Draft prediction thread

[JDD]

This is the first time in a long time that I haven’t actually started caring about the draft. I haven’t even read any Browns news not on this page in 2 months. 
 

I’m worried guys 

[mtmmike]

3 minutes ago, JDD said:

This is the first time in a long time that I haven’t actually started caring about the draft. I haven’t even read any Browns news not on this page in 2 months. 
 

I’m worried guys 

No worries 

[DawgX]

1 hour ago, JDD said:

This is the first time in a long time that I haven’t actually started caring about the draft. I haven’t even read any Browns news not on this page in 2 months. 
 

I’m worried guys 

I mean, not having a pick until round three makes the draft not very interesting. Not even sure I'll watch the draft, and that would be a first since i've joined this forum back in 2006.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

Just now, DawgX said:

I mean, not having a pick until round three makes the draft not very interesting. Not even sure I'll watch the draft, and that would be a first since i've joined this forum back in 2006.

If history is any indication you won’t be missing much.

[brownie man]

I think we either trade up for a receiver that falls to the late second or take a d lineman 

I’m going to say we draft defensive end Byron Young from Tennessee 

he’s older, but the positive is he would be more developed to play now. 
 

He’s also extremely athletic which fits our front offices MO. We need more pass rush help so I could see is going that route first. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

2 hours ago, brownie man said:

I think we either trade up for a receiver that falls to the late second or take a d lineman 

I’m going to say we draft defensive end Byron Young from Tennessee 

he’s older, but the positive is he would be more developed to play now. 
 

He’s also extremely athletic which fits our front offices MO. We need more pass rush help so I could see is going that route first. 

Berry hasn’t drafted anyone older than 22 yet, I’d be stunned if we drafted a 25 year old rookie.

[MWil23]

Our "draft bingo" IMO:

*Prospects 22 or under, next to no/no exceptions regardless of round

*If in doubt, check out the RAS score. (Bell was a weird pick for this reason and an outlier IMO)

*Look for trades throughout the draft

*Berry hasn't cut a single draft pick he's made in 3 years; I'd look for guys to all make the team and as a result, that would mean trades up/for future picks as opposed to "more picks this year"

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

19 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Our "draft bingo" IMO:

*Prospects 22 or under, next to no/no exceptions regardless of round

*If in doubt, check out the RAS score. (Bell was a weird pick for this reason and an outlier IMO)

Add to this:

Likely going to come from a bigger school and a power 5 conference.  
 

Multiple year starter and early breakout age (early contributor)

19 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

*Look for trades throughout the draft

*Berry hasn't cut a single draft pick he's made in 3 years; I'd look for guys to all make the team and as a result, that would mean trades up/for future picks as opposed to "more picks this year"

I have a feeling we’re going to draft more people than some expect.  

I think we have a number of bottom of the roster spots we could easily fill (4th safety, 5th corner, etc) and should fill to continue to build depth.

Another factor that I think is being slept on is that first class of his will be reaching their final year of their rookie deals and are in a put up or shut up position.  For example Harrison Bryant had a $2M+ cap hit this season with only a 200k dead cap hit.  It wouldn’t shock me to see them look for a younger, cheaper option.

Guys like Elliot, Phillips and Bryant are gonna have to show something imo.  And I think the clock is running out for 2021 guys like Felton, Schwartz and Togiai.

I like that we’re patient with picks, it shows there’s an actual plan in place to allow these guys to develop, but you expect to see them hit some developmental milestones that a lot of these guys just haven’t yet.

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Add to this:

Likely going to come from a bigger school and a power 5 conference.  
 

Multiple year starter and early breakout age (early contributor)

Both of these I've personally always been fans of myself as well, barring outliers that I've loved like Khalil Mack who also flashed sheer dominance against OSU and elite competition when given the opportunity.

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I have a feeling we’re going to draft more people than some expect.  

I think we have a number of bottom of the roster spots we could easily fill (4th safety, 5th corner, etc) and should fill to continue to build depth.

Another factor that I think is being slept on is that first class of his will be reaching their final year of their rookie deals and are in a put up or shut up position.  For example Harrison Bryant had a $2M+ cap hit this season with only a 200k dead cap hit.  It wouldn’t shock me to see them look for a younger, cheaper option.

Very good point here on that. This would also be the TE class to do it. Or, we do need a 3rd TE and likely want a guy with H/TE/FB flexibility to replace Bryant after this year even if we keep him. I'm "meh" on Bryant. He's a capable albeit not awesome #2.

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Guys like Elliot, Phillips and Bryant are gonna have to show something imo.  

I think everyone here knows how I feel about Elliot and Phillips, which is the same as I felt about them when we drafted them. Bryant I think is likely safe because we also use him a lot as a FB/H, whereas Njoku is used as a TE/slot hybrid...so if we can find that guy who can replace him, he's in trouble, but I think we carry 3 TE regardless.

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

And I think the clock is running out for 2021 guys like Felton, Schwartz and Togiai.

Felton should absolutely be gone. He was moved from RB to WR and is about our current 7th best WR. I think one of Schwartz, Bell, and Grant is toast, so I think Schwartz sticks one more year, as does Bell with Grant as the odd man out.

Togiai is entering year 3 and I think he likely sticks due to the sheer weakness on the DT spots. Tomlinson, Elliot, Togiai, and Winfrey...I think we might even cut Elliot before Togiai but who knows, I wouldn't cry either way.

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I like that we’re patient with picks, it shows there’s an actual plan in place to allow these guys to develop, but you expect to see them hit some developmental milestones that a lot of these guys just haven’t yet.

I'm great with being patient with picks to a degree, but there's also an art of "cutting bait". We can't afford to just hold onto roster spots for guys who can't walk and chew gum at the same time anymore hoping they develop. I don't have anyone specifically in mind except for perhaps Schwartz.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

33 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Both of these I've personally always been fans of myself as well, barring outliers that I've loved like Khalil Mack who also flashed sheer dominance against OSU and elite competition when given the opportunity.

yeah you know those guys when you see them tbh.  He whipped Decker’s *** up and down the field that whole game.

33 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Very good point here on that. This would also be the TE class to do it. Or, we do need a 3rd TE and likely want a guy with H/TE/FB flexibility to replace Bryant after this year even if we keep him. I'm "meh" on Bryant. He's a capable albeit not awesome #2.

I think Bryant is headed for being TE3 after the signing the guy from Houston which makes the salary and pending FA a bigger deal imo. 

33 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I think everyone here knows how I feel about Elliot and Phillips, which is the same as I felt about them when we drafted them. 
 

They’ve both had 3 seasons, gonna need to see something in camp this year or it’s time to move on imo.

33 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Felton should absolutely be gone. He was moved from RB to WR and is about our current 7th best WR.

When you’re being asked to change positions that’s a bad, bad sign.  He’s toast imo.

33 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I think one of Schwartz, Bell, and Grant is toast, so I think Schwartz sticks one more year, as does Bell with Grant as the odd man out.

agreed.

33 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Togiai is entering year 3 and I think he likely sticks due to the sheer weakness on the DT spots. Tomlinson, Elliot, Togiai, and Winfrey...I think we might even cut Elliot before Togiai but who knows, I wouldn't cry either way.

I would be stunned if we don’t draft a DT. Berry tends to double down on weaknesses with both FA and draft picks.

33 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I'm great with being patient with picks to a degree, but there's also an art of "cutting bait". We can't afford to just hold onto roster spots for guys who can't walk and chew gum at the same time anymore hoping they develop. I don't have anyone specifically in mind except for perhaps Schwartz.

Felton for sure.

 

[MWil23]

Everyone greet our future Center draft pick

[NateDawg]

19 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Everyone greet our future Center draft pick

As long as he is there for our second pick. With Berry, our first pick is guaranteed to be a cornerback.

[ditchdigger]

Embarrassment of riches deep in this draft, and where we need depth most.

 

RB for every type of role, 3 tech DTs all over the place, good IOL options in every round, every type of WR, insanely athletic TEs wherever you look, and slot DBs for every taste. 

 

You could even justify adding an OT sometime on day 2, like Steen, Bergeron or Freeland. 

 

My guys right now:

 

RB 

 

Day 2 has three bell cow type guys that I like. Kendre Miller has the traits, size and big stage production that translates well. Tank Bigsby is from a similar mold, and might be the closest playing style to Chubb as we will get a shot at in this draft. Good vision and cutback speed, reminded me of Corey Dillon. The last guy I could see here is Israel Abanikanda. Similar to the other guys, but add blinding speed. 

Those are 3 guys who could do what we expected Kareem Hunt to do, and possibly even be a starter should we do something stupid like not pay Nick Chubb down the line.

Day 3,  Roschon Johnson might end up being a value pick at 126 or 140 if we pass on a day 2 guy. If we want a guy who can play a role like 3rd down back and specials that can supplement the passing game they are there too. Sean Tucker, Tyjae Spears, Deuce Vaughn and Keaton Mitchell are all smaller guys who can fill that role.

3T DT

Keanu Benton is my no brainer at 74 if we are lucky. Rare 3T skills from the Nose Tackle spot, could play either. Gervon Dexter is an athletic option if he falls, but probably will go in round 2.

Colby Wooden is a great fit for Schwartz's scheme, a stunting 3T who can play base end as well. Zach Pickens andMoro Ojomo are smaller athletic 3Ts, while Byron Young (Alabama, not Tennessee) and Jacqueline Roy offer a more power-based approach if that's what you're after.

IOL

Long term replacements for Center are going to be there. 98 may be the sweet spot. Stromberg, Tippman and Wypler could fall. Juice Scruggs and John Gaines II could be options later if they don't. RG also may be an option if they do not feel good about paying Teller long term. Asim Richards, Braeden Daniels and Nick Saldiveri are guys who have the movement skills needed for the pulls and traps Teller made his name doing.

Going to continue listing my guys later. I am unusually opinionated about this draft this year.

Edited April 6, 2023 by ditchdigger

[DawgX]

43 minutes ago, ditchdigger said:

 

.

 

Well said.

[DawgX]

1 hour ago, NateDawg said:

As long as he is there for our second pick. With Berry, our first pick is guaranteed to be a cornerback.

mtmnate23

Edited April 6, 2023 by DawgX
misspelling