Forge Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, INbengalfan said: absolutely agree. besides, what they paid to get him has literally no bearing on how little he has been on the field due to injuries and being drafted as a project anyway. Lots of players have busted due to injuries. In ten years, no one but 49er fans will even remember his name if he doesn't turn it around soon. Injury busts are still busts (Ki-jana carter is still a bust) and I don't think that being a project gets you a release from being labeled a bust. Once you have been selected, you're a bust based on your productivity in relation to your draft spot imo and any "yeah but" is just an excuse that allows us to not be as angry about it or feel better about the player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superduperman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 hours ago, ET80 said: Megatron, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Darrelle Revis, Patrick Willis - I get that hindsight is 20/20, but these were practically no-brainers at the time. To be fair, Revis or Willis wouldn't have been in the running for first overall 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 19 hours ago, Broncofan said: Would Lance rank as a bust if he doesn't end up as the starter? Obv yes. Biggest bust? Eh, not even close. The SF picks given up were 1.29 in 2022 & 1.29 in 2023. Kudos to MIA for flipping 1.29 in a package to get Tyreek Hill, but from a pure value perspective, 1.12 & 2 picks at the 30 range isn't this massive haul for a move to 1.3. Honestly, there are countless other busts at the top - Jamarcus Russell at 1.1 being the obvious one. Don't get me wrong, if Lance isn't their QB, of course it's a bust. But there's a fair amount of hyperbole with the draft package - the late seeding of where it landed is why future 1sts are often devalued. If this was Russell Wilson to DEN, then the flip side is that trading 1.10 2022 & 1.05 2023 really hurts (before you get to the 2nd rd picks). But not all 1sts are created equal. Frankly, trading a 1.05 away is 10x worse than trading away 2 picks in the 30 range and a 3rd round rounder to move up from 1.12 to 1.3. Yeah, they didn't lose the trade value wise as much as people probably thought at first blush (Miami basically obtained two third round picks in excess value), but that is somewhat good fortune and playing results (those picks could have been much higher, especially when Brock Purdy happened...we have seen the bottom fall out multiple times in these picks getting traded lately - Cleveland got a top 5 pick from Houston for Watson trade. Miami got a top 3 pick for the Tunsil trade. Seattle is gave up a top 10 pick for the Adams trade and then got a top 5 pick back from Denver for Wilson. The Giants got a top 7 pick for the Fields trade up) and the opportunity cost is pretty brutal. That's really going to strain their depth in coming years without some really good luck in late drafting (especially after the CMC trade as well). So it's not just about the quantified trade value of the two selections that were ultimately given up. They wasted three first round picks on him. That's a lot of team building value leaving the building in that scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broadway Joe Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Forge said: Injury busts are still busts (Ki-jana carter is still a bust) and I don't think that being a project gets you a release from being bust. Once you have been selected, you're a bust based on your productivity in relation to your draft spot imo and any "yeah but" is just an excuse. Couldn't agree more. I often see the injury as being an excuse for players sucking as if that gives them a pass. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Forge said: Yeah, they didn't lose the trade value wise as much as people probably thought at first blush (Miami basically obtained two third round picks in excess value), but that is somewhat good fortune and playing results (those picks could have been much higher, especially when Brock Purdy happened...we have seen the bottom fall out multiple times in these picks getting traded lately - Cleveland got a top 5 pick from Houston for Watson trade. Miami got a top 3 pick for the Tunsil trade. Seattle is gave up a top 10 pick for the Adams trade and then got a top 5 pick back from Denver for Wilson. The Giants got a top 7 pick for the Fields trade up) and the opportunity cost is pretty brutal. That's really going to strain their depth in coming years without some really good luck in late drafting (especially after the CMC trade as well). So it's not just about the quantified trade value of the two selections that were ultimately given up. They wasted three first round picks on him. That's a lot of team building value leaving the building in that scenario. Yup, zero doubt if Lance isn't their starter, it's a bust. But as the Q is where it ranks, it's tough, but it's far from the biggest. Anytime you whiff on a top 5 pick, though, it's an org killer. This isn't the first, won't be the last. It doesn't disqualify him - but the fact he's only had 2+ games as starter though, offers the path he may not even fall in the bust category - but he has to be the starter for that discussion to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 33 minutes ago, Superduperman said: To be fair, Revis or Willis wouldn't have been in the running for first overall I could see a universe where both were dark horses - moreso Revis than Willis given positional value. But even then, trading down to a team wanting Thomas/Peterson/Megatron should have been investigated at the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, ET80 said: I could see a universe where both were dark horses - moreso Revis than Willis given positional value. But even then, trading down to a team wanting Thomas/Peterson/Megatron should have been investigated at the least. Ironically Phil Savage for the Browns wanted to TRADE UP FOR JAMARCUS RUSSELL and couldn't make it happen, so they "settled" for their next guy at #3 in Joe Thomas. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, MWil23 said: Ironically Phil Savage for the Browns wanted to TRADE UP FOR JAMARCUS RUSSELL and couldn't make it happen, so they "settled" for their next guy at #3 in Joe Thomas. I always like stories like that. The Dak prescott selection was another. Dallas famously wanted Paxton Lynch, I believe...couldn't get him...then fell back to Connor Cook and couldn't get him either...so they settled for Dak 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INbengalfan Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Forge said: Injury busts are still busts (Ki-jana carter is still a bust) and I don't think that being a project gets you a release from being labeled a bust. Once you have been selected, you're a bust based on your productivity in relation to your draft spot imo and any "yeah but" is just an excuse that allows us to not be as angry about it or feel better about the player. I don't disagree. Buty using the draft capitol in the equation shouldn't be weighed in my opinion. KiJana Carter is an injury bust, but more of an injury bust because we traded up to get him is all I'm saying. But I do think it should take longer to label a guy a bust if everyone thought they were a developmental project. Injuries muddy that water, as it clearly has hindered his development. Edited February 16, 2023 by INbengalfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, INbengalfan said: I don't disagree. Buty using the draft capitol in the equation shouldn't be weighed in my opinion. KiJana Carter is an injury bust, but more of an injury bust because we traded up to get him is all I'm saying How do you not factor in the draft capital when being a bust is determined by their production versus the draft capital invested? That's the reason we weigh higher selections as busts. Nobody is saying Jalen Hurd is one of the biggest busts in NFL history as a third round pick. But if you have Jalen Hurd going 3rd overall he is. Because the amount of capital invested in him (in the form of the draft slot). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INbengalfan Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Forge said: How do you not factor in the draft capital when being a bust is determined by their production versus the draft capital invested? That's the reason we weigh higher selections as busts. Nobody is saying Jalen Hurd is one of the biggest busts in NFL history as a third round pick. But if you have Jalen Hurd going 3rd overall he is. Because the amount of capital invested in him (in the form of the draft slot). We just differ. Is a player that was overdrafted more of a bust? In many ways, yes. But that's a team that drafted him issue, not on field performance. Our latest example is Drew Sample. Was he worth a second round pick? No. But he isn't a bust because he was overdrafted. he's a minor bust because he doesn't perform. And similar to Lance, he was hurt all year and didn't take any steps forward. He's a bust for any round really. Just not a glaring one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, INbengalfan said: We just differ. Is a player that was overdrafted more of a bust? In many ways, yes. But that's a team that drafted him issue, not on field performance. Our latest example is Drew Sample. Was he worth a second round pick? No. But he isn't a bust because he was overdrafted. he's a minor bust because he doesn't perform. And similar to Lance, he was hurt all year and didn't take any steps forward. He's a bust for any round really. Just not a glaring one. This is such a weird take to me. You're basically saying that there is no difference in your evaluation of a bust if they were taken 51st or 3rd overall it seems like. A bust is a bust is a bust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 43 minutes ago, Forge said: I always like stories like that. The Dak prescott selection was another. Dallas famously wanted Paxton Lynch, I believe...couldn't get him...then fell back to Connor Cook and couldn't get him either...so they settled for Dak If not for JFF, Dak would probably be a Brown too. The DUI pre-draft made him a scratch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INbengalfan Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 18 minutes ago, Forge said: This is such a weird take to me. You're basically saying that there is no difference in your evaluation of a bust if they were taken 51st or 3rd overall it seems like. A bust is a bust is a bust. Like I said, I see it differently. I understand why people factor it in. Was JaMarcus Russell a bust? Yes, because he absolutely stunk. People just remember him way more because he was the first overall pick. If he had been picked in the sixth round, he still stunk. But nobody would talk about it as it was a low investment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluhartz Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, MWil23 said: Ironically Phil Savage for the Browns wanted to TRADE UP FOR JAMARCUS RUSSELL and couldn't make it happen, so they "settled" for their next guy at #3 in Joe Thomas. holy crap!! I mean the Browns never won anything with him, but at least they had a HOF player that was a great pro and seemed like a good dude. (And I hate the Browns) But at least they dodged the bullet of Russell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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