The 2024 Draft. Tonight's the night...

[Captain Relax]

12 minutes ago, Morlee said:

What would it take to get Washington’s pick? I do believe the Vikings want Daniels. 
 

I only think that’s possible if they get up to 2nd overall. If you can’t get that pick, I’d hope they would remain at 11. 

It will be expensive and unlikely to move up that far.  I think Daniels is the best QB in the draft. I also think the Commanders think Daniels is the best QB in the draft.  If a team comes to them and gives up their whole draft, Washington will listen.  But, as I said, thats expensive and unlikely. 

[VikeManDan]

At an absolute bare minimum I'd expect talks to begin with 1.11 + 1.23 + 2025 1st for a move up to 1.2.

[vikesfan89]

15 minutes ago, Captain Relax said:

It will be expensive and unlikely to move up that far.  I think Daniels is the best QB in the draft. I also think the Commanders think Daniels is the best QB in the draft.  If a team comes to them and gives up their whole draft, Washington will listen.  But, as I said, thats expensive and unlikely. 

I'd give up the Vikings whole draft this year to get up to 2. Someone can do the math but wouldn't that be quite a bit less than giving up the 2 firsts this year and the 1st next year?

[swede700]

Here's a worst-case scenario.   I don't think I've ever had him show up in one of my mocks though, because he generally gets picked in the 2nd or 3rd, where they don't have any picks. 

 

[vikesfan89]

I feel bad for any QB that's gets drafted by the Patriots at 3. I don't have a great feeling with a QB being pared up with Mayo, a defensive coach that has mostly just played and coached for 1 guy. It might not be the smoothest transition.  Plus they don't have much talent.  I do think he has a lot of potential as a coach but I think it would have been good for him to spend some more time in other organizations

It probably won't be much worse than what Jones had to work with though

[vikesfan89]

31 minutes ago, swede700 said:

Here's a worst-case scenario.   I don't think I've ever had him show up in one of my mocks though, because he generally gets picked in the 2nd or 3rd, where they don't have any picks. 

 

Worst case scenario would be all of the QBs being gone by 23 so that take him in the first round. 

Maybe he falls to the 4th and they take him as a developmental backup

Edited April 18 by vikesfan89

[VikeManDan]

28 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

I'd give up the Vikings whole draft this year to get up to 2. Someone can do the math but wouldn't that be quite a bit less than giving up the 2 firsts this year and the 1st next year?

Our entire 2024 draft is worth 2206.8 points on the JJ chart. The #2 pick is valued at 2600 so we aren't even in the same ballpark. 393 points short which equates to pick 50-51 overall.

[swede700]

This will hopefully be me after the Vikings pick in the first round.

 

[Cearbhall]

1 hour ago, Morlee said:

What would it take to get Washington’s pick? I do believe the Vikings want Daniels. 
 

I only think that’s possible if they get up to 2nd overall. If you can’t get that pick, I’d hope they would remain at 11. 

I am not sure what you base your opinion on that Daniels is the QB that the Vikings want, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was the QB they had in mind when they positioned themselves for a possible trade up by acquiring pick #23.

I am also unsure what several people here base their opinion on that the Vikings covet McCarthy. It may also be true that McCarthy is the guy the Viking had in mind to trade up for.

It's all speculation.  None of us knows.  I am just happy to see some speculation for Daniels instead of the general perception here that has some so convinced it's McCarthy that they almost assume the Vikings would be trading up for him.

Personally, I have no idea.  I can't wait for the draft to see what happens.  It may go a long way towards shaping all of our opinions about KAM.  I've stated that I wouldn't trade up for McCarthy and might not even take him at 11, but I'll root for whoever KAM drafts.  I'll hold him more accountable for a pick he traded up to acquire than I would for a player that he drafted at 11.

[SemperFeist]

Washington’s GM basically just said that the #2 pick isn’t for sale. 

[vikesfan89]

59 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Washington’s GM basically just said that the #2 pick isn’t for sale. 

Which is what you would say if you want a team to pony up an offer that you can't refuse. I'm surprised that the Patriots gm didn't say that

[Cearbhall]

Does anyone else see similarities between the 2024 draft class and the 2021 draft class?  

2021 had one elite QB prospect and four other QB prospects with potential that had teams select them in the first round.  2021 had three WRs worth top 10 picks and one elite TE.

In 2021, three QBs were taken with the first three picks with a team trading up to take the last of those three.  It may go like that this year too.  The team that traded up for the third QB did it via a trade that occurred before the draft. The Vikings didn't make as bold of a move up, but traded into the first round seemingly to be positioned to trade up further if the QB they covet is still available at a position they can get to.

Looking at results, three QBs going in the first three picks turned out to be good fortune for the rest of the teams in the top 10; they got some good players.  The 4th QB in the 2021 draft came off the board at pick 11; he has looked much better in the NFL than the second and third QBs selected (even he isn't worth a first-round pick this year).

With this lesson from recent history, I sure hope the Vikings don't feel like they need to draft a QB unless the QB they think is worth it is available to them.  Maybe they take a risk on one at pick 11, but they shouldn't feel like they have to.

In 2021, a common thought was that the 49ers traded up to target Mac Jones.  When they didn't pick him, he slid all the way to pick 15.  Meanwhile, they settled on Trey Lance -- that didn't work out for them either.

In 2021, pick 11 and 23 were Justin Fields and Christian Darrisaw.  That wouldn't be terrible, but the Vikings may be better off flipping that around and taking the QB with the later pick.  The QBs in 2024 may pan out better than the 2021 crop, but if one of the top two QBs on the team's board isn't available in a position the Vikings can trade up for, I really hope they settle and evaluate who the best player is to take when they are scheduled to pick 11th. 

I would hate to see them pass up a Micah Parsons (12th) at 11 because they feel they need to take a Justin Fields.

I would hate even more to see the Vikings lose out on a Christian Darrisaw on top of that potential Parsons because they traded into the top five for a Trey Lance (or Mac Jones).  The thought of also giving away a first round pick the following year would be disgusting if they ended up with something like that.  They should be supremely confident in the player they are targeting before they consider making a trade up.

Which of the QBs this year can they be that confident in?

[Ozzy]

9 hours ago, Sad People said:

Having a 72% completion % in college ≠ success in the NFL.

Throwing 11 int in 2 years in college ≠ success in the NFL.

Those are lazy arguments to support a narrative.

NFLs best QBs in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen dont meet either of those thresholds.

I can just as lazily go and search for QBs who meet those thresholds who are busts in the NFL. Literally the 1st QB i looked up was Zach Wilson and he threw 12 INTs in 2 years of starting with a 73% completion percentage his final year. Both threw the same amount of TD in their 2 years starting. SOS supports JJ in that argument yes but Zach Wilson also wasnt on a team with 19 NFL players.

Beating top defenses in college when youre on a stacked team while not being asked to put the team on your back isnt exactly the best supportive argument either. This is an Alabama QB all over again JJ's just wearing blue instead crimson.

I like JJ. Dude caught my eye in 2022 as a potential NFL QB, You can go back and look for it in the college GDT here on FF. My only gripe with him is that i dont think hes worth trading up into the top 5 and letting go of 2 FRPs and then some to get him. If we could get him at #23 maybe even #11 then yeah its alot easier for me to draft him and i wouldnt have a problem with it.

EDIT: JJ at #22 on the consensus big board posted above. Looks like they agree with me. But i get it QBs get pushed up come draft day because of their value in the NFL

Of course JJ McCarthy has potential but honestly before the season started I had him as a potential returnee unless they won the National Title and he would just ride that wave and hope to get over drafted because of it.  Still he is not ready to go right now but yes I would have far less of a problem with him if they do not trade away three potential starting players to get him.  Then again with the Lewis Cine pick, obviously not all 1st rounders become starters or even play at all.  

 

With the #11 and #23 picks, they address QB with either one, be that McCarthy, Penix or Nix they could legitimately get at #11 Verse, Arnold, Fautanu, Fuaga, Mitchell or Latham.  Or with the #23 pick if QB is address at #11 they could absolutely be in play for DeJean, McKinstry, Newton, Wiggins or Murphy.  Clearly in this senario, #11 with another player outside of QB one would get better value and a better player, #23 less of a value but could be great if Nix or Penix is just sitting there waiting to be picked but then again that might not happen as well and they would totally miss out and have to trade up into the 2nd or 3rd to even get a decent QB.  

 

So tons of options and they would be far better off because of it, not to mention the 2025 1st rounder they will be getting as well.  

 

And yes it is very similar to the Alabama QBs but then again Jalen Hurts has been successful and Tua has as well.  Mac Jones not so much but the rest were not 1st round picks coming out of Bama at QB with McCarron, Coker and McElroy being National Championship winning QBs. And Alabama never had a record 18 players invited to the combine which Michigan had this year, and they had 9 the previous season so that is 27 combine invites off Michigan while JJ McCarthy was the starting QB on over the past two years.   That is a pretty stacked deck to say the least.  

 

The Cardinals, Chargers, Titans, Falcons, Bears and Jets are probably all just waiting for a team to make some foolish move to go get a QB.  And I feel all are totally find just moving back potentially and getting three 1st rounders to show for it.  Only reason that should even happen is if Drake Maye or Jaydon Daniels falls and the Commanders or Patriots pass on a QB and one of the top three fall out of the top 3 picks.  That, yes maybe is worth moving up for but even then who knows, but at least with those two they are proven passes and both are better more dangerous athletes running the football and both have more arm talent as well than McCarthy.  

 

And Zach Wilson is a good comparison because he also wowed people because of his ability to make big throws rolling outside the pocket but I would say no question Zach Wilson has far better pure arm talent and arm strength than JJ McCarthy.  And Zach Wilson also played generally in college with a solid run game, good TEs, solid OL and was supported fully, clearly that was not the case on the Jets and it is a lot harder having to carry a team, especially when protection is not great and the run game is not great either.  Zach Wilson also played against so so competition and in a COVID season so that had something to do with his improvement as well from the average seasons he had previously.  

 

[Ozzy]

49 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

Does anyone else see similarities between the 2024 draft class and the 2021 draft class?  

2021 had one elite QB prospect and four other QB prospects with potential that had teams select them in the first round.  2021 had three WRs worth top 10 picks and one elite TE.

In 2021, three QBs were taken with the first three picks with a team trading up to take the last of those three.  It may go like that this year too.  The team that traded up for the third QB did it via a trade that occurred before the draft. The Vikings didn't make as bold of a move up, but traded into the first round seemingly to be positioned to trade up further if the QB they covet is still available at a position they can get to.

Looking at results, three QBs going in the first three picks turned out to be good fortune for the rest of the teams in the top 10; they got some good players.  The 4th QB in the 2021 draft came off the board at pick 11; he has looked much better in the NFL than the second and third QBs selected (even he isn't worth a first-round pick this year).

With this lesson from recent history, I sure hope the Vikings don't feel like they need to draft a QB unless the QB they think is worth it is available to them.  Maybe they take a risk on one at pick 11, but they shouldn't feel like they have to.

In 2021, a common thought was that the 49ers traded up to target Mac Jones.  When they didn't pick him, he slid all the way to pick 15.  Meanwhile, they settled on Trey Lance -- that didn't work out for them either.

In 2021, pick 11 and 23 were Justin Fields and Christian Darrisaw.  That wouldn't be terrible, but the Vikings may be better off flipping that around and taking the QB with the later pick.  The QBs in 2024 may pan out better than the 2021 crop, but if one of the top two QBs on the team's board isn't available in a position the Vikings can trade up for, I really hope they settle and evaluate who the best player is to take when they are scheduled to pick 11th. 

I would hate to see them pass up a Micah Parsons (12th) at 11 because they feel they need to take a Justin Fields.

I would hate even more to see the Vikings lose out on a Christian Darrisaw on top of that potential Parsons because they traded into the top five for a Trey Lance (or Mac Jones).  The thought of also giving away a first round pick the following year would be disgusting if they ended up with something like that.  They should be supremely confident in the player they are targeting before they consider making a trade up.

Which of the QBs this year can they be that confident in?

Yes it is similar to that class, good high end WRs, good OL talent, a lot of QBs, elite TE.  No one will come close to Parsons on the field though, really doubt Turner and Verse could ever be that dominating.  And Surtain Jr beats out any CB in this draft easily, still is nuts Horn when over him.

 

In terms of QBs, Mac Jones I would honestly take Nix and Penix over Mac all day long.  And absolutely no way would I ever take JJ McCarthy over Justin Fields, Fields was big time elite coming out of Ohio State and is a better athlete than McCarthy, better arm, stronger in general, better runner and just more accomplished as a passer all around.

 

But similar yes with Wilson and Lance being drafted on potential and guys like Maye and Daniels will be drafted on potential even though Daniels is more proven with a longer track record, and Maye honestly has a higher ceiling than either Wilson or Lance coming out because he is better as a pure pocket passer and even though he can run and scramble he does not have to.  Really even with Daniels as well, he needs to run to be a bigger threat and could not just win a game only with his arm without the run threat.  That is why he was so dangerous the past few seasons, he is so hard to handle because of that.

 

In terms of WRs, I would take Waddle or Chase over Nabers all day long and really either one over Odunze as well.  Might even take DeVonta Smith over Nabers possibly but probably not over Odunze.  

 

Pitts and Bowers, not sure Bowers is that type of athlete but does suck he was hurt so much to end this past season and was not able to workout at the combine.  Possibly those injuries will linger into his pro career but still Pitts is taller, more rangy and more athletic I feel.  Bowers it will be interesting how teams use him, and not sure he is as great of an athlete as he looked like at Georgia.  Sure he is good but that team is so stacked on the OL and played such a good system that kept him free a lot and he was basically a big slot WR more often.  

 

This 2024 class is a deeper OL group and hopefully the Vikings might take one of them with a 1st round pick to fill that OG spot with a swing player that can transition to OT later on.  More high level OTs though and more depth in 2024 compared to 2021 which was pretty solid as well.  

 

Crazy thing would be, with Sam Darnold who would be better as the starter, he or Mac Jones.  That is a tough one, lucky for the Vikings they are only one year apart in age even though Darnold has played 3 more seasons in the NFL than Jones.  But if the Vikings are this QB paradise then almost anyone should succeed with talent more than the likes of Dobbs and Mullens.  

[Captain Relax]

11 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Of course JJ McCarthy has potential but honestly before the season started I had him as a potential returnee unless they won the National Title and he would just ride that wave and hope to get over drafted because of it.  Still he is not ready to go right now but yes I would have far less of a problem with him if they do not trade away three potential starting players to get him.  Then again with the Lewis Cine pick, obviously not all 1st rounders become starters or even play at all.  

 

With the #11 and #23 picks, they address QB with either one, be that McCarthy, Penix or Nix they could legitimately get at #11 Verse, Arnold, Fautanu, Fuaga, Mitchell or Latham.  Or with the #23 pick if QB is address at #11 they could absolutely be in play for DeJean, McKinstry, Newton, Wiggins or Murphy.  Clearly in this senario, #11 with another player outside of QB one would get better value and a better player, #23 less of a value but could be great if Nix or Penix is just sitting there waiting to be picked but then again that might not happen as well and they would totally miss out and have to trade up into the 2nd or 3rd to even get a decent QB.  

 

So tons of options and they would be far better off because of it, not to mention the 2025 1st rounder they will be getting as well.  

 

And yes it is very similar to the Alabama QBs but then again Jalen Hurts has been successful and Tua has as well.  Mac Jones not so much but the rest were not 1st round picks coming out of Bama at QB with McCarron, Coker and McElroy being National Championship winning QBs. And Alabama never had a record 18 players invited to the combine which Michigan had this year, and they had 9 the previous season so that is 27 combine invites off Michigan while JJ McCarthy was the starting QB on over the past two years.   That is a pretty stacked deck to say the least.  

 

The Cardinals, Chargers, Titans, Falcons, Bears and Jets are probably all just waiting for a team to make some foolish move to go get a QB.  And I feel all are totally find just moving back potentially and getting three 1st rounders to show for it.  Only reason that should even happen is if Drake Maye or Jaydon Daniels falls and the Commanders or Patriots pass on a QB and one of the top three fall out of the top 3 picks.  That, yes maybe is worth moving up for but even then who knows, but at least with those two they are proven passes and both are better more dangerous athletes running the football and both have more arm talent as well than McCarthy.  

 

And Zach Wilson is a good comparison because he also wowed people because of his ability to make big throws rolling outside the pocket but I would say no question Zach Wilson has far better pure arm talent and arm strength than JJ McCarthy.  And Zach Wilson also played generally in college with a solid run game, good TEs, solid OL and was supported fully, clearly that was not the case on the Jets and it is a lot harder having to carry a team, especially when protection is not great and the run game is not great either.  Zach Wilson also played against so so competition and in a COVID season so that had something to do with his improvement as well from the average seasons he had previously.  

 

Yeah...in many ways Zach Wilson is a cautionary figure.  However, Wilson was never going to be a difference maker for the Jets.  1) he was/is somewhat immature and throwing him into the NY market only magnified his immaturity. 2) He has had terrible coaching from the Jets. 3) He played behind possibly the worst line in football. 4) He started way before he was ready.

If McCarthy should be drafted by the Vikings he will be in a market that will be easier to navigate than NY.  He will undoubtedly have better coaching from O'Connell and McGown. The Vikings offensive line is much superior to the Jets.  Hopefully, he would be able to sit and learn behind Darnold for the season allowing him to develop in a way that Wilson never did.  Of course nothing is guaranteed.