The 2023 Offseason Thread

[downundermike]

Just now, Jroc04 said:

Just because Howie’s hit rate isn’t good doesn’t mean he gets lucky when he hits. He just happens to be subpar at drafting. It doesn’t correlate. 
 

As much as you dislike him or his GMing, he’s still a professional. Are we doubting Howie doesn’t put in his work and his staff just loafed it that year or something? The logic doesn’t make sense. Just like every other GM in the league, they’re going to have WTF years. 

They do the work, but sometimes the work is flawed as a whole.

2021 was scouted and the board was put together very will. I can make that determination based on getting multiple year 1 starters and quality depth players.

2020 was scouted and the board was put together poorly.  I can make that determination on the first pick being an epic bust, and the only meaningful depth we got was Driscoll and Watkins.  Based on the whole of the class being extremely underwhelming, they got LUCKY with the Hurts pick, and based on the fact that they had a trade in place for Russel Wilson before last years draft, they were not sold going into last season.  

There is absolutely nothing that transpired from the time Hurts was drafted until his play last season that tells anyone that the Eagles were sold on Hurts from day 1, hence, you can factually say they got lucky with the pick.

[Jroc04]

10 minutes ago, Broadway Joe said:

You guys always have to make it about bashing or hating on, “all good picks are luck”. Has to be black or white.

I already said why Smitty wasn’t a lucky pick and a good one and why Hurts was a lucky one.

We just saw how much Howie himself offered Seattle for Russell Wilson with Hurts obviously part of the deal and Wilson turned us down. It ended up working great for us and not for him. How is that not luck?

That doesn’t mean all his moves are lucky nor that he doesn’t do good things. But we’re talking about this particular pick. 
 

Every team has their lucky breaks, it happens all the time. Even Bill Bellichick has.

If it’s true, how do we even know that Hurts doesn’t fail in Seattle or Wilson doesn’t succeed in Philly? There’s no way to tell. 
 

And what does trade compensation and the assumed success/fail of a said fantasy trade have anything to do with the actual pick? 
 

The idea of Hurts being a lucky pick for the Eagles is a singular idea. 

[Jroc04]

12 minutes ago, downundermike said:

They do the work, but sometimes the work is flawed as a whole.

2021 was scouted and the board was put together very will. I can make that determination based on getting multiple year 1 starters and quality depth players.

2020 was scouted and the board was put together poorly.  I can make that determination on the first pick being an epic bust, and the only meaningful depth we got was Driscoll and Watkins.  Based on the whole of the class being extremely underwhelming, they got LUCKY with the Hurts pick, and based on the fact that they had a trade in place for Russel Wilson before last years draft, they were not sold going into last season.  

There is absolutely nothing that transpired from the time Hurts was drafted until his play last season that tells anyone that the Eagles were sold on Hurts from day 1, hence, you can factually say they got lucky with the pick.

You’re just citing a success/fail rate. They weren’t throwing darts at a board. They evaluated and made a board. Apparently, Hurts was high enough on the Eagles board (more than everyone assumingely) to get drafted in the 2nd round. He wasn’t some project player out of some Div II drafted in the 7th.  How do you consider that luck? And even so, every player they draft would have a draft grade. And in that draft grade encompasses a skill rating, floor and ceiling, coachability, and whatever evaluation each particular team does for their picks. They put Hurts through that eval and they marked him a second round pick. And what they did was correct. It wasn’t lucky. They were just right with their determination. Just because they were wrong with other picks that year doesn’t mean Hurts was lucky. It just means their evaluations aren’t perfect. LIKE EVERY OTHER GM EVERRRRRRR. Don’t get me wrong, Howie has faults. Drafting is one of his lesser skills. It isn’t good. His record isn’t good in that department. Some can say it’s even poor. But calling his good picks luck undermines the actual little bit of skill he has there and also the whole drafting and scouting work they do. It’s just blatantly false. 

[Nabbs4u]

1 hour ago, Jroc04 said:

They put Hurts through that eval and they marked him a second round pick. And what they did was correct. It wasn’t lucky. They were just right with their determination. Just because they were wrong with other picks that year doesn’t mean Hurts was lucky. It just means their evaluations aren’t perfect

This. Almost every expert and GM at that time before pick #53 didn't have Jalen rated as a 2nd rd pick. The Eagles FO and scouting staff did. Not giving credit for said evaluation because they "We're Right" is absurd!

Was Howie lucky thier evaluation of Dallas Goedert panned out? Landon Dickerson? Avonte Maddox?

If you're going to blast him for disastrous busts like Reagor, even Dillard becuase they happen to be 1st rd picks, not giving credit or acting as though every other pick afterwards was just blind luck if successful becuase Howie sucks, is a joke.

FACTS ARE: only 50% of 1st rd picks succeed in the NFL. Every single rd that follows, those % drop!

"According to the analysis, which was conducted by sports data firm, Sportradar, only 44% of first-round draft picks from 2011 to 2020 have signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.Apr 17, 2023"

[AZ_Eaglesfan]

2 hours ago, Jroc04 said:

If it’s true, how do we even know that Hurts doesn’t fail in Seattle or Wilson doesn’t succeed in Philly? There’s no way to tell. 
 

And what does trade compensation and the assumed success/fail of a said fantasy trade have anything to do with the actual pick? 
 

The idea of Hurts being a lucky pick for the Eagles is a singular idea. 

Yeah I don't see the correlation here... how are we going from talking about getting lucky we drafted Hurts to somehow using hypothetical trades that never happened years later as an argument to backup the idea that we were lucky to have drafted him....?

NFL fans often forget just how little we really know about these situations/players compared to teams. There could be a hundred different reasons a guy succeeds or fails in the NFL. Yes there is definitely luck involved in the draft, but I haven't seen a single convincing argument that the Hurts pick was just "lucky". It was no more lucky or unlucky than any other draft pick. They did their evaluation and picked the guy at the top of their board. 

[Jroc04]

1 hour ago, AZ_Eaglesfan said:

Yeah I don't see the correlation here... how are we going from talking about getting lucky we drafted Hurts to somehow using hypothetical trades that never happened years later as an argument to backup the idea that we were lucky to have drafted him....?

NFL fans often forget just how little we really know about these situations/players compared to teams. There could be a hundred different reasons a guy succeeds or fails in the NFL. Yes there is definitely luck involved in the draft, but I haven't seen a single convincing argument that the Hurts pick was just "lucky". It was no more lucky or unlucky than any other draft pick. They did their evaluation and picked the guy at the top of their board. 

Yea I don’t understand. And it’s hard for me to separate the anti-Howie sentiment from their posts. Nothing ever seems objective.
 

But it’s like,

“Hey, why’d you draft that guy?”

“I liked the color of his arm bands.”

“Man, you got lucky he turned out.”

-Or-

“Hey, why’d you draft that guy?”

“He’s a competitor, natural leader and a great athlete.”

“Aren’t you worried about his arm ability?”

“It’s a bit concerning but I think it’s correctable. I think he’s got great potential.”

“Oh, so you’re going to take him in the 1st?”

“No. We like him. He’s got potential. But he’s not as polished as we’d like him to be. There’s other prospects we like in the first. Our scouting has us convinced he’ll last until the second. We can really maximize his value there.”

“Oh, sounds like you guys did your homework.”

“Yea, with our process we believe we make our own luck.” 
 

Maybe the Eagles FO. Maybe not. 

 

[EaglesFlySBChampsHigh]

5 hours ago, Broadway Joe said:

You guys always have to make it about bashing or hating on, “all good picks are luck”. Has to be black or white.

I already said why Smitty wasn’t a lucky pick and a good one and why Hurts was a lucky one.

We just saw how much Howie himself offered Seattle for Russell Wilson with Hurts obviously part of the deal and Wilson turned us down. It ended up working great for us and not for him. How is that not luck?

That doesn’t mean all his moves are lucky nor that he doesn’t do good things. But we’re talking about this particular pick. 
 

Every team has their lucky breaks, it happens all the time. Even Bill Bellichick has.

We don't even know if that trade offer was truly real. No one's gonna really say it regardless. They probably checked in like Howie does on probably ever single player available. Doesn't mean he sent a full out offer. Idc what the article says unless it comes from the Seattle gm or Howie. Some writer doesn't know squat. 

To pin that on someone seems ridiculous. No just you. A few others posted it too. 

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by EaglesFlySBChampsHigh

[UndyTaker]

lucky

[downundermike]

On 6/10/2023 at 12:38 PM, EaglesFlySBChampsHigh said:

Doesn't mean he sent a full out offer. Idc what the article says unless it comes from the Seattle gm or Howie.

You are never going to get that from either, and a very convenient angle to play "idc what the article says"

Mike Salk who is one of the most plugged in guys to the Seahawks would know.  He has current players on his show all the time, and has the Hawks GM John Schneider on every couple of weeks.

[EaglesFlySBChampsHigh]

On 6/12/2023 at 3:33 PM, downundermike said:

You are never going to get that from either, and a very convenient angle to play "idc what the article says"

Mike Salk who is one of the most plugged in guys to the Seahawks would know.  He has current players on his show all the time, and has the Hawks GM John Schneider on every couple of weeks.

Still means little. I'm sure howie did call and maybe even snooped around some. He owed it to the eagles organization to check every angle to make sure. Was there truly an offer... No one knows except a handful of people and I'm positive this guy doesn't know the full extent or offer if there was one. Even if there was it could've been a terrible offer could've been a great offer. No one will know that part so it's still pointless to use that against Howie. 

This is reaching at this point to just to say look at Howie. We know some of you hate him and every thing he does sucks. Except when he hits the "lucky picks". He can do no right most times

 

[Nabbs4u]

Who cares if a deal was offered, it wasn't excepted. Thankfully. 

Wilson was not only a SB winning QB but a 9x PB on a HOF type pace. Hurts until last year was an unknown with "potential". They should of kicked the tires.

That said, I really hope Howie gets lucky with Nakobe Dean, Cam Jurgens, Tyler Steen, Sidney Brown and fingers crossed Nolan Smith.

Odds say, only 2 of 6 will pan out. Anything more is just blind dumb luck.

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Nabbs4u

[EaglesFlySBChampsHigh]

14 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Who cares if a deal was offered, it wasn't excepted. Thankfully. 

Wilson was not only a SB winning QB but a 9x PB on a HOF type pace. Hurts until last year was an unknown. They should of kicked the tires.

That said, I really hope Howie gets lucky with Nakobe Dean, Cam Jurgens, Tyler Steen, Sidney Brown and fingers crossed Nolan Smith.

Odds say, only 2 of 6 will pan out. Anything more is just blind dumb luck.

 

I don't care. Was just saying it's just another odd thing the howie haters are gonna use against him. As soon as I saw the article I knew they were gonna come running out the woods to bash him.

I agree tho

[downundermike]

You guys can twist it all you want.  Based on the facts, the Hurts pick was more luck than skill.  

1.  The rest of that draft class was a disaster, Reagor an epic bust, 3rd round project (Taylor) who is a special teamer at best.  When you look at the entirety of the class, the entire plan was flawed based on who they selected, and Hurts being the only pick that worked out tells me they got lucky.

2.  The fact that they were moving first round picks back a year, and still trying to trade for other QB's tells you the Eagles were still not sold on Hurts as the answer.  The Eagles did not even believe they got a franchise QB until the 2022 season unfolded.

Looking at the following draft, the Eagles obviously changed their approach and got two impact players in Smitty and Dickerson.  2022 and 2023 drafts are still TBD.  If Jordan Davis turns into a rotational run stopper, then that is a bad pick.  We still have no idea what we have in the rest of the 2022 class.

2023 looks great on paper, but these guys now have to go out and do it.

 

[Danger]

1 hour ago, downundermike said:

You guys can twist it all you want.  Based on the facts, the Hurts pick was more luck than skill.  

1.  The rest of that draft class was a disaster, Reagor an epic bust, 3rd round project (Taylor) who is a special teamer at best.  When you look at the entirety of the class, the entire plan was flawed based on who they selected, and Hurts being the only pick that worked out tells me they got lucky.

2.  The fact that they were moving first round picks back a year, and still trying to trade for other QB's tells you the Eagles were still not sold on Hurts as the answer.  The Eagles did not even believe they got a franchise QB until the 2022 season unfolded.

Looking at the following draft, the Eagles obviously changed their approach and got two impact players in Smitty and Dickerson.  2022 and 2023 drafts are still TBD.  If Jordan Davis turns into a rotational run stopper, then that is a bad pick.  We still have no idea what we have in the rest of the 2022 class.

2023 looks great on paper, but these guys now have to go out and do it.

 

1. Doug

2. Does this matter at this point? Captain hindsight.

The approach changed because Howie takes a huge input from the coaching staff. Look at the Chip Kelly regime, the Doug Regime, and then the time with Sirianni at the time. Drafting tendencies are obvious.

[downundermike]

14 hours ago, EaglesFlySBChampsHigh said:

Still means little. I'm sure howie did call and maybe even snooped around some. He owed it to the eagles organization to check every angle to make sure. Was there truly an offer... No one knows except a handful of people and I'm positive this guy doesn't know the full extent or offer if there was one. Even if there was it could've been a terrible offer could've been a great offer. No one will know that part so it's still pointless to use that against Howie. 

This is reaching at this point to just to say look at Howie. We know some of you hate him and every thing he does sucks. Except when he hits the "lucky picks". He can do no right most times

 

Wilson’s personal QB coach also said Russ turned down the Eagles and Commanders deals sometime around the combine

But it's not Howie or Schneider, so it doesn't count 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10078041-nfl-rumors-russell-wilson-declined-trades-to-eagles-commanders-before-broncos-deal

 

Quote

Quarterback coach Jake Heaps also previously said in 2022 during an appearance on KOA News Talk Sports that Wilson had declined deals to both the Eagles and Washington Commanders.

"He turned down the Washington [Commanders] offer. He turned down an offer from Philly during the Combine. And the Denver situation was the clear-cut, number one choice for him going into all these other teams."

 

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by downundermike