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2024 NFL Draft Discussion


MacReady

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3 hours ago, MacReady said:

Just remember half of Packer fandom hated Nick Collins before Dom Capers came in.

Savage has the physical ability to be an elite “free” safety. We’ve seen him flash this multiple times.

He’s shown some serious whiffs on tackling, so I don’t think he could come back and turn into some elite well-rounded safety, but I think he’s absolutely capable of becoming a plus Darren Sharper type who could take the ball away and cause a QB to second guess himself depending on our new defensive coordinator/scheme.

Unfortunately for Savage, tackling is fundamental to being a good football player especially safety, need to move on, we can do better.

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3 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

If you don't like Kinchens (and I can see why you don't), there are always the CB/S conversions, or perhaps positionally versatile is a better description. The most obvious is Cooper DeJean..............but less obvious is Terrion Arnold the Alabama CB who has played safety and is 6'0", 196, 4.45. He is seen as a good tackler (which GB needs). He is maybe an inch shorter, 8lbs lighter and a little faster than DeJean.

From Draft Buzz (my go-to site this year)  In 2023, he increased his playing time to 13 games with 780 snaps. His performance also improved with 47 tackles, 13 assists, 21 stops, alongside 12 pass breakups, 5 interceptions, and an elite quarterback rating when targeted of 52.5.

He might be there at 25, but also might go around #20.

In my latest draft attempt (nflmockdraft simulator) (no trades) I gave a little more emphasis on DBs and a bit less on O line, which got me:

CB Terrion Arnold  Alabama
RB Blake Corum Michigan
S Javon Bullard Georgia
ILB Payton Wilson N.C.State
C (G?) Sedrick Van Pran Georgia
S Jaden Hicks Washington St.
K Will Reichard Alabama

I liked every single pick here (not always the case, in fact quite rare). Also, every prospect (except Payton Wilson) was a big program guy. I missed on the slot corner Sainistril (who went quite late, at #120). Could almost (but not quite) have had him instead of Hicks (#126)
 

 

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17 minutes ago, The Truth said:

Unfortunately for Savage, tackling is fundamental to being a good football player especially safety, need to move on, we can do better.

I’m not opposed to upgrading there, but at what cost? A major free agent addition? A high draft pick?

I am in the keep Savage boat. Savage isn’t getting big money and he has flashed a lot of potential. I’m easily bringing him back on a one year deal to see what he looks like with a new coordinator. Add more to the group for sure, but keep Savage

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9 minutes ago, MacReady said:

I’m not opposed to upgrading there, but at what cost? A major free agent addition? A high draft pick?

I am in the keep Savage boat. Savage isn’t getting big money and he has flashed a lot of potential. I’m easily bringing him back on a one year deal to see what he looks like with a new coordinator. Add more to the group for sure, but keep Savage

keep savage and have him play nickle corner; it's what he's been best at IMO.

Don't keep him and have him play safety though.

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Going off of PFF data....

I'd love to bring in a quality vet FA to the safety room.  

McKinney from the Giants was the #4 safety per PFF.  And he had the highest coverage score of 91.2.

Then I'd like to bring on in to compliment him...more of an attacker.  I'll happily take the #16 ranked safety per PFF.

That safety is Darnell Savage.

Then I'd like to draft one somewhere and let that kid develop as S3.  Keep Owens and JJJ as reserves, special teams guys.

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25 minutes ago, MacReady said:

I’m not opposed to upgrading there, but at what cost? A major free agent addition? A high draft pick?

I am in the keep Savage boat. Savage isn’t getting big money and he has flashed a lot of potential. I’m easily bringing him back on a one year deal to see what he looks like with a new coordinator. Add more to the group for sure, but keep Savage

I agree with keeping Savage. I don't agree with your optimism level on Savage, but you can't turn over the entire safety room in 1 offseason. Better Savage than Owens, even if it costs us Simone Biles. 

This is all just one more reason I'm pushing for Chris Hewitt.

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48 minutes ago, MacReady said:

Savage isn’t getting big money and he has flashed a lot of potential

these are mutually exclusive (especially if you think lowly of Joe Barry)

either he's actually good and other teams can identify this and will get paid, because there's now 31 other teams who can easily do this

or

he's actually bad and other teams identify that and don't offer him

NFL is a pretty efficient market when it comes to FA in that the winner's curse is more prevalent than finding great value.

If it is the case that he could be better under another scheme, multiple teams will know this and be interested and drive up his cost.

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14 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

these are mutually exclusive (especially if you think lowly of Joe Barry)

either he's actually good and other teams can identify this and will get paid, because there's now 31 other teams who can easily do this

or

he's actually bad and other teams identify that and don't offer him

NFL is a pretty efficient market when it comes to FA in that the winner's curse is more prevalent than finding great value.

If it is the case that he could be better under another scheme, multiple teams will know this and be interested and drive up his cost.

Granted, but he’s still staying at the safety market value. Safety isn’t WR. You look at MVS and MVS cost exactly what we expected he would cost. Same with Lazard. Teams knew exactly what they were getting with MVS. An unreliable WR who is effective at keeping defenses honest. Same with Lazard. An effective blocker who isn’t quite a threat at WR.

Both followed their positional market.

There’s also the marketability aspect. Even if teams saw he had the value of Jamal Adams, they wouldn’t pay him Adams money because he’s not marketable and because he doesn’t have the hardware (pro bowls, stats, etc).

If he’s valued highly based on his tape, that changes his value by maybe a million per, but likely under that because of the safety market.

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7 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Kinchens allowed 28/34 passes completed against him, big time feast or famine guy in coverage. No way he goes top 24, might be able to get him at 41 depending on how the league views some of the other safeties. Nubin is by far the better player, but 2 years older.

Is that a PFF score, 28/34? Wonder if they were counting man or zone coverage too. 

I think he had 5 picks in each of the last 2 years. We need playmakers back there. 

I like Nubian too but at times he looks slow… in college. 

Edited by MantyWrestler
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3 hours ago, incognito_man said:

these are mutually exclusive (especially if you think lowly of Joe Barry)

either he's actually good and other teams can identify this and will get paid, because there's now 31 other teams who can easily do this

or

he's actually bad and other teams identify that and don't offer him

NFL is a pretty efficient market when it comes to FA in that the winner's curse is more prevalent than finding great value.

If it is the case that he could be better under another scheme, multiple teams will know this and be interested and drive up his cost.

Rasul Douglas? DeVondre Campbell? Rudy Ford was cut off the 53 from one of the worst teams in the NFL. That's just us and not the rest of the league examples.

Think you're giving NFL execs too much credit.

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19 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Rasul Douglas? DeVondre Campbell? Rudy Ford was cut off the 53 from one of the worst teams in the NFL. That's just us and not the rest of the league examples.

Think you're giving NFL execs too much credit.

This bolsters my point if anything. Remove GB from the picture and my story is even more convincing. 

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5 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Going off of PFF data....

I'd love to bring in a quality vet FA to the safety room.  

McKinney from the Giants was the #4 safety per PFF.  And he had the highest coverage score of 91.2.

Then I'd like to bring on in to compliment him...more of an attacker.  I'll happily take the #16 ranked safety per PFF.

That safety is Darnell Savage.

Then I'd like to draft one somewhere and let that kid develop as S3.  Keep Owens and JJJ as reserves, special teams guys.

5 safeties?  Seems like a lot of roster spots when younger draft pick guys can probably do the same or better on special teams.  Do agree they need a nice vet for stability.

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