State of the Steelers

[warfelg]

So taking a deep dive post trade deadline into positions, today starting at WR.

Wide Receiver was seen as a strength on this offense going into the season, but it turns out it wasn’t.  It’s been quite pedestrian with little returns in the scoring, YAC, and yards departments.  The group lacks a true leader, and after the trade deadline is now seeking a slot option.  There’s some hope with the future, especially with the two rookies.  Pickens might be a future WR1, but he’s learning how to take that pressure.  This is a sudden need to address soon.

So a look at their contract statuses:

Diontae Johnson: 2023 $16,333,333; 2024 $15,833,334

George Pickens: 2023 $1,534,586; 2024 $1,841,503; 2025 $2,148,420

Calvin Austin III: 2023: $996,085; 2024 $1,111,085; 2025 $1,226,085

Gunner Olszelski: 2023: $2,617,500

UFA: Miles Boykin, Steven Sims, Anthony Miller

Gunner Olszenlski - There’s an out at the end of 2022 to cut him with $0 in dead money.  If we let the 2023 cap calendar start we would carry a dead cap of $617,500.

Diontae Johnson - There’s an out with $19,666,667 in dead cap.  However if we trade him there would be $11,666,667 in dead cap.

2023 WR PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT WR’S:

Diontae Johnson - 70% lock to stay -  While not a #1 WR, he’s paid like a boarder line one.  However if Pickens makes the jump we expect, DJ would be a very solid #2 WR.  He seems to have drop issues at inopportune times, despite somehow dodging big drop “numbers”.  So why the 70% lock number and not higher?  WR FA class is weak in 2023 and DJ has a favorable short term contract.  Add in that WR is “weak” in the draft this year and DJ becomes a guy who is incredibly valuable on the trade market.  While it would take a good offer to move him, I’m not locked out from the idea.

George Pickens - 99.9% lock to stay - He has flashed all the tools you would expect out of a #1 WR.  Size, hands, high pointing, body control, speed, all of it.  I look forward to seeing a more diverse route tree out of him as he finishes out his rookie year, as this should help with his separation numbers.  Only reason he’s not a 100% chance to stay is you should never say never to moving anyone when you need help the way we do.

Calvin Austin III - 85% lock to stay - 2022 is going to go down as a wasted year for the small speedster from Memphis.  While I lament not getting to see him at all, it’s ok in the end as Steven Sims can be used as the Austin ‘stand in’ with the offense through the end of the year.  I feel as though the 85% lock number should come from a health perspective.

Gunner Olszewlski - 25% lock to stay - I’m not confident in him staying, and he may be a guy who makes it through the early cuts just purely on a numbers game standpoint.  With so few WR’s on the roster, Khan may feel like he’s a necessity to keep so they don’t end up undermanned at WR should FA and the draft not pan out the way would hope.

Miles Boykin - 50/50 retention chances - Tomlin has long enjoyed having a ST ace that’s also a WR, even if they are a one trick pony on offense.  I think Boykin is that.  He’s got that DHB quality for ST while being able to do something on offense.  Given he would be a cheap option at that spot I wouldn’t mind seeing him on a 2-3 year minimum deal or $1,000,000 AAV deal to fill that role.

Steven Sims - 40% retention chances - I think Austin’s injury recovery is tied directly to Sims’s chances of being retained.  I’m not overly keen on the idea of keeping him as that would mean a majority of our WR’s would be on the shorter side.  The second half of the year is going to be an Austin stand in/extended audition for a roster spot.

Anthony Miller - 1% retention chance - Never say never but Miller can not stay healthy.  I can’t see him being someone to go out of the way to keep as there likely won’t be a big push from anyone to go out of their way to sign him.

2023 NOTABLE FA’S

Allen Lazard - He’s got the tools but has rarely put anything together.

Juju Smith-Schuester - We've got a history and know what he is.  However unless we trade DJ, sign/draft an X, he’s not likely to be reacquired. 

Mecole Hardman - I think he’s a guy with tons of potential but has been in an offense that uses his skill set the best they can and don’t get the most.  He’s a lesser DJ or rich man’s Austin, so not really a great fit.

Nelson Agholor - I know he’s not the greatest WR, but I think he would be a nice addition to the team.  I think he’s that vet that can come in, help some on offense, but also be the leader in the lockerroom and in the meeting rooms to guide the young players.

2023 NOTABLE DRAFT ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

Quinten Johnston - 6’4” 201 TCU - He’s a big smooth route runner.  He reminds me a lot of that Pickens skill set and style.  I’m not as high on him though because he comes from a system where many like him were raw and saw success.  I worry that he’s purely winning from being a better athlete.

Jaxon Smith-Njimgba - 6’0” 197 - When he’s on the field he’s electric.  But this year being on the field has been the problem. Now a great question here: would he be playing through some of this is he were in the NFL? Hard to say.  I partially think that he’s not playing because he know’s he’s a high pick regardless.

Kayshon Boutte - 6’0” 197 - He’s had some really bad mental lapse moments this year.  He’s certainly skilled enough to be a game changer, but the lazy play is worrisome and why I wouldn’t be too eager to go after him.

Jordan Addison - 6’2” 175 - He was a stud last year.  In a way I wish we got to see JaMarr Chase without Joe Burrow to have a better feel is these top QB/WR relationships were because of the QB or because of the WR.  My natural inclination is to say it’s the WR, but Addison has been underwhelming from a stats perspective.

2023 SLEEPER WR’S VIA FA

Zach Pascal - Was supposed to be the #2 in Indy, signed with Philly to be the #3.  He’s a guy that’s got good skills and could be a nice cheap pickup.

Breshard Permian - Been in TB a few years now.  Widely seen as a draft bust, I think he’s in great position to be that good vet leader player who doesn’t need a lot of snaps.

2023 SLEEPER WR’S VIA DRAFT

Parker Washington - I feel like he could be 2023’s Diontae Johnson of a guy without the superstar stats or moments, but enough is there to warrant a high pick to be used.

Rashee Rice - More of a speedy downfield guy, he doesn’t possess Claypool like height, but he does replicate some of what Claypool brought to the table.

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by warfelg

[warfelg]

Second positional group for today: Defensive Back

This group, despite being one of those solid groups, is quite a miss.  There’s no real CB1 who can take on and contain your best WR.  We seem to do fine against “groups” at WR, but struggle against teams with “That Guy” at the position.  They have good leader types from mentality (Minkah), vocal input (Sutton), or even working yourself into something (Edmunds).  But that doesn’t make up for a lack of talent as an overall group.

A look at their contract statuses.

CB’s:

William Jackson: 2023 $12,750,000

Levi Wallace: 2023 $5,482,5000

Ahkello Witherspoon: 2023 $5,482,500

Arthut Maulet: 2023 $2,290,000

Carlins Platel: 2023 $870,000; 2024 $985,000

UFA’s - Josh Jackson, Cam Sutton RFA’s James Pierre

William Jackson - 2023 is an out with $0 dead cap.

Cam Sutton - 2023-25 void 5 days after SB with $2,100,000 in dead cap for 2023.

Levi Wallace - 1 year out with $1,482,500 in dead cap

Ahkello Witherspoon - 1 year out with $1,482,500 in dead cap

Arthur Maulet - 1 year out with $500,000 in dead cap

S’s:

Minkah Fitzpatrick: 2023 $18,000,000; 2024 $18,000,000; 2025 $19,000,000; 2026 $21,100,000

Miles Killebrew: 2023 $2,482,500

Tre Norwood: 2023 $963,610; 2024 $1,078,610

UFA: Karl Joseph, Damontae Kazee, Terrell Edmunds, Marcus Allen

2023 DB PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT CB’s

William Jackson - 20% lock to stay - He’s a low lock mostly due to salary.  If he does will in the second half of the season, I can see them converting some salary to bonus and extending 2-3 years with no new money to lower that cap hit.  Ultimately because of contract structure I have my doubts.

Levi Wallace - 75% lock to stay - When he is healthy enough to be on the field, he has been a good play.  Nothing spectacular but he isn’t easily beaten either so that’s a great thing.  As long as he doesn’t get seriously hurt down the stretch I can’t see him going anywhere.  The downside is as the room currently looks for 2023, he’s our CB1 and would be quite overmatched at that position.

Ahkello Witherspoon - 40% lock to stay - Given his low cap hit, I can see them keeping him around as experienced depth in 2023, especially if Sutton walks.  That said, I think the chances are much higher that they take the cap savings.  You can easily find streaky play on the FA market at CB for a vet min deal to fill that role.

Arthur Maulet - 90% lock to stay - I think the lowly chance we don’t keep him is wanting an huge overhaul to the DB room with literally only wanting 1 person to stick (Minkah).  He fills the “little LB” nickel role we like to have guys play despite limited coverage skills.  I would kill to be able to roll slot cover skills (Sutton) into a slot run blitzer skills (Maulet) and not give away what the defensive play call is.

Josh Jackson - 30% retention chances - He filled in nicely when we needed him, but in the end he’s JAG who can help out when you need him to time to time.  I don’t think that he’s a guy you go out of the way to sign early and if you do its because you just want to make sure you have bodies.

Cam Sutton - 65% retention chances - I really think we should work to keep Cam and make him the full time slot with CB2 flexibility.  However - I do think a team with a CB2 need and a rookie contract QB (aka has cap space) that is looking to make a jump will be all over him with an overloaded contact.  I look at Cincinnati, Philadelphia, San Francisco, LAC with this.

James Pierre - 90% retention chances - He’s played nicely in relief but he’s not a starter in this league.  That said, his low cost as a RFA could lead to a late round tag, and there could be a team that looks at losing a pick for a solid mid-tier backup corner would be helpful.  In that way if a tea like Dallas, Minnesota, Cleveland wanted him, I would not match the offer out there.

2023 DB PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT S’s

Minkah Fitzpatrick - 100% lock to stay - It’s Minkah.  I don’t think much else needs to be said here.  It’s not just the contract as to why he’s a lock, but he continues to do the things he needs to do because of the state of the defense.  He’s missed a few plays this year that he hasn’t in the past, but I’m not worried.

Miles Killebrew - 98% lock to stay - He’s a special teams ace, and I don’t think that the FO should be looking to cut someone like that for minimal returns.  He doesn’t give you much outside of that though.

Tre Norwood - 80% lock to stay - He was one talked up a bunch through the offseason as “the Steelers have 4 starting quality safeties”.  And he’s been a let down in that way.  He’s also had his Swiss Army knife tool kit taken away partially due to injury, partially due to big misses.  

Terrell Edmunds - 75% retention chances - He’s turned himself into a good starting strong safety in the NFL.  He won’t command top dollar but I think he’s a guy that might command a bigger contract because there’s teams with safety needs out there and big cap space like Chicago, Atlanta, and New England.

Damontae Kazee - 70% retention chances - He’s been injured, but he’s also been a starter.  I think he could easily be retained but he’s going to be a short term answer at strong safety then.  However he’s similar to Edmunds with a bit more coverage skills.  Only reason I have his chances lower than Edmunds is the lack of starting for him here could be had elsewhere.

Karl Joseph - 10% retention chances - He’s been injured in both years and I don’t think this team should be too willing to try again with him.  

Marcus Allen - 5% retention chances - He’s been more of an ILB but he can’t see the field elsewhere than ST’s.  We don’t really have the space on the roster to do that with multiple players at the same position areas.

2023 NOTABLE FA’S

CBs - 

James Bradberry - He’s a better man corner, but at that age that he might start to decline.  Despite that I still wouldn’t mind him as a stop gap CB1.

Marcus Peters - He’s a CB1 talent but he also gambles a lot on routes and can be quite the hot head.

Jonathan Jones - Did good early, hasn’t been bad but hasn’t been great either.  Like the other two he can be a CB1 for the short term if you need him to.

Ss - 

Jessie Bates III - Yes he’s not having a great year, and Minkah is a FS as well, but I can picture playing 2-high regularly with Minkah and Jessie and giving other teams fits trying to throw the ball past 15 yards on us.

Jordan Poyer - You can copy and paste the above, but add in some more box skills out of Poyer than Bates.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson - I don’t think Philly will let him walk easily but, man, he would be a get.  SS/FS/NCB skills all in one package and only 25 years old.

2023 NOTABLE DRAFT ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

CBs - 

Kelee Ringo - 6’2” 205 - This is going to be the guy that’s the best defensive player in the draft.  He’s a long big corner, but he also moves well.  Doesn’t have the worlds greatest ball skills but he makes up for it with some really goo PBU ability.

Joey Porter Jr - 6’2” 192 - He’s going to be a guy who slips some but will end up making a year 1 impact.  He is super long and can play up on a guy while still have the space to operate.

Cam Smith - 6’0” 188 - He’s going to get drafted high, but he’s not a favorite of mine.  He’s a good fast corner but his ball skills leave some to be desired and he’s on the light side for a corner of his height.  I’d be worried about strong WR’s out physicalling him to the ball.

Ss -

Antonio Johnson - 6’3” 200 - I know he plays corner and is highly rated there but he’s going to be a safety in the NFL.  His hips are a little too tight to be a corner at the NFL and he’s a touch to slow for NFL WRs.  That said, he can be a game changing box safety with his tackle ability, nose for the ball, and can use his frame and cover skills to take out TE’s.

Brian Branch - 6’0 190 - He’s going to be an undersized guy at safety but he’s been used in that Minkah role at Bama this year.  Sometimes in the box, sometimes single high, sometimes in coverage.  He might take some time to settle into what he really is at the NFL level.

2023 SLEEPER DBs VIA FA

CBs -

Greedy Williams - How is he a sleeper?  He’s been hurt a bunch off and on.  But when he plays he’s been a solid corner.

Ryan Neal - When called upon he’s delivered with some good.  In fact, I think he’s been overlooked due to the play of Woolen (pat on back for calling that).  I think he’s a guy that just needs a chance.

Ss -

DeShon Elliott - Auspicious start to his career but he’s bloomed some in Detroit.  He could be a guy who flies under the radar for a contract this offseason.

Donovan Wilson - Like CGJ he fills up the stat sheet but because he’s doing so much, he might go overlooked when it comes to FA.

2023 SLEEPER DBs VIA Draft

CBs -

Kei’Trel Clark - He’s undersized, but is a very fluid mover.  Will be a career CB2/3 like Sutton as his lack of size will prevent him from being able to take on the top targets for opposing teams.

Julius Brents - He’s one of the really long really tall corner mold.  He’s tested in terms of passing from the Big 12, but it’s not a talented conference at QB or WR so how much is because of poor LOC.

Ss -

Brandon Joseph - He’s got decent skills.  He was a transfer for 2022 and went to a team with major turmoil over the start of the season.  But he’s going to be a SS splash play machine if given the chance.

Jay Ward - He’s been a corner, but projects to safety.  He’s got ball skills, but isn’t super physical.  Will need to spend some time bulking up for the NFL as he’s really lean.

[43M]

Good write ups @warfelg.

Not a great FA class.

Retain Sims at a WR/RS and dump Gunner.   Cant see Dionte leaving until maybe 24.   I would consider Addison if we end uo trading down. 

DB...keep what we have at safety in 23.   Potentially look to upgrade in 24.   CB...I would keep everyone until after the draft.    If we end up drafting someone, then look to move/cut a player like Weatherspoon.   While our secondary needs more talent, I feel like it can be suffice with a real pass rush.   

Im 100% on board with replacing Highsmith at this point.    He is an okay complement to Watt when Watt is healthy, but without TJ he is JAG.    We need another real pass rush threat in the potential absence of Watt.

[warfelg]

14 minutes ago, 43M said:

Im 100% on board with replacing Highsmith at this point.    He is an okay complement to Watt when Watt is healthy, but without TJ he is JAG.    We need another real pass rush threat in the potential absence of Watt.

I’ll get to this another day. But for the pass rush/secondary. While it can pass with a good pass rush I don’t want to sink too much into getting that going then you are always playing this average game at CB. What happens is the pass rush gets stymied?

[43M]

42 minutes ago, warfelg said:

I’ll get to this another day. But for the pass rush/secondary. While it can pass with a good pass rush I don’t want to sink too much into getting that going then you are always playing this average game at CB. What happens is the pass rush gets stymied?

I dont disagree at all.   Just saying we have so many holes and I think there is a much better chance of us finding a good pass rusher going into 23 than a true lockdown CB1.

[AFF]

Good write ups @warfelg

DB is tricky…I’d like to resign Sutton for the slot and agree with you and @43M with trying to resign Edmunds for SS.

Im assuming at least 1 of WJIII or Witherspoon is gone next year…WJ cut saves like $13 mill and Witherspoon about $4 mill…I’d also like to resign Kazee…they won’t cut Killebrew due to STs.

Ill get to WRs later.

[43M]

I think if WJIII plays decent, they will try to either rework his deal or cut and try to resign him.   Nothing short of him being a shutdown CB would make the Steelers pay him what he is due next season.

Either way....they need to bring Cam and Wallace back next year.   If they cant keep WJ3, we will likely keep Weatherspoon.       I just hope we don't go into the draft with a glaring hole at CB.    Thats how we ended up reaching on Artie Burnt.

[mwalker]

On your first post:

Depends on what we need.

If Pickens and Johnson play wide, I reckon we're looking for a slot. 
I think it's all about separation and route running vs going big slot again, personally.

Possible slots:

J.Addison - will be the first or second receiver picked. I wouldn't pick a receiver in RD 1.
(he's not 6'2 by the way).

J.Smith Njiba - he could be a killer in the slot if you get in RD 2.

Q.Johnston - could be a big slot, but I think he's too similar to Claypool.

Some other names to consider:

J.Downs - Electric, all the YAC
M.Mims - great speed and YAC
J.Hyatt - tearing up the field this year
Z.Flowers - small, but great slot
R.Jarrett - a bit bigger than others, but a lot of talent

A big time sleeper:

J.Cowing (Arizona) - if he comes out, he's special quick and great hands.
For a terrible team, he's top 10 in the country for catches and yards. 




 

On your second (DBs) post:

All depends on what happens with Jackson and Edmunds.

If we don't keep Edmunds, I think you're looking at vision and tackling.

Possible Minkah partners:

J.Battle - he'd look very nice next to Minkah

J.Skinner - this kid is a bit of a freak at 6'4

B.Burns - versatile, some project him as a slot-corner. Great tackler. 

Some other names to consider:

B.Joseph - he's a very solid player
J.Ward - he's also solid, as you mention

As for corners:

Porter, Smith and Ringo gone early, so you'd have to spend a 1.

I also really like:

M.Moore - similar to Burns in that he is versatile and a good tackler.
C.Phillips - excellent slot corner
E.Forbes - not very big, but big ballhawk
E.Ricks - very Steelers-like, tall and fast.
J.Jones - same
G.Williams - excellent slot corner
T.Stevenson - also quite Steelers like 
T.Hodges-Tomlinson - small, but mighty slot corner
D.Turner - I like this guy from Michigan 

 

[warfelg]

32 minutes ago, mwalker said:

J.Smith Njiba - he could be a killer in the slot if you get in RD 2

He’s gonna go top 10. 

[mwalker]

2 hours ago, warfelg said:

He’s gonna go top 10. 

Think so?
Maybe.
I think his injury plagued season means he slips.
Last season, he sure would've.

[warfelg]

8 hours ago, mwalker said:

Think so?
Maybe.
I think his injury plagued season means he slips.
Last season, he sure would've.

Absolutely. Chase went too 10 without playing. Williams went top 15 with a torn ACL. JSN has had a hamstring injury that we’ve seen plenty of NFL players play through. Him sitting out is more about avoiding bad tape than anything else. 

[jebrick]

I would never take a Wr in the first unless they are Megatron-like.  I am sure Addison ( for reasons given) and Porter( for reasons given) will be considered with the 1st pick. 

 

Porter is CB#3 in this draft at best.  He is grabby and might have issues in the NFL.  I would rather have Ringo.

Addison is not megatron nor is he Jamar Chase.  He is more Amari Cooper than anything else.  Very high floor but not much beyond that.  You can hope he turns into AB ( without the crazies) and he has that skill set.  Not sure about the top end speed AB had but he has the agility.

[warfelg]

25 minutes ago, jebrick said:

I would never take a Wr in the first unless they are Megatron-like.

This is not a stance I support. LT, Edge, extremely dominate IDL, CB, WR, QB are the only positions I consider in the first. 

[MOSteelers56]

I'd take an absolute dominate OG in the first. Safety and RB are about the only positions I'd avoid almost at all cost in the first. It'd have to be an absolute stud ILB or OG, though. 

[warfelg]

4 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I'd take an absolute dominate OG in the first. Safety and RB are about the only positions I'd avoid almost at all cost in the first. It'd have to be an absolute stud ILB or OG, though. 

I’d only do those if you have 2 1sts.