Final Draft Thoughts 2023

[Just Want A Title]

Over the years the talking heads have described TE and as having less positional value.  Rob Gronkowski, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce and George Kittle have changed that.  RT was low positional value until Michael Strahan showed that you can rush the passer from both DE spots.  CBs were of less value when the NFL cracked down on the "Ty Law" style of playing CB.  

Here is a thought about the value of RBs:  If every defense in the league is built primarily to stop the pass, running the ball might be a pretty useful way to attack opposing defenses.

[Superduperman]

It's not that RB's don't have value to a team. The thing is that there are very many of them, they can have success even if they don't have elite measurable tools, and they rarely remain healthy enough to be worth a second contract, or even a first large contract for that matter. Using a high pick on one instead of a more stable position is usually bad team-building.

Having said that, I still feel that a true superstar RB like a Barkley, Elliott, Peterson, etc. is worth being picked high, although even those guys usually don't make it to a second contract. Only thing is, you have to be right.

[Louis Friend]

On 4/25/2023 at 1:16 PM, Louis Friend said:

My instincts are telling me:

1. If the Lions stay at #6, one of CJ Stroud, Jalen Carter or Devon Witherspoon will be a Lion. 

2. Lions will trade down from #18 to the end of the first, O'Cyrus Torrence could be the player they are targeting, and it'll reduce the cap hit for the rookie contract. 

3. They will trade a pick or two for picks next year. We really don't need 9 rookies this season. Or the playing time to develop them all. 

4. Lions will double up at a position. They doubled up at DT in 2021 and tripled up at EDGE in 2022. I think OL could be a position this happens with so many question marks with our guards and increase in OL contracts. 

5. Lions will draft a WR but not early. Despite Jameson missing 6 games, Marvin, ARSB, Reynolds, Raymond is enough to tie us over. No need to divert from the plan. 

6. Brad Holmes will draft another HBCU player. With the success of James Houston and the attention of the HBCU combine, Holmes will go back to this well. Aubrey Miller and Isaiah Land are two guys to keep an eye on. 

1. Lions didn’t stay at 6, so this is moot. 

2. Lions traded down from 6 instead of at 18. I whiffed on this. 

3. They traded around for less picks but the only future pick they got was from moving Swift. 
 

4. Lions did not double up for the first time. 
 

5. Lions drafted a WR late. Nailed this. 
 

6. Only one HBCU player was drafted and it was not by us. I missed this one. 

[Louis Friend]

On 4/25/2023 at 11:16 AM, Sllim Pickens said:

I wouldn't be shocked to see us grab Jack Campbell in the first as well, hopefully with a trade down.  I know LB is lower on the teams list of importance but he has all of the stats, athleticism, grades etc to be a late first and the first LB taken.  Finding a LB that can cover in zone will be huge for improving this D.  

👆

[rob_shadows]

Finally watched the Holmes pressers and I'm now 100% positive the original plan was Witherspoon at 6 and Gibbs at 18. He pretty much says it without directly saying it.

Sucks that Seattle took our guy but unfortunately that's the way the draft goes sometimes.

[General Tso]

4 minutes ago, rob_shadows said:

Finally watched the Holmes pressers and I'm now 100% positive the original plan was Witherspoon at 6 and Gibbs at 18. He pretty much says it without directly saying it.

Sucks that Seattle took our guy but unfortunately that's the way the draft goes sometimes.

Took our playoff spot, then they took our guy

Cue *he can't keep getting away with it" meme

[diehardlionfan]

The most entertaining aspect of the draft was watching posters heads explode when Gibbs and Campbell were drafted. 

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, diehardlionfan said:

The most entertaining aspect of the draft was watching posters heads explode when Gibbs and Campbell were drafted. 

I absolutely loved the Campbell pick

[cp0k2]

On 4/30/2023 at 6:00 PM, General Tso said:

Took our playoff spot, then they took our guy

Cue *he can't keep getting away with it" meme

This started before then.



Eff the ratbirds.

[nagahide13]

2 hours ago, cp0k2 said:

This started before then.



Eff the ratbirds.

To be fair, we could do this with pretty much anyone. I don't particularly want to go find more gifs of us getting screwed though.

[diehardlionfan]

23 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

I absolutely loved the Campbell pick

I like the player and I hope he becomes the Linebacker the Lions have needed forever.

Holmes has my trust. My really disappointment is simply I like big uglies. You can never have too many linemen. I’m hoping Martin works out. It wouldn’t surprise me to see some type of trade for or signing after cuts of a DT.

I can’t really argue with anything they did. Everything I read had Gibbs going 15-18 so I don’t view it as a reach. Additionally I believe the improvement to the RB room is greater, than other players offered at other positions. 

I like Campbell and again based on everything I’ve read he was worth taking at 18 rather than risk losing him.

I never like seeing a TE taken high. However at least it wasn’t a 1st round choice and happens to be a player I watched quite a bit of. I think we are going to have a renewed  appreciation for TE’s. 

Branch😳

I think Hooker has a chance to be the great pick of this draft. 

Of course the internet warriors are making outlandish claims about the incompetence of the Detroit scouting and management.

Then you go read Schein’s column and he ranks the Lions draft 3rd overall.

https://www.nfl.com/news/which-teams-won-2023-nfl-draft-eagles-texans-and-lions-headline-my-nine-favorite

Go figure.

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by diehardlionfan
Add link

[Sllim Pickens]

12 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

I like the player and I hope he becomes the Linebacker the Lions have needed forever.

Holmes has my trust. My really disappointment is simply I like big uglies. You can never have too many linemen. I’m hoping Martin works out. It wouldn’t surprise me to see some type of trade for or signing after cuts of a DT.

I can’t really argue with anything they did. Everything I read had Gibbs going 15-18 so I don’t view it as a reach. Additionally I believe the improvement to the RB room is greater, than other players offered at other positions. 

I like Campbell and again based on everything I’ve read he was worth taking at 18 rather than risk losing him.

I never like seeing a TE taken high. However at least it wasn’t a 1st round choice and happens to be a player I watched quite a bit of. I think we are going to have a renewed  appreciation for TE’s. 

Branch😳

I think Hooker has a chance to be the great pick of this draft. 

Of course the internet warriors are making outlandish claims about the incompetence of the Detroit scouting and management.

Then you go read Schein’s column and he ranks the Lions draft 3rd overall.

https://www.nfl.com/news/which-teams-won-2023-nfl-draft-eagles-texans-and-lions-headline-my-nine-favorite

Go figure.

 

Regarding that link, I think the media is a little too high on Philly's draft.  There was talk of Carter falling to 18 so grabbing him at 9 is good and I think that was a great pick for Philly but there is a lot of risk with him.  His pro day was embarrassing and if thats his work ethic, you are in trouble.  Given Holmes and DC didn't feel comfortable drafting him at 6 says a lot to me when he was supposed to be the best player in the draft at a position of need.  I would have been good taking him at 6 if we felt we trusted him and obviously we didn't clear up those red flags. 

Then the opposite for Nolan Smith and Ringo.  Both had meh tape but insane athleticism.  Both went about where they should based on their profile.  And the media jumps up and down at them adding Georgia Bulldogs to go with Davis and Nakobe Dean meanwhile Dean just put up 13 tackles in his rookie year.  Guys like Dean, Smith and Ringo slide in the draft for a reason and all of the other GMs aren't passing on them 2 and 3 times when they have good grades on them. Dean and Smith are undersized guys that are tweeners and don't have a real position in the NFL because they are too small to do what they did at Georgia in the NFL. 

Then people forget they reached on their OL pick in the 3rd as well given most had Steen ranked 60 spots lower.  I think the best part of Philly's draft was the late rounds with Ojomo and McKee but people get excited about it because they have a couple guys they drafted who had their name in the first round media talks early in the season.  They talk about how Roseman continues to have master class drafts but he has only drafted 4 players that are starters on the current team since taking over in 2019. Meanwhile Holmes has 7 from two drafts without including Jamo.  

 

 

[Just Want A Title]

55 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Regarding that link, I think the media is a little too high on Philly's draft.  There was talk of Carter falling to 18 so grabbing him at 9 is good and I think that was a great pick for Philly but there is a lot of risk with him.  His pro day was embarrassing and if thats his work ethic, you are in trouble.  Given Holmes and DC didn't feel comfortable drafting him at 6 says a lot to me when he was supposed to be the best player in the draft at a position of need.  I would have been good taking him at 6 if we felt we trusted him and obviously we didn't clear up those red flags. 

Then the opposite for Nolan Smith and Ringo.  Both had meh tape but insane athleticism.  Both went about where they should based on their profile.  And the media jumps up and down at them adding Georgia Bulldogs to go with Davis and Nakobe Dean meanwhile Dean just put up 13 tackles in his rookie year.  Guys like Dean, Smith and Ringo slide in the draft for a reason and all of the other GMs aren't passing on them 2 and 3 times when they have good grades on them. Dean and Smith are undersized guys that are tweeners and don't have a real position in the NFL because they are too small to do what they did at Georgia in the NFL. 

Then people forget they reached on their OL pick in the 3rd as well given most had Steen ranked 60 spots lower.  I think the best part of Philly's draft was the late rounds with Ojomo and McKee but people get excited about it because they have a couple guys they drafted who had their name in the first round media talks early in the season.  They talk about how Roseman continues to have master class drafts but he has only drafted 4 players that are starters on the current team since taking over in 2019. Meanwhile Holmes has 7 from two drafts without including Jamo.  

 

 

You make a good point about athletic prospects that don't have the production to match their athleticism.  I think that is the difference between how Brad Holmes evaluates players and other GMs.  He will take a highly athletic player in a heartbeat but most of that time, that player is also very productive.  Kerby Joseph is a good example.  He RAS and testing numbers were very good but you could see the increase in production from his freshman season to his senior season.  He started a lot earlier than expected due to injuries but settled in pretty well.

[Sllim Pickens]

5 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

You make a good point about athletic prospects that don't have the production to match their athleticism.  I think that is the difference between how Brad Holmes evaluates players and other GMs.  He will take a highly athletic player in a heartbeat but most of that time, that player is also very productive.  Kerby Joseph is a good example.  He RAS and testing numbers were very good but you could see the increase in production from his freshman season to his senior season.  He started a lot earlier than expected due to injuries but settled in pretty well.

My big things is that usually guys who slip that were previously thought of higher rarely work out.  Like last year everyone though Malik Willis was going to be a 1st round QB, slips to the mid third and people think its a steal.  Well one year later the Titans are trading up for a QB in the early second.  The later round guys that typically do well are guys who shoot up to the third, not ones that fall to the third.  I don't expect Ringo to have an impact for them just like Dean didn't.  Maybe Dean plays more this year but he was a 1st round prospect and the reason people loved last years draft for them was because they got him in the 3rd.  We needed a LB, and one like him who was super athletic and passed on him 3 times.  There is a reason these guys fall but the media loves the name recognition and pumps up their draft classes. 

[Just Want A Title]

This is the best quote I have seen on Day 1 of the Lions draft from Walter Football:

First-Day Winners
 

 Detroit Lions

    Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
 Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa

"The Lions have received a lot of media criticism and fan consternation for their picks on the opening night of the 2023 NFL Draft, but that criticism just illustrates how clueless many in the media actually are. Both Gibbs and Campbell were highly graded across the league. Gibbs was viewed as one of the few elite players in the 2023 NFL Draft, and other teams like the Jets were targeting him in Round 1 as well. Campbell was also in discussion for other teams in the first round and was the consensus top linebacker in the 2023 NFL Draft. Some teams picking high in Round 2 were hoping to trade back into Round 1 to land Campbell. Hence, Gibbs and Campbell were not reaches, according to teams, and the media just did not do their jobs well enough to know where those players were being valued.

Gibbs is a dynamic playmaker with game-breaking speed as a runner; he is basically a tougher version of Alvin Kamara. Like Kamara, Gibbs is a phenomenal receiver, plus Gibbs is a superb blocker. He also is a dangerous kick returner. Gibbs is a hard worker and great teammate as well who will be a real upgrade over the now-departed and oft-injured DeAndre Swift.

Campbell will be a huge upgrade for the Detroit defense. He is a tackling machine and a force as a run defender. On top of being a player who will probably average well over 100 tackles per year, Campbell is a skilled in pass coverage and possesses excellent instincts. He will be a plug-and-play upgrade at linebacker next to Alex Anzalone.

Both Gibbs and Campbell are just flat out good football players. On top of landing them, they also were able to move down to add pick 34 and get another future starter with a high second-round pick. Gibbs and Campbell could both easily contend for Rookie of the Year honors next season, so don't be surprised if the Lions have the last laugh over a lot of clueless NFL media."

https://walterfootball.com/draft2023winnerslosers.php