The 2024 Commanders NFL Draft Thread

[lavar703]

7 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I’m not a huge fan of trading up either.

But I do have to say, the Chiefs and Bills are both perennial contenders because they chose the QB over the additional draft picks. Though at a lesser cost, the Ravens are perennial contenders because they chose the QB over the additional picks. In a sort of inverse fashion, the Bengals and Jaguars will both be perennial contenders because they chose the QB over the additional draft picks. And in an even more circuitous route, the Texans are set up to contend long-term because they chose the QB (Watson) over the additional draft picks.

The point is, accumulating more draft picks is almost always the right approach. The one time it’s not the most important thing, in my view, is when you balance it against the chance to acquire a genuine superstar QB. There’s nothing in team-building that remotely compares to the value a QB provides — the quality of your QB play sets both the floor and the ceiling for your team.

In this instance, as I said, I don’t think the Bears will end up being willing to trade the right to take Caleb Williams for all of King Midas’s silver. But if they were willing to? I think we’d have to take a long, long look at the price tag. If his personality/mentality “idiosyncrasies” check out, there’s really not a significant weakness in his game. He fumbles too much, I guess (because he keeps plays alive for a day and a half). Otherwise, I think he’s special.

Obviously, you only pay the steep price associated with any move from 4 to 1 (or 2) if you’re convinced the player has a realistic chance to be Special™️. I’m not currently convinced about Maye or Daniels in that way, though at one time I did feel more strongly about Maye than the recent box scores have suggested I should. And so I wouldn’t want to move up for them, and if you (or the new FO) don’t feel that way about Williams, then you shouldn’t want to move up for him either. 
 

But I guess the biggest point is that it has to be about the evaluation of the player. Surely if 22-year-old Peyton Manning was draft eligible this year, it would be wise for us to explore trying to move up to get him. Or John Elway or Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow or [insert other bona fide gold standard slam dunk #1 pick QB]. The point is…if we don’t think it’s worth paying a big price to get Caleb Williams, it should be because of how we evaluate Caleb Williams. Not because we’re just patently unwilling to trade up for a QB under any circumstances.

What’s the move up going to cost us? At least next years first. Probably one of our second and thirds this year to go along with it. That’s quite a bit to give up for a team that needs to be able to put a team around him. 

[lavar703]

1 hour ago, MikeT14 said:

Closest I could find:

If the Chiefs didn't give up much in your eyes, then the Bills only giving up an additional two 2nds for Allen doesn't count either.

Semantics on Watson I think. Didn't work out, but not because he wasn't talented, and they got a haul in return. 

Probably going all the way back to Eli but back then it wasn't much. 

If all we had to give up was our two 2nd rounders then I’d be all for it. I hate giving away future first round picks. I wouldn’t want to part with our second rounders but if that’s the cost to jump to 1 then I’d be fine with it. You still have the two thirds and a ton of cap space and you keep all your picks the following season. 

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, lavar703 said:

What was the last team that sold the farm for a QB to move up in the draft and it turned out being a success? The chiefs I don’t think count because their roster was pretty damn good and they moved up from way down in the first round and really didn’t give up much. 

The Rams went to the Super Bowl with Goff, and then traded him for the QB who they won the Super Bowl with. And the Eagles went to the Super Bowl “with” Wentz. Not resounding successes, but they got some real ROI on their moves.

And do we really think that the Mahomes and Allen trade-ups only worked out because the price was marginally lower? Those guys would have failed if they had to get by without Ed Oliver (who the Bills drafted with their 1st the next year after taking Allen) or Frank Clark (who the Chiefs traded their next 1st rounder for)? They’d absolutely both still be top tier superstars, on their way directly to the HOF 5 years after they retire.

I think we have a tendency to overrate what the likely outcome is from these big draft pick trades. You’re giving up lottery tickets. Valuable lottery tickets, maybe, but at most you’re giving up the chance to select someone good with these picks — along with the very real risk that whomever you pick turns out to be a bum. Even our trade for RGIII, which failed miserably for us, what did the Rams do with it?

Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins, Isaiah Pead, Alec Ogletree, Zac Stacy, Greg Robinson. Brockers is the only one who even got a second contract from the team, and they got a grand total of zero Pro Bowl appearances out of the whole deal.
 

In this case, realistically, I think the point is that teams usually won’t move off these Special™️ QB prospects for any price. Like Luck and Lawrence and Burrow. No one was ever going to be able to pry that pick out of the cold dead hands of its natural owner. And that’s what I think will happen with the Bears, but they are in a slightly stranger position than most, picking first while they already have a pretty decent young mega-talent QB on their roster. Maybe they’ll be willing to move it?

Which, again, leads to the question of whether the player we’re talking about belongs in the Special™️ category or not. That’s what really matters, I think.

[MikeT14]

27 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

What’s the move up going to cost us? At least next years first. Probably one of our second and thirds this year to go along with it. That’s quite a bit to give up for a team that needs to be able to put a team around him. 

If we could get Caleb for an extra 1st, 2nd, 3rd, do it. Use your cap space to fill those holes. That sounds too cheap, and maybe you were talking about someone else, but for Caleb? Punch that lottery ticket. 

[lavar703]

24 minutes ago, e16bball said:

The Rams went to the Super Bowl with Goff, and then traded him for the QB who they won the Super Bowl with. And the Eagles went to the Super Bowl “with” Wentz. Not resounding successes, but they got some real ROI on their moves.

And do we really think that the Mahomes and Allen trade-ups only worked out because the price was marginally lower? Those guys would have failed if they had to get by without Ed Oliver (who the Bills drafted with their 1st the next year after taking Allen) or Frank Clark (who the Chiefs traded their next 1st rounder for)? They’d absolutely both still be top tier superstars, on their way directly to the HOF 5 years after they retire.

I think we have a tendency to overrate what the likely outcome is from these big draft pick trades. You’re giving up lottery tickets. Valuable lottery tickets, maybe, but at most you’re giving up the chance to select someone good with these picks — along with the very real risk that whomever you pick turns out to be a bum. Even our trade for RGIII, which failed miserably for us, what did the Rams do with it?

Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins, Isaiah Pead, Alec Ogletree, Zac Stacy, Greg Robinson. Brockers is the only one who even got a second contract from the team, and they got a grand total of zero Pro Bowl appearances out of the whole deal.
 

In this case, realistically, I think the point is that teams usually won’t move off these Special™️ QB prospects for any price. Like Luck and Lawrence and Burrow. No one was ever going to be able to pry that pick out of the cold dead hands of its natural owner. And that’s what I think will happen with the Bears, but they are in a slightly stranger position than most, picking first while they already have a pretty decent young mega-talent QB on their roster. Maybe they’ll be willing to move it?

Which, again, leads to the question of whether the player we’re talking about belongs in the Special™️ category or not. That’s what really matters, I think.

Were the Bill and Chiefs rosters in the shape ours is in when they made their trades? I get what you’re saying and ultimately I’d be fine with it but people loved Bryce Young too. He’s on an awful team with no talent and no picks to help him out at all next year so his first two seasons will be wasted. Isn’t that what would essentially be happening to Caleb here? 
 

I guess what I’m saying is, all these teams were in much better shape than us when they made their trades. Our situation is much more comparable to the Panthers. I mean, good teams can make stupid trades like the 49ers trade up for Lance and not miss a beat because they found Purdy in the 7th. That doesn’t happen for us and most likely doesn’t happen for the other dregs of the league. 

Edited December 20, 2023 by lavar703

[lavar703]

15 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

If we could get Caleb for an extra 1st, 2nd, 3rd, do it. Use your cap space to fill those holes. That sounds too cheap, and maybe you were talking about someone else, but for Caleb? Punch that lottery ticket. 

So essentially you’d be giving up:

2024 1st, 2nd and 3rd

2025 1st

To move up three spots in the draft. If they think Williams is worth it then so be it but I think it’s a terrible way to start off a rebuild of an awful roster. 

[MikeT14]

36 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

So essentially you’d be giving up:

2024 1st, 2nd and 3rd

2025 1st

To move up three spots in the draft. If they think Williams is worth it then so be it but I think it’s a terrible way to start off a rebuild of an awful roster. 

If Caleb is as talented as his hype seems to say, then yes, it would be worth it. It's almost like saying you gave up #4, Sweat, Young, and a 2025 first  

[Scoundrel]

Go get your franchise QB

[ripsean21]

22 hours ago, e16bball said:

I’m not a huge fan of trading up either.

But I do have to say, the Chiefs and Bills are both perennial contenders because they chose the QB over the additional draft picks. Though at a lesser cost, the Ravens are perennial contenders because they chose the QB over the additional picks. In a sort of inverse fashion, the Bengals and Jaguars will both be perennial contenders because they chose the QB over the additional draft picks. And in an even more circuitous route, the Texans are set up to contend long-term because they chose the QB (Watson) over the additional draft picks.

The point is, accumulating more draft picks is almost always the right approach. The one time it’s not the most important thing, in my view, is when you balance it against the chance to acquire a genuine superstar QB. There’s nothing in team-building that remotely compares to the value a QB provides — the quality of your QB play sets both the floor and the ceiling for your team.

In this instance, as I said, I don’t think the Bears will end up being willing to trade the right to take Caleb Williams for all of King Midas’s silver. But if they were willing to? I think we’d have to take a long, long look at the price tag. If his personality/mentality “idiosyncrasies” check out, there’s really not a significant weakness in his game. He fumbles too much, I guess (because he keeps plays alive for a day and a half). Otherwise, I think he’s special.

Obviously, you only pay the steep price associated with any move from 4 to 1 (or 2) if you’re convinced the player has a realistic chance to be Special™️. I’m not currently convinced about Maye or Daniels in that way, though at one time I did feel more strongly about Maye than the recent box scores have suggested I should. And so I wouldn’t want to move up for them, and if you (or the new FO) don’t feel that way about Williams, then you shouldn’t want to move up for him either. 
 

But I guess the biggest point is that it has to be about the evaluation of the player. Surely if 22-year-old Peyton Manning was draft eligible this year, it would be wise for us to explore trying to move up to get him. Or John Elway or Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow or [insert other bona fide gold standard slam dunk #1 pick QB]. The point is…if we don’t think it’s worth paying a big price to get Caleb Williams, it should be because of how we evaluate Caleb Williams. Not because we’re just patently unwilling to trade up for a QB under any circumstances.

It’s like I always say. If you’re an offensive coach and your guy. The player who fits your system to a tee and has the skillset to transcend that system you move up. Otherwise you sit still and take the guy you really really like. You only move up for the player you absolutely love because they do everything and some you want to be the identity of that position on the field

[turtle28]

On 12/20/2023 at 1:41 PM, e16bball said:

The Rams went to the Super Bowl with Goff, and then traded him for the QB who they won the Super Bowl with. And the Eagles went to the Super Bowl “with” Wentz. Not resounding successes, but they got some real ROI on their moves.

And do we really think that the Mahomes and Allen trade-ups only worked out because the price was marginally lower? Those guys would have failed if they had to get by without Ed Oliver (who the Bills drafted with their 1st the next year after taking Allen) or Frank Clark (who the Chiefs traded their next 1st rounder for)? They’d absolutely both still be top tier superstars, on their way directly to the HOF 5 years after they retire.

I think we have a tendency to overrate what the likely outcome is from these big draft pick trades. You’re giving up lottery tickets. Valuable lottery tickets, maybe, but at most you’re giving up the chance to select someone good with these picks — along with the very real risk that whomever you pick turns out to be a bum. Even our trade for RGIII, which failed miserably for us, what did the Rams do with it?

Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins, Isaiah Pead, Alec Ogletree, Zac Stacy, Greg Robinson. Brockers is the only one who even got a second contract from the team, and they got a grand total of zero Pro Bowl appearances out of the whole deal.
 

In this case, realistically, I think the point is that teams usually won’t move off these Special™️ QB prospects for any price. Like Luck and Lawrence and Burrow. No one was ever going to be able to pry that pick out of the cold dead hands of its natural owner. And that’s what I think will happen with the Bears, but they are in a slightly stranger position than most, picking first while they already have a pretty decent young mega-talent QB on their roster. Maybe they’ll be willing to move it?

Which, again, leads to the question of whether the player we’re talking about belongs in the Special™️ category or not. That’s what really matters, I think.

I think the Bears are more likely to trade the talented but inconsistent Justin Fields rather than the #1 pick & the chance to draft Caleb Williams. I don't think Caleb is obtainable for us. Possibly Justin Fields is though for one of our 2nds?

I could be down for a Fields vs Howell competition next offseason & season.

[Slappy Mc]

56 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I think the Bears are more likely to trade the talented but inconsistent Justin Fields rather than the #1 pick & the chance to draft Caleb Williams. I don't think Caleb is obtainable for us. Possibly Justin Fields is though for one of our 2nds?

I could be down for a Fields vs Howell competition next offseason & season.

If we had offered the Bears, Montez Sweat straight up for Justin Fields, they would have laughed at us. Undoubtedly, if Fields is traded, it will involve at least a 1st round pick.

 

*Edit* And it should be noted, I'm not a fan at all of Fields. I don't think he is a NFL caliber QB.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Slappy Mc

[MikeT14]

3 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I think the Bears are more likely to trade the talented but inconsistent Justin Fields rather than the #1 pick & the chance to draft Caleb Williams. I don't think Caleb is obtainable for us. Possibly Justin Fields is though for one of our 2nds?

I could be down for a Fields vs Howell competition next offseason & season.

I doubt Fields goes for a 2nd but I could be wrong. 

[MikeT14]

2 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

If we had offered the Bears, Montez Sweat straight up for Justin Fields, they would have laughed at us. Undoubtedly, if Fields is traded, it will involve at least a 1st round pick.

 

*Edit* And it should be noted, I'm not a fan at all of Fields. I don't think he is a NFL caliber QB.

Just saw your post. Looks like we wildly disagree on his value! Love it. 

[offbyone]

3 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

If we had offered the Bears, Montez Sweat straight up for Justin Fields, they would have laughed at us. Undoubtedly, if Fields is traded, it will involve at least a 1st round pick.

 

*Edit* And it should be noted, I'm not a fan at all of Fields. I don't think he is a NFL caliber QB.

I would think Justin Fields' will be available for a song.  Maybe a 3rd round pick tops.  They will want to do it as soon as possible because they aren't picking up his option which means he will be on the last year of his contract. 

Like you, I don't think he is an nfl qb, maybe a backup but he isn't the kind of backup you trade for if your starter goes down before the trade deadline.  He is the kind of guy you put on your roster in the offseason and watch him through camp to see if the bears just somehow missed squeezing the talent out of him.

What a draft class of dud qbs.  Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Fields, Wilson.  Those guys will all be available as reclamation projects.  

[MKnight82]

Sm Darnold was traded for like 3 draft picks including a 2nd rounder. Josh Rosen was traded for a 2nd rounder. Fields is easily worth a 2nd and probably a late first or a 2nd plus a 3rd type value. 
 

I personally don’t want Fields though I don’t think he’s an nfl starter talent.