. All Pittsburgh third downs can be compared to how an average team does on third down. Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett can each be compared to how an average quarterback performs in the red zone, or with a lead, or in the second half of the game.

Since DVOA compares each play only to plays with similar circumstances, it gives a more accurate picture of how much better a team really is compared to the league as a whole. The list of top DVOA offenses on third down, for example, is more accurate than the conventional NFL conversion statistic because it takes into account that converting third-and-long is more difficult than converting third-and-short, and that a turnover is worse than an incomplete pass because it eliminates the opportunity to move the other team back with a punt on fourth down.

One of the hardest parts of understanding a new statistic is interpreting its scale, or what numbers represent good performance or bad performance. We’ve made that easy with DVOA. For each season, ratings are normalized so that 0% represents league average. A positive DVOA represents a situation that favors the offense, while a negative DVOA represents a situation that favors the defense. This is why the best offenses have positive DVOA ratings (in 2022, Kansas City led the NFL at 25.2%) and the best defenses have negative DVOA ratings (with San Francisco on top in 2022 at -14.1%).

The scale of offensive ratings is wider than the scale of defensive ratings. In most years, the best and worst offenses tend to rate around +/- 30%, while the best and worst defenses tend to rate around +/- 20%. For starting players, the scale tends to reach roughly +/- 40% for passing and receiving, and +/- 30% for rushing. As you might imagine, some players with fewer attempts will surpass both extremes.

Team DVOA totals combine offense and defense by subtracting the latter from the former because the better defenses will have negative DVOA ratings. (Special teams performance is also added, as described later in this section.) Certain plays are counted in DVOA for offense and not for defense, leading to separate baselines on each side of the ball. In addition, although the league ratings for offense and defense are always 0%, the league averages for passing and rushing separately are not 0%. Because passing is more efficient than rushing, the average for team passing is always positive and the average for team rushing is always negative. However, ratings for individual players only compare passes to other passes and runs to other runs, so the league average for individual passing is 0%, as are the league averages for rushing and the three separate league averages for receiving by wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs.

Some other important notes about team DVOA:

• Scrambles count in team DVOA as passing plays instead of rushing plays. (In individual stats, they still count as runs.)
• Only four penalties are included in DVOA. Two penalties count as pass plays on both sides of the ball: intentional grounding and defensive pass interference. The other two penalties are included for offense only: false starts and delay of game. Because the inclusion of these penalties means a group of negative plays that don't count as either passes or runs, the league averages for pass offense and run offense are higher than the league averages for pass defense and run defense.
• Aborted plays (bad snaps, bad handoffs, and incomplete backwards lateral passes) are only penalized on offense, not rewarded on defense. As of the new DVOA v8.0 in September 2023, these plays count as their own category, not as passes or rushes, in team DVOA.
• Adjustments for playing from behind or with a lead in the fourth quarter are different for offense and defense, as are adjustments for the final two minutes of the first half when the offense is not near field goal range.
• Offense gets a slight penalty and defense gets a slight bonus for games indoors. Regular domes and retractable-roof domes are counted differently.

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/FTN/103241/dvoa-explainer#:~:text=DVOA measures a team's efficiency,based on situation and opponent.

[Old Guy]

@incognito_man thanks for posting that. I was always too lazy to look it up and wondered how it was measured and worked. 

[Mr. Fussnputz]

DVO Blah blah blah. Can't we just enjoy football without analyzing all the fun out of it?

[incognito_man]

Just now, Mr. Fussnputz said:

DVO Blah blah blah. Can't we just enjoy football without analyzing all the fun out of it?

Understanding enhances the experience in my experience 

[Packer_ESP]

6 hours ago, Norm said:

DVDA

Ah, a fellow connoisseur 

[Billy86]

@beekay414 @incognito_man and @Brit Pack got me interested and it's a slow morning in work, so I looked it up:

Points Per Drive (2023) going into week 14:

Rk	Tm	G	Drives	PA	PPDrive
1	Baltimore Ravens	12	127	187	1.47
2	San Francisco 49ers	12	119	189	1.59
3	Cleveland Browns	12	142	245	1.73
4	Kansas City Chiefs	12	114	208	1.82
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	12	125	229	1.83
6	Atlanta Falcons	12	127	240	1.89
7	Buffalo Bills	12	120	227	1.89
8	New York Jets	12	132	251	1.90
9	Dallas Cowboys	12	113	220	1.95
10	New Orleans Saints	12	130	255	1.96
11	Houston Texans	12	124	249	2.01
12	New England Patriots	12	126	254	2.02
13	Jacksonville Jaguars	12	128	259	2.02
14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12	119	245	2.06
15	Green Bay Packers	12	117	243	2.08
16	Minnesota Vikings	12	116	242	2.09
	Avg Team		123.5	260.3	2.11
17	Tennessee Titans	12	119	255	2.14
18	Miami Dolphins	12	124	266	2.15
19	Los Angeles Chargers	12	120	258	2.15
20	Los Angeles Rams	12	117	253	2.16
21	New York Giants	12	133	292	2.20
22	Indianapolis Colts	12	133	296	2.23
23	Las Vegas Raiders	12	115	256	2.23
24	Cincinnati Bengals	12	121	275	2.27
25	Detroit Lions	12	123	286	2.33
26	Seattle Seahawks	12	121	290	2.40
27	Philadelphia Eagles	12	118	288	2.44
28	Denver Broncos	12	120	302	2.52
29	Arizona Cardinals	13	131	331	2.53
30	Chicago Bears	12	117	296	2.53
31	Carolina Panthers	12	119	313	2.63
32	Washington Commanders	13	142	395	2.78

 

Points are from profootballreference.com , number of drives are from stathead.com , Bengals and Jaguars had to be updated manually using cbssports.com's gametracker, though they should be up to date on PFR & Stathead in the next few hours.

Using this metric, our defense is 15th, a tiny shade above average.

Considering what we have available, I have to consider that a pretty decent performance. For star players, we have Kenny though he has not been quite the same in the last two years or so (very fair if you want to put that on Barry). We have Rashan, though he spent close to half the season on a snap count coming back from a serious injury. We Jaire, though he has only played about 40% of snaps due to injuries. We also have Preston, but he is more of a very good veteran than a true 'star' player. We also had Rasul, but he got traded off a while back.

Beyond that, we have guys like Keisean Nixon, Rudy Ford, Jonathon Owens and Carrington Ballentine among our leading defenders for snaps taken - these are guys that weren't able to even get signed elsewhere and/or were getting cut from terrible teams. We have maybe the youngest DL and possibly even front seven in the entire league, with rookies and second years guys largely from the later rounds (Valentine, Brooks, Wooden, AJJr, Valentine, Kinglsey) to go with them, and the earlier round guys while I am excited for their futures are still not quite there yet (Quay, Wyatt, LVN, supplemented by day three picks still on their rookie deals and more bargain basement signings (McDuffie, Slaton, Wilson, Hollins).

So using the metric of yards per drive, especially after factoring in available talent and injuries, Barry has objectively been better than average and probably by a reasonable difference.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Billy86

[Brit Pack]

25 minutes ago, Billy86 said:

@beekay414 @incognito_man and @Brit Pack got me interested and it's a slow morning in work, so I looked it up:

Points Per Drive (2023) going into week 14:

Rk	Tm	G	Drives	PA	PPDrive
1	Baltimore Ravens	12	127	187	1.47
2	San Francisco 49ers	12	119	189	1.59
3	Cleveland Browns	12	142	245	1.73
4	Kansas City Chiefs	12	114	208	1.82
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	12	125	229	1.83
6	Atlanta Falcons	12	127	240	1.89
7	Buffalo Bills	12	120	227	1.89
8	New York Jets	12	132	251	1.90
9	Dallas Cowboys	12	113	220	1.95
10	New Orleans Saints	12	130	255	1.96
11	Houston Texans	12	124	249	2.01
12	New England Patriots	12	126	254	2.02
13	Jacksonville Jaguars	12	128	259	2.02
14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12	119	245	2.06
15	Green Bay Packers	12	117	243	2.08
16	Minnesota Vikings	12	116	242	2.09
	Avg Team		123.5	260.3	2.11
17	Tennessee Titans	12	119	255	2.14
18	Miami Dolphins	12	124	266	2.15
19	Los Angeles Chargers	12	120	258	2.15
20	Los Angeles Rams	12	117	253	2.16
21	New York Giants	12	133	292	2.20
22	Indianapolis Colts	12	133	296	2.23
23	Las Vegas Raiders	12	115	256	2.23
24	Cincinnati Bengals	12	121	275	2.27
25	Detroit Lions	12	123	286	2.33
26	Seattle Seahawks	12	121	290	2.40
27	Philadelphia Eagles	12	118	288	2.44
28	Denver Broncos	12	120	302	2.52
29	Arizona Cardinals	13	131	331	2.53
30	Chicago Bears	12	117	296	2.53
31	Carolina Panthers	12	119	313	2.63
32	Washington Commanders	13	142	395	2.78

 

Points are from profootballreference.com , number of drives are from stathead.com , Bengals and Jaguars had to be updated manually using cbssports.com's gametracker, though they should be up to date on PFR & Stathead in the next few hours.

Using this metric, our defense is 15th, a tiny shade above average.

Considering what we have available, I have to consider that a pretty decent performance. For star players, we have Kenny though he has not been quite the same in the last two years or so (very fair if you want to put that on Barry). We have Rashan, though he spent close to half the season on a snap count coming back from a serious injury. We Jaire, though he has only played about 40% of snaps due to injuries. We also have Preston, but he is more of a very good veteran than a true 'star' player. We also had Rasul, but he got traded off a while back.

Beyond that, we have guys like Keisean Nixon, Rudy Ford, Jonathon Owens and Carrington Ballentine among our leading defenders for snaps taken - these are guys that weren't able to even get signed elsewhere and/or were getting cut from terrible teams. We have maybe the youngest DL and possibly even front seven in the entire league, with rookies and second years guys largely from the later rounds (Valentine, Brooks, Wooden, AJJr, Valentine, Kinglsey) to go with them, and the earlier round guys while I am excited for their futures are still not quite there yet (Quay, Wyatt, LVN, supplemented by day three picks still on their rookie deals and more bargain basement signings (McDuffie, Slaton, Wilson, Hollins).

So using the metric of yards per drive, especially after factoring in available talent and injuries, Barry has objectively been better than average and probably by a reasonable difference.

The thing I find with this is the statistical difference between the 15th (Green Bay) and the 5th (Pittsburgh) is 0.25 points per drive. Taking on average 10 drives a game, we are looking at 2.5 points per game difference, between the middle of the pack and a top team. While 2.5 points can 110% affect the outcome of a game I don't see it as a significant enough margin between the two positions to say one is a terrible defence (as is being pitched here about Green Bay) and the other is a great one.

Most of the teams in the middle, as would be expected, are quite bunched, while the statistical difference between the top and the bottom is something I would consider as significant. It is 1.3 points per drive and that is almost two TDs per game. There I would say there is a cause for concern, and hence let's get rid of Barry.  

It's the same with yards per play (a much better metric than YPC), Green Bay sits at joint 13 with the Seahawks and the Rams at 5.2. To be top 5, where San Fran sits, the difference is 0.4 yards per play, or assuming about 60 plays per game 24 yards. Again I don't see the statistical significance with the data here. 

I feel that arguing over these statistical positions is a little silly really. The fact is that in the NFL the majority of teams are very close to each other and the difference between from 6th to 25th is minute really, hence the fine margins of a game, a PI not called, a penalty at the wrong time, a dropped pass etc.

Is Green Bay defence good enough to be in games and win it? Yup. Would you say that is the same for most other teams? Yup. Are we an elite defence? Nope. Would switching out Barry for any other coach gives us more of the same or something totally different? Probably more of the same as we have experienced in the past. Certainly get rid of a bad coaches but don't swap one average/good coach for another, as this most likely would be the case as the elite DC's are either going to remain on their teams or become HCs very shortly. Then you are just rolling the dice on a young unknown and hoping they are better than average/good. 

[VonKarman]

We are also playing one of the easiest schedules. Looking at PPD in vacuum is meaningless.

[Mr Anonymous]

It's going to be a real hoot as the defense gets healthy and the schedule softens yet performs worse because Barry reverts back to playing conservative. Defies logic that you'd let castoffs be more aggressive than your preferred starters but that's where we are with JB.

 

Basically a reverse jinx attempt to avoid that potential outcome but there's almost assuredly a lot of truth in there