2024 NFL Draft Discussion

[CWood21]

10 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

Why is C a high need? Meyers has been fine since Nov.

Myers certainly hasn't been good.  He's T-21st in penalties and T-4th in sacks allowed amongst centers.

[OneTwoSixFive]

@Mazrimiv

He was a turnstile for a while and I wouldn't call him 'fine' now.

Edited December 30, 2023 by OneTwoSixFive

[Scoremore]

9 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I'd still like an OT, but yes, the need is less than early season, when Walker was still struggling a bit. Rhyan might prove ok at G, but as with OT, I want another one with some starter-level talent on the roster. I disagree that the Center position is ok, I think it needs an upgrade more than anywhere else on the line. Myers is more of a below average starter who could be an above average backup. 

I'd look at an Edge in round 1 or 2 (the good ones need to have elite athleticism at this position, and therefore go early) as eventual replacement for Preston Smith (who has been having a nice season).

I'd start looking for a RB in round 2 and if I went elsewhere in that round, I'd look even harder there in round three.

I do like the idea of adding Cade Stover (TE) to the roster, but that probably takes a round 3 pick and I have other positions to fill. Mainly I want Stover for his blocking (though his speed is good). If he was there in round 4, I'd ****** him up. If I didn't get C Van Pran in the 2nd, I'd look for Frazier in the 3rd or Powers-Johnson in the 4th.

A draft with something like:
1) Edge Latu, 2a) S Nubin, 2b) OT Guyton, 3a) RB Brooks or Irving, 3b) ILB Eichenberg, 4) C Powers Johnson would be a fine start to the 2024 draft in my eyes. Add a guard somewhere soon after this and try to fill any other positions that are thin. Add a long snapper late or in FA and add a QB late. Look for value anywhere in the draft at WR and CB, as they are very strong position groups this year and there could be a bargain that supersedes the need to boost a particular position group. Maybe I'd look for a big (320+) NT around round 5-7 to spell Slaton and allow Brooks to backup only at DE.

If you consider only need and not positional value, then in order of priority, I'd go S, RB, C, CB (slot), ILB, Long Snapper, OG, Edge,  OT, WR, NT, QB. Things look very different when you DO factor in position, especially in round 1, where it is very possible to see an Edge, OT, CB/S or even WR (shock !) taken. 

As I finished typing this, I did a ProFootballNwetwork draft and got the following:
12 Edge Laiatu Latu
40 S Tyler Nubin
43 G Cooper Beebe
74 OT Tyler Guyton
88 RB Bucky Irving
111 C Jackson Powers-Johnson
173 DT/NT Nazir Stackhouse
204 CB (slot) Jaden Davis

Some of these players might rise later in the draft process, but as it stands now I though this was a draft haul that covered most of what was needed. It did fall short in getting an ILB like Edgerrin Cooper or Tommy Eichenberg. Cooper was available at #74, but I considered Guyton better value. Eichenberg was gone before #111.

As far as Edge we have LVN and Gary.  Englebare in reserve.  Thought about it also but not as pressing.  Can never have enough pass rushers tho.  Meyers is average.  But he should continue to improve.  At 111 sure take a shot maybe go for a G/C type and kill two birds with one stone.  ILB really needs to be shored up.  Campbell looks washed.  Not much behind him.  

Absolutely don't need another WR.  We have enough guys.  Same with TE we are just fine there.  DT/NT on board we could use one.  CB (slot) yah that's one of our top priorities outside of S. 

Just sucks we have no cash to supplement roster in FA.  Really when drafting BPA.  Never want to reach for need.  If Edge is BPA in round 1 well you take the guy.  Hell even if it is at WR.  Best policy.  We do have a lot of holes so not seeing this will be too much of an issue.  

[CWood21]

19 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Some of these players might rise later in the draft process, but as it stands now I though this was a draft haul that covered most of what was needed. It did fall short in getting an ILB like Edgerrin Cooper or Tommy Eichenberg. Cooper was available at #74, but I considered Guyton better value. Eichenberg was gone before #111.

I can't imagine there's any scenario in which we end up taking an EDGE with our FRP.  Don't get me wrong, I'm in the camp of that you can never have too many pass rushers.  But that'd be an embarrassment of riches at EDGE, and lacking the resources at other positions.  Trading/Releasing Preston Smith saves minimal money ($2.5M), and he's still a reliable pass rusher.  Maybe a tad overpaid, but compared to what he'd get on the open market he's probably worth keeping around.

QB obviously isn't going to be a pick made anytime on the first two days.  And maybe not even on Day 2.

RB is a major question mark.  Aaron Jones checks in with a $17.1M cap hit, which is entirely way too much for a RB of his age with the recent injury concerns.  And you combine that with the pending FA of AJ Dillon, and the only RBs the Packers could be under contract going into FA and the draft is Emanuel Wilson.  I could see the Packers looking to re-sign AJ Dillon to a modest deal (think something like 3 years, $10M similar to Samaje Perine) to help shore up the RB room.  And I think it's very possible that the Packers look towards an extension that substantially lowers Aaron Jones' cap hit, but also helps ensure he remains in Green Bay for a few more years.

WR room seems to be a bit of a personal choice.  I think there's enough collective talent in this room, I just don't think there's a true #1 WR in the room.  Watson is obviously the big play guy, Reed is your inside/utility WR, Dobbs is the steady "veteran" and Wicks has shown quite a bit of promise.  I don't foresee the Packers going WR early, but it also wouldn't surprise me if they ended up grabbing one on Day 2 to keep things interesting.

TE seems very unlikely to be picked given how well Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft have played.  Maybe a Day 3 pick is thrown that way, but anything more than that seems like overkill.

Rasheed Walker has settled down in the LT position, and while I don't think he's done anything recently to suggest that the Packers need to be actively replacing him.  But I also don't think he's done anything to suggest that we shouldn't look to improve.  Zach Tom has played really well at RT, and probably sticks there unless the Packers decide to flip him over to LT.

Elgton Jenkins is still in the midst of his extension, and while he hasn't been great he's been a rock solid LG.  On the other side, Jon Runyan is a pending FA and struggles to run block in any capacity.  On the other side, Sean Rhyan has been a good run blocker, but doesn't offer a ton in pass protection.  Ultimately, RG probably could stand to be upgrade, but it's likely that Rhyan likely gets a chance to win that RG spot outright.  Josh Myers hasn't been good for a 2nd round center.  He's been a solid center at best.  Given what the Packers invested into the position, he's probably going to have the starting C position next year but competition is absolutely warranted.

On the defensive line, defensive tackle might be a sneaky need and given that it's a poor IDL class it doesn't bode well for the Packers.  Kenny Clark is a FA after the year, and he's got a big $27.5M cap hit that probably needs to be lowered.  And while he's only 29 years old, the Packers probably aren't interested in paying him much into his mid-to-late 30s so it's probably his last big extension in Green Bay.  Devonte Wyatt has shown some flashes as an interior pass rusher, but needs to be more consistent as a run defender.  Karl Brooks clearly has a role as an interior pass rusher, but doesn't offer much as a run defender.  TJ Slaton has been arguably one of the more improved defensive players, but he's a FA after next season.  The Packers also drafted Colby Wooden last year, and hopefully he can make a 2nd year jump.

I've already touched on the EDGE position, but ILB seems like it could be a bigger need.  Campbell has struggled with injuries, and he's a potential cap casualty this offseason.  And McDuffie is also a FA, so if Campbell is let go then McDuffie's FA status could be an even bigger issue.  Quay Walker has shown some flashes, but still wildly inconsistent and doesn't always play up to his physical skillset.  I'd imagine there's probably a Day 2 or early Day 3 pick used on this position.

CB is a MASSIVE need even if you believe the Packers have no interest in trading Jaire Alexander.  Carrington Valentine has shown some flashes, but he absolutely looks like a rookie CB.  Maybe a Y2 jump is in order, but it seems unwise to rely on him.  Beyond those two, I'm not sure anyone has given the Packers any faith in that CB room.  Keisean Nixon has shown he's nothing more than a dime corner and return man, so he needs to be moved back down the board.  Eric Stokes is likely a camp casualty if he isn't healthy.

As of right now, the only safeties the Packers have under contract for 2024 is Zayne Anderson and Anthony Johnson Jr.  The Packers absolutely will add to this room.

[OneTwoSixFive]

I had another draft bearing in mind what @CWood21 said. Came up with.
CB/S Cooper DeJean, S Tyler Nubin, RB Trey  Benson, C Zach Frazier, DT Maason Smith, ILB Junior Colson, G Zak Zinter (great name there), CB Jaden Davis.

[squire12]

28 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

And McDuffie is also a FA, so if Campbell is let go then McDuffie's FA status could be an even bigger issue.  

McDuffie not a FA until 2025.

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, squire12 said:

McDuffie not a FA until 2025.

You're right.  Not sure why I had him as a FA this offseason.

[squire12]

Just now, CWood21 said:

You're right.  Not sure why I had him as a FA this offseason.

Too many players to keep track of.  

I think it will be interesting what a hopefully new DC in GB will want the defensive roster to look like.  

Might be more DL.  Might be a upper tier ILB.  Might be CB or Safety that is viewed as the key piece to their D scheme. 

I would be hesitant to push more money out on Clark contract.  His age is fine, but there are a lot of snaps played on that body and for as good as Clark has been, i don't think he has been good enough/ great to warrant a 3rd contract.

[Packerraymond]

36 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I can't imagine there's any scenario in which we end up taking an EDGE with our FRP.  

Why? The only position we will take in round one based on history is QB, OT, DL, EDGE, DB. Can eliminate QB from that list. There really isn't a DL worthy of a top 20 pick, thus we're left with OT, EDGE, DB. 

I would say EDGE is 3rd most likely of that group, but I'd still say there's a say 20% chance we go EDGE vs 40 for OT and DB. Certainly far from "can't imagine any scenario."

I'm not saying no to Verse or Turner if they are BPA at our pick.

[HokieHigh]

My problem with simulators right now is that the packers are going to pick 20 or after. We arent going to be in the running for those top 12-14 prospects.

 

[ChaRisMa]

5 minutes ago, HokieHigh said:

My problem with simulators right now is that the packers are going to pick 20 or after. We arent going to be in the running for those top 12-14 prospects.

 

Draft guys that should be available at 20 then. I’m taking Kinchens at 12 right now thinking we’re getting him around 20 uncontested.

[Old Guy]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Why? The only position we will take in round one based on history is QB, OT, DL, EDGE, DB. Can eliminate QB from that list. There really isn't a DL worthy of a top 20 pick, thus we're left with OT, EDGE, DB. 

I would say EDGE is 3rd most likely of that group, but I'd still say there's a say 20% chance we go EDGE vs 40 for OT and DB. Certainly far from "can't imagine any scenario."

I'm not saying no to Verse or Turner if they are BPA at our pick.

Quay Walker wanted me to correct you! 

Absolutely down with Turner, It's an easy pass on Verse. He's not special at anything. Watch a lot of FSU, dude was non-existent in many games. 

Every one of these draft sites have him sliding down their boards. 

Turner, I'm all in, best pure EDGE pass rusher in the draft. 

 

[Old Guy]

14 minutes ago, HokieHigh said:

My problem with simulators right now is that the packers are going to pick 20 or after. We aren't going to be in the running for those top 12-14 prospects.

 

It's a coin toss as to whether we go 2-0 or 0-2 the next two weeks. No CB's against Justin Jefferson. Joe Barry won't hold him to under a buck seventy-five. Not to mention Jaren Hall is up for offensive player of the week. 

You know how well we've fared against running quarterbacks too. The Bears game is no lock. 

[Isherwood]

3 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

@Mazrimiv

He was a turnstile for a while and I wouldn't call him 'fine' now.

I would take a C if the opportunity presents itself. I wouldn’t chase one by trading into a spot, I think. There’s some nice guys in the day 2 range and if they’re sitting at our last top 100 pick, I’d think about it. 

[Packerraymond]

1 hour ago, Old Guy said:

Quay Walker wanted me to correct you! 

Absolutely down with Turner, It's an easy pass on Verse. He's not special at anything. Watch a lot of FSU, dude was non-existent in many games. 

Every one of these draft sites have him sliding down their boards. 

Turner, I'm all in, best pure EDGE pass rusher in the draft. 

 

Jared Verse had 35 hurries this year with a 20.8% pass rush win rate, Dallas Turner had 32 hurries with a 20.4% win rate.

Verse is timed in the 21.2 mph range at 260+ with a 450lb bench and a 575lb squat. "Not special at anything" lol. Dude is built like a Bosa brother and is more athletic than them too. Just need to see an arm length on him before I know where to place him, but the tape says he's 1A/1B to Turner.