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NFC Playoff Picture - ONE Week Left

packfanfb

By packfanfb
in Green Bay Packers

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Pugger

Pugger

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Posted
5 hours ago, packfanfb said:

Two weeks left. Packers need to win out and need 1 loss from 2 of 3 teams.

Packers (7-8): 

@ Vikings (7-8)

Bears (6-9)

 

Seahawks (8-7):

Steelers (8-7)

@ Cardinals (3-12)

 

Rams (8-7):

@ Giants (5-9)

@ Niners (11-3)

 

Falcons (7-8)

@ Bears (6-9)

@ Saints (7-8)

 

Packers need one loss from two of these teams. Falcons will likely lose at least one of their final two road games. The Seahawks will be favored to win out. That could leave the Rams at the Niners in week 18 as our best chance. If we are still alive, we'll need the Niners to need that game.

Of course the Niners might love to squelch any chance for the Rams.  

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Mazrimiv

Mazrimiv

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Posted (edited)

I don't see SEA losing to PIT at home next week, or to ARI in week 18.  ATL seems likely to take a loss in at least one of their two remaining road games vs CHI/NOR, so that basically leaves the Rams as the team to worry about.

If GB can win out (that's a big "if"), the Packers playoff chances will likely hinge on whether SF has a reason to play its starters deep into the week 18 game vs the Rams.  A BAL win tonight vs SF would help that cause considerably.

There are more complex scenarios possible, but the gist of what GB needs is getting one more loss from 2 of these 3 teams: ATL, LAR, SEA

Edited by Mazrimiv
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{Family Ghost}

{Family Ghost}

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Mazrimiv said:

I don't see SEA losing to PIT at home next week, or to ARI in week 18.  ATL seems likely to take a loss in at least one of their two remaining road games vs CHI/NOR, so that basically leaves the Rams as the team to worry about.

If GB can win out (that's a big "if"), the Packers playoff chances will likely hinge on whether SF has a reason to play its starters deep into the week 18 game vs the Rams.  A BAL win tonight vs SF would help that cause considerably.

There are more complex scenarios possible, but the gist of what GB needs is getting one more loss from 2 of these 3 teams: ATL, LAR, SEA

The NFL is random and these mediocre teams, us included, can lose against anybody.  I'm hoping to get by Minny and then have a truly meaningful game in week 17.  If it's not meant to be then it's not meant to be.

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packfanfb

packfanfb

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1 hour ago, Mazrimiv said:

I don't see SEA losing to PIT at home next week, or to ARI in week 18.  ATL seems likely to take a loss in at least one of their two remaining road games vs CHI/NOR, so that basically leaves the Rams as the team to worry about.

If GB can win out (that's a big "if"), the Packers playoff chances will likely hinge on whether SF has a reason to play its starters deep into the week 18 game vs the Rams.  A BAL win tonight vs SF would help that cause considerably.

There are more complex scenarios possible, but the gist of what GB needs is getting one more loss from 2 of these 3 teams: ATL, LAR, SEA

That Drew Lock comeback against the Eagles looms large (assuming GB takes care of its business which is a big if anyways).

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Mazrimiv

Mazrimiv

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9 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

That Drew Lock comeback against the Eagles looms large (assuming GB takes care of its business which is a big if anyways).

The predictive models still have GB at over 90% to make the playoffs if they win out, so GB just needs to focus on winning.  If GB wins out and doesn't make the playoffs, I'll be disappointed, but won't be overly upset about it.

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squire12

squire12

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1 minute ago, Mazrimiv said:

The predictive models still have GB at over 90% to make the playoffs if they win out, so GB just needs to focus on winning.  If GB wins out and doesn't make the playoffs, I'll be disappointed, but won't be overly upset about it.

Those predictive models are heavily based on the SF vs LAR matchup. 

GB has to get 1 loss from either Seattle or LAR

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packfanfb

packfanfb

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Big win by the Ravens last night. The most direct path for the Packers to make the playoffs is now clear: 

Week 17: 

Packers beat Vikings

Bears beat Falcons (taking ATL out of the picture)

Week 18: 

Packers beat Bears

Niners beat Rams

Packers claim No. 7 seed and earn a trip to Philly, Dallas or Detroit. 

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squire12

squire12

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6 minutes ago, LacyIsGood said:

I keep seeing, and ran in the NYT simulator, that if the Packers and Falcons win out, but the Rams lose to the 49ers, the Packers are in?  How does that work?

a 3 team tie with ATL, GB and LAR goes to series of tie breakers.  I think it is conference record would eliminate ATL and then it comes to head to head between LAR and GB

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LacyIsGood

LacyIsGood

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5 minutes ago, squire12 said:

a 3 team tie with ATL, GB and LAR goes to series of tie breakers.  I think it is conference record would eliminate ATL and then it comes to head to head between LAR and GB

Got it, thanks.  That works out nicely.  Still think ATL drops a game, but good to know it probably doesn’t matter

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