What should the Giants do?

[THE DUKE]

It'd be pure insanity to give Daniel Jones a multi-year, $45 million a year deal, right?  Isn't the whole thing about Daboll being the QB whisperer for that team?  Wouldn't it make more sense to take another swing with a rookie QB on a 5 year deal?

[minutemancl]

I think before you start thinking about you would do as GM, you have to understand what Daniel Jones's market value is and you have to understand the Giants cap situation. The franchise tag for QBs is $32 million this year. The Giants will have around $45 million in cap space before resigning any of their players.

Daniel Jones is not going to make $45 million a year. He can ask for that, and he will, but no player gets what they ask for. To sign Daniel Jones, this goes for the Giants or any other team, it will most likely take $32-39 million AAV. That ends up being about 14-17% of the 2023 salary cap. If you're ok with that, and you like him as a player and believe he has an upwards trajectory, then the decision is easy. Most people, I'd imagine, are either ok with that or recoil at the thought of it, so the decision should be easy either way.

I think most people would recoil at that, so the questions you have to consider are 1. Why? and 2. What is the alternative?

For 1, the obvious reason is that he was bad prior to this year, and then even this year, there were (much smaller, but still) holes in his game. The biggest of these is that he didn't throw deep often at all. He wasn't really asked to win the game with his arm. I think there is a real question of if that was because of him, or by design. And nobody would know the answer to that better than Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll. If the offense was truly limited because they didn't trust DJ enough, then it is very clear you do not resign him. However, the offensive talent this year was horrendous. Marcus Johnson started 7 games at WR1. The interior OL and RT were porous. Maybe a low ADOT was the plan, and if so, you feel more confident in DJ.

For 2, the Giants are picking at 25 with a ton of holes on the roster, so a trade up for Richardson/Young/Stroud/Levis isn't on the table. In free agency, do you like any of the other available QBs, on open market deals, better than Daniel Jones- money and/or talent wise? Do you like a mid-late round QB project enough to roll with Tyrod Taylor as the starter this year?

I've looked a lot, and I don't really see a better alternative for this upcoming year to resigning or tagging Daniel Jones. I also do think he is on an upwards trajectory, this is easily the best coaching staff he's ever had, he'll have continuity there for the first time ever, and he offers a lot as a mobile QB. I also don't think the $32-39 million AAV contract he'll get is prohibitively expensive.

I would resign Daniel Jones to even a $39 million AAV contract, with 1 caveat- whatever deal he gets, I need to be able to get out of it mostly clean in 2-3 years. That aspect is way more important to me than the actual money. I would be interested in signing him to a Jimmy Garoppolo 2018-esque contract, where I bite the bullet early. That is truly the best way to handle signing a QB who is not in that top-10 tier.

There is a middle tier of QBs, Daniel Jones is firmly in it right now, and I think there is value in those guys, so you do have to pay them. I think the contract structure is more important than the money.

[Danger]

If I'm the Giants GM, I laugh at him and his agent the moment they bring up that kind of number and tell him "Sign the Franchise Tag, or get out of my office."

[Dr A W Niloc]

1 hour ago, THE DUKE said:

It'd be pure insanity to give Daniel Jones a multi-year, $45 million a year deal, right?  Isn't the whole thing about Daboll being the QB whisperer for that team?  Wouldn't it make more sense to take another swing with a rookie QB on a 5 year deal?

^This is the problem.  Everyone has seen Daniel Jones with and without Brian Daboll.  He's barely worth eight digits, let alone $32M.  Offer him a generous 2-year $20M contract, give him time to test his market value (which is nil if he doesn't come as a package deal with Daboll) elsewhere, and pick up someone on April 29th.

Those who believe this is underestimating DanJo's value are underestimating that of a QB whisperer.  By a factor approaching infinity.

[THE DUKE]

I think i'd lean towards a non-exclusive franchise tag.  If some moron wants to give them two firsts for Daniel Jones, then eureka.  Worst case scenario you have him on a 1 year deal.

If Jones isn't throwing deep, then there are plenty of replacement options out there.

[seminoles1]

6 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

^This is the problem.  Everyone has seen Daniel Jones with and without Brian Daboll.  He's barely worth eight digits, let alone $32M.  Offer him a generous 2-year $20M contract, give him time to test his market value (which is nil if he doesn't come as a package deal with Daboll) elsewhere, and pick up someone on April 29th.

Those who believe this is underestimating DanJo's value are underestimating that of a QB whisperer.  By a factor approaching infinity.

That's insulting and barely above good backup money. Say what you will about Jones, but he was an effective starter last season with no one to throw to.

I'd sign him to a front-loaded 4-year deal:

4 years, $140 million. Don't know how bonuses work to get almost all the guaranteed money in the first 2 years, but that's what I'd do. If he falls back to earth, then you can get out of the deal on just 2 years.

[Soko]

I’d see if I can get up to agree to a heavily front loaded, team friendly deal. Give me an out after a year or two, but get your dollars up front. Otherwise, take the tag. I’m absolutely not signing Jones to a conventionalish deal that’s worth $45M AAV. 

Beyond that, I’m weighing my options with other QBs. Trading up from 25 isn’t impossible, provided one of these guys falls past that 8ish range. I’d kick some tires around the league. I’d bring Carr in for a visit. Once FA starts, with or without a deal/tag in for Jones, start touching base with your options. Bring Baker in for a visit. Bring in Brissett. Heinicke. Jimmy. See who you can get that, with Daboll’s coaching, might emulate what Jones did in 2022.

[Art_Vandalay]

As an Eagles fan, I hope they sign him to a monster extension. If I were a Giants fan, I'd rather sign Jimmy G - assuming the price tag is significantly lower which I think it will be - then draft a QB. There's no real drop-off from Jones to Garoppolo. Get a journeyman and keep drafting QB's until you hit.

[BetterCallSaul]

I like Daniel Jones a lot. Liked him as a prospect and then he had a pretty darn good year. He's a solid starting QB...maybe more.

 

Would I pay him big time money like this? No. I hate the idea of giving QB's that kind of money...even if they are really good.

[minutemancl]

4 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said:

As an Eagles fan, I hope they sign him to a monster extension. If I were a Giants fan, I'd rather sign Jimmy G - assuming the price tag is significantly lower which I think it will be - then draft a QB. There's no real drop-off from Jones to Garoppolo. Get a journeyman and keep drafting QB's until you hit.

Garappolo is a quarter of the runner Jones is and he is hitting the open market in a year when half the league needs a QB. He's also 32 years old. You'd be saving a small amount of money to probably make a lateral at best move at QB, overall talent wise, and one who is 8 years older. No thanks. Also, anyone who says "draft a QB", I want a name.

This is also worth saying: Daniel Jones and his agents never asked the Giants for $45 million. I don't think it would be a big deal even if he did, you can ask for whatever you want, but that never happened.

[NudeTayne]

12 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

Garappolo is a quarter of the runner Jones is and he is hitting the open market in a year when half the league needs a QB. He's also 32 years old. You'd be saving a small amount of money to probably make a lateral at best move at QB, overall talent wise, and one who is 8 years older. No thanks. Also, anyone who says "draft a QB", I want a name.

This is also worth saying: Daniel Jones and his agents never asked the Giants for $45 million. I don't think it would be a big deal even if he did, you can ask for whatever you want, but that never happened.

Except Daniel Jones is going to make more than Jimmy G on the open market tho

[Art_Vandalay]

8 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

Garappolo is a quarter of the runner Jones is and he is hitting the open market in a year when half the league needs a QB. He's also 32 years old. You'd be saving a small amount of money to probably make a lateral at best move at QB, overall talent wise, and one who is 8 years older. No thanks. Also, anyone who says "draft a QB", I want a name.

If it is in fact a small difference in money, then yeah. But a better running ability isn't worth 15-20 mil more. Either way, what's the long game with Jones? He's clearly not good enough to get to a Super Bowl despite having a great coach. We've seen his ceiling. Might as well keep the QB money low and continue drafting QB's. Hell, draft two in the first two days. I can't give you a name because I'm not a scout but if the organization is optimistic at all on someone, draft them.

[minutemancl]

17 minutes ago, BetterCallSaul said:

I like Daniel Jones a lot. Liked him as a prospect and then he had a pretty darn good year. He's a solid starting QB...maybe more.

 

Would I pay him big time money like this? No. I hate the idea of giving QB's that kind of money...even if they are really good.

Just wait until the Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson deals. The cap is predicted to be over $300 million in a few years- a ~$75 million increase from what it is in 2023; that's a 33% jump. The AAV on Lamar Jackson's deal is going to make Patrick Mahomes's deal look like backup money.

[iknowcool]

If you do extend DJ as opposed to the tag, then I think you need to be super aggressive in adding talent to the offense. Without a true #1 I don’t think there is any chance we see a huge change in Jones’ production, which blame it on whatever, isn’t gonna be good enough over the long term. 

 

[minutemancl]

1 minute ago, Art_Vandalay said:

If it is in fact a small difference in money, then yeah. But a better running ability isn't worth 15-20 mil more. Either way, what's the long game with Jones? He's clearly not good enough to get to a Super Bowl despite having a great coach. We've seen his ceiling. Might as well keep the QB money low and continue drafting QB's. Hell, draft two in the first two days. I can't give you a name because I'm not a scout but if the organization is optimistic at all on someone, draft them.

I think Garappolo and Jones, and Carr as well, will all have relatively similar contracts in terms of money per year. I don't think we've seen his ceiling. If he performs at the level he played the 2nd half of last year with a much better offensive cast, I think you are looking at a top-10 QB. I follow the same methodology as you, keep drafting QBs, but none of them that are going to be realistically available to the Giants will be better in 2023 than Jones or have a better long term outlook than Jones. I'm all for taking flyers on guys in day 3, even maybe taking Hendon Hooker late day 2, but that doesn't impact at all your decision on Jones.

You have 2 ways to build a Super Bowl roster- acquire a game changing, top tier QB, or build a fantastic roster around a good not great QB, like a Jimmy G. Either way, you also have to get lucky as well. Is there a game changing, top tier QB the Giants could acquire this year? Potentially Lamar Jackson, which is why if I were running the team I'd be exploring that route heavily. I also really like Anthony Richardson, but there are teams that also really like him that are picking top 10 and will be able to offer more for the opportunity to draft him. I'm also a proponent of trading back this year to acquire draft capital next year to potentially make a run at Caleb Williams or that UNC kid next year (like the Eagles did hedging their bets in acquiring 2023 draft capital last year in case Hurts busted). But if not, the Giants have to build a fantastic roster, which they are a long way off doing. There are a lot of holes in this roster. How long are you going to sign 32 year old Jimmy G to? Is that enough time to build up this roster? Probably not.