Mocks and Simulations

[Bowler1215]

I do lots of simulations on pff a lot.  Quite often I:

Trade with Indy I get 4, 35, 106, 2024 1st and 3rd or 4th

I get Anderson if he falls to me.  I get Carter if Anderson is gone

Players I draft quite a bit:

DE Will McDonald IV

DE Karl Brooks

WR Nathaniel Dell

OC Luke Wypler

CB Tre'vius Hodges-Tomlinson

RB DeWayne McBride

LB DeMarvion Overshown, Dorian Williams and Ivan Pace

DL Moro Ojomo

QB Aidan O'Connell

OG Chandler Zavala

Obviously we need help everywhere.  I usually get 2-3 edge/pass rushers, 2 O-linemen(OC is priority) 2WR  and a QB to serve as a back up

 

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, Bowler1215 said:

I do lots of simulations on pff a lot.  Quite often I:

Trade with Indy I get 4, 35, 106, 2024 1st and 3rd or 4th

I get Anderson if he falls to me.  I get Carter if Anderson is gone

Players I draft quite a bit:

DE Will McDonald IV

DE Karl Brooks

WR Nathaniel Dell

OC Luke Wypler

CB Tre'vius Hodges-Tomlinson

RB DeWayne McBride

LB DeMarvion Overshown, Dorian Williams and Ivan Pace

DL Moro Ojomo

QB Aidan O'Connell

OG Chandler Zavala

Obviously we need help everywhere.  I usually get 2-3 edge/pass rushers, 2 O-linemen(OC is priority) 2WR  and a QB to serve as a back up

 

This is what makes the draft so great. I run dozens of sims a week and other than the LBs you note I take almost none of those guys. 

[dll2000]

12 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I agree. BUT, the risk in this is, some of those teams and maybe all of these teams all only value the same guy high that HOU takes 1st. In that case, you still get your choice of Carter/Anderson, but that may come ant the cost of losing out on significantly more draft capital if you wouldn’t have overplayed your hand.

This whole thing is fascinating. I just wish it could play out faster… 

Same.  

I have a feeling people will be initially disappointed because of over expectation on trade return or scenarios, or not getting their guy.  

Same with FA.

But then usual excitement will kick in as they imagine whatever draft picks or FAs being all pros.

Youtubers will hype them. I will eventually buy in.  

Imagine Jets had 5 first rounders in last two years.  Seattle, Houston and Detroit have and have had a lot of early picks from their mega trade.   Look at Miami from Tunsil and SF trade. Then they made a mega trade of their own.

We are super excited about likely getting an extra 2nd and a future first.   It’s something.  Hopefully more.  We will see. 

[Ty21]

As much as I like Ojomo and Overshown, they were defensive players in a 3-4 at Texas and we run a 4-3. Maybe it’s an easy transition for them as they’re both athletic dudes. Who knows. 

[Ty21]

If you guys ever get tired of my mocks let me know 

don’t judge me for the forced trades. The Texans on pff never have interest in the first pick but we were talking on here about a mere 1 for 1+1 trade. And then they took Stroud so the colts fully would give up the same package they’d give up for 1 to get young imo. 
 

this mock felt more BPA than anything for me, although I did “reach” for Foskey, who I think goes around that point irl. 

[dll2000]

Starting to get an idea of some guys I would like to see targeted by Poles   - drafted at appropriate slots.

This isn't a big board.  Lots of guys not on this list I would draft higher.  Plus I haven't actually studied THAT many players - other than running 10k simulated drafts.   

  Just some guys I have looked at and would target in draft if opportunity arose.  

1.  Jalen Carter - My top overall prospect in draft.  Ironically does have more bust potential than some of guys on my list.   But his ceiling is so insanely good you just can't pass on him if you chose to stand and select a player in top 4.  

Best player amongst great players on GA title teams - see below theory on that under JSN.   He is my clear choice in any Anderson/Carter sweepstakes.   I am team Carter.   

2. Tyree Wilson -  Foot worries me a bit and fact that he is still rehabbing at this point.  Probably nothing.  Prototypical NFL DE.   High Floor, High ceiling guy.  

3. Smith-Njigba -  People say he is slow and limited athletically.   I can see some of that.   

But, I have a draft theory that if you are best or close to best amongst studs on your team in college and those other studs are succeeding in NFL to some extent - you too will succeed.   We'll see how that plays out.  

1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	13					95	1606	16.9	9	95	1606	16.9	9
2	Garrett Wilson	11	4	76	19.0	1	70	1058	15.1	12	74	1134	15.3	13
3	Chris Olave	11					65	936	14.4	13	65	936	14.4 13

That is an insane trio of WRs to have at college level.   We would be doing backflips if that was Bears WR core.  Above is enough evidence for me that I want this guy even if scouts are doubting his athletic ability.  Fields wants him too.  

4. Tuli Tuipulotu DE - Has sufficient size that he can kick inside on pass rush downs.  Ever since Troy P. for Steelers I have always had a kind of favoritism for the high end Polynesian players.  I can't really tell you why.  

I think history says vast majority of this 'historic' edge class will turn out to be not nearly as great as scouts and youtubers are saying.    I think Tuli has a nice floor/ceiling.   I normally don't care about combine numbers - but I am interested in Tuli's case.  

Tuli may get snagged toward end of first round - but I think he is there somewhere in 2nd.  I would take him if available.  Edge rushers are really hard to find and I think Tuli does provide some position versatility.      

5. Deonte Banks - CB - really only CB I have looked at.  Liked what I saw, not elite, but solid, good.  He looks every bit as good as Gordon looked in college IMO. Seems to be a good CB class has there are many guys rated higher than him.  I likely wouldn't let him out of 2nd round.   

6. Henry To'oTo'o - This guy goes really high in some sims and really low in others.   For record, I am not about drafting ILBs real high.     That being said, this guy is a really good football player and we need ILBs at some point in draft or FA - if he falls I am all over this guy.   Reminds me of MN's Eric Kendricks.  Not quite as good as Kendricks UCLA tape was, but not far off.  I wanted Kendricks for Bears.   If we got him in 4th or 5th I would be ecstatic.  Not sure where he is supposed to go, probably 3rd.    (Note other than countless draft sims - I have no idea where these guys are projected to go by Brugler or Kiper or whoever.  Read no in depth draft articles on it yet).  

7.  Darnell Wright - This guy screams 8 year starter at RT or G in this league.  To me this is an easy safe pick to make sometime 2nd (if he falls to 2nd) - I wouldn't be shocked if he went toward end of first.   Some sims have him going in 3rd.  That would shock me.  He would certainly be my top pick in 3rd.   

8.  TE is a weird position to project to NFL.  Really easy to get wrong, few work out to be anything special and others you don't expect emerge from nowhere and are pretty good.   But I would take a chance on Dalton Kincaid, Musgrave, Payne and Whyle at their respective projected spots.   An upside TE is a valuable chess piece in NFL even if most don't work out.   I was watching other players on GA and I will say I think it is a fairly safe bet that current GA TE coming out next year is going to be a stud in NFL.   I wouldn't be shocked if he goes in top 7 next year depending on depth of QB class.   

9. Sydney Brown - Another guy different sims have all over the place - I have seen him go high in 2nd, even end of 1st all the way to 5th round - not sure where he belongs in draft, but I think he can be a good starting S in NFL.  I'd like to see him in a Bears uniform.

10.  RBs - honestly I haven't watched RBs closely yet - but my gut tells me this class is really, really deep and good.  Guys I have very briefly seen do look indeed look good.   Good year to grab your favorite available RB in 4th or 5th.  Maybe two.      

11- Notice not many WRs on list.  Like TE - they are really hard for me to project to NFL.   I leave them to others for most part ever since I liked idea of Bears selecting Kevin White and Miller (not trade but the pick).  I haven't forgiven myself for defending those selections.  

Little guys make me nervous although some are doing well in NFL - see Mooney and D. Smith.   Seems to be a lot of little guys in this draft.   Other guys are just so huge.  If you are 170 and a 330 lb. dense guy hits you at speed on a WR screen - it really hurts.   

Really big guys like Q. Johnson also make me nervous as they can struggle with separation at NFL level - see N'Keal Harry for Bears.    Johnson does seem to have nice quickness though.  I definitely wouldn't pass him very far.  

I like JSN because he seems safer to me for a high bust position.

A lot of people will like a lot of guys - but like Edge - not going to be that many of note at end of day.  

 So I like JSN and Johnson.   I probably wait until 3rd to gamble on other guys.  I just don't love this WR class as a whole.   

I draft R. Rice nearly every time if he is there in 3rd.    The TN WRs seem to have nice athletic upside.   We'll see how it all pans out.

[Sugashane]

10 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

some of that.   

But, I have a draft theory that if you are best or close to best amongst studs on your team in college and those other studs are succeeding in NFL to some extent - you too will succeed.   We'll see how that plays out.  

1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	13					95	1606	16.9	9	95	1606	16.9	9
2	Garrett Wilson	11	4	76	19.0	1	70	1058	15.1	12	74	1134	15.3	13
3	Chris Olave	11					65	936	14.4	13	65	936	14.4 13

That is an insane trio of WRs to have at college level.   We would be doing backflips if that was Bears WR core.  Above is enough evidence for me that I want this guy even if scouts are doubting his athletic ability.  Fields wants him too.  

 

What makes that trio even crazier is that they're the 3-5th best WRs on the team. I'd take Harrison and Egbuka before any of them without even blinking. Harrison may be a top 5 pick for me, and I'm pretty damn nervous about WRs that high. He's an even better prospect than Chase. Just crazy.

[StLunatic88]

32 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

That is an insane trio of WRs to have at college level.   We would be doing backflips if that was Bears WR core.  Above is enough evidence for me that I want this guy even if scouts are doubting his athletic ability.  Fields wants him too.  

I know Fields called him out on who he'd want, but Im curious how much he means that, and how much its an easy answer because its the OSU guy and he knows we arent likely to be around the range to pick him.

Doubt we would ever get a real answer there, but I think JSN barely played with Fields at Ohio St, so its not like a Burrow/Chase situation

[Sugashane]

I'm irrationally happy that PFF has Jake Bobo on their list. I LOVE finding someone before they get much attention.

 

Not saying I expect much of him, but still makes me feel like an elite part-time armchair GM. 😁

[Sugashane]

Tried to get out of the top 10 and then go with some guys I haven't drafted before. Failed on that with Jones and Tippmann but man I just want an OL that physically dominates the LOS so bad.

 

Tried not to get too greedy on the trades. AZ snagged Anderson, ATL got Stroud, and Jets got Levis.

 

 

Van Ness is my DL4, behind Carter, Anderson, and Wilson.

Jones is a mammoth who can really thrive in the run first offense we will run.

Tippmann can be the C or LG. He is physically so close to Jenkins when he was a prospect.

IDK why Brooks is so poorly graded, I like him in a one-gap scheme. I'm putting him opposite of Van Ness as a DE with size.

Dexter will be the 3T or NT depending on how FA turned out.

Chase has the speed that Monty will never have, he and Fields are going to make some big splash plays together.

Mafi is a mauler, I likely put him as the 2024 C and work behind Whitehair this year. He has the anchor for about any size NT but then is flanked by freaky athletes in Jenkins and Tippmann.

Wilson has injury issues, if he was healthy this year he likely in the running to be a top 100 pick. Worth a gamble here.

Stetson has a punchable face that makes my miss Cutler.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

Tried not to get too greedy on the trades.

Considering the draft left us with FOUR first round picks in 2024 this made me legitimately chuckle.

With that said, I’m for it! 

[Ty21]

9 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Stetson has a punchable face that makes my miss Cutler.

It would be good to have a mentor like him for Fields, even though he had that weird alcohol incident. 

[Sugashane]

57 minutes ago, Ty21 said:

It would be good to have a mentor like him for Fields, even though he had that weird alcohol incident. 

I think he and Velus can be the cagey vets this team needs.

8 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Considering the draft left us with FOUR first round picks in 2024 this made me legitimately chuckle.

With that said, I’m for it! 

I think you mean "with only four"   😁  Glad someone caught the tongue-in-cheek comment   lol

IDK what the actual comp would be so future first is the default. What would the general rule be for the trade value for future picks? I remember a bunch of people saying it is valued a round lower but we would see a lot of people trading 2nd-4th round picks today for 1st-3rd rounders next year if that were the case. Anyone know what could be used to make these trades more realistic?

[HuskieBear]

Quick mock double trade down, but who do we pick?

Snag McGlinchey, Jones, Okereke in FA

Trade 1.1 to IND for 1.4, 2.35, 4.106, 2024 1st and 2nd (this seems like a lot, i doubt we get that much, but could just take off the future 2nd.

1.1 - Indy - QB Bryce Young

1.2 - Hou - QB CJ Stroud

1.3 - AZ - OLB Will Anderson

Trade 1.4 to CAR, who has a new offensive head coach and is tired of retreads. Rumor is they've been enamored with Levis for over a year and trade 1.9, 2.39, and 2024 2nd

1.4 - CAR - QB Will Levis

1.5 - SEA - DT Jalen Carter (thrilled to see him on the board, not concerned with arrest)

1.6 - DET - QB Anthony Richardson

DET has another pick at 18 and can grab another position later, but see this as a chance to grab a QB to sit behind Goff as they think (hope) they won't be picking this high again for a while. Same consideration i gave to SEA, but carter was too good for them to pass

1.7 - LV - DL Tyree Wilson

Raiders grab a guy like Jimmy G in FA, but still gave up the most leads last year. Getting a guy opposite Crosby should help them maintain those leads and help the back-end

1.8 - ATL - OL Peter Skoronski

ATL can do a lot of different things here, but i think they go the PHI model and get the bones in place before they go QB, opting to ride with Ridder for another season. Skoronski immediately slots into LG and could be LT of future when Matthews retires. Murphy was another hought

1.9 - CHI - CB Devon Witherspoon (???)

Players on board: DE Murphy, DE LVN, OT Johnson, OT Jones, DT Bresee, CB Gonzalez, CB Witherspoon, CB Porter Jr., WR Johnston, WR JSN, WR Addison

I think they let it ride with Braxton at LT and hope he keeps developing, so that takes off the OTs. Bresee doesn't seem like a fit, and we "got" Jones in FA, so he gone. I don't ~feel~ like any of the WR are worth the pick, plus i would like to see us swing a trade for a vet WR with our extra draft capital that we got for moving down (DHop, Evans, Allen). 

My top picks would be LVN and Witherspoon. Our need for DE is obvious and LVN seems to be a physical dude that is scratching the surface of what he can do. However, I like the idea of Witherspoon as a plug and play corner, moving Gordon to nickel (for those keeping track at home, that fills out flus's favorite positions [Jones/3T, Gordon/Nickel, Okereke/WLB]). Witherspoon fits flus's HIIT philosophy even though he might not be as athletically gifted as Gonzalez. Then circle back with our 3 second round picks and go G/C/WR/DL 

2.35 - CHI - G Steve Avila

plug and play LG or backup if we keep CW65

2.39 - CHI - DE Felix Uzomah

could see this being someone like Zach Harrison after he blows up the combine and people start remembering the big dude theory. either way, new starting DE

2.54 - CHI - C Joe Tippmann

both Tippmann and JMS were on the board here. I went with Tippmann's athleticism over JMS rock-steady presence. compete with Patrick for starting C gig

I then threw a 3.64 at AZ for DHop and a 5th. Could trade back here again and send a lower 3rd or gather more picks.

Offense

Mooney    Claypool    Jones   Whitehair/Avila   Patrick/Tippmann   Jenkins   McGlinchey   Kmet   Hopkins

                                                                                     Fields

                                                                                     Herbert/4th rounder

Defense

                                                    FAU       Jones     Jones/FA     Gipson

                                       Adams/FA/Rookie      Sanborn        Okoreke

                             Witherspoon      Gordon      Brisker        EJax        Johnson

 

[HuskieBear]

did another quick one and i didn't ~hate~ it. no FA tho, so these are really worthless until that's done

trade with indy (1.1 for 1.4, 2.35, 3.79, 4.106, 5.140, 2024 1st [pretty unrealistic but PFF took it]) then traded again with atl (1.4 for 1.8, 2.44, 3.75, 2024 2nd).

1.8 - LVN DE

2.35 - Aton Harrison OT

2.44 - Steve Avila OG

2.54 - Adetomiwa Adebawore DE

3.64 - Joe Tippmann OC

3.75 - Garrett Williams CB

3.79 - Keenu Benton DT

4.103 - Sam LaPorta TE

4.106 - DeMarvion Overshown LB

4.134 - Michael Wilson WR

5.137 - Kark Brooks DE

5.140 - Tank Bigsby RB

5.150 - Aiden O'Connell QB