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Where would Trey Lance rank as a bust if he disappoints next season?


biggie.

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I think he's arguably  the biggest bust in NFL history given what they paid to go get him. I don't even think it's that outlandish of a take, tbh. At least Washington got a great rookie season from RG3 (they did ultimately give up the #2 pick in 2014 which is a pretty big deal compared to the 49ers giving up picks 29 and 30 or whatever it is, so I could get an argument that outweighs the one good year that they got from RG3). 

Russell, Leaf...I mean, yeah, they are big busts, but those teams didn't give up more than the initial picks used to select them (well, back then you had the money, but I don't think that it's that big of a deal when evaluating a bust) 

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It's hard for me to really evaluate him as some standout bust when there's been so many bad high 1st round QB's lately, especially Darnold and Zach Wilson. However, I think the fact that he would be an objective bust in a Kyle Shanahan offense that is pretty damn easy for QB's to succeed in kind of weighs heavily, whereas some of the other guys have had bad coaching/schemes/etc. around them.

That being said, he would still be an all-time bust given how much the Niners gave up for him, the system he plays in, and how theoretically quickly he busted.

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3 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

 

That being said, he would still be an all-time bust given how much the Niners gave up for him, the system he plays in, and how theoretically quickly he busted.

Yeah, I'm only evaluating based on the cost to go get him.

Lance may actually end up being a pretty decent QB when all is said and done, though I think the chances of that happening for SF specifically are much lower than that happening for him in general. 

I mean at this point this is Brock Purdy's team, so where does Lance go from here for SF? He doesn't control his own destiny any more. He needs Purdy's injury to carry through the regular season to get starts and steal the job back, or he needs Purdy to fall apart...and I'll be honest, given Purdy's play style and the weapons he's surrounded with, I think that is going to be very difficult. Besides the TD rate, nothing he really did last year was unsustainable. 

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Depends because of 

 

1. If you go by common sentiment, everyone knew he was a big project anyways, so it’s not surprising. He was also the third QB taken in the draft. 
 

2. If you go by assets given up, then it’s much higher. 
 

But it depends on how you look at it. Lance busting wouldn’t really be much of a surprise 

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3 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

His whole career arc has been weird but after seeing how much success Purdy just had I don’t think you can write Lance off yet.

The problem for Lance is that he's going to be a backup again most likely without external forces helping him out. 

He sits another year, they trade him next off season for like a second or third round pick. That team is no longer subject to the sunk cost fallacy...if he struggles, which he will because he's insanely inexperienced, they are just going to draft his replacement and move on. He's not going to have a long leash with his new team. So he comes out and does well right away, or his career is pretty much already spiraling now. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Forge said:

The problem for Lance is that he's going to be a backup again most likely without external forces helping him out. 

He sits another year, they trade him next off season for like a second or third round pick. That team is no longer subject to the sunk cost fallacy...if he struggles, which he will because he's insanely inexperienced, they are just going to draft his replacement and move on. He's not going to have a long leash with his new team. So he comes out and does well right away, or his career is pretty much already spiraling now. 

 

Why is he most likely going to be the backup? Won’t he have a chance to start?

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Just now, NYRaider said:

Why is he most likely going to be the backup? Won’t he have a chance to start?

I don't know why he would. You're not going to value what he does in camp over what Purdy has done in real games. 

He needs to get into real games, perform well, and steal the job back. But I don't know how he gets into real games without help. Purdy is expected to be back sometime around camp and won't need a ramp up time. 

He's really hoping Purdy's injury is worse than it has been stated so far or he's hoping that the injury really wrecks Purdy's play (which is possible). 

But everything points to this being Purdy's team. 

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If he doesn't win the starting job next year, the team probably either trades him before the deadline to pick up his fifth year option(unless he actually plays and is bad, I could see a team willing to take a flier on him for a mid round pick), and his new team gives him the chance to compete for a starting job. Can't see him going to any teams with better coaching or weapons, and the lack of playing time will still be a problem, so unfortunately I think he continues to struggle with consistency and adjusting to the NFL, though also continues to show flashes of how good he can be, and eventually bounces around as a journeyman backup/fringe starter for the next few years of his career. Fortunately, he's still only 23 next season, and with more playing time over the years I could see him having a Geno-like breakout later in his career in the right system and supporting cast. Even if he's a bust right now he's still pretty physically talented and seems like a good locker room guy, and those plus his draft pedigree should get a few contracts for him for a while.

Edited by jonnguy2015
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If he busts, it's near the top. 

They gave up a lot for him and he was decidedly a project. 

Other busts like Darnold at least had some positives people thought for a minute may be improved upon with time, only they apparently peaked in college. 

Lance has contributed next to nothing for SF, couldn't lock the job down on merits, and couldn't stay on the field. 

Idk if it would be the worst bust ever since he seems like a good dude being knocked backwards due to injury as opposed to someone just not doing due diligence on a turd (Jamarcus Russell), but it would rank up there. 

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19 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

If he busts, it's near the top. 

They gave up a lot for him and he was decidedly a project. 

Other busts like Darnold at least had some positives people thought for a minute may be improved upon with time, only they apparently peaked in college. 

Lance has contributed next to nothing for SF, couldn't lock the job down on merits, and couldn't stay on the field. 

Idk if it would be the worst bust ever since he seems like a good dude being knocked backwards due to injury as opposed to someone just not doing due diligence on a turd (Jamarcus Russell), but it would rank up there. 

He did play pretty well in the Texans game in 2021, which ended up being vital to making the playoffs, though I think anyone who's better than Josh Johnson probably wins that game too

Edited by jonnguy2015
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