Who goes higher/lower than anticipated?

[Daniel]

12 minutes ago, Blue said:

Maybe I'm misreading the spider chart but it doesn't seem to be accounting for each of these attributes relative to the others like RAS does. For instance, a tight end who runs a 4.65 at 6-5 250 is a lot more athletic than one who runs a 4.60 at 6-3 230.

It doesn't really matter. Nobody thought Mayer was going to be some sort of elite athletic specimen and top notch athleticism isn't what makes him a great prospect.

Yeah, it's not like he's a poor athlete.  Plenty of TEs have been successful in the NFL with an athletic profile similar to his.

I do think though that I'd be more inclined to take Darnell Washington over him.  Maybe Kincaid or Musgrave too.  Athleticism offers a lot of upside, and all four look like great TEs, at the very least.

[Blue]

6 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Yeah, it's not like he's a poor athlete.  Plenty of TEs have been successful in the NFL with an athletic profile similar to his.

I do think though that I'd be more inclined to take Darnell Washington over him.  Maybe Kincaid or Musgrave too.  Athleticism offers a lot of upside, and all four look like great TEs, at the very least.

My only issue is that no one in their right mind would have said they would take Washington over Mayer while they were still wearing pads. Very leery of anyone who changes up their board based on the underwear Olympics.

EDIT: Not even an issue, I like Washington and Musgrave a lot too, but I think there's the annual overreaction to testing with Washington in particular.

Edited April 21, 2023 by Blue

[Teen Girl Squad]

14 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Yeah, it's not like he's a poor athlete.  Plenty of TEs have been successful in the NFL with an athletic profile similar to his.

I don't think many people are doubting that Meyer will be a productive player. The problem is that TE is a position where you need to be absolutely elite to justify a high pick vs. other positions and historically the handful of TEs that moved the needle were all way above average athletes at the position. Similar to RBs in that respect.

[smetana34]

1 hour ago, AkronsWitness said:

Good point, Ive made that point when Njoku was drafted on the Browns board  and completely stand behind it. TE not only has the steepest learning curve and latest development of any position, but the track record going back 15+ years of 1st round TEs being any sort of year 1-2 difference maker is essentially non existent. People talk about not taking a RB top 15 because of the value, but I would say the elephant in the room is that no team should ever spend a 1st on a TE.

It's tough because the position is a unicorn and it's an incredible advantage if you land that stud. Unfortunately there's about only two a decade, and they're usually found in the last half of the draft

[BetterCallSaul]

No rumblings of this, but I think Jartavius Martin goes way earlier than people think. Might even be S#2 in the pecking order. 

[Ragnarok]

57 minutes ago, Blue said:

My only issue is that no one in their right mind would have said they would take Washington over Mayer while they were still wearing pads. Very leery of anyone who changes up their board based on the underwear Olympics.

EDIT: Not even an issue, I like Washington and Musgrave a lot too, but I think there's the annual overreaction to testing with Washington in particular.

*raises hand*

Although whether I'm in my right mind is up for debate.

[AkronsWitness]

2 hours ago, smetana34 said:

It's tough because the position is a unicorn and it's an incredible advantage if you land that stud. Unfortunately there's about only two a decade, and they're usually found in the last half of the draft

Exactly. There is next to no recent data that says drafting a TE RD1 gives you a better shot of finding a 10 year starter in this modern pass happy league.

• Kyle Pitts (Well See), Noah Fant (Meh), TJ Hockenson (Solid), Hayden Hurst (Replaceble), David Njoku (Solid), Evan Engram (Replaceable), OJ Howard (Bad), Eric Ebron (Solid), Tyler Eifert (Injuries), Jermaine Gresham (Bad), Brandon Pettigrew (meh/bad), Dustin Keller (meh/bad), Greg Olsen (HEY!), Mercedes Lewis (Solid).

So in the last 17 years there has been 14 TEs drafted in the 1st round and only one of them (In 17 years!) has made a real name for themselves and would be drafted in the 1st again. I dont think in a redraft Hock/Fant go in the 1st. They are probably 2nd/3rd round picks, respectively, but they went 8th overall and 20th overall. Pitts is a open book.

Does the NFL have a Scouting issue at TE or is it a developmental issue.

Edited April 21, 2023 by AkronsWitness

[Daniel]

16 hours ago, Blue said:

My only issue is that no one in their right mind would have said they would take Washington over Mayer while they were still wearing pads. Very leery of anyone who changes up their board based on the underwear Olympics.

EDIT: Not even an issue, I like Washington and Musgrave a lot too, but I think there's the annual overreaction to testing with Washington in particular.

I had them as pretty close before the combine. Washington has been my dream Titans pick at 41 since like December.

He’d be such a perfect fit.

[Dr A W Niloc]

Going lower than mocked: 

QB Anthony Richardson

TE Dalton Kincaid

 

Going higher than mocked:

CB Tyrique Stevenson

RBs Evan Hull & Kenny McIntosh

[jebrick]

18 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

Does the NFL have a Scouting issue at TE or is it a developmental issue.

Yes.

[MSURacerDT55]

23 hours ago, Blue said:

My only issue is that no one in their right mind would have said they would take Washington over Mayer while they were still wearing pads. Very leery of anyone who changes up their board based on the underwear Olympics.

EDIT: Not even an issue, I like Washington and Musgrave a lot too, but I think there's the annual overreaction to testing with Washington in particular.

I would, have you watched film and see what he offers in pass protection and in the run game? I don’t know if there are any other guys who offer more than he does all together.

He just needs the right team to see him for the monster he could be.

Edited April 22, 2023 by MSURacerDT55

[MSURacerDT55]

21 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

Does the NFL have a Scouting issue at TE or is it a developmental issue.

Developmental for sure,I think it’s far too many OCs trying to fit these guys into situations that don’t necessarily fit their skill set. Most of the successful TEs have guys who know how to put them in situations to be successful and exploit matchups in the middle of the field/goal line 

Edited April 22, 2023 by MSURacerDT55

[BetterCallSaul]

No rumblings of this, but I think Jartavius Martin goes way earlier than people think. Might even be S#2 in the pecking order. 
 

Also Tanner Mckee. I think he’s just as good, if not better, than Richardson & Levis. While his ceiling is definitely not as high, he can play. And his arm is fantastic—he just can’t move. 

[BetterCallSaul]

On 4/22/2023 at 5:02 PM, MSURacerDT55 said:

Developmental for sure,I think it’s far too many OCs trying to fit these guys into situations that don’t necessarily fit their skill set. Most of the successful TEs have guys who know how to put them in situations to be successful and exploit matchups in the middle of the field/goal line 

Yeah I think scouts & coaches probably have vastly different grades on TEs. Coaches would probably ere on the side of lower upside guys like Payne Durham, whereas scouts nut in their panties over the traits of guys like Zach Kuntz. Vastly different players and vastly different fits within a scheme. I think unlike college, NFL teams have a harder time finding a fit for a jumbo WR masquerading as a TE. Probably because there’s a lot more man coverage in the NFL, where most spread TEs are just finding weak zones & sitting down in college. 

[minutemancl]

Jalin Hyatt goes round 3

Darnell Washington goes round 3-4

Paris Johnson Jr goes top 5

Nolan Smith goes top 10

Jartavius Martin goes round 1

Yaya Diaby goes round 2