2018 Draft Thread I

[candyman93]

22 minutes ago, Forge said:

Exactly. I've made my bias against big xii quarterbacks well known in here. Youve got Bradford, who i think would have been better than he is in different circumstances (and he's still okay when on the field) but thats about it.

Dalton doesnt count either because TCU wasn’t in the Big 12. The only other guy is Ryan Tannehill.

[Forge]

7 minutes ago, PapaShogun said:

So the big 12 collectively has a pact to recruit quarterbacks that are good enough for college and not the pros?

System, defenses, etc. The Big Xii has been pretty notorious with scheduling light  in the past with regards to out of conference (Oklahoma helped try to buck that trend by getting OSU home and home, but they routinely have some of the worst schedules in football - and I mean the big Xii, not Oklahoma in general). It's one of the reasons they keep getting screwed in the playoff voting. It's a wide open game. Their system pre-determines what their reads are- sometimes, they have no idea how to read a defense. Bryce Petty famously did not know what a Mike Linebacker was when he cam out....and I think he was senior. Mason Rudolph is putting up video game numbers against suspect defenses in a wide open game against inferior competition, but so did Brandon Doughty. I have yet to be impressed with anything Rudolph has done on the field - there are some nice things, for sure. He's got a nice touch and will throw into some windows, which is good. But his arm isn't a cannon, I don't know where is mental game is at, etc. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

System, defenses, etc. The Big Xii has been pretty notorious with scheduling light  in the past with regards to out of conference (Oklahoma helped try to buck that trend by getting OSU home and home, but they routinely have some of the worst schedules in football - and I mean the big Xii, not Oklahoma in general). It's one of the reasons they keep getting screwed in the playoff voting. It's a wide open game. Their system pre-determines what their reads are- sometimes, they have no idea how to read a defense. Bryce Petty famously did not know what a Mike Linebacker was when he cam out....and I think he was senior. Mason Rudolph is putting up video game numbers against suspect defenses in a wide open game against inferior competition, but so did Brandon Doughty. I have yet to be impressed with anything Rudolph has done on the field - there are some nice things, for sure. He's got a nice touch and will throw into some windows, which is good. But his arm isn't a cannon, I don't know where is mental game is at, etc. 

What about Andy Dalton? He came out of the big 12 right? He isn't terrible.

[Forge]

Just now, PapaShogun said:

What about Andy Dalton? He came out of the big 12 right? He isn't terrible.

See Candyman's post - TCU was not in the Big XII back then. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

See Candyman's post - TCU was not in the Big XII back then. 

Oh ok. So only since 2011 we are talking? Was there a drastic change in what was going on in the conference during the short tenure Dalton was there and left right when the Big 12 became the Big 12?

[Forge]

Just now, PapaShogun said:

Oh ok. So only since 2011 we are talking?

For traditional big XII quarterbacks, outside of Sam Bradford, I can't remember the last time we had one that was a legit starting quarterback in the NFL. I'm sure someone could help me out there.  But I mean, this is one of my own biases. Obviously, doesn't apply for anyone. I just typically don't love the guys that come of out of that system. I'm pretty open about it - I acknowledge that it's pretty arbitrary, but when I can't evaluate their mental game, that's a big issue for me. I wasn't a huge fan of Rudolph last year, and I've watched a couple of games this year, and I'm just not impressed. No progressive reads (well, there were a couple, but the results were pretty poor), largely sticks to one side of the field. I had a whole big post about it several pages back. I still have more games to watch which will come later. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

28 minutes ago, Forge said:

For traditional big XII quarterbacks, outside of Sam Bradford, I can't remember the last time we had one that was a legit starting quarterback in the NFL. I'm sure someone could help me out there.  But I mean, this is one of my own biases. Obviously, doesn't apply for anyone. I just typically don't love the guys that come of out of that system. I'm pretty open about it - I acknowledge that it's pretty arbitrary, but when I can't evaluate their mental game, that's a big issue for me. I wasn't a huge fan of Rudolph last year, and I've watched a couple of games this year, and I'm just not impressed. No progressive reads (well, there were a couple, but the results were pretty poor), largely sticks to one side of the field. I had a whole big post about it several pages back. I still have more games to watch which will come later. 

So...I guess you don't have much faith in Mahommes doing well in the pros then. 

[Forge]

Just now, PapaShogun said:

So...I guess you don't have much faith in Mahommes doing well in the pros then. 

Nope. Had a mid round grade on him. 

When some of these guys start turning it around and actually succeeding in the NFL, I'll re-evaluate. But TT guys in particular haven't never amounted to anything from Leach's system, and they were all pretty similar in college. Quarterbacks are fairly interchangeable in that system. Just look at Falk and his back up in Washington State (where Leach is now). His backup has looked just as impressive (if not more so at times). The difference with Mahomes is that he had far superior physical gifts than previous TT quarterbacks like Harrell. Will that translate? I don't know. We will see. But until one of them does, I'm willing to miss out on that one potential guy that may pan out. 

[48 1/2ers]

So do Mayfield and Davis Webb qualify as Big XII QB's? Coaching staffs/schemes at these schools change so often I dont think its fair to say all Big XII QB's are SOL. 

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, 48 1/2ers said:

So do Mayfield and Davis Webb qualify as Big XII QB's? Coaching staffs/schemes at these schools change so often I dont think its fair to say all Big XII QB's are SOL. 

Mayfield is...and I've admitted to liking him somewhat despite being in the big xii. Not as much as some, but I don't hate him, so there's that. The problem is that I think that his most reasonable comps are not ideal - you're looking at something like, a slightly more physically gifted Colt McCoy, or a less out of control Manziel. I've seen some people compare him to Wilson, but he certainly doesn't have Wilson's escape-ability, and I don't know that he's as strong mentally as Wilson was coming out. It helps that he had a really nice game against OSU this year (he was not good against OSU last year)

I was not a fan of Davis Webb at all last year, but he's not a big XII quarterback because he played at Cal. I admittedly have a bias against big 12 quarterbacks, but I also  have a bias against true  air raid quarterbacks (which is what Davis was).  I thought he was a 5th / 6th round guy. Really never understood the "he could be a first rounder" hype he started to get during the draft process. I wrote up a whole thing on why I disliked Webb last year on the old forum. That being said, Goff was an air raid guy, and obviously he looks much, much better this year than he did last year. So maybe he's the guy that finally hits. But nobody from an air raid system in college has worked out at the pro level as of yet. 

So I'll continue waiting for a big Xii quarterback and air raid system quarterback to prove me wrong. It's not like I take them off the board or anything, but I do ding them

[48 1/2ers]

Mayfield and Webb were both at Texas Tech in the air raid, plus Trubisky is from that system too. 

[N4L]

I think evaluating QBs based on the conference they play in is bologna. Just because previous QBs haven't had success doesn't mean the next guy won't. 

 

Its the nature vs nurture argument. Some of these failed big 12 qbs probably could have made it, if they had proper coaching etc. Some of them would never make it because they were never going to make it anyways, but the system they played throughout college made them look better than they ever were. 

 

With that said, I will pass on Baker Mayfield with our top two pick if I am Lynch

[Forge]

17 minutes ago, 48 1/2ers said:

Mayfield and Webb were both at Texas Tech in the air raid, plus Trubisky is from that system too. 

Yep, and like I said, I ding them all lol. Ask @Fureys49ers  I wasn't a fan of Trubs at all. Had serious concerns about his ability to throw into windows, his ability to go through progressions, etc etc. 

Already covered Webb - wasn't a fan. 

[Forge]

10 minutes ago, N4L said:

I think evaluating QBs based on the conference they play in is bologna. Just because previous QBs haven't had success doesn't mean the next guy won't. 

 

Its the nature vs nurture argument. Some of these failed big 12 qbs probably could have made it, if they had proper coaching etc. Some of them would never make it because they were never going to make it anyways, but the system they played throughout college made them look better than they ever were. 

 

With that said, I will pass on Baker Mayfield with our top two pick if I am Lynch

I'm willing to miss the one guy who hits until someone actually does. They just haven't worked. The most successful air raid quarterback could very well be Case Keenum. Let that sink in for a second. 

Big XII guys have flopped fairly consistently over the years. Again, I evaluate them all on a case by case basis, but if I have two guys graded out very similar and one plays in the pac and the other in the big 12, I may lean toward the former. But I'm not completely taking a big 12 quarterback on the board, I just don't like them as much. 

The bolded is a huge assumption that can't be proven, and the italicized is exactly my point. And it does that for all of them. 

I have a lot of arbitrary cut offs that I will readily acknowledge. I wouldn't ever draft a running back running over 4.7. If that means I miss out on the one guy that hits, so be it. They haven't worked at this level. I don't like pass rushers with crappy 3-cone times as an olb edge rusher. Again, will take the risk on the guy that will. 

[N4L]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

I'm willing to miss the one guy who hits until someone actually does. They just haven't worked. The most successful air raid quarterback could very well be Case Keenum. Let that sink in for a second. 

Big XII guys have flopped fairly consistently over the years. Again, I evaluate them all on a case by case basis, but if I have two guys graded out very similar and one plays in the pac and the other in the big 12, I may lean toward the former. But I'm not completely taking a big 12 quarterback on the board, I just don't like them as much. 

The bolded is a huge assumption that can't be proven, and the italicized is exactly my point. And it does that for all of them. 

I have a lot of arbitrary cut offs that I will readily acknowledge. I wouldn't ever draft a running back running over 4.7. If that means I miss out on the one guy that hits, so be it. They haven't worked at this level. I don't like pass rushers with crappy 3-cone times as an olb edge rusher. Again, will take the risk on the guy that will. 

The bolded is backed up by quantifiable data, whereas the conference a player comes from does not fall under the same category in my opinion. 

I am not advocating for any big 12 QB by any means, I am just saying that if you like a guy, you take him, even if other players from the same school haven't panned out. 

 

Another example is Darnold, people keep saying "USC quarterbacks never pan out in the NFL" but that is the type of bias that can lead people to pick and choose information that supports their opinion, rather than allowing the information to dictate their opinion. Big difference IMO 

 

The more I think about it, the more I hope that someone falls in love with one of these two QBs and that we can trade down 3-4 spots, put up an extra second this year and next, draft an edge rusher, and then take a qb in the second