Runningback market is brutal

[jebrick]

This question got me thinking if we will see any RB drafted 2010 and beyond make it to the HOF. There is no active RB in the top 20 rushers in the NFL ( currently).  Derek Henry is 42 on the list.  Zeke is 43.  Those are the highest active RB.  Do we see any of them having a HOF career?

[TheKillerNacho]

13 hours ago, jebrick said:

This question got me thinking if we will see any RB drafted 2010 and beyond make it to the HOF. There is no active RB in the top 20 rushers in the NFL ( currently).  Derek Henry is 42 on the list.  Zeke is 43.  Those are the highest active RB.  Do we see any of them having a HOF career?

Henry probably has the best shot, I'd think - but he'd still need to keep it up for another couple years to have a shot. Nick Chubb is currently on pace for consideration, too.

CMC would've had a real shot if he didn't get hurt in 2020 and 2021. But alas.

[Kiwibrown]

19 hours ago, jebrick said:

This question got me thinking if we will see any RB drafted 2010 and beyond make it to the HOF. There is no active RB in the top 20 rushers in the NFL ( currently).  Derek Henry is 42 on the list.  Zeke is 43.  Those are the highest active RB.  Do we see any of them having a HOF career?

There is a huge log jam. With 2k yards they all push up to 3or so. 

 

With 3k Henry gets a lot higher too.

[jebrick]

10 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Henry probably has the best shot, I'd think - but he'd still need to keep it up for another couple years to have a shot. Nick Chubb is currently on pace for consideration, too.

CMC would've had a real shot if he didn't get hurt in 2020 and 2021. But alas.

To me, Henry needs to end his career with at least 12K yards to have a chance.  That gets him close to top 10 and it would still not be a slam dunk.

[Kiwibrown]

On 6/18/2023 at 2:08 AM, jebrick said:

To me, Henry needs to end his career with at least 12K yards to have a chance.  That gets him close to top 10 and it would still not be a slam dunk.

Imo Henry is one good season away from being a hof lock. 

Not much competition from other runningbacks in his Era, he has legendary moments and seasons.

[MWil23]

On 6/13/2023 at 12:51 AM, Leoric said:

LDT was an all time great and averages 5.5m a year over his career. His big deal… 60m/8 yes with an aav of 7.5m. Ekeler makes more than that for this season but the RB position just isn’t worth it. When you see how guys like Emmit and Bettis move after football… it’s criminal. 

That was almost 20 years ago though, and not adjusting for inflation makes that a bit over simplistic, especially with built in raises for all players and an increase in the salary cap.

[43M]

On 6/17/2023 at 10:08 AM, jebrick said:

To me, Henry needs to end his career with at least 12K yards to have a chance.  That gets him close to top 10 and it would still not be a slam dunk.

They will probably grade on a curve for modern RBs.

You aren't wrong that most modern RBs have no chance, but I also don't think they necessarily need to stack up to RBs of yesteryear statistically to make the HOF.   Its a different game.   Its like comparing stats of QBs in the dead ball era to modern QBs.    RBs of today cant necessarily be held to same standards as RBs who played when running games were the focal points of most offenses.

That being said, there will be a sharp drop off in the amount of RBs inducted.   Not just due to the devaluation of the position and running games in general, but most OL who come out these days are more finesse blockers who are primarily taught to pass block.    Very few old school road graders anymore, which directly impacts the statistical success of RBs in the league.

[Jakuvious]

On 6/16/2023 at 8:49 AM, jebrick said:

This question got me thinking if we will see any RB drafted 2010 and beyond make it to the HOF. There is no active RB in the top 20 rushers in the NFL ( currently).  Derek Henry is 42 on the list.  Zeke is 43.  Those are the highest active RB.  Do we see any of them having a HOF career?

They need to shift their benchmarks, basically. Same as they need to raise the standards from a bulk stat perspective for QBs, they'll need to lower it for RBs. Open up to the idea of guys like Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, Derrick Henry (assuming he winds down soon), Nick Chubb, CMC with another 2 or 3 years, etc. Not going to get guys anymore with 3000 carries and 12 years of being a workhorse back. So they need to open up a bit more to guys who were incredibly efficient and physically gifted, even if they only maybe had like 5 years where that elite talent really shined through. Otherwise yeah, you won't see a RB in the hall of fame anymore.

There's similar things at other spots too, for what it's worth. Interceptions are in a similar place. Passing games have gotten far too efficient and most teams use far too much short passing for us to really see guys with 50+ career interceptions any more, unless they really stick around forever. I think Asante Samuel was the last guy to hit that mark. For guys who really played in the 2010s, you have Reggie Nelson at 91st, and Richard Sherman at 104th. Your highest active players are Devin McCourty, Harrison Smith, and Patrick Peterson, with 35, 34, and 34 respectively, at 129th and 145th all-time. And they're all clearly wrapping up their careers at this point. Marcus Peters is probably the best breakout INT guy we saw in the 2010s, but he's at just 32 and is unsigned right now. So we'll never see DBs hitting huge numbers there anymore.

 

[Chiefs_5627]

Take from it what you will: 

 

[HerbertGOAT]

On 6/16/2023 at 8:49 AM, jebrick said:

This question got me thinking if we will see any RB drafted 2010 and beyond make it to the HOF. There is no active RB in the top 20 rushers in the NFL ( currently).  Derek Henry is 42 on the list.  Zeke is 43.  Those are the highest active RB.  Do we see any of them having a HOF career?

It's gonna have to be all-purpose yardage and accolade based from now on.

[BroncoSojia]

On 6/19/2023 at 2:22 PM, Jakuvious said:

They need to shift their benchmarks, basically. Same as they need to raise the standards from a bulk stat perspective for QBs, they'll need to lower it for RBs. Open up to the idea of guys like Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, Derrick Henry (assuming he winds down soon), Nick Chubb, CMC with another 2 or 3 years, etc. Not going to get guys anymore with 3000 carries and 12 years of being a workhorse back. So they need to open up a bit more to guys who were incredibly efficient and physically gifted, even if they only maybe had like 5 years where that elite talent really shined through. Otherwise yeah, you won't see a RB in the hall of fame anymore.

There's similar things at other spots too, for what it's worth. Interceptions are in a similar place. Passing games have gotten far too efficient and most teams use far too much short passing for us to really see guys with 50+ career interceptions any more, unless they really stick around forever. I think Asante Samuel was the last guy to hit that mark. For guys who really played in the 2010s, you have Reggie Nelson at 91st, and Richard Sherman at 104th. Your highest active players are Devin McCourty, Harrison Smith, and Patrick Peterson, with 35, 34, and 34 respectively, at 129th and 145th all-time. And they're all clearly wrapping up their careers at this point. Marcus Peters is probably the best breakout INT guy we saw in the 2010s, but he's at just 32 and is unsigned right now. So we'll never see DBs hitting huge numbers there anymore.

 

LeSean McCoy (who I thought was borderline w/o taking the era into account) should be a shoe in if this happens.

[jebrick]

23 hours ago, HerbertGOAT said:

It's gonna have to be all-purpose yardage and accolade based from now on.

Highest RB all-purpose yards is Zeke ( ranked 140th) but if you consider Cordarrelle Patterson he gets to 74th with 12,941.

 

For a HOF?  Pro Bowl would not count.  Only all Pro.

Edited July 8, 2023 by jebrick

[Kiwibrown]

On 7/8/2023 at 6:14 AM, Chiefs_5627 said:

Take from it what you will: 

 

Interesting. Not sure what sure what to make now it. 

A lot is either play calling or line driven.

[Kiwibrown]

Teams are not interested in running the ball at 4 ypc like they used to be. 4 ypc used to be okay, now they have to hit at least 4.5 ypc to be considered useful. 

There isnt room for a former great runningback to pound away at 3.7-4 ypc and sell some tickets like Emmitt in Arizona 

[ChaRisMa]

I asked a former coordinator for Northwestern about this problem. He gave an example for one of his own players--Justin Jackson. Jackson had over 2,000 carries before turning pro with him in high school and college. Doesn't include the damage done from grade 2 until high school. They're just broken by the time the get pro. And no, no one needs to do anything about it. Players are confusing production and fame with value. Being the guy carrying the rock is only as important as all the blocking. Even though they get statistics, they aren't the one earning them as often as they think.