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Why did ___________ turn out good against expectations?


dll2000

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Playing off why did ______ bust?

Why did people think this guy was no good and miss on him in draft?

Off top of my head is obvious example is Tom Brady

But there is also Kurt Warner.

Antonio Brown (before he went mental)

Shannon Sharpe

James Harrison

Joe Montana

Richard Dent ...

You could also include people that were or are good and not necessarily great -  like Dak Prescott and Tony Romo.

Are their lessons to be learned or was it solid reasoning to be repeated and guy was just an unpredictable outlier?
 

 

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Jared Allen wasn't too highly rated by The Sporting News (in their 2004 draft guide). Neither was Tony Romo (in their 2003 guide. They had a lot of bad QB's rated ahead of him). 

Also, nobody saw Terrell Davis turning out to be what he ended up being. Heck, he was so discouraged before Denver's first 1995 pre-season game in Tokyo that he tried to get on a plane and go back home. However, when he called to book a flight, he couldn't because he didn't speak Japanese. Lucky him (and the Broncos). 

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From the Cardinals, I got a couple solid ones. Budda Baker was considered a super good safety, was the favorite prospect of several people I knew, ended up sliding to round 2. I know he was still drafted high for his position, but still. He has like 3 or 4 First-Team All-Pros already. 

Also, Jalen Thompson. Dude was a consensus 2nd round talent, was in the Supplemental Draft and I think we used a mid 6th to get him? Why didn't anyone spend anything higher on him?

Zach Allen and Josh Jones are two more players that are pretty good but haven't had huge statistical seasons yet. But they're exactly what the optimists thought they were pre-draft. Why did they slide and why are they successful in the NFL?

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11 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Going by draft position, 5th round or later 2015 - 2021

Tyreek Hill (5th)
Trey Smith (6th)

Dak Prescott (5th)

George Kittle (5th)

Matt Judon (5th)

Stephon Diggs (5th)

That one’s easy. He was just a medical red flag. Everyone pretty much agreed he was a second rounder at least if he didn’t have the blood clot issues.

So far, those issues haven’t kept him off the field, so they’re getting the player everyone knew he was.

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I would be interested to see college tape or scouting reports to see why they thought they wouldn't be good.

Some of them I know.  Tyreek Hill had serious off field issues.   So a lot of teams probably took him off their board.   Even with that, they probably didn't see him being THAT good.  

But George Kittle was flat missed.  Maybe just because he didn't have big numbers.  I don't know.   A lot of guys get drafted without big stats.  

 He was good early, especially for a TE.   So scouts and GMs flat missed something in scouting.

 

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3 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I would be interested to see college tape or scouting reports to see why they thought they wouldn't be good.

Some of them I know.  Tyreek Hill had serious off field issues.   So a lot of teams probably took him off their board.   Even with that, they probably didn't see him being THAT good.  

But George Kittle was flat missed.  Maybe just because he didn't have big numbers.  I don't know.   A lot of guys get drafted without big stats.  

 He was good early, especially for a TE.   So scouts and GMs flat missed something in scouting.

 

I loved Kittle. I had a 3rd round grade on him, with ++s for Athletic potential. I had a 1st on Kelce. 

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5 minutes ago, scar988 said:

I loved Kittle. I had a 3rd round grade on him, with ++s for Athletic potential. I had a 1st on Kelce. 

NFL had him as a 3rd. 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/travis-kelce/32004b45-4c01-2458-b7b6-3a14cdb414dd

Overview
Kelce has been a tremendous run blocker throughout his career for the Bearcats, but really elevated his game as a receiver in his senior season. He isn't a tremendous athlete, but he does a lot of things very well. It's a deep tight end class, but Kelce's play suggests that he should be highly sought after.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1605609-travis-kelce-scouting-report-nfl-outlook-for-cincinnati-te

Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs

Third Round: 63rd Pick

Most tight end draft boards are going to be led by Notre Dame's Tyler Eifert and Stanford's Zach Ertz. Travis Kelce hasn't been healthy enough to jostle either of those guys out of the catbird seats at the Senior Bowl or the NFL Scouting Combine. Still, the Cincinnati tight end could appeal more than Eifert or Ertz to a team that is looking for a tight end with a mean streak who can still stretch the field, a la Rob Gronkowski.

Kittle - NFL

Overview

H-back type who lacks the desired size for in-line blocking but certainly has the technique and willingness to do it. He has good hands and flashes an ability to challenge as a pass catcher on all three levels. Kittle has the athleticism and blocking ability to become an effective move tight end if paired in the right system.

Strengths

Has broad shoulders and waist with a durable frame

Plays in pro-style attack and approaches blocking like an offensive lineman

Comes off the ball with good pad level and strikes with leverage and hands inside opponent's frame

Blocks with good technique and has footwork to get to reach blocks and combos

Hands are confident and sure with just one drop against 48 catches

Able to make sudden body adjustments to poorly thrown balls

Flashes vertical speed to become a seam worker

Physical runner after the catch with more wiggle than you would expect

Weaknesses

Patterns are inconsistent and he rarely tilts defenders at the top of his routes

Could generate better separation with improved route leverage

Route breaks can be too easy to decipher

Plays fast but seems to be missing separation burst coming out of his breaks

Needs to work back to the ball harder in space

Allows defenders a pathway to the throw rather than sealing them out of the passing lane

Has tendency to keep weight too far forward as run blocker creating opportunity for defender to pull him off-balance

 

 

 

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Antonio Brown fell because he was mental.  He was athletically gifted and could cut on a dime but Emmanuel Saunders predicted what would happen when they gave him the money.  The players knew what sort of person he was.  

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51 minutes ago, jebrick said:

Antonio Brown fell because he was mental.  He was athletically gifted and could cut on a dime but Emmanuel Saunders predicted what would happen when they gave him the money.  The players knew what sort of person he was.  

Yup. People love to say the Burfict hit caused him to go crazy. Naw. He had issues back in college.

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29 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Josh Allen comes to mind. In all my years scouring the NFL Draft forum he was the guy receiving the most hate that was drafted so highly, myself included 

Because he was the classic big armed, tall QB that needed work.  Those have always been boom or bust, and almost always busted.  He's the one that finally boomed.

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