Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

[15412]

27 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

I almost went to school for Sports Management but I didn't want to go to school in Pennsylvania lol. My dream was becoming an AD or GM.

Hey with a degree in Sports Management you could have ended up making the big bucks as a talking head on Ancient Aliens.  Their main guy has a degree in Sports Management!

[pgwingman]

6 minutes ago, 15412 said:

Hey with a degree in Sports Management you could have ended up making the big bucks as a talking head on Ancient Aliens.  Their main guy has a degree in Sports Management!

 

 

 

lol this guy??

[craig]

Packer draft norms have helped inform intelligent draft prediction for a long time.  As we saw last year, selecting a 24-year-old and drafting an ILB both surprised draft norms.   In 2011 (?) drafting an offensive non-QB (Bulaga) also upset team norms.  So, I'm somewhat open to being surprised.  Maybe they shock us and draft the too-small edge from Georgia?  Who knows.  Always a lot of conflicting variables in each case-by-case decision.  

I also wonder whether they ever reconsider things? Sometimes smart leaders do make some adjustments and make some changes.  

Edited April 17, 2023 by craig

[15412]

25 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

 

 

 

lol this guy??

Yep!  I've seen his major listed as Communications but also have seen it clarified as Sports Management.

Edited April 17, 2023 by 15412

[craig]

Packers have #78 in the 3rd, and #116 in the 4th. **IF** Gute doesn't claim the 15>13 tradeup option in round 1, I think there's a chance he'll get Jets pick #112 in the 4th. 

WR:  Drafttek https://www.drafttek.com/2023-NFL-Draft-Position-Rankings/Top-College-WRs-2023-NFL-Draft.asp has 13 WR in their top 101 players.  8 of them bundled between 61-101.  Of those 8, four are 6'1" or longer, 5 are 204 or heavier, and only one is lighter than 192.  

Any of those might perhaps scout as good BP value with a 4th round pick, and some might seem good value in round 3?  Especially since MLF scouts WR quite differently from other scouts.   

As RT has mentioned, while Gute scouted Amari pretty badly, and he ended up having neither COD, quickness, nor hands, it's still possible that MLF sees a role for a guy who isn't a power forward?  And who might have the COD/quickness/hands that they mistakenly thought Amari might have?  

[Chili]

9 minutes ago, craig said:

Packer draft norms have helped inform intelligent draft prediction for a long time.  As we saw last year, selecting a 24-year-old and drafting an ILB both surprised draft norms.   In 2011 (?) drafting an offensive non-QB (Bulaga) also upset team norms.  So, I'm somewhat open to being surprised.  Maybe they shock us and draft the too-small edge from Georgia?  Who knows.  Always a lot of conflicting variables in each case-by-case decision.  

I also wonder whether they ever reconsider things? Sometimes smart leaders do make some adjustments and make some changes.  

Piggybacking on what you wrote, last year we drafted an ILB with our first pick.

A few years before that we drafted a safety with our first round pick.,

I think Gute has shown he is willing to invest high draft picks in positions outside of the traditional positions of OT, EDGE, CB.

However I would be surprised if he invested a 1st round pick on a TE. If Gute is going to do something different this year it's probably drafting a RT instead of a LT or draft the best safety again due to losing Amos and with question marks over Savage.

[pgwingman]

37 minutes ago, 15412 said:

Yep!

haha that's awesome. Beekay414 may regret not being in the sports industry, but my regret is not having a job that discusses alien activity

[smetana34]

2 hours ago, Leader said:

 

I pretty much hate that. Don't like Mayer in the 1st, don't see the point it trading for Davis and selecting a WR early, to top it off the receiver taken early is more a gadget player anyway. Might feel a little better about the receiver pick of it was Johnson, Tillman, or Mingo. 

[ThatJerkDave]

39 minutes ago, craig said:

Packers have #78 in the 3rd, and #116 in the 4th. **IF** Gute doesn't claim the 15>13 tradeup option in round 1, I think there's a chance he'll get Jets pick #112 in the 4th. 

WR:  Drafttek https://www.drafttek.com/2023-NFL-Draft-Position-Rankings/Top-College-WRs-2023-NFL-Draft.asp has 13 WR in their top 101 players.  8 of them bundled between 61-101.  Of those 8, four are 6'1" or longer, 5 are 204 or heavier, and only one is lighter than 192.  

Any of those might perhaps scout as good BP value with a 4th round pick, and some might seem good value in round 3?  Especially since MLF scouts WR quite differently from other scouts.   

As RT has mentioned, while Gute scouted Amari pretty badly, and he ended up having neither COD, quickness, nor hands, it's still possible that MLF sees a role for a guy who isn't a power forward?  And who might have the COD/quickness/hands that they mistakenly thought Amari might have?  

If you like the COD quickness guy, look at the RB that we brought in for a visit.  Keaton Mitchell from East Carolina.  He does a lot of the things that I think they wanted Ervin and Austin to do a few years ago.  He is shifty as hell, and has long speed to go on top of it.  He can also catch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82tM0m3fnSg

Amari was probably drafted with that position in mind.  But he just wasn't very good at it.  I think it would also help delineate the WR position, with height and weight requirements, and a gadget position, without those requirements, while having similar but not exact roles in the offense.  Ervin was a RB, Austin was a WR, but they played the same position.  

 

If you go even further down that list, some of my personal favorites are there:  AT Perry, Xavier Hutchinson, Andrei Iosivas, Puka Nakua, Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Jadon Haselwood, Matt Landers, Justin Shorter.  Most of these guys are big, and play big.  

 

[R T]

44 minutes ago, craig said:

Packer draft norms have helped inform intelligent draft prediction for a long time.  As we saw last year, selecting a 24-year-old and drafting an ILB both surprised draft norms.   In 2011 (?) drafting an offensive non-QB (Bulaga) also upset team norms.  So, I'm somewhat open to being surprised.  Maybe they shock us and draft the too-small edge from Georgia?  Who knows.  Always a lot of conflicting variables in each case-by-case decision.  

I also wonder whether they ever reconsider things? Sometimes smart leaders do make some adjustments and make some changes.  

Last year's 1st round picks did surprise me a little, but if we had paid better attention they probably shouldn't have. Gutes is loyal to getting the type players the coaching staff desires almost to a fault. The drafting of Walker was a surprise for us because he was an ILB, but in Barry's defense the ILB's might be as important as any position on the defense. That and the Star position. Possibly even categorized as a premium for his defense. In a Pettine run defense they would never spend high draft capital on an ILB, completely different story with Barry. Understand what they want to do within their schemes and a little light starts to shine on the possibilities.  

The selection of Wyatt was a swing at the win now, all-in approach. Many thought Wyatt would be a day one contributor rushing the passer, didn't really work out that way but still justified the swing at help to win now. In looking for draft content on Youtube last night the 1st round recap shows from PFF, Bootleg and Bleacher Report popped up and I clicked ahead to watch their takes on Walker and Wyatt. All 3 of those shows basically said the same things about Wyatt being an instant impact and day one player. PFF thought he could be a 10-sack guy.

With the all-in for Rodgers in the rearview mirror I would guess we might see a more TT type draft this year. Young, athletic, high upsides more likely the norm this go around. IMO. 

[Mazrimiv]

1 hour ago, R T said:

Last year's 1st round picks did surprise me a little, but if we had paid better attention they probably shouldn't have. Gutes is loyal to getting the type players the coaching staff desires almost to a fault. The drafting of Walker was a surprise for us because he was an ILB, but in Barry's defense the ILB's might be as important as any position on the defense. That and the Star position. Possibly even categorized as a premium for his defense. In a Pettine run defense they would never spend high draft capital on an ILB, completely different story with Barry. Understand what they want to do within their schemes and a little light starts to shine on the possibilities.  

Is SAF Branch considered a fit for the Star?

[craig]

1 hour ago, R T said:

....Gutes is loyal to getting the type players the coaching staff desires almost to a fault. The drafting of Walker was a surprise for us because he was an ILB, but in Barry's defense the ILB's might be as important as any position on the defense. ... .

Yeah, we've kind of discussed this before.  In a sense, that enables a retroactive rationalization of almost any pick? 

We all assume they won't take WR or TE.  But what if MLF has been telling Gute that a quick COD WR would transform the offense? Or MLF is obsessed that he can't run his offense without a 2-way TE?  Once they make the pick, and talk about the guy, we'll see some retroactive logic.  

As you say, "almost to a fault" may be a possibility?  You get 4-5 years of control over a draft pick, and those you like you can extend for another batch of years.  But coaches often come and go more quickly, particularly position coaches? 

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by craig

[Chili]

The Packers tried for years without any success finding a player who could play the star position.

Googling it, it's basically a linebacker/safety hybrid, for example Kam Chancellor. When Barry was hired he made a big point of highlighting the star position for his defence but we never found anyone worthwhile to play that role. Over the years we tried players like Josh Jones and Oren Burks. Right now the only player on our roster who theoretically can play this role is Tariq Carpenter.

There's another hybrid position on defence which is the Corner/Safety hybrid, such as Tyrann Matheiu. In the past we drafted Damaruis Randall who could've been that guy for us but unfortunately he was never used that way. Looking at our roster theoretically we already do have that player in Savage but not sure if he can handle the dual responsibilities the hybrid position entails.

The advantage of having good hybrid players is the ability to disguise our coverages. A 3-4 defence may suddenly become a nickle or dime defence at the snap for example.

Lots of players have skipped various combine athletic testing measurements so it's hard for me to identify Star position and Corner/Safety hybrid candidates.  Who should I be looking out for?

Edited April 17, 2023 by Chili

[incognito_man]

26 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

Is SAF Branch considered a fit for the Star?

I think so.

I really, really like Branch. I think his RAS doesn't capture him as well as others.

@Norm might be onto something about there being more to life than computers.

I think he goes in a spot in the draft that we won't be picking, though. But he's my third favorite DB in the draft. He's a baller. 

Edited April 17, 2023 by incognito_man

[packfanfb]

 I wish it was this easy to trade back and get all the guys I want: 

18.

Lukas Van Ness

EDGE Iowa

42.

Cody Mauch

OT North Dakota State

47.

Keeanu Benton

DT Wisconsin

67.

Tyrique Stevenson

CB Miami (FL)

78.

Sam LaPorta

TE Iowa

92.

Israel Abanikanda

RB Pittsburgh

97.

Jonathan Mingo

WR Ole Miss

108.

Luke Schoonmaker

TE Michigan

232.

Matt Landers

WR Arkansas

235.

Daniel Scott

S California

242.

Holton Ahlers

QB East Carolina

256.

Jake Moody

K Michigan

·  2024 NYJ 2nd

·  WR C. Davis

Edited April 17, 2023 by packfanfb