2023 NFL offseason

[Forge]

We are just getting to some legit weird levels of content now.

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

9 hours ago, Forge said:

We are just getting to some legit weird levels of content now.

I think he meant under Shanahan. 

 

To use the words of Mike Nolan:  Sam Darnold is a football player, and this team wants football players.

Seriously though, I think he has some arm talent to go 3-4 against any 4 teams in the league.  He's been a little streaky, but there are more ups than downs.  He is one of about 20-25 mid tier starters that only play as well as the talent around them.  I could end up eating these words like a cheeseburger though, so you never know.  

[757-NINER]

4 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

I think he meant under Shanahan. 

 

To use the words of Mike Nolan:  Sam Darnold is a football player, and this team wants football players.

Seriously though, I think he has some arm talent to go 3-4 against any 4 teams in the league.  He's been a little streaky, but there are more ups than downs.  He is one of about 20-25 mid tier starters that only play as well as the talent around them.  I could end up eating these words like a cheeseburger though, so you never know.  

My comp to him has always been Jimmy G with better arm talent.

If he can be Jimmy with some deep ball ability/accuracy thrown in, I'd be euphoric.

 

[Forge]

7 hours ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

I think he meant under Shanahan. 

 

To use the words of Mike Nolan:  Sam Darnold is a football player, and this team wants football players.

Seriously though, I think he has some arm talent to go 3-4 against any 4 teams in the league.  He's been a little streaky, but there are more ups than downs.  He is one of about 20-25 mid tier starters that only play as well as the talent around them.  I could end up eating these words like a cheeseburger though, so you never know.  

 I wouldn't call him a mid tier starter...he simply hasn't shown enough to warrant that (mid tier starter for me is Derek Carr / Kirk Cousins / etc), so I don't think my tier is the same as yours. I'd put him in that low rent quality starters tier of guys who are capable of putting together some decent string of games . Guys you'd rank from like 22-32. Darnold, Baker. Mike White. Carson Wentz. Taylor Heinicke. Those types. Ideal high level backups who can come in and not poop all over themselves if you need them for 4 games lol. 

I don't mind playing him over a short stretch of games while Purdy is out.  Though part of that reason is that at some point, you have to think Shanny is more willing to pull the plug and put in Lance. I can't imagine that Shanny would let the team crater while Purdy is out for the benefit of playing Darnold if he's not getting the job done just so he doesn't have to play Lance. Assuming that Lance is still on the team, of course (I think that is likely now with Brandon Allen as the 4th QB starter they signed....I could have seen them cut Lance after training camp if they had signed a real QB or drafted one). I think if Purdy misses the season and you're running with Darnold all year, you don't really have a chance of going anywhere in the post season. 

[JIllg]

33 minutes ago, Forge said:

 I wouldn't call him a mid tier starter...he simply hasn't shown enough to warrant that (mid tier starter for me is Derek Carr / Kirk Cousins / etc), so I don't think my tier is the same as yours. I'd put him in that low rent quality starters tier of guys who are capable of putting together some decent string of games . Guys you'd rank from like 22-32. Darnold, Baker. Mike White. Carson Wentz. Taylor Heinicke. Those types. Ideal high level backups who can come in and not poop all over themselves if you need them for 4 games lol. 

I don't mind playing him over a short stretch of games while Purdy is out.  Though part of that reason is that at some point, you have to think Shanny is more willing to pull the plug and put in Lance. I can't imagine that Shanny would let the team crater while Purdy is out for the benefit of playing Darnold if he's not getting the job done just so he doesn't have to play Lance. Assuming that Lance is still on the team, of course (I think that is likely now with Brandon Allen as the 4th QB starter they signed....I could have seen them cut Lance after training camp if they had signed a real QB or drafted one). I think if Purdy misses the season and you're running with Darnold all year, you don't really have a chance of going anywhere in the post season. 

Yeah, I think that Sam is going to have some of the same problems that Trey Lance has had (and I enjoy Darnold tape more than most). Darnold's hovered around 60% completions for his career with strong consistency. Even given that he and Trey attack further down the field, that will have to be at least 63-65% given that we have so many layup throws to YAC guys built into the offense.

Last year, Darnold cut down on the turnovers and aside from the completion percentage he played like a Shanahan qb with real arm strength - high YPA, attacking off of play action and RPOs and simple reads. But Darnold's going to have to keep the turnovers down at least at the Jimmy G - ish levels that they were last year for him and show that some of the accuracy problems were teammates and scheme. All of that coming together at once is asking for a lot.

It's certainly not impossible. The NFL is a weird place with a lot of variables. I could see him ending up as bigger armed, stronger Brock Purdy. Darnold has a similar kind of slippery get out of danger game with a fast 10 yard split and he's really good throwing to his left on bootlegs. But that is going to require as much of a leap as Lance is going to need. And we don't have Darnold under contract after this year. I think that it is more likely that he ends up as bigger armed, stronger, but less accurate Brock Purdy. And that's a solid option for keeping the team on the rails temporarily.

Edited May 5, 2023 by JIllg

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

12 hours ago, Forge said:

 I wouldn't call him a mid tier starter...he simply hasn't shown enough to warrant that (mid tier starter for me is Derek Carr / Kirk Cousins / etc), so I don't think my tier is the same as yours. I'd put him in that low rent quality starters tier of guys who are capable of putting together some decent string of games . Guys you'd rank from like 22-32. Darnold, Baker. Mike White. Carson Wentz. Taylor Heinicke. Those types. Ideal high level backups who can come in and not poop all over themselves if you need them for 4 games lol. 

I don't mind playing him over a short stretch of games while Purdy is out.  Though part of that reason is that at some point, you have to think Shanny is more willing to pull the plug and put in Lance. I can't imagine that Shanny would let the team crater while Purdy is out for the benefit of playing Darnold if he's not getting the job done just so he doesn't have to play Lance. Assuming that Lance is still on the team, of course (I think that is likely now with Brandon Allen as the 4th QB starter they signed....I could have seen them cut Lance after training camp if they had signed a real QB or drafted one). I think if Purdy misses the season and you're running with Darnold all year, you don't really have a chance of going anywhere in the post season. 

I think my "middle tier" is quite a bit bigger than most people.  I think there are about 8 upper tier guys, 4 guys who go back and forth, and about 20 dudes that are the products of the guys around them.  I would agree, Darnold has been a lower third starter over his career, with the exception of his last 6 games.  He was probably closer to 16ish.  I think with the guys around him, he could give us some solid, above average production.  

12 hours ago, JIllg said:

Yeah, I think that Sam is going to have some of the same problems that Trey Lance has had (and I enjoy Darnold tape more than most). Darnold's hovered around 60% completions for his career with strong consistency. Even given that he and Trey attack further down the field, that will have to be at least 63-65% given that we have so many layup throws to YAC guys built into the offense.

Last year, Darnold cut down on the turnovers and aside from the completion percentage he played like a Shanahan qb with real arm strength - high YPA, attacking off of play action and RPOs and simple reads. But Darnold's going to have to keep the turnovers down at least at the Jimmy G - ish levels that they were last year for him and show that some of the accuracy problems were teammates and scheme. All of that coming together at once is asking for a lot.

It's certainly not impossible. The NFL is a weird place with a lot of variables. I could see him ending up as bigger armed, stronger Brock Purdy. Darnold has a similar kind of slippery get out of danger game with a fast 10 yard split and he's really good throwing to his left on bootlegs. But that is going to require as much of a leap as Lance is going to need. And we don't have Darnold under contract after this year. I think that it is more likely that he ends up as bigger armed, stronger, but less accurate Brock Purdy. And that's a solid option for keeping the team on the rails temporarily.

I think Darnold has Jimmy G's consistency, Brock's elusiveness, and Trey's arm.  There are a lot of positive traits there.   I think what made Purdy special was his quickness of mind, and quickness of delivery.  We simply don't know where Darnold is going to be with that, but if he is even average, he has the tools and the guys around him to make a lot of plays and blow some teams out of the water.  My gut says that Darnold is a consistent thrower and inconsistent decision maker, but he's had a rotating door of coaches.  It is tough to tell if that is just a product of bad coaching, or if he just doesn't process quite quick enough.

[P_locniners]

On 5/5/2023 at 4:52 AM, 757-NINER said:

My comp to him has always been Jimmy G with better arm talent.

If he can be Jimmy with some deep ball ability/accuracy thrown in, I'd be euphoric.

 

I think he has a better arm and much better mobility than Jimmy G. Jimmy G thrived on short accurate throws in the middle of the field, Darnold is lacking in accuracy. 

[oldman9er]

don't care... just ready for someone to take a snap and score 49ers TDs.... lots of 'em..

[49erurtaza]

13 hours ago, oldman9er said:

don't care... just ready for someone to take a snap and score 49ers TDs.... lots of 'em..

Lol same but we are so close to the media tracking every throw in OTAs that is open to the media and camp. Lmao 

[Forge]

45 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said:

Lol same but we are so close to the media tracking every throw in OTAs that is open to the media and camp. Lmao 

This year we get kicking reports too 

[49erurtaza]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

This year we get kicking reports too 

I can't wait when Moody misses his first kick in camp. Lol

[49erscap]

31 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said:

I can't wait when Moody misses his first kick in camp. Lol

And 49ers Twitter goes nuts. I hope to god Moody does good I actually like the pick more and more every day, seeing/hearing teams tried to move up for Moody, I'm completely fine with the pick.

[Forge]

47 minutes ago, 49erscap said:

And 49ers Twitter goes nuts. I hope to god Moody does good I actually like the pick more and more every day, seeing/hearing teams tried to move up for Moody, I'm completely fine with the pick.

 

The only person I've heard say people were trying to move up for moody was Lynch, so I'm going to take that with a grain of salt lol

It's unfortunate that he basically needs to be an elite level kicker right from jump to make him worth the pick. If he's good enough, people will probably not care though. Undue pressure on him as people are going to expect a lot. Rookie kickers are notoriously not great, either. So there is a good chance that the team will need to be patient. 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

15 minutes ago, Forge said:

 

The only person I've heard say people were trying to move up for moody was Lynch, so I'm going to take that with a grain of salt lol

It's unfortunate that he basically needs to be an elite level kicker right from jump to make him worth the pick. If he's good enough, people will probably not care though. Undue pressure on him as people are going to expect a lot. Rookie kickers are notoriously not great, either. So there is a good chance that the team will need to be patient. 

I think it's also worth noting that we typically get three first rounders each year.  One natural pick, one from a player we can't afford to keep, and one from a minority coach or personnel guy getting hired somewhere else.  

I don't hate the pick, kickers matter.  If he sucks, he is replaceable, and so is the third rounder.  

[Forge]

21 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

I think it's also worth noting that we typically get three first rounders each year.  One natural pick, one from a player we can't afford to keep, and one from a minority coach or personnel guy getting hired somewhere else.  

I don't hate the pick, kickers matter.  If he sucks, he is replaceable, and so is the third rounder.  

It's just a terrible process is all, and people tend to ignore process in favor of results which is to be expected. This regime has frequently shown terrible process and it hasn't caught up with them yet outside of the injury plagued season. 

Fans tend to overrate draft picks as well.