Why did _________ bust?

[RaidersAreOne]

Draft day is right around the corner and the freezing cold takes of prospects on Twitter are hilarious. Example:

This got me thinking so many players are considered home run, safe, blue chip, etc but end up busting. What players who busted have shocked you the most, and why did they bust at the NFL level?

[RaidersAreOne]

What about the "safest" player in the 2009 draft, LB Aaron Curry?

[43M]

2 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

What about the "safest" player in the 2009 draft, LB Aaron Curry?

First name that came to mind for me, as well.

Also, I remember Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel were widely considered extremely safe, perennial pro bowl tackle prospects.   Fisher had a good career but never lived to the hype.   Joeckel flat out sucked.

In that same draft,  Jonathan Cooper looked be a safe pick to be a really good OG, but that was an epic fail.

Playboy Keith Rivers was supposed to be the next Lance Briggs, but that never worked out.

Sam Bradford was much like Eric Fisher.   Considered a safe prospect and did decent, but never reached the level many expected.

[DawgX]

24 minutes ago, 43M said:

First name that came to mind for me, as well.

Also, I remember Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel were widely considered extremely safe, perennial pro bowl tackle prospects.   Fisher had a good career but never lived to the hype.   Joeckel flat out sucked.

In that same draft,  Jonathan Cooper looked be a safe pick to be a really good OG, but that was an epic fail.

Playboy Keith Rivers was supposed to be the next Lance Briggs, but that never worked out.

Sam Bradford was much like Eric Fisher.   Considered a safe prospect and did decent, but never reached the level many expected.

Was that the case with Fisher? I remember him being viewed as a safe prospect, but not with an extremely high ceiling. Kind of an underwhelming first overall pick even at the time. But I could be wrong.

Bradford I never understood the hype. Knew he'd be mediocre entering the league.

[Jakuvious]

4 hours ago, DawgX said:

Was that the case with Fisher? I remember him being viewed as a safe prospect, but not with an extremely high ceiling. Kind of an underwhelming first overall pick even at the time. But I could be wrong.

Bradford I never understood the hype. Knew he'd be mediocre entering the league.

I remember people raving about Fisher's footwork and agility pre-draft. Tested amazingly in everything but like, vertical jump. The main concern was his size/trength, but the idea was that going from Central Michigan to an NFL strength and conditioning program had a decent chance of solving that. He did bulk up a bit, but I think it was just a case of the intangible tools not really matching the physical ones. He had all of the physical traits to be elite, but he was kind of just pretty good in terms of technique and hand usage and such. Like, from a purely tangible athletic testing perspective, he was on par with like, Joe Thomas. RAS was like 9.8. But that isn't really enough at OL. The other stuff kind of matters more, and he never got better than decent at that stuff. So the ceiling was that high, but projecting a position like that just on athleticism rarely works out like that.

He was definitely an underwhelming 1st overall pick. One of the worst drafts in modern history all around. The big question was if we were going to take Fisher or Joeckel at the top. Some liked Lane Johnson at the time, but many were unsure if he was going to be a LT or a RT at the NFL level, and the idea of taking a RT that high was borderline taboo to many. Geno was the best QB and that was out of the question, so we already acquired Smith by this point. You had Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack, but take the concerns people had with taking a RT at #1, an multiply them dramatically for an OG. There was some talent at DT and EDGE, but we were running a 3-4 at the time and already had Poe, Houston, and Hali. Milliner was up there but we had Flowers and grabbed Sean Smith that offseason. We had relatively few needs at premier positions for a team drafting 1st overall, combine that with a weak draft, and you get Fisher.

Really though, if we want to talk about surprise busts out of that draft, either G is a much better question. Cooper or Warmack. Tons of people had Warmack as the top rated player in the draft, just dropped heavily by positional value. Basically everybody thought throwing him on that OL in front of Chris Johnson, when they already had Roos, Stewart, Levitre, would be just completely broken. And it very much was not. Cooper was a very different prospect, more like Fisher in that it was his agility, mobility, and athleticism that got attention, and his strength that prompted concerns, but he was seen as just as safe at the time, and even wound up getting taken first.

[NudeTayne]

Tyree Wilson busted because he had no explosiveness and lacked fast-twitch to accelerate off the snap.

-@futureTayne

[Hunter2_1]

10 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

What about the "safest" player in the 2009 draft, LB Aaron Curry?

I asked this one in another thread. @ET80 answered. Some combination of he never added pass rushing to his repertoire, and he no longer had any standout qualities when he hit the NFL as others got as big and as quick. Was JAG.

 

Why did Dion Jordan bust?

 

[43M]

7 hours ago, DawgX said:

Was that the case with Fisher? I remember him being viewed as a safe prospect, but not with an extremely high ceiling. Kind of an underwhelming first overall pick even at the time. But I could be wrong.

Bradford I never understood the hype. Knew he'd be mediocre entering the league.

Well, a perennial pro bowl LT doesnt necessarily mean Joe Thomas.     Just a guy who can consistently be a franchise LT for a decade or more....and I believe most people thought both Fisher and Joeckel would be that IIRC.    I remember I wasnt a big fan of Joeckel, but I did think Fisher would be better.    I thought Cooper would be really good too, so obviously, I missed hard there.

I didnt LOVE Bradford, but I thought and still think he couldve been better if he had gone to better team.     I dont think he was the right guy for a team as miserably untalented as that Rams team was, but I think if he had been drafted by say....the Arizona Cardinals....who still had Fitz and Boldin....and if Kurt Warner had stuck around...I think he couldve had a better career trajectory.    Maybe not an elite franchise QB, but Ryan Tannehill-ish success.   Considering how many offenses that guy went through and his health issues, I dont think thats far fetched.

[43M]

8 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I asked this one in another thread. @ET80 answered. Some combination of he never added pass rushing to his repertoire, and he no longer had any standout qualities when he hit the NFL as others got as big and as quick. Was JAG.

 

Why did Dion Jordan bust?

 

Dion Jordan was the epitome of a boom/bust guy, and a pure athlete coming out.   He needed so much coaching and technical refining.     He was similar to Aaron Maybin, but was a much more fluid athlete.   Both needed so much work coming out, and were both overdrafted purely on potential.

There are so many factors that can make or break a players chances of success.    There are a lot of busts IMO, that had they been drafted by better teams, couldve been much better, and similarly, a lot of successful players that may not have turned out as good if drafted elsewhere.    Beyond that, alot of players lose their passion and drive once they get that first NFL contract, especially before the rookie pay scale.     And obviously, its just very hard to make it in the NFL, regardless of when youre drafted.

[MWil23]

I remember when Chance Warmack was the biggest "can't miss prospect" in a decade at OG. That was fun.

[Daniel]

29 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I remember when Chance Warmack was the biggest "can't miss prospect" in a decade at OG. That was fun.

Warmack had red flags that should have been really obvious at the time.  He had no speed or quickness to his game, and his tape featured him between two other Alabama OLs who went to the NFL, blocking for a RB whose whole thing was yards after first contact.

He was only ever going to be capable of being a right guard, and wasn't particularly athletic.  Taking him 10th overall was dumb.

I did think Cooper was super safe though.

From the next year, a player I thought was super safe that famously busted hard was Justin Gilbert.  I thought he had it all at CB.

[MWil23]

11 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Warmack had red flags that should have been really obvious at the time.  He had no speed or quickness to his game, and his tape featured him between two other Alabama OLs who went to the NFL, blocking for a RB whose whole thing was yards after first contact.

He was only ever going to be capable of being a right guard, and wasn't particularly athletic.  Taking him 10th overall was dumb.

I did think Cooper was super safe though.

From the next year, a player I thought was super safe that famously busted hard was Justin Gilbert.  I thought he had it all at CB.

It's funny how some of these things work and how many of us view guys differently. Ironically, I was the biggest Justin Gilbert hater on the planet. I thought he was a great athlete with next to no ability to play the position and had a lot of major concerns about him, so when Cleveland drafted him and then my other most hated prospect in JFF the same year, I couldn't help but be unbelievably cynical and upset.

[Daniel]

9 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

It's funny how some of these things work and how many of us view guys differently. Ironically, I was the biggest Justin Gilbert hater on the planet. I thought he was a great athlete with next to no ability to play the position and had a lot of major concerns about him, so when Cleveland drafted him and then my other most hated prospect in JFF the same year, I couldn't help but be unbelievably cynical and upset.

I thought Johnny Football was taken about where he needed to be at the time, despite not thinking he was likely to pan out.  Late first is generally worth it on lotto type QBs, but I was glad it wasn't my team.

Warmack is just one that sticks in my craw to this day because I was writing for bleacherreport at the time, he was connected to the Titans the whole time, and the editor more or less made me stop saying that drafting him would be a bad move and he wasn't a good prospect because him being can't miss was such a universal truth, and because readers were responding so overwhelmingly negatively.

Justin Hunter though, boy I thought he was a great pick in the second.

[MOSteelers56]

15 hours ago, 43M said:

In that same draft,  Jonathan Cooper looked be a safe pick to be a really good OG, but that was an epic fail.

Cooper wasn't even the only generational OG in that draft to bust. Chance Warmack was also drafted top 10 and also stunk something awful. 

[RaidersAreOne]

Why did Solomon Thomas bust?