2024 Draft Debate and Discussion

[Sugashane]

7 hours ago, Docknstein11 said:

I’m also fully on the Maye>Williams train so tell me why I’m stupid for having this opinion. 

If the Bears are going to bring in Johnson I could see Maye being the top guy. He is better in-rhythm and as a timing thrower than Williams, but Williams can save more broken plays. Both have all the arm strength you need and then some. I'd be damn happy with either.  

Actually Harbaugh runs his offense more in Maye's favor too, different than when he ran the Kaep compensating offense in SF. So I could see him liking either. 

 

[Docknstein11]

2 hours ago, Sugashane said:

If the Bears are going to bring in Johnson I could see Maye being the top guy. He is better in-rhythm and as a timing thrower than Williams, but Williams can save more broken plays. Both have all the arm strength you need and then some. I'd be damn happy with either.  

Actually Harbaugh runs his offense more in Maye's favor too, different than when he ran the Kaep compensating offense in SF. So I could see him liking either. 

 

I feel like Caleb Williams is going to be a huge bust. Every day I want him to be our QB less and less. The reason I feel this way is I do not like that he seems to have diva qualities/lacks leadership and has similar weaknesses to Fields. He plays hero ball like Mahomes and there is only one Mahomes. Even Josh Allen who I thought at one point was near Mahomes level is coming back to earth playing that style. Obviously I don’t know anything and will probably be wrong.

Maye has grown on me quite a bit over the last few weeks. The more I read about Daniels the more I like him. Here’s a hot take. By the time the combine is over Daniels will be in the same group as Maye/Williams and no one will have any idea who the number 1 pick will be between the three until Roger announces the pick. He will be a Zach Wilson type riser however it will be warranted since he’s produced against great competition and is likely not a total ******. 

[Old Guy]

Looks like you guys are drafting 1st. Who is the selection or do you trade down and acquire a ton more picks for the next few drafts in addition to 2024. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Old Guy

[Epyon]

1 hour ago, Old Guy said:

Looks like you guys are drafting 1st. Who is the selection or do you trade down and acquire a ton more picks for the next few drafts in addition to 2024. 

If we pick #1 or #2, I'm extremely confident we're taking one of the two QBs..... if we pick #3, I'm extremely confident we take MHJ-WR.... picking 4th I'd probably bet on Fashanu-LT

As for trading down, Pay attention to how Fields performs during our next 4 games for your answer.... We play Detroit twice, an ascending Vikings squad that is playing way better than they should be, despite Dobbs being their QB1 right now, and the Browns, who probably have the league's best defense right now....   Basically this is our hardest 4 game stretch the entire year, and Fields' last chance to prove he can be "the guy" going forward....    Sink or swim, and if he turns 4 really strong games, even if we lose, we'll probably keep him next year and trade down from 1 (I think at pick 2, we'd just take MHJ -WR )

If I had to  bet which QB this team takes I'd say Maye.... but personally I still have Williams higher.

 

Also, hate to say it, but your Packers have also been miserable since our  week 1 one emBEARassment.  Our matchup at the end of the season may involve some of the worst football the world has ever seen as both teams try and potentially tank it out for the top QB.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Epyon

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

8 hours ago, Epyon said:

If we pick #1 or #2, I'm extremely confident we're taking one of the two QBs..... if we pick #3, I'm extremely confident we take MHJ-WR.... picking 4th I'd probably bet on Fashanu-LT

As for trading down, Pay attention to how Fields performs during our next 4 games for your answer.... We play Detroit twice, an ascending Vikings squad that is playing way better than they should be, despite Dobbs being their QB1 right now, and the Browns, who probably have the league's best defense right now....   Basically this is our hardest 4 game stretch the entire year, and Fields' last chance to prove he can be "the guy" going forward....    Sink or swim, and if he turns 4 really strong games, even if we lose, we'll probably keep him next year and trade down from 1 (I think at pick 2, we'd just take MHJ -WR )

I

 

Also, hate to say it, but your Packers have also been miserable since our  week 1 one emBEARassment.  Our matchup at the end of the season may involve some of the worst football the world has ever seen as both teams try and potentially tank it out for the top QB.

Agree with your assessment of the team and QB. Also agree/wake up in terror of week 18 when it's just everyone go full Peterman and all the receivers hands get greased before the game. 

[Old Guy]

8 hours ago, Epyon said:

If we pick #1 or #2, I'm extremely confident we're taking one of the two QBs..... if we pick #3, I'm extremely confident we take MHJ-WR.... picking 4th I'd probably bet on Fashanu-LT

As for trading down, Pay attention to how Fields performs during our next 4 games for your answer.... We play Detroit twice, an ascending Vikings squad that is playing way better than they should be, despite Dobbs being their QB1 right now, and the Browns, who probably have the league's best defense right now....   Basically this is our hardest 4 game stretch the entire year, and Fields' last chance to prove he can be "the guy" going forward....    Sink or swim, and if he turns 4 really strong games, even if we lose, we'll probably keep him next year and trade down from 1 (I think at pick 2, we'd just take MHJ -WR )

If I had to  bet which QB this team takes I'd say Maye.... but personally I still have Williams higher.

 

Also, hate to say it, but your Packers have also been miserable since our  week 1 one emBEARassment.  Our matchup at the end of the season may involve some of the worst football the world has ever seen as both teams try and potentially tank it out for the top QB.

Drake Maye scares me. I have no confidence in him. To me, Caleb Williams is the best QB in this draft, by far. MHJ might be the best player though. 

As for the Packers, we are a young team learning. Still need to get rid of our defensive coordinator and the young receivers and Love need to grow together. Four 1 score losses. Had a chance in all of those games and couldn't get it done. 

We've got a tough next three games so it will be interesting to see if we compete. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Old Guy

[Sugashane]

13 hours ago, Docknstein11 said:

I feel like Caleb Williams is going to be a huge bust. Every day I want him to be our QB less and less. The reason I feel this way is I do not like that he seems to have diva qualities/lacks leadership and has similar weaknesses to Fields. He plays hero ball like Mahomes and there is only one Mahomes. Even Josh Allen who I thought at one point was near Mahomes level is coming back to earth playing that style. Obviously I don’t know anything and will probably be wrong.

Maye has grown on me quite a bit over the last few weeks. The more I read about Daniels the more I like him. Here’s a hot take. By the time the combine is over Daniels will be in the same group as Maye/Williams and no one will have any idea who the number 1 pick will be between the three until Roger announces the pick. He will be a Zach Wilson type riser however it will be warranted since he’s produced against great competition and is likely not a total ******. 

My issues with Williams are all off-field, and are just more speculation at this point. I don't care for the crying thing, the writing "**** Utah" and stuff makes him seem like a dumbass, the rumor that he wants partial ownership is a joke (and seems like it would be illegal?), and apparently his father sounds like a closet LaVar Ball. The latter are speculations that I got from just topical reading, so they may be nothing. I was more annoyed with the "cuddle with my puppies" or whatever. That was just a personal annoyance of mine though. I much prefer the Kobe kind of attitude. 

But on the field the kids an absolute baller. I don't see a lack of leadership in regards to his teammates, they'll run through a wall for him. He is one of the few reasons USC is even relevant, because the defense is absolute trash and the OL sucks. On the field he has a ton of physical gifts, but still is a damn good passer from the pocket. When he is forced to go off-script, he absolutely deserves the Mahomes comp. That being said I would rather him reel it in and be an Aaron Rodgers on the field - a precision passer who still will gash you. And with a competent OL he may be able to be exactly that. With someone like Johnson or Harbaugh he isn't going to be forced to single handedly carry an offense. But I think it will be a bit of a grind as that adjustment gets made. Remember when people thought Mahomes was regressing because defenses were adjusting and using more shell and deep zones so he had to nickel and dime more? Williams will likely have the same kind of growth phases that get completely overblown. But on the field the guy 

Does he need to get the ball out faster? Yes. But he doesn't hold onto it nearly as bad as people seem to make it out to be. He bails the pocket too early, but that comes from a lack of trust in the OL to hold their blocks and WRs to get open. Honestly if he played from under center I think he would be getting hit on or before his 5th step in his dropback in almost half his snaps, the OL is just terrible. Now because Riley has used shotgun as a crutch he will have to get his timing down and footwork will need to improve, but that is a totally coachable thing. That's something 15 year vets should still be working on. But his ability to make precision throws, his feel for pressure, and ability to produce under pressure are things that I think are pretty much born with or without, and the kid has them in spades. 

I could see someone liking Maye more, but to me Williams is the best on-field talent. 

 

12 hours ago, Old Guy said:

Looks like you guys are drafting 1st. Who is the selection or do you trade down and acquire a ton more picks for the next few drafts in addition to 2024. 

If I'm the GM I've backed up the Brinks truck for 1- Ben Johnson, 2- Jim Harbaugh, or (smaller Brinks truck) 3- Bobby Slowik. If Poles stays, he stays, I get the full roster rebuild and intentions to tank. But there is zero chance I bring a rookie QB in with a dead fish HC only to have a new HC take him over after a year of being potentially incompetently coached up (like CHI did with Tru and Fields).

That coach will work with the top scouts and his QB coach to review the QBs, so they will see who fits their scheme. It would be Williams or Maye (my preference is Williams atm).  

Bears traded out of the 1.1 last year and if they get it again it was a stroke of luck. Can't count on getting a 3rd top pick so pick your QB. You'll utilize one pick on him rather than two firsts and some collateral pick(s) to move up to get one the next year. I'd rather grab the uber-talented guy and sit him for a year if you have doubts the OL and playcaller can protect him to any reasonable degree (which I don't believe improving from Whitehair and Patrick or Getsy's sporadic idiocy will be a tall order) than waste multiple picks to move on a guy because you're picking 10th or later. Look at what CAR gave to get Young. The math just doesn't make sense to pick the QB later for me. 

Honestly I'm not even sure I want to trade back with the second Bears pick to recoup for the 2nd sent for Sweat. The Bears have been able to get some core players already, and will have over $100 mil in cap space in 2024 prior to FA. Just go after the blue chip prospect at QB and get another dynamic potential stud early. MHJ and Fashanu are likely pipe dreams, so to me you're looking at a guy to catch (Bowers or Nabers) protect your franchise QB's blindside and have Jones kick inside (Mims, Latham or Alt), or someone to beat the hell out of the opposing QB (Latu, Verse, or Turner). So looking at those 8 prospects, knowing I already took Williams, and knowing Maye, Fashanu, and MHJ are all gone too I would trade no further back than to 12. I know some guys like McKinstry, Penix, Newton could easily pop into the top 10 but I'm getting one of those 8. 

[HuskieBear]

13 hours ago, Old Guy said:

Looks like you guys are drafting 1st. Who is the selection or do you trade down and acquire a ton more picks for the next few drafts in addition to 2024. 

gonna take 2 or less wins to draft in the top 2 and carolina already stole one against houston. they still have relatively winnable games against TEN, TB x 2, saints, packers, falcons.

if they do draft top 2, they take a QB. If they somehow draft 3 and qbs go top 2, they go MHJ

[dll2000]

15 hours ago, Old Guy said:

Looks like you guys are drafting 1st. Who is the selection or do you trade down and acquire a ton more picks for the next few drafts in addition to 2024. 

Maybe.  A lot of time between now and end of year.   I doubt we have anything close number 1 overall with our pick as we are trying to win games.

Other teams are going to go into hard tank mode now or soon.   Carolina isn't going to.  They will keep trying to win as best they can.

For me analysis has not changed since before year even started.

Assuming we have number 1 overall it depends on how Justin looks by end of year.

IF Justin looks like he has promise you trade the pick and load the team up.  That is ideal scenario.  

IF Justin looks like he is still struggling to grow and has not shown promise than you pick the best college QB.  You have to cut your losses and take the QB when you are top of a draft.  

 This is first year it has been fair to evaluate him.  And early in season his OL was in shambles. 

He has looked really good at times and really bad at times.  Probably more bad than good at this point if I am being honest.   

But there is still time and several games left. 

IF gun to my head I had to choose today I take the college QB.  But I don't have to do that and honestly I don't want to do that.   I love doing mock simulations where I get to trade down and take great players and still get another future 1st or 2nd added in.

 

  

 

 

[AZBearsFan]

8 hours ago, dll2000 said:

IF Justin looks like he has promise you trade the pick and load the team up.  That is ideal scenario.  

What’s enough “promise”? That’s the million dollar question here.

Say Fields continues at the same pace as he was on statistically for the next 7 games as he was through 5.5 games (he threw no passes in the 2nd half vs. MIN before getting hurt). That’s 218.4 ypg, 2 TD/gm and 1.1 INT/gm, plus 43.1 rush ypg. That gives him 1529 pass yards, 14 TDs and 7 INT over the last 7 games, plus 302 rush yards, and season totals of 2730 yards 25 TD 13 INT; 539 rush yards in 12.5 games.

That pace over 17 games is 3712 pass yards, 34 TD, 17 INT, plus 733 rush yards.

Is that enough? The INT are still too high but 34 pass TDs would’ve been 4th in the NFL in 2022 and tied for 8th in 2021. 6.8 TD% would lead the league. 4445 total yards is fully legit. It’s not all good. But it’s a lot of good IMO, and definitely growth. Enough that if you don’t have a shot at Williams or Maye you’re almost certainly going with him in 2024 even if you don’t pick up the 5YO. 

That’s where it gets difficult for me. I 100% get the appeal of the two top rookie QBs. Both are elite prospects. But, with Fields taking what would be a clear step in this scenario, not to elite QB but probably only cutting down on INTs away from it, is Ryan Poles THAT sure about the rookie QBs that he’d be willing to potentially trade Fields away right before he makes that next jump in consistency that puts him in that elite tier? As fans this decision is far easier for us than I think it would be for Poles. Whatever his decision in that scenario, that’s his legacy. Missing on the first real franchise QB for the Bears is bad. But having one mid development only to trade him away and have him actualize that elsewhere right after you discard them is significantly worse IMO unless Maye/Williams themselves become a mega star too (which is far from a given). 

[dll2000]

13 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

What’s enough “promise”? That’s the million dollar question here.

Say Fields continues at the same pace as he was on statistically for the next 7 games as he was through 5.5 games (he threw no passes in the 2nd half vs. MIN before getting hurt). That’s 218.4 ypg, 2 TD/gm and 1.1 INT/gm, plus 43.1 rush ypg. That gives him 1529 pass yards, 14 TDs and 7 INT over the last 7 games, plus 302 rush yards, and season totals of 2730 yards 25 TD 13 INT; 539 rush yards in 12.5 games.

That pace over 17 games is 3712 pass yards, 34 TD, 17 INT, plus 733 rush yards.

Is that enough? The INT are still too high but 34 pass TDs would’ve been 4th in the NFL in 2022 and tied for 8th in 2021. 6.8 TD% would lead the league. 4445 total yards is fully legit. It’s not all good. But it’s a lot of good IMO, and definitely growth. Enough that if you don’t have a shot at Williams or Maye you’re almost certainly going with him in 2024 even if you don’t pick up the 5YO. 

That’s where it gets difficult for me. I 100% get the appeal of the two top rookie QBs. Both are elite prospects. But, with Fields taking what would be a clear step in this scenario, not to elite QB but probably only cutting down on INTs away from it, is Ryan Poles THAT sure about the rookie QBs that he’d be willing to potentially trade Fields away right before he makes that next jump in consistency that puts him in that elite tier? As fans this decision is far easier for us than I think it would be for Poles. Whatever his decision in that scenario, that’s his legacy. Missing on the first real franchise QB for the Bears is bad. But having one mid development only to trade him away and have him actualize that elsewhere right after you discard them is significantly worse IMO unless Maye/Williams themselves become a mega star too (which is far from a given). 

It's going to be an eyeball test for me and not based on statistics.

As of today I draft a QB.   He needs to show me he has 'it' between the ears.  He has all the physical tools to be great.

I need to see if his processor chip has enough juice.   I want him to be more a passing point guard than a shooting point guard if you know what I mean.   More Jason Kidd/John Stockton than Allen Iverson.

 

 

 

 

[dll2000]

Just now, dll2000 said:

It's going to be an eyeball test for me and not based on statistics.

As of today I draft a QB.   He needs to show me he has 'it' between the ears.  He has all the physical tools to be great.

I need to see if his processor chip has enough juice.   I want him to be more a passing point guard than a shooting point guard if you know what I mean.   More Jason Kidd/John Stockton than Allen Iverson.

 

 

 

 

I feel like were I Field's coach I would already know which way I wanted to go.   But they spend 60 close hours together for a large portion of year.  That is very different ball game.

But from our vantage point we don't have the information and we never will.   We speculate with large gaps in our information.  

It's like me liking Josh McDaniels when we were speculating on new Bears coach before Flus.  I hear football people saying he is brilliant and knowledgeable in all the things.  I see tremendous work with a variety of limited QBs including lately with Mac Jones.  I see some really good offensive game plans in NE.   I see he is has been best of all NE OCs.

But I don't know the man.  I don't have access to those who do.  I can't interview him and spend time with him myself.

In hindsight he has obviously has some very big flaws with dealing with people when in total charge of an operation.  And his overall game management is goofy to say the least.

 

 

[Sugashane]

14 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

What’s enough “promise”? That’s the million dollar question here.

Say Fields continues at the same pace as he was on statistically for the next 7 games as he was through 5.5 games (he threw no passes in the 2nd half vs. MIN before getting hurt). That’s 218.4 ypg, 2 TD/gm and 1.1 INT/gm, plus 43.1 rush ypg. That gives him 1529 pass yards, 14 TDs and 7 INT over the last 7 games, plus 302 rush yards, and season totals of 2730 yards 25 TD 13 INT; 539 rush yards in 12.5 games.

That pace over 17 games is 3712 pass yards, 34 TD, 17 INT, plus 733 rush yards.

Is that enough? The INT are still too high but 34 pass TDs would’ve been 4th in the NFL in 2022 and tied for 8th in 2021. 6.8 TD% would lead the league. 4445 total yards is fully legit. It’s not all good. But it’s a lot of good IMO, and definitely growth. Enough that if you don’t have a shot at Williams or Maye you’re almost certainly going with him in 2024 even if you don’t pick up the 5YO. 

That’s where it gets difficult for me. I 100% get the appeal of the two top rookie QBs. Both are elite prospects. But, with Fields taking what would be a clear step in this scenario, not to elite QB but probably only cutting down on INTs away from it, is Ryan Poles THAT sure about the rookie QBs that he’d be willing to potentially trade Fields away right before he makes that next jump in consistency that puts him in that elite tier? As fans this decision is far easier for us than I think it would be for Poles. Whatever his decision in that scenario, that’s his legacy. Missing on the first real franchise QB for the Bears is bad. But having one mid development only to trade him away and have him actualize that elsewhere right after you discard them is significantly worse IMO unless Maye/Williams themselves become a mega star too (which is far from a given). 

On top of those numbers he also had 4 fumbles over the 5.5 games.  That's 12 fumbles per year on top of the 17 INTs. That's just too loose with the ball and while you will have the games that he blows you out of the water there are just as many that he will take you out of the game. It's like a running version of Favre, but not prime Favre. Also that would come out to 74 sacks in a season with his 13% sack percentage. 

If I get THAT Fields then I know I have a shot to make a trade with him, and will get a good return. I take it. You won't get a 1st obviously, but someone will throw a 3rd at for him that may even become a conditional 2nd if metrics are met (unlikely but potentially there). 

Those stats aren't a huge issue for a guy on a rookie deal, but that isn't something you can tie a major contract hit to. Giants already made that mistake in overpaying Jones. And you aren't seeing any real progression as a passer over his career. Getting away from Nagy and getting offseason reps was the reason for his production jump from rookie to sophomore year IMO.  He has had one explosive game that has made his TD% look better this year but his INT% is consistent, his completion percentage, YAC, and Y/A have all had small jumps but I believe that is more due to having Moore as a crutch. 

[Epyon]

Fields also has an abysmal sack rate, fwiw..... While those aren't turnovers on their own, our offense is so inconsistent that we don't really recover we get pushed backwards.

[Sugashane]

4 hours ago, Epyon said:

Fields also has an abysmal sack rate, fwiw..... While those aren't turnovers on their own, our offense is so inconsistent that we don't really recover we get pushed backwards.

Fields actually has a higher sack rate than David Carr. Just crazy to think about.