THE DUKE Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Just now, Forge said: I don't think that matters for some decision makers. They have their thresholds and that's that. It's mostly a weed out tool And honestly, I totally get teams that stick to thresholds and don't gamble on a riskier profile, but I also don't think you should hold to things like that with zero room for variability. In general, you don't want to gamble on statistical outliers, and while they should be a large part of the conversation, they shouldn't be the entire conversation. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, THE DUKE said: And honestly, I totally get teams that stick to thresholds and don't gamble on a riskier profile, but I also don't think you should hold to things like that with zero room for variability. In general, you don't want to gamble on statistical outliers, and while they should be a large part of the conversation, they shouldn't be the entire conversation. Agreed. I'm big on that as well. I mean, there are some things that I will drop guys for quite a bit (age being one of them - I'd probably never draft Hooker at a point where I am likely able to get him), but I still viewed Devonta Smith as a first round talent and pick despite his outlier-ish size. I can just envision a world where Kancey has a craptastic run of teams and available players and ends up going like #51 or something 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BetterCallSaul Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 18 minutes ago, Forge said: If he had normal arms, I'd probably have him as a lock to go in the first. I still think that things such as arm length matter to NFL people and I definitely think that there are going to be teams that have him off the board in first two rounds. So if he gets just an unfortunate run of teams, I could see him falling to a point closer to the third round than the first round. I see why length matters for OT's, TE's, WR's, DE's, DB's, LB's. But for interior DL? I could care less about arm length. I know NFL personnel might, but you're lining up an inch from someone else. I feel like arm length isn't going to be a factor when OL aren't even done taking their first kick step & they have Kancey sprinting at them. Just my opinion though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Forge said: Agreed. I'm big on that as well. I mean, there are some things that I will drop guys for quite a bit (age being one of them - I'd probably never draft Hooker at a point where I am likely able to get him), but I still viewed Devonta Smith as a first round talent and pick despite his outlier-ish size. Same, I most likely wouldn't take Hooker before day 3. Conversely, I think Emmanuel Forbes is a top 10 talent in this draft. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, Forge said: Agreed. I'm big on that as well. I mean, there are some things that I will drop guys for quite a bit (age being one of them - I'd probably never draft Hooker at a point where I am likely able to get him), but I still viewed Devonta Smith as a first round talent and pick despite his outlier-ish size. I can just envision a world where Kancey has a craptastic run of teams and available players and ends up going like #51 or something I mean, Kancey is in the 2nd percentile for height, 1st percentile for arm length and 4th percentile for height. I don't think that adds up to a GM willing to taking a swing on him in the first. I really like his film, but decision-makers don't want to be wrong on outliers - they let other guys take those swings. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 29 minutes ago, MWil23 said: @Blue rebuttal? He’s a great player. Top TE in the class but he doesn’t test as a top 25% TE athlete… it’s there for all to see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 I could see the top tight ends drifting, for no other reason than it's a deep class and teams will feel like they can wait to take a shot at a non prime position. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teen Girl Squad Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 1 minute ago, goldfishwars said: I could see the top tight ends drifting, for no other reason than it's a deep class and teams will feel like they can wait to take a shot at a non prime position. This is where I've landed. I could see a strong run of TEs in round two, with a lot of teams chasing a much scarcer supply of talent at other positions in round 1. Basically like the RB position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, Teen Girl Squad said: This is where I've landed. I could see a strong run of TEs in round two, with a lot of teams chasing a much scarcer supply of talent at other positions in round 1. Basically like the RB position. Yeah, will be a lot of teams waiting to see where the run starts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Lack of big receivers in this draft, I think the floor for Jonathan Mingo is GB at 45, he could go tail-end round 1. I think he might go ahead of Johnston and I'm fairly confident he goes ahead of Addison. Just a way more fluid player than Johnston. I don't think Johnston falls too far, because he's also one of the rare bigger WR's. There will be teams not interested in the little guys, and there will be teams who fill their need with one. Leaving not many options early for them. Therefore one or multiple of these guys is going to fall: Jordan Addison, Tank Dell, Josh Downs, Tyler Scott, Marvin Mims, Jalin Hyatt, Jayden Reed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AkronsWitness Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, smetana34 said: A 1st round TE never returns the value. You have to go all the way back to Greg Olsen to find one that did, and he didn't flourish until getting into Carolina. Hockenson is on his way, but I want to see a repeat in Minnesota before believing into it. None of these TEs should be going in the 1st; TEs never should if I'm being honest Good point, Ive made that point when Njoku was drafted on the Browns board and completely stand behind it. TE not only has the steepest learning curve and latest development of any position, but the track record going back 15+ years of 1st round TEs being any sort of year 1-2 difference maker is essentially non existent. People talk about not taking a RB top 15 because of the value, but I would say the elephant in the room is that no team should ever spend a 1st on a TE. Edited April 21, 2023 by AkronsWitness 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texansfan713 Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 I can see the top WR's falling lower than expected aside from JSN. This might be the worst WR class since 2006. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 2 hours ago, MWil23 said: @Blue rebuttal? Maybe I'm misreading the spider chart but it doesn't seem to be accounting for each of these attributes relative to the others like RAS does. For instance, a tight end who runs a 4.65 at 6-5 250 is a lot more athletic than one who runs a 4.60 at 6-3 230. It doesn't really matter. Nobody thought Mayer was going to be some sort of elite athletic specimen and top notch athleticism isn't what makes him a great prospect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Scoundrel said: He’s a great player. Top TE in the class but he doesn’t test as a top 25% TE athlete… it’s there for all to see It depends entirely on the metrics you're using. He's a top 25th percentile overall athlete by RAS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AkronsWitness Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, Texansfan713 said: I can see the top WR's falling lower than expected aside from JSN. This might be the worst WR class since 2006. To be fair, the last few drafts were overflowing with WR talent. It had to go back to normal at some point lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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