Skibrett's 6ers Style Rebuild - Keep Mason Crosby Edition

[CWood21]

On 11/7/2022 at 11:58 AM, Old Guy said:

Love your ideas but I think the idea of a 1st for Rodgers has sailed, much less anything additional to that. 

Before the Commanders traded for Carson Wentz, I was in the same boat for you.  It might be a conditional pick though.

[St Vince]

Packers fans waiting until 2027 to become a contending playoff team.

[Malfatron]

On 11/7/2022 at 12:15 PM, Leader said:

Thanks for the thoughts/effort @skibrett15

Thats a nice way of saying it's small

[CWood21]

On 11/7/2022 at 11:54 AM, skibrett15 said:

Move 1: Trade Aaron Rodgers.  Or he retires.  It's one or the other and the cap implication is the same.  Costs $9M to trade or retire.  If you trade him, you can get a 1st and a 2nd.  Ideally you get picks in the 2025/26 drafts rather than the current ones.  That is when the team you traded him to will be fully cooked and bad.

Any Rodgers' deal has to be done post-June 1st, which means that '23 draft picks can't be included.  As I mentioned in another thread, I would ask for a conditional '24 SRP (moves to a FRP if they make the playoffs) and a conditional '25 3rd round pick (3rd if he retires and/or miss the playoffs in 2023, 2nd if they make the playoffs, and 1st if they win the Super Bowl).  Worst case scenario for the team acquiring Aaron Rodgers is they give a SRP in 2024 and a 3rd round pick in 2025.  But they're getting Aaron Rodgers with a very reasonable $16M cap hit for the 2023 season.  After watching Washington trade a pair of 3rd round picks for Carson Wentz (second could move up to a SRP, but probably won't) and the Colts trading a 3rd round pick for Matt Ryan, I think that's fair.

On 11/7/2022 at 11:54 AM, skibrett15 said:

Move 2: Trade David Bakhtiari.  You trade him for whatever you can get.  Maybe you get nothing.

I feel like his trade value is tied heavily to his health.  Over the last 5 games he's played in, he's played in 95% in four of those games.  If he can play in 90%+ in the rest of the games, there will be a trade market for him.  The Packers save $6M by trading him before June 1st, but nearly $18M if they wait until after June 1st.  I think the team would most likely deal him before the draft, so they can get some '23 picks back.  After watching Duane Brown sign a 2 year, $22M contract this past offseason at 37 years old, I have zero doubts that there will be suitors for him.  The team acquiring him would get him for a cap hit of $17.5M which would be 14th highest among LTs in the NFL next year pending any other contracts handed out/changed.  That's a reasonable price for an elite LT if he's healthy.  I think a SRP is probably a reasonable ask for Bakh given his age and injury history, but I think the team acquiring him might prefer a more conditional-based pick.  I could see something like a 4th round pick this year plus a conditional 3rd round pick next year (moves to SRP if Bakh plays in 75% of the snaps or 12 games).

On 11/7/2022 at 11:54 AM, skibrett15 said:

Move 3: Trade Preston Smith.  Still a fine player, you can get a 4th for him, probably more from a contending team after an in-season injury.

Don't think there's a huge market for Preston Smith, and probably doesn't make sense to move him for a 4th round pick.  He's a nice player, but you're going to have to replace those snaps somewhere.  I don't think Kingsley Enagbare is ready to take over those snaps even if he's played well the last few weeks.  Think you're creating more holes than necessary in a rebuild.

On 11/7/2022 at 11:54 AM, skibrett15 said:

Move 4: Trade Aaron Jones.  His contract is rough, but if CMC gets that haul, I think Jones has real value around the league, even at $20m salary.  You have to hold him until the deadline, but there's no reason to cut Jones when you don't really care about 2023/2024 cap space.  Worst case you maybe recoup a 2026 comp pick once he expires in 2025.  You have 2 years to deal him.  Be patient here, but he's a RB and will be playing, so his fuse is burning.

Absolutely need to strike while the iron is hot.  I don't think he gets the haul that CMC got, but he should fetch a solid package.   There's substantial savings ($10M) by trading him before June 1st, so you're looking at getting '23 picks back in return for him.  Any team acquiring him is on the hook for $16M next year, but no guarantees remaining on his deal.  They could restructure that '23 salary and roster bonus into void years if they wanted to lower his cap hit.  Or Green Bay could even convert that roster bonus and base salary into a signing bonus before trading to eat that cap hit.  If that drastically altered the trade package, I'd absolutely do that.

On 11/7/2022 at 11:54 AM, skibrett15 said:

Move 5: Trade Rashan Gary.  Brian Burns got a 2x 1st round pick offer this trade deadline.  Gary will be 28/29 and expensive, and we don't have the cap space in 2023/24 to frontload him.  This is another 2023 deadline guy for me.  Good player, just doesn't fit with the timeline and his value is pretty high as a guy who we haven't committed to but has league value as a top player.  The injury is rough to this plan, but if you get him playing next year then deal him, I think it's a happy ending.

Absolutely not.  First off, we're not getting 2 FRPs for a pass rusher coming off a recently torn ACL.  Teams aren't paying that premium for a guy who isn't available.  Maybe once he's recovered and shown he's still got it we could talk about this kind of package.  But nobody is trading 2 FRPs for a pass rusher coming off a torn ACL.  Secondly, this is the type of player you're not shipping off in a rebuild.  Thirdly, if we do all of the moves we've discussed (except restructure Aaron Jones before trade), the Packers would be nearly $28M in cap space.  That's more than enough to front-load Gary's extension.

[Cpdaly23]

Wait, you want to trade a soon to be 25 year old elite pass rusher in hopes of being able to draft a slightly younger elite pass rusher?  I think that’s getting a bit too cute.

[skibrett15]

2 hours ago, Cpdaly23 said:

Wait, you want to trade a soon to be 25 year old elite pass rusher in hopes of being able to draft a slightly younger elite pass rusher?  I think that’s getting a bit too cute.

Gary is not an elite pass rusher.  He's a solid No. 1 Pass rusher, and by the time you are competing he will be highly highly paid despite not being elite.  Goal of this rebuild is to contend in 3 years, so I don't see why you wouldn't take top value for Gary AND not have to hand out the contract.

If you don't get top value (2x 1sts), you can keep him I guess.  Maybe that's the case since he's injured.

 

[skibrett15]

3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

 First off, we're not getting 2 FRPs for a pass rusher coming off a recently torn ACL.

That's correct, this is 2 FRPs for a player who returns next year, plays, and plays well.  He will be traded at the deadline.

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, skibrett15 said:

That's correct, this is 2 FRPs for a player who returns next year, plays, and plays well.  He will be traded at the deadline.

Or he plays well and he signs a new extension for market value.

[skibrett15]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Or he plays well and he signs a new extension for market value.

Yeah I guess.  If the goal is to contend in 25/26 then I don't see why you would do it - he'll be heading towards a 3rd contract by that point.  Which is already not wiping the slate clean for your cap.

 

3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Any Rodgers' deal has to be done post-June 1st, which means that '23 draft picks can't be included.

I don't want '23 picks for Rodgers.  Later picks are better because the team will be worse by then once Rodgers is done. 

Dealing Rodgers pre/post June 1 doesn't really matter.  You can eat the 9M in extra cap if the plan is to really tank.  It's probably better and sets you up to be worse in '23 with more flexiblility in '24.  Doing it post 6-1 just means you spread out the same number over 2 years.  So I'll take the 24M extra cap space in '24 and pay the 24M in cap in '23.

3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

 The Packers save $6M by trading him before June 1st, but nearly $18M if they wait until after June 1st.

Again, this doesn't matter if your time horizon is post 2024

 

3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Don't think there's a huge market for Preston Smith, and probably doesn't make sense to move him for a 4th round pick.

The time to start the process of moving on from smith was this year's trade deadline.   He has GTD money through 2026 when he will be 34.  If you can get rid of him, do so.  Even for a low draft pick.  He saves 6M by cut/trade, and it's not about 2023 money, it's about not having dead cap in 24/25/26.  I also think he's effective enough that a team would deal for him as a sub rusher/injury replacement.

[CWood21]

11 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

Yeah I guess.  If the goal is to contend in 25/26 then I don't see why you would do it - he'll be heading towards a 3rd contract by that point.  Which is already not wiping the slate clean for your cap.

Your math is off here.  Gary is probably getting a 4 or 5 year deal when he gets his new deal.  He's probably not going to get his extension this offseason, so you're probably talking about midseason 2023 at the very earliest.  Tack on 4 years to his current deal set to expire after the '27 season.  Or '28 season if it's a 5 year deal.  That's 2-3 years of contending with Rashan Gary under contract.  And that's hoping that you can get a pass rusher as good as him in the draft, which is anything but a given.

13 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

I don't want '23 picks for Rodgers.  Later picks are better because the team will be worse by then once Rodgers is done. 

Dealing Rodgers pre/post June 1 doesn't really matter.  You can eat the 9M in extra cap if the plan is to really tank.  It's probably better and sets you up to be worse in '23 with more flexiblility in '24.  Doing it post 6-1 just means you spread out the same number over 2 years.  So I'll take the 24M extra cap space in '24 and pay the 24M in cap in '23.

If you're goal is to be Browns/Lions bad, sure.  But you want the best assets in return for what you're sending out.  If that means paying out his option bonus and spreading out his cap hit over the next 2 years, you do it.  You want the best return on Rodgers.  If a GM asks me to pay his option bonus and instead of receiving a SRP I get a FRP in return, I jump at that.   The Packers are going to be rebuilding for 2-3 years.

15 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

Again, this doesn't matter if your time horizon is post 2024

You're ASSUMING that the Packers will rebound after one bad season in 2023.  The reality is that's probably not going to happen.  It's probably going to be 2-3 years of the Packers sucking before they get back up.  You're looking at 2025 as the time to compete, not 2024.  Three years of high draft picks and what probably is a BUNCH of cap space to spend.

16 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

The time to start the process of moving on from smith was this year's trade deadline.   He has GTD money through 2026 when he will be 34.  If you can get rid of him, do so.  Even for a low draft pick.  He saves 6M by cut/trade, and it's not about 2023 money, it's about not having dead cap in 24/25/26.  I also think he's effective enough that a team would deal for him as a sub rusher/injury replacement.

At this point, you might as well ship every veteran off for draft picks.  Trade everyone else who isn't on their rookie contract.

[skibrett15]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

If you're goal is to be Browns/Lions bad, sure.  But you want the best assets in return for what you're sending out.  If that means paying out his option bonus and spreading out his cap hit over the next 2 years, you do it.  You want the best return on Rodgers.  If a GM asks me to pay his option bonus and instead of receiving a SRP I get a FRP in return, I jump at that.   The Packers are going to be rebuilding for 2-3 years.

Yeah, get the best return.  Idk what his contract means for that, but you're bringing up a lot of hypotheticals, and idk why.  Happy to trade cap space for picks.

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

You're ASSUMING that the Packers will rebound after one bad season in 2023.  The reality is that's probably not going to happen.  It's probably going to be 2-3 years of the Packers sucking before they get back up.  You're looking at 2025 as the time to compete, not 2024.  Three years of high draft picks and what probably is a BUNCH of cap space to spend.

The entire premise of the post is to be contending in 2025/26 and to be bad for 2, possibly 3 years!  Post 2024 means after 2024.  So 2025 and beyond.  Draft picks are cheap compared to veteran players.  IN 25/26/27 you want a lot of rookie deals running simultaneously so that you can be liberal with your FA money.  The way to do that is to get picks in 24/25/26, not necessarily 2023

 

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

At this point, you might as well ship every veteran off for draft picks.  Trade everyone else who isn't on their rookie contract.

I'm glad you get the point of this style rebuild.  Trade people who aren't field effective AND cost effective in the contending window for what you can get.  Is smith that? No, so trade him.

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Your math is off here.  Gary is probably getting a 4 or 5 year deal when he gets his new deal.  He's probably not going to get his extension this offseason, so you're probably talking about midseason 2023 at the very earliest.  Tack on 4 years to his current deal set to expire after the '27 season.  Or '28 season if it's a 5 year deal.  That's 2-3 years of contending with Rashan Gary under contract.  And that's hoping that you can get a pass rusher as good as him in the draft, which is anything but a given.

What i really don't want with Gary is an expensive high cap charge at the end of his deal right when the contending starts happening.  I don't think Gary is special.  He's obviously very good though.  I have no qualms about giving up or keeping Gary either way, but given the insane compensation we saw at the trade deadline for Brian Burns (a comparable but healthy player) I would take that!  It means I get 2 FRPs, AND I don't spend that cap space on Gary.   If there's no sweetheart offer on the table, then just re-sign him and he becomes your first big spend, or don't re-sign him because he hasn't healed well and keep the cap flexibility.

Maybe I just use that cap room to SIGN a FA in 2024/2025, or I use those picks to trade for an established player.  What I don't want to do is spend cap on players earlier than the contending window.  RIght now that's a 2023 extension or a 2024 re-sign.  Meaning he's 100% a market level EDGE in 2025 and 2026, which isn't ideal.

[squire12]

@skibrett15 lays out a really good case here given the tenuous roster and cap situation GB is looking at for 2023.

38 players are under contract for 2023 with -$5.2M based on a league cap number of $225M (per overthecap ... https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space)

here is a look at the roster and free agents

 

38	STARTER					ERFA	RFA	UFA
QB	Aaron Rodgers	Jordan Love				Tipa Galeai	Tyler Davis	Adrain Amos
RB	Aaron Jones	AJ Dillon	Patrick Taylor				Yosh Nijman	Randall Cobb
FB	Josiah Degura						Krys Barnes	Dean Lowry
WR	Christian Watson							Mason Crosby
WR	Romeo Doubs							Allen Lazard
WR	Samori Toure							Robert Tonyan
TE								Jarran Reed
LT	David Bahktiari	Caleb Jones						Marcedes Lewis
LG	Jon Runyan	Luke Tenuta						Johnathan Abram
C	Josh Myers							Sammy Watkins
RG	Royce Newman	Sean Rhyan						Elgton Jenkins
RT	Zach Tom	Rasheed Walker						Dallin Leavitt
								Rudy Ford
								Eric Wilson
LDE	Devonte Wyatt							Keisean Nixon
NT	Kenny Clark	Jonathan Ford
RDE	Tedarrell Slaton
WLB	Preson Smith	Kingsley Enagbare
LILB	De'Vondre Campbell
RILB	Quay Walker	Isaiah McDuffie
SLB	Rashan Gary	Johathan Garvin
LCB	Jaire Alexander
SS	Darnell Savage	Vernon Scott
FS		Tariq Carpenter
RCB	Rasul Douglas	Shemar Jean Charles
Slot CB	Eric Stokes
PK
P	Pat O'Donnell
LS	Jack Coco

[squire12]

based on the above, I am not sure how GB is going to fill holes without further pushing dead cap out into 2024 and 2025

GB does have a projected $49M in cap space for 2024 (based on a league cap space projected number of $256M).  while that feels like a lot, the 2023 rookie draft picks will consume around $9-10M , so pushing more cap from 2023 into 2024 will eventually limit the ability to retain or add veterans to the roster.  

[PackFan13]

On 11/7/2022 at 11:03 AM, Packerraymond said:

No reason for a total gut job until we know what Jordan Love is or isn't. We can probably get him locked up long-term mid-season for 25-30m per, which in early year cap hits won't be much different than a rookie deal. 

Eat Jones, Bakh, Rodgers cap in 2023, draft some skill guys for Love, see where the chips fall.

I just threw up in my mouth. 30 million for a guy that looks bad in pre season. No thanks

[vegas492]

6 hours ago, PackFan13 said:

I just threw up in my mouth. 30 million for a guy that looks bad in pre season. No thanks

Yah, I like Love, but at that price?  Nope.  Nope.  Nope.