Week 12 GDT : CLE @ DEN

[broncos67]

Let's keep this GDT train rolling! Hard to believe we're at 4 in a row now. I will gladly claim I am the good luck charm for the Broncos. What other explanation could there be? Another big game this week with playoff seeding implications for a Broncos team suddenly in the thick of things. I'd love nothing more than a birthday victory from the Broncos this week (always a good gift).

I'm a bit torn on how I think this game goes. If we were in Cleveland, I'd say there's no chance in hell we win. Being at home, with DTR starting for the Browns makes this a toss-up IMO. The Browns defense and run game is going to pose a massive issue for us, but I don't know that they'll be able to get much of anything through the air. I expect Jerome Ford to have a big game. I'm fully prepared for this to be an ugly, ugly low scoring game. I would absolutely love to see Denver get the ball in the hands of our more dynamic guys (Mims, McLaughlin) and try to keep Cleveland semi-honest. 

Since it's at home and we seem to have some luck on our side at the moment, I'll go with a 16-13 Broncos win on a Lutz FG to win it.

[Broncofan]

I mean, at this stage, we know the score - if we get a 2+ TO margin, 95% of those teams win.   We've enjoyed 4+, 3+ & 5+ in our last 3 wins.    GB I'd argue the teams were similar talents, but we were 1+ (which again gives a 75% edge there).   

CLE's D is near-elite - the only flaw in their armor is their run D can get worn down (but is pretty stout if you don't keep them on the field for 35+ mins a game).   At home, this is huge.     If we want any chance to win the game, we'll need to be great in the run game, because their pass D is pretty special.    Myles Garrett is a terror, but they've got DL depth throughout, and ballhawks in the secondary.    As good as KC's D has been, I'd argue CLE's D is far better (esp when you realize how much of a jackpot the O has put them in for many games - Watson's bum shoulder and PJ Walker has had the O in severe dysfunction almost all season long, since Week 3).

On the flip side, if a healthy Deshaun Watson was playing, we'd be in serious trouble.  But it's not Watson, but rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) playing.   Now, he's a guy who really should be learning from the bench year 1 - but he's got some pretty impressive tools.   He's just nowhere near NFL-ready in reading D's.   So our D could bait him into TO-worthy plays....if we put them into consistent passing situations.  Here's the thing though - CLE commits to the run in a big way.    They will run the ball 30x a game, with both Ford & Hunt.   And even though it's not Nick Chubb (we'd absolutely be dead in the water if he was playing lol), their RB's can both catch the ball, which we say last night was an issue.    David Njoku could have a massive game as well, given our RB/TE pass D is still so porous.

I expect Kareem Jackson will not be playing for us next week, so hopefully PJ Locke is back.  If not, then Turner-Yell becomes the focus.  I expect PS2 will take on Cooper, so Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman (if they try to stretch the field) and Njoku/RB's are the focal point.

Same story as last 2 weeks - if we are in a TO-neutral game, we're losing.   If we get it to 2+....then we've seen what happens.   CLE's D is better than anyone we've faced this year, and they commit to the run more than any team we've seen...so yeah, tough road.   Then again, I'd have said @broncos67 would have been done creating GDT's 3 weeks ago (+4, +5 & +3 in TO's will do that though lol).  

Edited November 20, 2023 by Broncofan

[The Helicopter]

I’ll keep being pessimistic. Cleveland’s defense is going to make our offense look more abysmal than it already does. We’ll be lucky to score on offense. The only hope we have for a win is special teams and/or defensive points.

[Broncofan]

 

I wouldn’t expect Jackson will be playing next week. 

 

 

[1234567]

14 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

I wouldn’t expect Jackson will be playing next week. 

 

 

Lol at this point it’s pretty obvious that Kareem doesn’t give a rats *** about the league’s tackling rules. This is all but certain to be his last season and he’s not gonna change a thing about his playing style. He’s one of the last remnants of a dead era when men played this sport violently. I do wish he would at least keep himself available until some of our depth behind him is a bit healthier. 

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, 1234567 said:

Lol at this point it’s pretty obvious that Kareem doesn’t give a rats *** about the league’s tackling rules. This is all but certain to be his last season and he’s not gonna change a thing about his playing style. He’s one of the last remnants of a dead era when men played this sport violently. I do wish he would at least keep himself available until some of our depth behind him is a bit healthier. 

Given it took all of 3 plays to repeat a season-ending suspension isn’t out of the question.   Frankly it’s as much to protect him as it is others.   That’s a Ryan Shazier like impact.   

Edited November 20, 2023 by Broncofan

[1234567]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Given it took all of 3 plays to repeat a season-ending suspension isn’t out of the question.   Frankly it’s as much to protect him as it is others.   That’s a Ryan Shazier like impact.   

Yeah I’m expecting at minimum of 5. You know, it’s interesting. As many safeties as there were who used to hit people this way all the time, I’m surprised we didn’t see more Shazier type injuries. There’s been a few for sure, but not as many as one would expect. The disks in my neck hurt just from watching that. 

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, 1234567 said:

Yeah I’m expecting at minimum of 5. You know, it’s interesting. As many safeties as there were who used to hit people this way all the time, I’m surprised we didn’t see more Shazier type injuries. There’s been a few for sure, but not as many as one would expect. The disks in my neck hurt just from watching that. 

My theory is players back then weren’t as big and also had more flexibility.  So less mass and more ability to diffuse the transmitted energy = lower impact overall even though they played more violently.   

Edited November 20, 2023 by Broncofan

[grizmo78]

These next two games are huge for our chances to make the playoffs. We already own the tiebreaker against Buffalo, if we can get a win in these next two weeks we should be in the drivers seat for a wild card.

This game ultimately is going to come down to whether we can stop the run or not. Forcing the Browns offense to throw 40+ times again like they did this past week would set us up really well given how our secondary has been playing, their back up QB playing, and the fact we have home field advantage. Hopefully our offense can get something going to give us a chance but likely we'll need the turnover train to continue as this is one of the best defenses we'll face all year. 

[BroncoBruin]

I mean who the hell knows what we’ll get from this mess of a game. We need good coaching, good special teams and some turnovers and we will have a great shot. DTR will give this team a couple INT opportunities. Do not let Cleveland’s DL wreck the game. 

[AKRNA]

8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

My theory is players back then weren’t as big and also had more flexibility.  So less mass and more ability to diffuse the transmitted energy = lower impact overall even though they played more violently.   

I think that probably holds true for DL and LB, not much for DB's. Louis Wright was about 6'2", 200. Billy Thompson was about the same and he played half a century ago. Mel Blount, 6'3" 205 also back in 1970. 

DL though is quite different. 260 and 270 pound guys were the norm with 300 pounders being almost non-existent. 

Size and speed for DB's seems to be fairly consistent. Whats missing is the violence. 

 

[AKRNA]

9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Given it took all of 3 plays to repeat a season-ending suspension isn’t out of the question.   Frankly it’s as much to protect him as it is others.   That’s a Ryan Shazier like impact.   

Just saw the suspension is 4 games. Jackson is appealing.

[Cutler06]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

Just saw the suspension is 4 games. Jackson is appealing.

Repeat offender who just came off a suspension. Best case is down to 3 games, even then I kinda doubt he wins

[MontanaBronco]

I have a weird feeling that the offense puts it together this week. I think Payton is slowly working out kinks and for some reason my gut says they put together some impressive drives this week. Why I think that will happen against likely the best defense we have played this year, not entirely sure. 

I also think Perine sees a heavier load this week. I think Payton is desperate for somebody a little more dynamic in the pass game. Javonte eye test wise seems like he's lost a bit of explosiveness/wiggle to me.

 

 

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

DTR is the reason we have a legit shot this week. He threw 3 picks against the ravens and though only 1 pick against the Steelers at least 3 other throws were “interceptable.” I think he gifts Denver 2 picks on Sunday. Given Denver’s O that’s 6 points. Given the way our D is playing the last 3 games (the data set I use has a 3 game breakout) that’s 3.2 points prevented (Denver has been giving up 1.6 pts/drive).

a 9 point swing in what should be a 14-17 game?
 

Broncos. 17-14 lol

Edited November 22, 2023 by broncos_fan _from _uk