Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

[squire12]

7 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

I agree, but I'm not dumping a premium pick for a blocker. I can get Schoonmaker in the 3rd-4th or Parham in the 4th-6th and get a good blocker. 

agree on the blocking TE.  Schoonmaker, Durham, Leonard Taylor, Ben Sims can be had rounds 3/4-7 vs round 1 or 2

7 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

If GB wants to spend a high pick on a "complete" TE, IMO, that guy is Mayer, not Washington. Both are good blockers but Mayer is lightyears ahead of Washington as a receiver. That being said, Washington is a freak athlete so Gute will probably favor him anyways lol. 

I think GB looks for both types (pass catcher and run blocker) vs trying to find 1 that has both as they are more rare to find.  End game hope is that 1 of them develop the other aspect over the rookie contract to have a complete TE in 1 player

[HighCalebR]

2 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I don't know about that.  Marcedes was always slower than Washington just ran, but he also did 2 more bench reps, and had a vertical 6" higher.  Marcedes was a very good athlete.  It is a lot closer than you think. 

Quite a bit slower. Its maybe not as close as you think. 2 more bench reps. Lol.

[MantyWrestler]

38 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Which is why I fully agree on Mayer. But frankly, I'd probably put Kincaid and LaPorta ahead of Washington if we're talking about TEs helping Love. I'm not as high on Wash, especially in the short term, as a receiving option. 

I feel like Washington  is as close to a plug and play TE as a blocker as I've seen in ages though. Dude's a tank

[packfanfb]

3 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

Whats the target, realistically, for a high end for kincaid 700 yards year 1? 

Its not like we're having our TEs doing complicated ****. Block, leak, find a soft spot in the zone. Washington can run a seam route just fine to clear a zone.

The question I answered was who can help Love the most in 2023. IMO, that's Kincaid over Washington and it's not close. Now there are plenty of reasons not to draft Kincaid as well - age, not a good blocker, etc. Frankly, I wouldn't draft either one of them in the 1st round. I'd be okay with either in the 2nd. Only TE I'm taking in the first round (preferably trading back from 15 first) is Mayer. I'd also be perfectly okay with the Packers waiting to draft a TE until rounds 3-5 and double-dipping at the position. Lot of good guys in the middle rounds. 

[packfanfb]

1 minute ago, MantyWrestler said:

I feel like Washington  is as close to a plug and play TE as a blocker as I've seen in ages though. Dude's a tank

If you mean plug and play in the role Lewis played the last two years, then yea, I agree. 

[HighCalebR]

6 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

The question I answered was who can help Love the most in 2023. IMO, that's Kincaid over Washington and it's not close. Now there are plenty of reasons not to draft Kincaid as well - age, not a good blocker, etc. Frankly, I wouldn't draft either one of them in the 1st round. I'd be okay with either in the 2nd. Only TE I'm taking in the first round (preferably trading back from 15 first) is Mayer. I'd also be perfectly okay with the Packers waiting to draft a TE until rounds 3-5 and double-dipping at the position. Lot of good guys in the middle rounds. 

But what do you mean not close?? Do you think kincaid is just worlds better at combo and leak blocking just a damn dominant chipper? Or he just runs clearing routes better? How can you be worlds better if youre not able to see the field for ~75% of your positions snaps? How often did we split Tonyan/Davis out wide?

Edited April 19, 2023 by HighCalebR

[packfanfb]

6 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

But what do you mean not close?? Do you think kincaid is just worlds better at combo and leak blocking just a damn dominant chipper? Or he just runs clearing routes better? How can you be worlds better if youre not able to see the field for ~75% of your positions snaps? How often did we split Tonyan/Davis out wide?

Purely talking about pass catching ability. IMO, Kincaid would see the field just as much as Tonyan did in our offense. 

[craig]

29 minutes ago, squire12 said:

...I think GB looks for both types (pass catcher and run blocker) vs trying to find 1 that has both as they are more rare to find.  End game hope is that 1 of them develop the other aspect over the rookie contract to have a complete TE in 1 player

Yeah, as you go later in the draft to take the guy, you hope he's good at at least one thing, and can become variably anti-awful, perhaps eventually even good, at the other.  

In terms of an offense, though, you play one guy at a time.  When Lewis was in, defenses could assume a lot of blocking, and usually didn't need to waste any defenders on covering.  Defenses could look and see whether it was Tonyan versus Lewis in.  *IF* you had one guy who could provide both functions, sometimes on the very same play, it would be more challenging for a defense.  

[skibrett15]

55 minutes ago, squire12 said:

agree on the blocking TE.  Schoonmaker, Durham, Leonard Taylor, Ben Sims can be had rounds 3/4-7 vs round 1 or 2

I think GB looks for both types (pass catcher and run blocker) vs trying to find 1 that has both as they are more rare to find.  End game hope is that 1 of them develop the other aspect over the rookie contract to have a complete TE in 1 player

I think the only players worth considering dropping a 2nd rounder or god forbid a 1st have to be excellent receivers.

Honestly though, just take a WR in the same draft slot and try to draft project TEs in the late rounds.

TEs make less money, and we need another pass catcher, plus a blocking TE.  While it would be nice if that was the same player - it's by no means required.  Just take the WR they have higher positional value and draft/sign pieces to fill in as blockers/project move TEs.  I'm fine trying to produce the next Robert Tonyan.

[squire12]

5 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

I think the only players worth considering dropping a 2nd rounder or god forbid a 1st have to be excellent receivers.

Honestly though, just take a WR in the same draft slot and try to draft project TEs in the late rounds.

TEs make less money, and we need another pass catcher, plus a blocking TE.  While it would be nice if that was the same player - it's by no means required.  Just take the WR they have higher positional value and draft/sign pieces to fill in as blockers/project move TEs.  I'm fine trying to produce the next Robert Tonyan.

sure.  Just not sure that there is a WR besides JSN that is worth pick 15

[skibrett15]

1 minute ago, squire12 said:

sure.  Just not sure that there is a WR besides JSN that is worth pick 15

Johnston for sure is to me.  Only player with No. 1 WR skills.  Still a bit of a projection, but much less so than Christian Watson.

I really think all these WRs are being slept on a bit.  Trade down a bit and take Addison in the 20s, Take Flowers in the 40s before you take Kincaid.

 

All the CBs are pretty good problem is that's not a need so maybe you trade down twice.  I think you have to get a bit creative to find value unless you want to take an OT or Mayer or Johnston at 15.  And I'm not all in on Mayer for previous value reasons although I do think he's among the best players in the draft.

 

[MrBobGray]

I just cannot get onboard with a TE in round 1, any TE.  It might be the only position just straight up on my "nope" list.  The biggest issue is that while TEs can often be great athletes at scale, they have to run through the same coverage defenders as WRs and RBs.  A guy who runs a 4.6 isn't going to separate from defenders, even if it's impressive for a 6'6" guy.  So now you're drafting a guy who only contributes more than a baseline TE if he's got great route running and contested catch ability, and even then he's unlikely to have much in the way of YAC.  Every target your TE gets is one your more explosive players don't.

There's been exactly 30 TEs that have had even a single season with 800 yards receiving since 2010.  30, in 13 seasons.  Of those 30, only 13 have had more than 1 season of 800 yards receiving, and of those 13, only Kelce managed 6 or more.  In that same time frame, 160 receivers have managed 800 yards receiving.  102 did it more than once and of those, 17 receivers managed 6 800 yard seasons.  If that seems obvious, ask yourself why you'd want to spend a 1st round pick on a position that, statistically speaking, is unlikely to outproduce even a mediocre WR2. 

Now I know the obvious retort here is that "but TEs block too"!  Which is both true and utterly irrelevant.  For one, you're unlikely to have more than one high quality blocker at TE on the roster, which means you sure as hell aren't building a gameplan around them.  Having  to scrap your entire gameplan if a single player who plays in the box gets injured is a non-starter.  For two, there's barely any TEs in the entire league who move the needle as a blocker when it comes to having to defend an offense. 

So what you're left with is a position that in almost every case provides mediocre blocking and underwhelming receiving, with almost no chance for explosive plays when targeted.  Hard pass.

[Mazrimiv]

This looks to be a very strong TE draft, paired with an unusually weak WR class.

I don't particularly "want" any WR or TE at 15, but I'd be fine with JSN being the pick.

I'd also be fine with any of Mayer / Kincaid / Washington / Musgrave in RD2.

[DWhitehurst]

3 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I think in our position, you still just take the guy that makes the team better long term.  I don't think it is too difficult to see if the QB is struggling, what the issue is.  We should have one of the better offensive lines, again, this season.  We know what we have with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.  Watson, Doubs, and I would argue even Toure, have shown what they can do with at the very least competent QB play.  Now, the best long term answer very well could be an offensive weapon, I am not selling that short.  But I do think that if we were to draft:  TE, TE, WR; with our first three picks, we are probably not taking the best value for the team regardless of whether or not it fills a need.  

Good points. I do not favor taking a TE in Round 1.

However, I could see them going offense on their first three picks, e.g., a WR, TE, RB kind of combo (if JSN is still on board at #15 and if they do not plan on retaining both Jones and Dillon in 2024) or an OT, TE, WR combo, etc. 

Edited April 19, 2023 by DWhitehurst

[OneTwoSixFive]

20 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

So what you're left with is a position that in almost every case provides mediocre blocking and underwhelming receiving, with almost no chance for explosive plays when targeted.  Hard pass.

I'm inclined to agree with you when referring to no TE in round one this year, but not necessarily EVERY year.

I would say that this year TE picks in the 30's (even 30,31) could represent value (trade back or trade up scenario) and most definitely in the 40's.