BDL 2023 Playoffs Week 2 - #6 New Orleans Jazz @ #1 Berlin Blitzkrieg

[RedGold]

BDL 2023 Playoffs Week 2

Match:  New Orleans Jazz @ Berlin Blitzkrieg

 Away Owner:   @WFLukic

Home Owner:    @Ragnarok

 Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[RedGold]

New Orleans

Offense:

QB: Josh Allen
RB: Derrick Henry 
WR: D.J. Moore
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
Slot WR: Deebo Samuel
TE/FB: Jake Ferguson
LT: Taylor Decker
LG: Joel Bitonio
OC: David Andrews
RG: Connor McGovern (Buf)
RT: Colton McKivitz

Bench:

RB2: Raheem Mostert
RB3: James Conner
WR4: Rashee Rice
WR5: Curtis Samuel
TE2: Dalton Schultz
TE3: Tyler Conklin
OL6: Cam Robinson
OL7: Greg Van Roten

Defense:

DE: Nick Bosa
DT: Christian Wilkins
DT: Roy Robertson-Harris
DE: Za'darius Smith
LB: DeMario Davis
LB: Anthony Walker Jr
CB: Stephon Gilmore
CB: James Bradberry
S: Tyrann Mathieu
S: Julian Love
Slot CB: Mike Hilton

Bench:

DE3: Tuli Tuipulotu
DE4: YaYa Diaby
INT3: Tyree Wilson
INT4: Kevin Strong
LB3: Josey Jewell
CB4: Deommodore Lenoir
CB5: Derion Kendrick
S3: Taylor Rapp

 

 

 

 

 

 

Berlin Blitzkrieg
QB – Jordan Love
RB – Tony Pollard
WR – Garrett Wilson
Slot – Brandon Aiyuk
WR – Drake London
TE – Dallas Goedert
LT – Tristan Wirfs
LG – Ben Powers
C – Drew Dalman
RG – Nate Davis
RT – Mike McGlinchey

RB – De’Von Achane
RB – Kenneth Gainwell
TE – Darnell Washington
WR – Jayden Reed
WR – Romeo Doubs
OL – Spencer Burford
OL – Robert Hainsey

DE – Trey Hendrickson
DT – Quinnen Williams
DT – Derrick Brown
DE – Samson Ebukam
LB – Terrel Bernard
LB – Jordyn Brooks
CB – Devon Witherspoon
CB – Benjamin St-Juste
CB – Christian Benford
SS – Antoine Winfield Jr
FS – Camryn Bynum

Edge 3 – Baron Browning
Edge 4 – Joe Tryon
INT 3 – Kurt Hinish
INT 4 – Mazi Smith
LB 3 – Tremaine Edmunds
CB 4 – Deonte Banks
CB 5 – D.J. Turner
S3 – Amani Hooker

Edited December 17, 2023 by RedGold

[RedGold]

New Orleans

Motivation:

Berlin beat us this year off a huge Stroud performance and without him available, the team will be low on confidence and wondering if they can win with their back-up. Our veteran team is built for the playoffs and is in a win now mode, with the hope that we can play the bigger moments better than Berlin’s young but talented team.
We also come into this match having faced Berlin in the BDL playoffs twice with two losses to them previously so we’re extremely motivated to finally get that win over them. 

Offense:

60% - 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB
30% - 4 WR 1 RB
10% - 2 TE 2 WR 1 RB

- Today the focus of our game plan will be to win it off the back of our passing game. That is the New Orleans identity - with some top tier offensive skill guys as one of the league’s premier QBs, it’s time for us to embrace that and to try and take advantage of one of the few more vulnerable parts, being the secondary, of an otherwise exceptional Berlin team.

Running game

- We’ll rotate Henry and Mostert at RB, with Deebo also getting about 10-20% of the snaps at RB. 
- Henry will be used on short yardage and in goal line situations primarily, while Deebo or Mostert will be the 3rd down / passing down backs. 
- Since there’ll be a heavier focus on the passing game, we’re going to use the run game more strategically where the box is emptied out and we’re able to take advantage of this space.
-A handful of designed runs / quick option reads for Allen (e.g. being in the gun and seeing the defensive alignment before audible to a draw).
- With Mostert, we definitely want to try and run some counters, and after that, play action. We believe Berlin will be trying to generate pressure and force Allen into errors, so we’ll use this approach in the run game, especially as misdirection and counter play could see them overcommit and leave them exposed at the second level. 
- We’ll also give Deebo a few carries to add some legitimacy to his snaps at RB as we did last week. 
- If Berlin lines up Browning on an edge, our plan will also be to try and pick him out on those snaps and try and wash him away. Our Tackles have both done a great job in the run game this year and we trust them to pave roads forward for Henry, Mostert, Allen and Deebo.
- Lastly, we plan on using some full back formations  for the first time in a while with Ferguson playing there as a lead blocker. Henry’s effectiveness will increase once he gets a head of steam and if he can crash into the second level at or beyond the LOS, we anticipate more broken tackles and big gains. 

Passing Game

- Berlin’s defense is stout on the DL but we’re ultimately not too worried about having Josh air it out as while Hendrickson and Williams are able to generate pressure and sacks, our OL is good enough to hold them at bay for long enough periods for Allen to either get the ball out or to make a play with his feet. 
- Slants and rub routes will be what we’ll do to get the ball into Samuel, Rice and Moore’s hands across the middle, while also throwing in some screens and quick outs. If Berlin start to sit linebackers and safeties in the middle, we'll then look for the guys going out and use Allen's arm strength to whip it in without the risk of being undercut.
- Motion will be a big part of the passing game and so will lining up Deebo in the backfield as the RB (along with 3 WRs in their WR positions). Deebo needs to be treated like a true running back, which if he then motions out, will create mismatch opportunities unless Berlinwants to go particularly light or safety heavy in the secondary. 
- We also expect Berlin may try to confuse us showing different coverage looks and alternating between zone and man, so our use of motion will be particularly important in this regard and we’ll Hopkins specifically tasked (and Allen made aware of this) to adjust his routes when we identify zone and specifically try and look for the softer spots at the intermediate level and near the sideline so Allen can zip the balls to him on the first read. 
- We’re also going to look for single coverage in man and try to target that WR, be it Deebo, Hopkins or Moore. We feel Berlin’s CBs, with the exception of Witherspoon (who may be coming into the match injured anyway) aren’t really formidable at this level and there’s a significant advantage for our WR group. So we’ll let our guys work in single coverage and have Allen hit the hot hand.
- We’ll also have Ferguson line up as an FB a fair bit for our play-action passing game. Him at FB will help establish the run and in-turn, our play action with him leaking on from FB when his there will give us another dimension and an extra check-down option for Allen, while having the potential for big gains with his YAC ability. 

Defense:

- Jordan Love is in for Berlin and while he doesn’t possess the same poise and precision that CJ Stroud has demonstrated thus far in his career, we’re not discounting Love’s playmaking abilities with a rocket arm and some great mobility. 
- We’re mainly going to rush four. Even with the loss of Jeffery Simmons, Wilkins still offers extremely high level play on the inside and Bosa in recent weeks has been playing as well as ever. Smith will play earlier downs on the edge, rotating with both Tuipulotu and Diaby, however Smith will kick inside on pass-rushing downs while one of the other edges comes in. 
- To mix things up we’re also introducing Tyree Wilson for the first time this season to play a limited number of snaps on the edge with the purpose of setting the edge and the majority of his snaps in the interior on passing downs with a license to bull-rush and collapse the pocket, something he’s shown he’s quite capable of doing.
- One thing we’re not discounting and we predict Berlin to do will be use Love as a runner, either on designed runs or have him scramble. That is why we’re going to have DeMario Davis as a QB spy and ensure he’s watching Love’s eyes and movements on every snap. 
- We’ll dial up the occasional blitz with Mathieu, Love, Davis or Hilton out of the slot being the blitzer, but otherwise we’ll play a pretty routine defense trusting our playmakers and vets to do their thing. 

Coverage:

We’re going with our usual cover 1 here, with Mathieu taking the deep safety duties. Davis will play a roaming role in closer to the LOS to take away the underneath while spying on Jordan Love, while Julian Love will be up closer to the LOS but taking coverage duty on the RB. 
In terms of coverage, it will be as follows:

Aiyuk - Gilmore
Wilson - Bradberry
London - Hilton
Goedert - Walker Jr.
Pollard - Love
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Berlin

Offense
TL;DR – Trust Love, have the run compliment the pass game, hold the linebackers.

Different QB, but our offense, scheme, and formations remain the same.  We are going to run our offense through Love and our WRs/TE and allow our run game to compliment the pass game.  Love will have full ability to audible at the LOS and switch the play depending on numbers in the box and what he sees pre-snap.  Dalman is back this week and will help Love in dictating pass protections at the line.  We will slide protection to McGlinchey's side if need be and trust the Wirfs/Powers side to hold up.

 

Running Game
Pollard and Achane will split snaps evenly.  We want to run plenty of stretch plays to allow Pollard and Achane to use their speed to either turn the corner, put their foot in the ground and get up field, or cut back against the grain.  With Dalman back and Simmons out for NOLA, we will run inside enough to keep the linebackers honest this week.  We will run a number of draws and screens to again hold the linebackers.  We want to force the linebackers for NOLA to pause the linebackers just enough to open up passing lanes.

 

Passing Game
We love our matchup in the slot of Aiyuk v Hilton.  If NOLA does not give Hilton help, we will target Aiyuk early and often, especially in the intermediate.  If NOLA tries to double Aiyuk, we will split him out wider to pull that extra body out of the box.  He will frequently motion across the formation to give Love some pre-snap information.  Garrett and Drake will be outside running every type of route, but if there isn't help over the top, we will give them chances to make explosive plays.  One of Goedert or the RB, most commonly Goedert, will also attack the middle of the field with the other providing a check-down option.

All of this being said, we will have plays where guys deviate from these typical roles to ensure the defense doesn’t get complacent.

3 WR – 70% - Garrett/Drake/Aiyuk/Goedert/RB – Our main set for the game.  We will attack the defense as described above.  There will be some plays where we split Goedert out to the same side as Aiyuk and Garrett.  Both Goedert and Aiyuk are excellent blockers, so we will throw a couple of WR screens to Garrett and see what develops.

2 RB – 5% - Garrett/Drake/Aiyuk/RB/RB – Both RBs will start out in the backfield.  They are going to do just about every motion you can think of.  One will split out wide while the other stays, one will go to the slot while the other stays, both will split out, both will stay in.  We will run and pass from here evenly with Love looking for the favorable matchup.

4 WR – 20% - Garrett/Drake/Aiyuk/Reed/RB – Spread offense that we will use a bit more regularly this week.  Love will be in shotgun here.  Reed will typically come in a jet sweep motion with the RB running a stretch motion the other direction behind it.  Either Reed will get it, the RB will get it, or it’ll be a playaction.  We want to give Reed opportunities against NOLA’s 4^th CB.  We will have a couple plays where we have a 3-by-1 with Aiyuk alone.  If they don’t double Aiyuk, we will give him a chance to make a play.  If they do, we will go to the trips side.

2 TE – 5% - Garrett/Aiyuk/Goedert/Darnell/RB – Short yardage and goalline set.  Goedert and Darnell provide the size inside and Garrett and Aiyuk have a chance to separate quickly.  If they load the box we throw, if they don’t, we run.  On a few plays, we will put both TEs on the same side of the line a few times to see if the defense adjusts accordingly.

 

Defense
TL;DR – Have Winfield up in the box, limit the run game, make Josh Allen be patient

We are going to use primarily Cover 3 Zone with some Cover 1 Man mixed in.  In both sets, our CBs will be in off coverage.  Winfield will be up in the box to give us numbers against the run.  We want to take away the run game and not give up the explosive play.  We will force Josh Allen to play small ball and string together underneath passes.  We think this will frustrate him and get him to force some throws which hopefully lead to turnovers.

Defensive Line
It is imperative that our guys maintain gap integrity to keep Allen from running around more than he already wants to.  We will rotate to keep guys fresh as need be with Browning and Hinish taking the majority of the sub snaps.

SS/LBers
In man coverage, Brooks will have the TE.  In both man and zone, Bernard will be sitting in the middle zone to take away crossers and spy Allen.  If Allen leaves the pocket, Bernard will mirror him.

Winfield will be up in the box to give us numbers against the run and will have the RB in man coverage.  If they keep the RB in to block, Winfield will come on a delayed blitz.

If they go two TE, Tremaine will come on the field for St-Juste and play the Allen spy role with Bernard taking the 2nd TE in coverage.

Cornerbacks
Witherspoon has Deebo.  St-Juste has Hopkins.  Benford has Moore.  We will have our guys follow the WRs.  If they try to stack or do trips, Witherspoon will be in a press position over the forward WR to blow that up.

If they go 2 RB, Witherspoon will stay on the field and take the 2^nd RB.

For their 4 WR sets, Deonte will come in for Jordyn and have the 4^th WR.

Free Safety
Bynum will be deep at all times to help defend against the deep ball. 

Edited December 17, 2023 by RedGold

[Scoundrel]

In this matchup one offense (NOLA) wants to do what the defense (Berlin) wants them to do. Always fun to see an area one team deems a strength and the other team deems their weakness. Makes sense to attack Josh Allen’s lack of patience and take away the deep stuff. However I do like the use of the slants and rub routes underneath which look like will be somewhat available if Allen sticks to the script… the question will be can he? Which Berlin is banking on that he can’t. Fun matchup between that offense and defense and with Henry basically being ineffective lately (Titans oline is cheeks though) it makes sense for NOLA to be more pass focused and take on some youth at the Berlin corner spot. I’ll read Berlin O vs NOLA D a bit later.  

[TedLavie]

New Orleans O vs Berlin D

I do think New Orleans struggles to get their running game going. Their strength is on the interior I feel but I don't think they can run on Q and Brown. Good thing they focused more on the pass. I do think Berlin counters well what NO sets up to do. New Orleans comes in with a lot of man concepts that will be less successful against a predominant zone cover 3. I do however think Hop has success. I love Deebo with the ball in his hands but Witherspoon is a good guy to defend him - assuming he's healthy. I do think even in zone, Berlin DBs can be beaten. And that may or may not be influenced by the fact that I just saw StJuste blow a zone assignment against the Rams this week for a TD - I don't know if that particular one is on him or Curl, but the fact remain that when your backline is three young inexperienced players playing zones, mishaps can happen. I do however like Berlin ends, especially Trey, a lot in this one. They'll put Allen under pressure - though Allen isn't the easiest QB to bring down for sure and he will find ways to make plays off script.

 

Berlin O vs New Orleans D

Dalman was out for Berlin, but I don't think it made much of a difference here.

I think, similarly to the other side actually, NO DL is better than Berlin OL but Berlin weapons are better than NO back 7. I do think the extra man in the box helps limit Berlin RB - I also don't love how Pollard or even Achane have been playing lately. But I think Rags made the right call focusing on Ayiuk. I really like him in this game, I think he gets things moving for Berlin. Berlin aggressiveness won't pay off every time as I think pressure will get to Love, leading to sacks and maybe a turnover or two. But I think they also get some big plays outside. 

 

 

I'll wait for tonight but if Witherspoon is ready to go, I'm going Berlin. I think they can bring more consistency on offense while NO has to rely more on Josh Allen doing special things over and over again.

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by TedLavie

[Ragnarok]

Ted is correct.  Dalman was active, but held in an emergency-only role due to his ankle injury and didn't play.

[Ragnarok]

With Devon Witherspoon out, Deonte takes his place shadowing Deebo.

[TedLavie]

Sorry Rags, but Witherspoon out means, for me, around 40-50 yards additional for Deebo and 1 TD or maybe 2 FGs. And that's enough in a close game.

NO 23 - Berlin 21

[bcb1213]

too many injuries take their toll here on Berlin.  That corner group is just not good and I don't think they can score enough to keep up

 

New Orleans 27-20

[Scoundrel]

I’m going Berlin at home 24-21. I like what they schemed to do here and think they can make up enough for some injuries throughout their team. Love has shown me enough that I think he can replace Stroud well enough here. I think McKivitz struggles a bit with the Berlin pass rush and Banks while he isn’t Spoon he has the size and speed to matchup well with Deebo. I do like the NOLA approach to go pass heavy. Henry shouldn’t be starting at this point imo. He set a record for most touches with fewest yards and while the titans oline isn’t good I see the Berlin interior having success against the right side of that line. 

[EaglesPeteC]

A full strength Berlin probably wins this one, but given the injuries especially to Stroud and Witherspoon, I gotta go NO. 

Awesome job Rags nailing this draft and turning your team around so fast.

[rackcs]

I think this game becomes a shootout and while I think Berlin has more success getting after the QB, I don't think their secondary will ultimately hold up against Allen and co. 

[SirA1]

Going with NO for the reasons others have stated. Injuries are the factor it seems this year.

[MD4L]

This has the feel of a high scoring game. Nola’s offense should have success with their pass first offense against a youthful secondary. Without much mention of a double team, I think DJ Moore has a huge game. The other weapons will get theirs but Moore should boom early and often.

I do think Berlin can occasionally get a stop. They have a big advantage in the trenches. I think Quinnen and Derrick can make some big plays whether in the redzone or causing havoc on a couple 3rd downs to get New Orleans off the field.

Conversly, Berlin’s offense should be able to keep pace. I don’t see Love feasting but he has really good weapons, a good game plan, and WRs that can make life difficult for a grown secondary.

Wilson and London have very winnable matchups and I’m not sure I trust Mathieu in deep zone without quality CB play. Even so, London winning jump balls v Hilton or Wilson getting open routinely vs Bradberry are realistic outcomes. With New Orleans dictating Davis to Love the runner and Berlin barely mentioning its usage of Love the runner, I think they one up them in that area.

Ultimately, I see a game where Nola jumps ahead early 10-0. I think Berlin’s DL can string a couple stops together all while Love starts to get it going. Think Berlin eventually retakes the lead 14-13 by halftime. Think both teams score in the 3rd to make it 21-21. In the fourth, I see both teams scoring multiple times and it goes to sudden death.

In extra quarters, I see both teams getting the ball and not scoring but Allen rallies on the final drive of the game leading NO to a 34-31 classic.

New Orleans bizz bowl bound.