StLunatic88 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 9 hours ago, CBears019 said: Houston is just teasing us now. I think they’re one loss away from locking in that #1 spot. no, because of their tie, they cant have more than 2 wins (as of now/if we lose out) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Assuming the Rams lose to GB tonight, we really want a LAR - DEN tie this coming weekend. That would leave only one 4-win team without a tie (unless AZ beats TB on Christmas). Unlikely, but in 2022? Might be a stronger possibility than in a normal year lol. I’d love to go into that MIN game with no way to fall below the 2nd pick, then for us to kick their *** heading into the offseason. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: Assuming the Rams lose to GB tonight, we really want a LAR - DEN tie this coming weekend. That would leave only one 4-win team without a tie (unless AZ beats TB on Christmas). Unlikely, but in 2022? Might be a stronger possibility than in a normal year lol. I’d love to go into that MIN game with no way to fall below the 2nd pick, then for us to kick their *** heading into the offseason. Which is exactly why I am rooting real hard for the Rams tonight (first time in years) They still have a good defense, and heres hoping for some Baker magic. That all but officially knocks the Packers out, and takes the Lions (LAR Pick) 2 clear of us. Then we can root for the Broncos to beat the Rams off the short turn around next week to push them clear by 2 wins If that happens, all we have to worry about is the Cardinals, who have a pair of games against the Awful NFC South, and then of course, we cant shoot ourselves in the foot along the way Edited December 19, 2022 by StLunatic88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskieBear Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: Which is exactly why I am rooting real hard for the Rams tonight (first time in years) They still have a good defense, and heres hoping for some Baker magic. That all but officially knocks the Packers out, and takes the Lions (LAR Pick) 2 clear of us. Then we can root for the Broncos to beat the Rams off the short turn around next week to push them clear by 2 wins If that happens, all we have to worry about is the Cardinals, who have a pair of games against the Awful NFC South, and then of course, we cant shoot ourselves in the foot along the way Best Case and most likely to happen (not will happen, but looking at the schedule, how it could happen), assuming Houston stays at 1: LAR over GB tonight - LAR to 5 wins DEN over LAR on 12/25 - DEN to 5 wins AZ over ATL on 1/1, MAYBE over TB on 12/25 - AZ to 5 wins IND over HOU on 1/8 - IND to 5 wins again tho, if CHI loses out and HOU wins 2 of their next 3 (@Ten, vs Jax, @Ind) then CHI moves to #1. It's unlikely, but they've looked frisky in their last two games against KC and DAL, plus division games are always wonky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 56 minutes ago, HuskieBear said: Best Case and most likely to happen (not will happen, but looking at the schedule, how it could happen), assuming Houston stays at 1: LAR over GB tonight - LAR to 5 wins DEN over LAR on 12/25 - DEN to 5 wins AZ over ATL on 1/1, MAYBE over TB on 12/25 - AZ to 5 wins IND over HOU on 1/8 - IND to 5 wins again tho, if CHI loses out and HOU wins 2 of their next 3 (@Ten, vs Jax, @Ind) then CHI moves to #1. It's unlikely, but they've looked frisky in their last two games against KC and DAL, plus division games are always wonky I just hope we lock in the #2 overall pick rather than hope Houston blow it...I just hope Fields doesn't have the mind set of it being his last game of the season and do something insane against Minnesota or even Detroit in trying to win one of those games because the kid is so special he might just do it by himself which obviously wouldn't be good for us long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskieBear Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 17 hours ago, Madmike90 said: I just hope we lock in the #2 overall pick rather than hope Houston blow it...I just hope Fields doesn't have the mind set of it being his last game of the season and do something insane against Minnesota or even Detroit in trying to win one of those games because the kid is so special he might just do it by himself which obviously wouldn't be good for us long term. i agree, while there is a path to #1, it's unlikely. for 3 more games, we need justin to take the cap off a little bit. hopefully the injuries to jenkins and whitehair keep them out for the rest of the year. maybe jaylon gets shut down too. def don't need to play hero ball these last 3 games and blow it coincidentally, today is the 2 year anniversary that the 0-13 jets beat the 9-4 rams. this dropped the jets from #1 to #2, and the jaguars ended up taking some guy named Lawrence and the jets settled for a scrub. this is the stuff we don't want to happen to us, a late, meaningless victory 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 13 hours ago, HuskieBear said: coincidentally, today is the 2 year anniversary that the 0-13 jets beat the 9-4 rams. this dropped the jets from #1 to #2, and the jaguars ended up taking some guy named Lawrence and the jets settled for a scrub. this is the stuff we don't want to happen to us, a late, meaningless victory To be fair, the consolation prize of a late, meaningless victory is very likely Jalen Carter or Will Anderson, or still possibly a trade down to someone after Stroud or Will Levis (whichever doesn’t go #2 overall). We’re in a great spot to add an elite talent pretty much no matter what if we go 1-2 or 0-3 over the final 3 games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Doing simulator drafts with #2 overall pick is a lot more fun than not even having a first rounder at all. Which way we have mostly had to do it in recent years. Hoge and Jahns show today has an SEC reporter on. I think he was reporter. Some guy involved in SEC. He said two SEC coaches told him Jalen Carter is best player and was best player on Georgia last year as well. Pretty impressive considering GA had 4 first round defensive players go including number one overall. Gun to my head and I have to take a pick I am taking Carter. He is most talented. But given choice, I still trade down for a 2023 first round swap, a 2024 first rounder plus a 2023 2nd rounder and some change. Something in that neighborhood. 3 or 4 top 50 picks even across two years is (usually) worth more than any 1 pick for non-QB. Now if Carter turns out to be Aaron Donald then you screwed up. But I play the odds. Even if Carter is awesome he likely only plays 60% or so of defensive snaps at most. Take the trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Let's hope that Poles has a crystal clear idea of what value he places on the pick they get, and the players they could use it on. So far his trades have been not great on value but very good for clearing the roster and contracts. If past trades up to the top of the draft are any indication it could be multiple picks including first roudners from later years, just like you're describing. Best case scenario is some goofy bidding war for pick #2 that looks like it's out of a draft sim, and gets the Bears only moving back a couple picks and picking up future firsts and multiple 2-4 rd picks in 2023. Could even land Carter or Anderson and still get this haul if everything breaks well and teams end up working the price up. The only way to truly screw this all up is if Fields get's seriously long term hurt in a game that everyone wants them to lose. Hopefully everyone involves realizes what they've got and he plays safe and smart while getting those reps he apparently still needs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said: Let's hope that Poles has a crystal clear idea of what value he places on the pick they get, and the players they could use it on. So far his trades have been not great on value but very good for clearing the roster and contracts. If past trades up to the top of the draft are any indication it could be multiple picks including first roudners from later years, just like you're describing. Best case scenario is some goofy bidding war for pick #2 that looks like it's out of a draft sim, and gets the Bears only moving back a couple picks and picking up future firsts and multiple 2-4 rd picks in 2023. Could even land Carter or Anderson and still get this haul if everything breaks well and teams end up working the price up. The only way to truly screw this all up is if Fields get's seriously long term hurt in a game that everyone wants them to lose. Hopefully everyone involves realizes what they've got and he plays safe and smart while getting those reps he apparently still needs. You have to be ready to change the plan on draft day. At #2 there are scenarios that may happen where trade back in first round and a QB someone wants is still on board and you can trade back again. We gave an extra 1 and change to go from 20 to 11 in 2021. KC gave an extra 1st and 3rd to move from 27 to 10 to take Mahomes. Lots of trades that give a third to move up a spot or two in first. I have done mocks on different simulators where I trade back multiple times in first some more realistic than others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Houston gave up a #1 to move up to #12 from #25 for Watson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Im still praying for the situation where we are #2 and Indy is #3. That way we pull off a Mitch trade, Swap our seconds (pick up like 20 spots in the round) plus the Commanders 3rd they have, and next years 3rd. Something like that But we need 3 other teams to pick up wins for that to happen, with only one guaranteed 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTD Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Everything depends on FA. Complete DEs are not there right now but there are multiple DTs . Signing 2 of Payne, Hardgraves, Dremont Jones and or Ford or another NT would push Poles toward a pass Rushing DE (Anderson) instead of Carter. IMO though , trading down and picking up either DE Murphy or Wilson is the home run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said: Im still praying for the situation where we are #2 and Indy is #3. That way we pull off a Mitch trade, Swap our seconds (pick up like 20 spots in the round) plus the Commanders 3rd they have, and next years 3rd. Something like that But we need 3 other teams to pick up wins for that to happen, with only one guaranteed Well the idiotic Colts are now playing Nick Foles on MNF, so a loss there is even more realistic now But you're right. The odds aren't great Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 13 hours ago, beardown3231 said: Well the idiotic Colts are now playing Nick Foles on MNF, so a loss there is even more realistic now But you're right. The odds aren't great Someone said if Ryan gets hurt Colts owe him another 17 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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